Thomas J. Russo-US PRESSWIRE
Predicting the NFL action before it happens isn't easy... unless you're a Predictificationist like me. Sit back, relax and know that you've come to the right place.
THIS SEASON: 65-39*
LAST WEEK: 12-1
COLTS PREDICTIONS: 3-3
Anyone remember a long time ago (way back after Week 3) when I was 23-25*? I vowed to get the Predictificationer fixed and... I've been 42-14 ever since. Not too shabby. (I don't know how to put this, but I'm kind of a big deal)
A pretty impressive week last week, if I do say so myself (ahem). 12-1 overall with winners and my picks were a solid 10-3 against the spread.... The funny thing is if Jim Harbaugh takes the safety at the end of the Seahawks game, the Bears don't allow the junk TD in the closing minutes against the Lions and the Bills stopped the Titans on their desperation fourth down touchdown, I'd have been a perfect 13-0 in both categories. But alas, even Predictificationers can't be perfect ALL the time (just most).
My movie quote trivia is sweeping the nation (well... a few people in the nation) and I've decided to keep it rolling. Congratulations to Isaac Adams (@eisenspud) for his speedy and correct response of "The Wizard of Oz" last week. The format is the same this week - find the movie quote(s) and be the first to send me a tweet with the quote(s) and the movie(s) and you win a $50 Buffalo Wild Wings gift card. Couldn't be simpler.... unless I just gave everyone a $50 gift card (which isn't happening). You may notice several (s)'s in the previous sentence. You're going to have to step your game up this week - multiple movie quotes are hidden in the article and you need them all to win. (Sorry, Isaac... one time per person. Let's spread the Bdubs around)
Let's recap this past week shall we? (you'll notice the 'Here's why I'm dumb section is VERY small)
Here's why I'm a genius:
1) Redskins @ Giants
What I said: "Remember how I said last week that the 49er game seemed like one that Eli Manning and the Giants would win? This one feels like one that they'll lose - I don't know why. I'd probably regret picking the Redskins, so I won't do it - but I was thinking about it. This is a lot closer than it should be."
What happened: This game was a lot closer than it should've been and the Giants almost found a way to lose. My score prediction was 27-24, Giants... it ended 27-23. Pow.
2) Steelers @ Bengals
What I said: " The Steelers have won the last four meetings and will be trying to get rid of the bad taste in their mouths after the loss to the Titans. The Bengals looked lost on Sunday against the Browns and will need a huge game from Andy Dalton to pull this one off... Don't think it happens."
What happened: Dalton completed just 14 passes for 105 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception - not enough to beat the Steelers. I said 23-17, Steelers.... it ended 24-17. Boom.
What I said: "This is the game of the week in my book. The Ravens defense hasn't looked the same over the last couple of weeks and they're giving up more yards rushing than they have in years. If Houston can run the ball they should win this game."
What happened: The Ravens defense wasn't the same. The Texans ran for 181 yards, 2 touchdowns and a 4.9 average. That wins in the NFL almost every time. Smack.
4) Cowboys @ Panthers
What I said: "These teams have been two of the biggest disappointments of the season so far. The Cowboys played well enough to win last week and still lost. I think the Cowboys win this week but it won't be easy - or pretty."
What happened: It was easy or pretty, that's for sure. Cowboys did win the ugly one 19-14. Whap.
5) Saints @ Buccaneers
What I said: "The Saints seemed to come to life a little a few weeks ago. Here's hoping the bye week helped them get straightened out a bit. The Buccs are one of my least favorite teams in the league - they don't have anything or any player that gets me excited to watch them. I'll take the Saints."
What happened: This game had a little controversy at the end but still ended up the way I predicted - Saints by a touchdown. Bam.
6) Jaguars @ Raiders
What I said: "I almost didn't pick this game just to see if anyone would notice. These two teams seem like they are a long way from being competitive - I guess go by my old rule: Home team by a field goal. Works every time."
What happened: It works everytime... Home team by a field goal in evenly matched games. Raiders won 26-23. Zonk.
Here's why I'm dumb:
1) Titans @ Bills
What I said: "I've told you that I'm prone to hold a grudge and the Titans win last week hurt my picks. They'll pay for it this week on the road against the Bills. Watch for C.J. Spiller to run all over the Titans defense and Mario Williams to continue to come back from the dead (2 sacks last week)."
