2012 NFL Week Ten: Inside The Colts Numbers

Mike Ehrmann

A well-balanced domination by the Colts last Thursday night, a great primetime debut from Andrew Luck, and the Colts are now two games clear of everyone else for a playoff spot.

We've had a few more days this weekend to let the 27-10 butt-kicking of the Jaguars by the Colts sink in, and it still feels pretty good to watch a Colts game and not have to be on the edge of your seat all the way until the end. It was the first time this year that the Colts jumped on an inferior team and kept them down all the way until the end. These are the games we used to see all the time, and it was great to have that feeling again, wasn't it?

It was the Colts fourth win in a row, something they last did back in 2010, when they won four straight to end the season 10-6. It improved the Colts to 6-3 on the season, a full two games up on the 7th seed in the AFC, which is a great position to be in. The Colts, as of now, hold the tiebreaker over the Steelers for the 5th seed, but at this point it doesn't matter the seed: the Playoffs are a very real possibility for the Colts in 2012. It's truly amazing.

Elias has a bunch of good nuggets from Thursday night:

  • Andrew Luck ran for two TDs, giving him five on the season, setting the Colts record for rushing TDs by a Quarterback. The previous record was held by Bert Jones in 1971, and Peyton Manning twice (2001 and 2006). Without looking, I'm betting all those Manning TDs are of the 1 and 2 yard variety.
  • Reggie Wayne had 8 catches for 96 yards, bringing his career totals against the Jaguars to 133 receptions, 1,856 yards and 6 TDs in 22 career games. It's the most receptions and receiving yards by one player against a team by any active player. Yep, he pretty much owns Jacksonville.
  • The Colts recorded four sacks on the night, which was the 37th straight game the Jaguars have given up a sack, the longest streak in the NFL since the 2005-08 Falcons.

How did the rest of the stats look? Let's take a look:

Non-Adjusted Stats for Week 10:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 78.8% 5 67.7% 11 Y N 5-2
ANPY/A 6.286 18 4.510 8 Y N 5-0
Turnovers 2 14 3 4 N N 7-0
Yds/Drive 39.89 5 30.64 17 N N 3-0
ToP/Drive 3:58.4 1 2:12.2 6 Y N 4-3
Yds/Play 5.523 13 5.349 13 N N 2-1
Orange Zone Eff 47.6% 21 35.7% 4 N N 6-0
First Downs/Drive 2.67 3 1.82 18 N N 2-3
3rd/4th Down 33.3% 16 16.7% 5 N N 3-1
Avg Start Pos 32.4 9 18.3 1 Y N 6-3
3 and Outs 0 1 5 10 Y N 4-0
RZ Eff 81.0% 8 71.4% 11 N N 7-1
Plays/Drive 7.222 2 5.727 20 N N 1-2
Penalty Yds / Play 0.615 7 1.825 2 Y N 6-2
RB Success 44.4% 12 18.2% 1 Y N 2-1
Yds/Carry 3.73 16 3.08 7 N N 3-3
Ranking - Week (28) 7 7 4
Ranking - Season (292) 60 40 20

Adjusted Stats for Week 10:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 75.5% 8 78.5% 25 Y N 5-2
ANPY/A 5.748 17 5.985 10 Y N 5-0
Turnovers 2.3 21 3.0 4 N N 7-0
Yds/Drive 34.43 5 39.29 26 N N 3-0
ToP/Drive 3:31.2 2 2:31.4 14 Y N 4-3
Yds/Play 5.395 15 6.448 25 N N 2-1
Orange Zone Eff 47.5% 21 40.4% 5 N N 6-0
First Downs/Drive 2.34 5 2.27 26 N N 2-3
3rd/4th Down 30.0% 16 27.7% 11 N N 3-1
Avg Start Pos 31.3 7 21.2 5 Y N 6-3
3 and Outs 0.7 1 3.2 21 Y N 4-0
RZ Eff 81.9% 13 65.4% 10 N N 7-1
Plays/Drive 6.492 5 6.332 24 N N 1-2
Penalty Yds / Play 0.605 7 1.631 2 Y N 6-2
RB Success 39.3% 19 22.1% 1 Y N 2-1
Yds/Carry 3.73 16 3.77 11 N N 3-3
Ranking - Week (28) 8 18 13
Ranking - Season (292) 113 135 103

Some thoughts:

