An Excel Look at the Colts Cap Situation

by bbxxj on Jan 6, 2012 2:17 PM EST

I've seen some numbers thrown around about our cap situation and who we can and can't keep. I have my own ideas about who we should try hardest to keep around, namely Freeney and Mathis. I did some research on cap number calculations, last year's rookie contracts, expected franchise tag values at different positions and then stole some numbers off of Coltzilla's page (so major hat tip to him).

There are are million ways this postseason can play out. If Manning is released it doesn't matter what our cap will look like because we will have a ton of space available and will be rebuilding with cheaper contracts anyways. If we keep Manning and don't take Luck we will add a serious amount of cheap talent from trading down and so keeping a ton of high paid veterans wont be as important. The most important cap situation will be if we keep Manning and draft Luck. That is the situation I will look at.

After the jump is a list of all 53 players on a theoretical 2012 roster with both Manning and Luck. I am assuming a 125 million cap next year so someone alert me if that is way off. I also drafted theoretical players based on need and then gave them contracts comparable to players at their draft position last year. I put the franchise tag on Mathis, resigned Wayne, Tamme and Saturday, cut Clark, Addai and Bullet and left Freeney and Brackett alone. I feel that Mathis is the most important FA we have and would be well worth the 11 million likely franchise tag. Wayne should not be extremely expensive next year because of the flood of good FA wideouts and it will be important to keep at least one of Wayne/Garcon as a #1 guy. Saturday looked solid and healthy this year and if he is able to come back he should. Clark could be brought back for another 3-4 million but Tamme's '10 and his own '11 might have made him expendable. I love Addai but he just doesn't play enough to warrant his salary while Brown has developed enough to take his spot. I had a hard time finding Bullet's salary so there may be a cap hit with him if he had any bonus money. I also don't know how Collins is going to affect our 2012 cap if any. Anyone know?

If the below sheet proves true we could still be able to add a RG, CB, or WR in FA if we need and there is value there. For example we could sign either a guard or corner in FA and then draft the other at #33. Freeney may also be open to restructuring and extending his contract and therefore reducing his 2012 cap number by maybe 3-5 million. The same goes for Mathis to avoid the franchise tag.

This post is just an example of how we could go for it all next year. We would need a healthy Manning and offensive line and a great GM to find depth in the draft and cheap free agency. It would definitely take some good fortune and expert guidance but this roster is not a total lost cause.

If you see something blatantly wrong with my numbers please tell me and I'll do my best to correct it. Here they are after the jump:

			2012	2013	2014	2015
1	QB	Manning, Peyton	17,000,000	18,000,000	19,000,000	20,000,000
2	QB	Luck, Andrew	4,000,000	5,000,000	6,000,000	7,000,000
3	RB	Brown, Donald	1,880,000	1,920,000	UFA	UFA
4	RB	Carter, Delone	450,000	600,000	685,000	UFA
5	RB	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
6	RB	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
7	WR	Wayne, Reggie*	8,000,000	8,000,000	8,000,000	UFA
8	WR	Collie, Austin	674,389	UFA	UFA	UFA
9	WR	White, Blair	490,000	RFA	UFA	UFA
10	WR	Fifth Round	450,000	450,000	600,000	685,000
11	WR	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
12	TE	Tamme, Jacob*	2,000,000	2,000,000	UFA	UFA
13	TE	Eldridge, Brody	490,000	575,000	UFA	UFA
14	TE	Min FA (Clark)	4,110,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
15	TE/LS	Snow, Justin	890,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
16	LT	Castonzo, Anthony	2,000,000	2,000,000	2,000,000	UFA
17	LG	Reitz, Joe	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
18	C	Saturday, Jeff*	4,000,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
19	RG	Fourth Round	500,000	600,000	700,000	800,000
20	RT	Ijalana, Benjamin	1,361,000	1,361,000	1,361,000	UFA
21	OG/C	Comp Fourth	450,000	450,000	600,000	685,000
22	OG/C	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
23	OG/C	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
24	OT	Linkenbach, Jeff	490,000	RFA	UFA	UFA
25	OT	Tepper, Mike	450,000	600,000	UFA	UFA
26	RE	Freeney, Dwight	19,470,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
27	RE	Hughes, Jerry	2,370,000	2,605,000	2,830,000	UFA
28	RE	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
29	NT	Johnson, Antonio	1,750,000	1,750,000	UFA	UFA
30	NT	Mathews, Ricardo	490,000	575,000	UFA	UFA
31	DT	Moala, Fili	850,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
32	DT	Nevis, Drake	587,278	737,278	822,278	UFA
33	DT	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
34	LE	Mathis, Robert (FT)	11,000,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
35	LE	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
36	SAM	Min FA (Brackett)	7,650,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
37	SAM	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
38	MIKE	Angerer, Pat	635,000	6,500,000	6,600,000	UFA
39	MIKE	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
40	WILL	Conner, Kavell	490,000	575,000	UFA	UFA
41	WILL	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
42	CB	Powers, Jerraud	734,625	UFA	UFA	UFA
43	CB	Second Round	1,000,000	1,100,000	1,400,000	1,600,000
44	CB	Thomas, Kevin	490,000	575,000	UFA	UFA
45	CB	Rucker, Chris	475,418	625,418	710,418	UFA
46	CB	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
47	CB	Min FA	450,000	UFA	UFA	UFA
48	FS	Bethea, Antoine	5,025,000	4,550,000	UFA	UFA
49	FS	Lefeged, Joe	450,000	600,000	685,000	UFA
50	SS	Third Round	600,000	700,000	800,000	900,000
51	SS	Caldwell, David	490,000	RFA	UFA	UFA
52	P	McAfee, Pat	579,570	UFA	UFA	UFA
53	K	Vinatieri, Adam	3,900,000	3,900,000	UFA	UFA
		Total	115,022,280	66,348,696	52,793,696	31,670,000
		Cap	120,000,000	120,000,000	120,000,000	120,000,000
		Space	4,977,720	53,651,304	67,206,304	88,330,000