What happened: If you thought I was holding a grudge last week against the Titans, wait for this week! Titans complete a miracle 4th down touchdown into solid coverage to ruin my perfect week. You'll get what's coming to you Titans. On a positive note, the Bills DID run all over the Titans defense (166 yards and 6.9 ypc)... so at least I was right about that.
Before we get to the games, here are some other fearless predictions for Week 8:
- During player introductions at Cleveland Browns Stadium the team will play 'Blinded by the Light' by Manfred Mann's Earth Band for WR Josh Gordon. QB Brandon Weeden will continue to walk out to Bob Marley.
- When Jay Cutler and Cam Newton meet at midfield after the game on Sunday it will be impossible to tell who won - both will look depressed.
- The Colts offense will be relying on a lot of 'Luck' this weekend in Tennessee. The defense may need help from higher 'Powers' to turn things around.
- Fans in London will run right past Tom Brady in an effort to see kickers Greg Zuerlein and Stephen Gostowski, more impressed by what they can do with the football.
Indianapolis Colts (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)
Line - Titans by 4
Andrew Luck has been dreadful on the road so far this season - He's completing just 50.8% of his passes with just 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions. He been sacked 7 times in two road games and is only averaging 1.5 rushing attempts per away game, compared to more than four at home. Fact is, Luck just isn't comfortable on the road yet and has been easily rattled.
The good news is the Colts get to play the Titans on the road this week - definitely easier than playing the Bears or the Jets defense. The team is also getting healthier and should be close to full strength by game time (we hope). Vontae Davis was good last week, Pat Angerer looked like the tackling monster we all remembered and if the defensive line gets Cory Redding and Robert Mathis (I know he is technically a LB) back, who knows... we may finally see what this defense was supposed to be. (OK, maybe not until Josh Chapman plays)
The Titans should give the Colts a heavy dose of Chris Johnson this week. Colts fans have to hope that we continue to see the CJ of first part of the season, not the guy who showed up last week. A little bit of mystery over who will start at QB for the Titans - everyone seems to think it's Matt Hasselbeck but Jake Locker may be healthy enough to take his job back.
I think the Colts win the game, overcoming their struggles on the road and finally getting healthy. It will be closer than we want it to be, though.
On a side note, fellow Stampede Blue writer Christopher Price and I will be heading out to watch the boys at LP Field this weekend... Don't let us down. We will either hit the road or fly with the team.... hmmm. Roads? Where we're going we don't need roads.
COLTS WIN 27-21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
Line - Vikings by 7
Great things can happen when a team starts to believe in themselves and the Vikings are starting to believe. Adrian Peterson gets stronger every week and Christian Ponder is getting some games under his belt. The Buccaneers thought they had a franchise quarterback in Josh Freeman just two seasons ago (25 TD, 6 INT) but he hasn't been the same since (27 TD, 27 INT). In a short week look for the Buccs to beat the spread but the Vikings to win the game.
VIKINGS WIN 27-24
Carolina Panthers (1-5) at Chicago Bears (5-1)
Line - Bears by 9
They should rename this the 'Crybaby Bowl'.... these two quarterbacks are two of my least favorites right now. The Bears are rolling and have a ton of confidence. The Panthers are frustrated, pointing fingers and firing people - but the Panthers are staying in games. Four of their losses were by a combined 17 points (Falcons, Seahawks, Cowboys and Buccaneers). I think the Bears win the game - but it won't be by 9 points.
BEARS WIN 24-17
San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (1-6)
Line - Chargers by 1
Phillip Rivers has been terrible lately and they Chargers are going to need a much better performance than they saw against Denver two weeks ago. The team isn't doing anything well - maybe they can rebound against the Browns. Cleveland has been in about every game this season and will give the Chargers all they can handle. At the end of the day the Chargers should win and cover the spread.
Chargers win 27-24
Seattle Seahawks (4-3) at Detroit Lions (2-4)
Line - Lions by 1
What a difference a year makes, huh? Matthew Stafford threw 41 touchdowns last year... this season he is on pace for 13. Calvin Johnson caught 16 touchdowns last year... this season he is on pace for 3.... Wow. The Seahawks haven't been able to take their show on the road yet, just 1-3 as the visitor. I think the Lions have one last good game in them - they win and cover the spread.