  • It's amazing what happens when the Defense forces turnovers. The Colts doubled their season output Thursday night, and my Over 43 bet really could have used Darius Butler returning that second interception into the end zone. Damn the Jaguars for continuing to play. Butler also had the easy walk-in TD on an interception, and a fumble recovery on the sideline, which was nicely done to stay in bounds.
  • The absence of Maurice Jones-Drew certainly showed up in the stats, didn't it? 28.2% RB Success Rate was the best of the weekend, and the adjusted number of just over 22% was also #1. The Jaguars clearly didn't try to run the ball much, especially after getting down 17 points, but a great day by the Defense stopping the run.
  • They also stopped the pass fairly well, and a good chunk of those yards came in garbage time by Chad Henne, including the touchdown. Can't complain there.
  • Big improvements in the Orange and Red Zone, both ranking in the top 10. The Drive stats are a little disappointing though, and the only way they make sense is if they consistently were getting about 3-6 yards per play, but ending drives whenever they got to third down. I'm sure if you watch their All-22, you'll see a whole lot of 7 yard out routes.
  • As expected, the Offense moved the ball up and down the field, killing it on the drive stats. It's pretty sweet to see.
  • Turnovers killed a couple of scoring drives, one bad interception, and a fumble that we're used to seeing on the other side of the ball. Better they come in a game up three scores, but 27-10 could have been a whole lot worse for Jacksonville.
  • Along those same lines, still really struggling in the Orange Zone, as both turnovers occurred in there. The Red Zone is a bit better though, as they scored two TDs on three trips. Still lots of work to be done.

Season Stats through Week 10 (Adjusted):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 72.4% 8 Patriots 76.9% 31 Bears 51-10 0.836
ANPY/A 5.757 17 Broncos 7.345 29 Bears 71-5 0.934
Turnovers 1.72 16 Texans 0.68 31 Bears 59-12 0.831
Yds/Drive 33.69 7 Patriots 35.59 31 Bears 47-12 0.797
ToP/Drive 2:56.0 8 Steelers 2:53.0 27 Texans 54-18 0.750
Yds/Play 5.302 15 49ers 6.011 30 Broncos 43-16 0.729
Orange Zone Eff 44.7% 28 Saints 65.4% 31 Bears 56-13 0.812
First Downs/Drive 2.06 2 Patriots 2.04 32 Cardinals 42-20 0.677
3rd/4th Down 43.2% 9 Steelers 41.1% 22 Texans 46-20 0.697
Avg Start Pos 27.5 30 Bears 28.0 6 Patriots 53-17 0.757
3 and Outs 2.27 2 Patriots 3.07 26 Bears 45-17 0.726
RZ Eff 63.0% 17 Packers 77.7% 30 Bears 53-22 0.707
Plays/Drive 6.352 3 Patriots 5.993 30 Texans 39-22 0.639
Penalty Yds / Play 0.800 13 Falcons 1.324 1 Colts 45-23 0.662
RB Success 41.3% 22 Bills 45.3% 23 49ers 37-45 0.451
Yds/Carry 3.82 18 Bills 4.59 27 49ers 40-35 0.533
Overall 10 Patriots 31 Bears

A couple things:

  • The Offense sticks at #10, but they're getting closer to leading the league in a couple categories, including First Downs per Drive and Three and Outs, just behind next week's opponent, the Patriots, who happen to have the #1 overall Offense as well.
  • The Defense is still only in front of one team, the Bills, and we saw what the Patriots did to them this weekend. The Colts amazingly still lead the league in opponents penalty yards per play, but pretty much everything else is at the bottom of the league. The next three weeks they'll face top half of the league Offenses, so they'll get their chance to improve, or we'll see a couple of shootouts.

Week-to-Week Comparison:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Bears 214 180 242 96 218 158
2 Vikings 151 202 191 163 223 221
3 Jaguars 122 104 79 172 220 225
4 BYE
5 Packers 141 102 92 103 63 44
6 Jets 227 257 280 245 291 292
7 Browns 75 200 134 63 279 203
8 Titans 32 251 138 43 272 169
9 Dolphins 25 238 113 25 281 171
10 Jaguars 60 40 20 113 135 103

Finally some improvement from the Defense, as the Offense fell back a bit, mostly explained by playing a pretty bad Defense, and still having the same issues we've seen for weeks now, scoring points when they get deep into opponents territory. But it was the second best game played by the Colts this season, so lots to be optimistic about.

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