*denotes a new contract

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Comments

Why does tamme make more than Collie?

by ohsnap12 on Jan 6, 2012 4:01 PM EST reply actions

Tamme would be a FA contract. Collie is finishing a mid rounder first contract.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Jan 6, 2012 4:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

thanks!

by ohsnap12 on Jan 7, 2012 1:27 AM EST up reply actions

what happened to Gonzo?

by btr1313 on Jan 6, 2012 4:26 PM EST reply actions

Free agency, possibly brought back by the new GM as a cheap 450-600k FA.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Jan 6, 2012 4:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

#50 SS Third Round $30M over 4 years?

Is Ronnie Lott coming out of retirement?

by coltfan59 on Jan 6, 2012 8:03 PM EST reply actions

Just a typo

Fixed it.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Jan 6, 2012 9:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Not seeing Addai and Bullitt

I’m assuming that means they’ve been cut. There would need to be some cap hits figured in there. Also, Luck will only get a 4 year deal. That was part of the new CBA. Keeps teams from getting saddled with long term deals on busts. It’s one of the reasons trading this pick would be worth so much.

Currently, with Saturday, Wayne, Garcon, and Mathis all off of the roster, there is only just over $17 million available next season. Not sure how you managed to sign Mathis at 11, Wayne at 8, and Saturday at 4 while incurring cap hits for the guys you signed. Also, the cap is going to be right around the same $120 million as this year.

I agree with some of the other posters. I’ve heard that cutting Brackett will only save about $200k. That sucks this year, but it also takes him off the books for the next two. He has lost his job. Angerer was all over the field the second half of the season. He was a huge bright spot in this awful season. There’s no reason to bring back an injury riddled player who lost his job, and force Angerer back outside where he’s not as good.

I agree that Bullitt, Clark, and Addai might also be cut or restructured. I could see Clark and Addai restructuring, since I’m not sure they would be heavily pursued by any other teams with how often they’ve been hurt the past few seasons.

Pretty solid job putting in some time on this. I was planning a similar post. I noticed that there is way too much that goes into the cap that can’t be found online, and there are way too many variables. I just hope Irsay brings in more cap gurus who can make miracles happen like in the past.

by PeytonTheManning on Jan 6, 2012 11:03 PM EST reply actions

Currently, with Saturday, Wayne, Garcon, and Mathis all off of the roster, there is only just over $17 million available next season. Not sure how you managed to sign Mathis at 11, Wayne at 8, and Saturday at 4 while incurring cap hits for the guys you signed.