LIONS WIN 31-27
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)
Line - Packers by 13
How cruel are the football gods? The Jaguars - playing without Maurice Jones-Drew and most likely Blaine Gabbert - have to travel to Green Bay to play the surging Packers... not fair. There is no way this game is close or competitive. Take the Packers to cover and then some - it's the lock of the week.
PACKERS WIN 34-13
New England Patriots (4-3) vs. St. Louis Rams (3-4)
Line - Patriots by 7
The Rams are technically the home team but this game is being played in London. Games like this are hard to predict... The Patriots didn't play well after a long flight to Seattle and the Rams have a feisty defense that can get to Tom Brady a little bit. I can't pick against New England here but this game should be close.
PATRIOTS WIN 24-20
Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4)
Line - Jets by 1
The Dolphins, like the Colts, are a young team that struggles to win on the road. The Jets got a lot of confidence against the Colts and nearly upset the Patriots last week. Don't be swayed by the hype for the Dolphins and the mockery of the Jets - Jets win comfortably.
JETS WIN 27-17
Atlanta Falcons (6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)
Line - Eagles by 1
Do not readjust your computer screen - the Falcons return from their bye week as the only undefeated team in the NFL and are UNDERDOGS to the struggling Eagles. The Falcons do just about everything right and the Eagles have done just about everything wrong. Philadelphia is 3-3.... time to get busy livin' or get busy dyin'. I think they will die a little more this weekend - Falcons win and remain unbeaten.
FALCONS WIN 27-24
Washington Redskins (3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)
Line - Steelers by 5
Did you know that rookie quarterbacks are 1-16 against Dick LeBeau's defenses all time? I didn't either until I caught that stat somewhere this week. Makes it hard to pick Robert Griffin III and the Redskins, doesn't it? With the Ravens loss last week to the Texans the Steelers have a chance to get back in the hunt for the AFC North title... I don't expect them to let it slip by. Steelers win but Redskins beat the spread.
STEELERS WIN 26-23
Oakland Raiders (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
Line - Chiefs by 1
If the Chiefs are going to win another game this season, this may be it. The Raiders needed a fourth quarter miracle to win against lowly Jacksonville last week and rumor is that Carson Palmer isn't getting along with his offensive coordinator. The Chiefs have their own issues (too many to mention here) but one story that isn't getting a lot of press is the impressive performance of RB Jamaal Charles. Charles is on pace to rush for nearly 1,600 yards this season, leads the league in rushing yards per game and averages 5.9 ypc for his entire career! He gets my Comeback Player of the Year award... sorry, Peyton. Take the Chiefs to win at home.
CHIEFS WIN 24-17
New York Giants (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3)
Line - Giants by 1
The Cowboys and Giants always seem to play a close game. The Giants haven't lost both games in this series since 2007 - and even then they beat the Cowboys in the playoffs. The Cowboys didn't look like a team that is getting any closer to being a playoff team last week against Carolina and DeMarco Murray is still out - be smart and take the Giants.
GIANTS WIN 27-24
New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Denver Broncos (3-3)
Line - Broncos by 6
It's strange that no one seems to realize that Peyton Manning is on pace for his best statistical season since 2004 when he broke Dan Marino's single season touchdown record. Manning is on pace for 37 touchdowns and 11 interceptions - and sits at 3-3. The Saints are trying to fight there way out of an 0-4 hole and are just starting to see the light. I think this will be the best game of the week - lots of fireworks here.
BRONCOS WIN 34-31
San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-3)
Line - 49ers by 7
The Cardinals are slowly eroding from the playoff picture and rumor has it that Larry Fitzgerald wants out at the end of the season. The 49ers were able to rebound a little last week and should get more momentum with another win this week. 49ers should win and cover the spread.
49ERS WIN 27-17
Did you see the movie quotes? Be the first to hit me on Twitter for a $50 Buffalo Wild Wings gift card!
Agree? Disagree? As always, comments are welcome! I will track my picks during the season and brag when I'm right (and pretend I was right when I'm wrong). Pick against me if you dare - remember, I'm a Predictificationist.
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