THIS SEASON: 53-38*
LAST WEEK: 8-6
COLTS PREDICTIONS: 2-3
Another week of upsets and surprises - this has become the norm in the NFL. My 8-6 record was good enough to shoot me up to 8th place in my Pick 'em league (and yes there are more than 8 people playing... probably like a million or something) and good for the second best score of the week (one person got 9).
Some of the shockers this past weekend? Steelers sucked it up in Nashville, Patriots went to sleep in Seattle and the Bengals bent over in Cleveland - the same Browns we have to play this weekend.
The Colts laid an egg against the Jets this past week and it makes me nervous. The team is so beat up and weak against the run the Browns actually scare me (I can't believe I just typed that). Trent Richardson is licking his chops watching the tape from last Sunday and the Browns gameplan should be very similar.
The good news for the Colts is that only Donald Brown and Fili Moala have been ruled out to this point (everyone else is considered questionable) so there is a chance the team may be getting a bit healthier. Brandon Weeden isn't exactly playing great football for the Browns and he's prone to turning the ball over - he already has ten interceptions on the season. If the Colts can't get a turnover this week, it may not happen for awhile.
We will also continue with the movie quote trivia this week. Here's the deal - I've hidden a quote from one of my favorite movies within the rest of the article. If you spot it and mention it to me in a tweet, with the movie it comes from, you win a $50 Buffalo Wild Wings gift card.... easy enough? (You movie folks are going to have to step your game up for this one)
Here's why I'm a genius:
1) Rams @ Dolphins
What I said: "Sam Bradford hasn't looked all that good this season (not bad, just not #1 overall pick good) and the Dolphins defense is one of the best in the league. If you take away the loss to the Texans, their only two other losses came in overtime. I like the Dolphins here... follow me if you dare."
What happened: The Dolphins won the game and Sam Bradford doesn't throw a TD. Nailed it.
2) Lions @ Eagles
What I said: "I think the Lions find a way to win in Philly. I know, that's against the grain a bit - but really, what have the Eagles shown? I think the poop is about to hit the fan in the city of brotherly love. The Lions on the other hand have had an extra week to prepare and right the ship - I'm not selling stock in the Lions yet."
What happened: Not only did I call that the Lions would win, I nearly nailed the score. I predicted a 27-24 win and the Lions won 26-23. Also, I think it's fair to say the poop hit the fan this week in Philly with the firing of their defensive coordinator. You can't fake being this good.
3) Bills @ Cardinals
What I said: "The Cardinals burned me last week and I tend to hold a grudge. I think this is the week that it all begins to fall apart for the Cardinals and the Bills find a way to win on the road."
What happened: Ummm... exactly what I said. That's why I'm a genius. The Cardinals have begun to fall apart and the Bills found a way to win on the road... in overtime, but they found a way.
4) Giants @ 49ers
What I said: " Seems like just the kind of game Eli Manning and the Giants will find a way to win, doesn't it? The 49ers can't keep playing at that pace - it'd be unheard of in the NFL - and I think the Giants find a way to win in San Francisco... WRITE IT DOWN."
What happened: BOOM! The Giants dismantled a dominant-looking 49ers team on Sunday. Sometimes you just get a feeling - gotta trust the gut, Giants win.
Here's why I'm dumb:
1) Colts @ Jets
What I said: "The only way this game gets interesting is if the Colts allow big plays on special teams or turn the ball over. If the Colts do well in those two categories they will win the game."
What happened: Guess what? The Colts turned the ball over and allowed a big play (Tebow fake punt) on special teams and it wasn't close. Even when I'm wrong I'm right.
2) Steelers @ Titans
What I said: "This should be an easy one for them. The Titans haven't been able to do much this season and are giving up an average of over 36 points per game.... that's not a typo. This is just the kind of medicine the Steelers need after getting beat up a little last week against the Eagles. This is the lock of the week."
What happened: Oops. I think this has to be one of the classic 'looking ahead' moments for the Steelers. That's the only excuse I can muster.
3) Vikings @ Redskins
What I said: "I don't know why I like the Vikings so much... They seem to be riding a pretty decent hot streak and I think RG3 will be a little tentative this week after getting blown up last week."
What happened: RG3 sure was tentative running for 138 yards and two touchdowns (one of them being the one that put away the Vikings). Let's hope he's less tentative this week.
Before we get to the games, here are some other fearless predictions for Week 7:
- Andy Reid will use his bye week on a quest to find and fire San Andreas convinced it's at fault. (give it a second)
- Brandon Weeden outperforms fellow rookie Andrew Luck this Sunday and the Cleveland Plain Dealer approves the headline "Smokin' Weeden better than getting Lucky".
- Baltimore, overcome with grief at losing their most iconic player for the season (and perhaps his career), will rename their team the Baltimore Rayvens.
