49'ers (5-2) @ Cardinals (4-3)
Pick – Under (39)
Pick of the Week: FIVE STARS!!!
When picking the best spots for my followers, I typically like to stick with sides - giving them reason to understand why one team is superior to the other (taking the given line into play, of course). Tonight, playing the under seems just too obvious not to jump all over.
The San Francisco 49'ers (5-2) have had 10 days rest since their 13-6 win at home against the defensive-minded Seattle Seahawks (4-4); which was a sleeper if points is your forte. The 49'ers have only given up 9 points in their previous three wins - all coming from teams whose offensive productions rivals that of the home team Arizona Cardinals (4-3). Extra rest and a young, inexperienced starter at QB John Skelton (61.5 - QB Rating, 456 YDS, 3 INT's, 1 TD) for Arizona should do nothing but help and better motivate the NFL's 1st-ranked passing defense (173.4 YPG). Skelton was sacked seven times last week in the Cardinals third loss in as many games, while throwing 2 INT's in the process. Fact is, Skelton holds the NFL's worst interception percentage since November 6, throwing 17 INT's in only 349 passes.
In the same breath, one of the only thing the Cardinals have going for them is their defensive production, ranking 4th overall in the league by allowing only 191.3 passing yards-per-game. Niner's QB Alex Smith (93.9 - QB Rating, 1,427 YDS, 5 INT's, 9 TD's) is definitely not a deep-threat passer to give Arizona much to worry about, throwing for more than two touchdowns only once this season at home against a horrendous Buffalo secondary as well as being yet to garner a 100.0+ point QB Rating at all this season.
As long as Arizona can even somewhat slow the 49'ers running game lead by RB Frank Gore (103 ATT, 601 YDS, 4 TD's) tonight, the clock should continue to tick, keeping scoring to a minimum and leaving most of this primetime contest near midfield. Both teams being elite on defense and knowing the habits of one another far too well have this game screaming under. Book it. Bank it. Bang!
Just So Ya' Know:
- Under is 4-0-1 in 49ers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record
- Under is 3-0-1 in 49ers last 4 vs. NFC
- 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game
- Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as an underdog
- Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following a ATS loss