What do you mean only $17 million left? What source is this because I would like to make this as accurate as I can. What do you mean incurring cap hits for the guys I sign? Signing counts agaisnt the cap but a cap hit comes from cutting someone early.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Jan 7, 2012 9:29 AM EST up reply actions

I meant cutting

I meant the cap hits for cutting players like Addai and Bullitt. Messed that up. Everybody who gets cut has their remaining bonus immediately count against the cap.

http://www.coltzilla.com/salary-cap/

There’s a pretty solid version of the cap picture.

by PeytonTheManning on Jan 7, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry, but crappie job. You are really

Overpaying Reggie.
Castonzo signed a 4 year 8 million contract, so how would he earn 9 in the next 3?
1/5th of Hughes’ SB most likely counts every year thx to new CBA.
Vinatieri doesn’t get 4 million a year, probably less than 2.
Where are the cap hits for cutting Clark, Addai, Bullitt???
Cutting Clark, then re-signing him? In what universe does such thing happen?

by Ty46 on Jan 7, 2012 8:22 AM EST reply actions

or crappy

by Ty46 on Jan 7, 2012 8:22 AM EST up reply actions

Oh, and market value for Tamme is at least 2 million a year, I think he can get even 3.

by Ty46 on Jan 7, 2012 8:26 AM EST up reply actions

Not a bid deal. I’ll change it to 2.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Jan 7, 2012 9:22 AM EST up reply actions

1. I did that on purpose. Its sort of a what can we maganage even if the contracts aren’t perfect. But even then some say what I gave him too little – who knows?

2. Fair enough. I saw 4/8 and a sgning bonus and thought the bonus was added to it. It was already added in so I’ll change it to 2 per.

3. He has two separate bonuses. Just missed one. Fixed.

4. The only place I could find Vinatieri’s info was Coltzilla. FInd me another source and I’ll change it.

5. Addai is not listed as having a signing bonus and would therefore not have a cap hit. I couldn’t find Bullitts numbers anywhere and I said in the post if I can find what the cap hit would be I would put it in there.

6. I didn’t cut then sign Clark. Whats listed is his cap hit plus the ammount to sign a cheap replacment. The same now goes for Brackett who I am cutting due to popular demand.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Jan 7, 2012 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

But Clark's cap number will be around 8 million

http://www.indystar.com/interactive/article/99999999/SPORTS03/110323018/?odyssey=mod|dnmiss|umbrella|1

Vinatieri’s 2011 cap number was 2.6.

by Ty46 on Jan 7, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

Edit

Changed some values, cut Brackett and reduced he cap to 120.

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Jan 7, 2012 9:33 AM EST reply actions

Good site

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/

Rotoworld has some contract numbers too.

by Ty46 on Jan 7, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions

Not bad, but I'd change a couple things

1. Keep Clark 1 more year. Cutting Clark costs $5.6M (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/dallas-clark/), which would only save us $1.7M. Clark is better than a $1.7M tight end, and he’s better than Tamme who you’re paying $2M to resign. So I would let Tamme go and just keep Clark another year.

2. Don’t cut Brackett. People who suggest that don’t consider salary cap. Cutting him saves us $200K, Brackett is much better than that. Need to keep him 1 more year and then cut him.

3. Should probably assume a $2M cap hit for cutting Addai/Bullitt. I know their bonuses are unknown, but I’d just assume they have some bonus money out there.

4. Let Wayne go and resign Garcon for 3 reasons. Garcon should cost around $5M/yr, and hence would be cheaper. Garcon is younger. And possession receivers are easier to replace than big play receivers (Wayne = possession receiver).

5. Use 3rd round pick to draft possession receiver like Dwight Jones or Juron Criner. Both are big and will be better in jump balls than Wayne too.

6. Sign SS in free agency. There will be a lot of solid SS’s hitting the market this year, and they are generally pretty cheap compared to other positions. Could get Abram Elam, Brodney Pool, or Sean Jones for $3M or less.

Hopefully we can sign Freeney to extension and lower his cap number $5M in 2012, then use that $5M to sign a good NT like Aubrayo Franklin. But can’t assume that, so lets just assume we’ll only sign 1 free agent SS.

We also need to burn a 5th or 6th rounder on a backup linebacker. We should have 3 solid starters, but no depth and we have to assume 1 guy will get hurt at that position.

by JPZ on Jan 7, 2012 7:38 PM EST reply actions

If you're keeping Brackett,

with Angerer/Wheeler/Conner you’re looking at those three, most likely, as starters. Then Brackett/Edds/Sims behind them. Not a bad back-up situation if all are kept.

I’d love to see an SS in FA. Good suggestion.

Also, I don’t know if I buy Garcon as a big play receiver. I think you have to target someone with playmaking ability if you’re letting Wayne go. Garcon is too spotty, not got good enough hands to be reliable. Even if that is an FA signing, we need someone who is consistent and can catch in all situations.

by AnotherWriter on Jan 7, 2012 9:08 PM EST up reply actions