- The Chicago Bears will invite the Detroit Tigers (fresh off beating the Yankees and going to the World Series) to their game against the Lions. This will ensure that the stadium has Lions, Tigers and Bears... Oh my.
Cleveland Browns (1-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3)
I hate the term 'must win' but this may be must win game for the Colts. Early in the season all Colts fans circled this game on the schedule as a win and it has to end up that way. The Colts are flirting with being relevant in the wildcard conversation (maybe a long shot, but who knows?) and need to win to keep that talk and excitement about the team going.
There are a lot of reasons the Colts could lose. They haven't played a full 60 minutes yet - think about it. The Bears and Jets games were complete disasters, the Colts folded in the second halves against the Vikings and Jaguars and didn't show up for the first half against the Packers. They turn the ball over too much, can't take it away, can't run, can't stop the run and will be playing for the third straight week without their head coach.
All that and I still like them to win? You bet.
COLTS WIN 20-17
Seattle Seahawks (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
This one will decide early NFC west dominance. I think the Seahawks are running out of luck and late game magic. The 49ers will be angry and ready to pounce. The only way the Seahawks stay close is if Russell Wilson plays mistake free football - that's a lot to ask of a rookie quarterback facing the 49ers defense.
49ERS WIN 27-17
Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3)
I've told you that I'm prone to hold a grudge and the Titans win last week hurt my picks. They'll pay for it this week on the road against the Bills. Watch for C.J. Spiller to run all over the Titans defense and Mario Williams to continue to come back from the dead (2 sacks last week).
BILLS WIN 27-21
Green Bay Packers (3-3) at St. Louis Rams (3-3)
The Rams were one of the feel good stories of the NFL in the early part of the season. No one expected much and Jeff Fisher's guys played hard and are off to their best starts in a LONG time. The Packers were one of the biggest disappointments in the early part of the season - and then they destroyed Houston on the road. How things have changed. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be too much for the Rams.
It's my lock of the week.
PACKERS WIN 34-14
Arizona Cardinals (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
You can almost hear each of these team's collective fan bases screaming 'We're relevant!' can't you? One of these teams will be 5-2 after this game (shocking still, isn't it?) and the other will be headed back towards mediocrity. I say go with the team that has the better running back (VIkings), playing at home (Vikings) and has the better quarterback (close.. but still the Vikings). Also, the Cardinals can't protect the passer and Jared Allen should have a field day.
VIKINGS WIN 34-13
Washington Redskins (3-3) at New York Giants (4-2)
Remember how I said last week that the 49er game seemed like one that Eli Manning and the Giants would win? This one feels like one that they'll lose - I don't know why. I'd probably regret picking the Redskins, so I won't do it - but I was thinking about it. This is a lot closer than it should be.
GIANTS WIN 27-24
New Orleans Saints (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)
The Saints seemed to come to life a little a few weeks ago. Here's hoping the bye week helped them get straightened out a bit. The Buccs are one of my least favorite teams in the league - they don't have anything or any player that gets me excited to watch them. I'll take the Saints.
SAINTS WIN 31-24
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-4)
These teams have been two of the biggest disappointments of the season so far. The Cowboys played well enough to win last week and still lost. I think the Cowboys win this week but it won't be easy - or pretty.
COWBOYS WIN 24-17
Baltimore Ravens (5-1) at Houston Texans (5-1)
This is the game of the week in my book. The Ravens defense hasn't looked the same over the last couple of weeks and they're giving up more yards rushing than they have in years. If Houston can run the ball they should win this game.
TEXANS WIN 27-17
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) at Oakland Raiders (1-4)
I almost didn't pick this game just to see if anyone would notice. These two teams seem like they are a long way from being competitive - I guess go by my old rule: Home team by a field goal. Works every time.
RAIDERS WIN 17-14
New York Jets (3-3) at New England Patriots (3-3)
It's a funny league, huh? Who would've thought that the Jets, and all their drama, would be tied with the mighty Patriots atop the AFC East and playing for the division lead? Say what you want about Rex Ryan but he is one of the best at getting under Grumpy Belicheck's skin. I think this one is close but the home team should win.
PATRIOTS WIN 31-24
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
The Steelers have won the last four meetings and will be trying to get rid of the bad taste in their mouths after the loss to the Titans. The Bengals looked lost on Sunday against the Browns and will need a huge game from Andy Dalton to pull this one off... Don't think it happens.
STEELERS WIN 23-17
Detroit Lions (2-3) at Chicago Bears (4-1)
The Bears actually come into this game a little underrated. They can pass, run,play excellent defense and Devin Hester is always a threat on special teams. The Lions can't seem to recapture the magic of last season and needed a lesser opponent to start to get their swagger back. Won't happen in Chicago.
BEARS WIN 27-17
Agree? Disagree? As always, comments are welcome! I will track my picks during the season and brag when I'm right (and pretend I was right when I'm wrong). Pick against me if you dare - remember, I'm a Predictificationist.
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