Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)
Pick – Colts (+2)
Rock Solid Pick: Four Stars (Out of Five)
When first capping this game, I figured the Indianapolis Colts (4-3) would be favored by 2 or 2.5 points, especially being at home. Imagine the shock on my face when I saw the line come out right on the money... just flipped, making the Miami Dolphins (4-3) a favorite!
The Colts are a decent football team, rebuilding year or not, as are the Dolphins. But, the main concern here is the number of points given up when determining the strengths versus weaknesses for each team. The Dolphins have a solid rushing attack (11th - 115.9 YPG) while the Colts weakness is definitely stopping the run (27th - 137.4 YPG).
On the flip-side of the equation, rookie QB Andrew Luck (74.6 QB Rating - 1,971 YDS, 8 INT's, 8 TD's) and Indianapolis' passing game is what will win this one outright, without the points. Indy's 9th-ranked passing offense is averaging 265.9 yards-per-game and is guaranteed to exploit Miami's atrociously 27th-ranked passing defense, giving up 281.0 yards-per-game through the air. Granted, the Dolphins have a great defensive line (2nd - 82.0 YPG), but when was the last time anyone saw the Colts win a game with their run game?! Luck avoids pressure like a champ and makes plays happen; not to mention having WR Reggie Wayne (54 REC, 757 YDS, 2 TD's) on the receiving end of most clutch receptions.
Dolphins starting QB Ryan Tannehill (75.8 QB Rating - 1,472 YDS, 6 INT's, 4 TD's) is banged up and will get the start, which only adds to the list of things shaping up in the Colts favor. Personally, I feel the Dolphins have a better shot at winning with backup Matt Moore (96.6 QB Rating - 131 YDS, 1 TD) under center, especially with Tannehill not being in one-hundred percent, but I guess that's why I'm not the head coach. Also, if WR Brian Hartline (33 REC, 555 YDS, 1 TD), who is listed as questionable due to a groin/hamstring injury, does get the nod to start, I think it's too soon and he won't make it all four quarters.
The Colts are a good team, especially at home... and when Head Coach Chuck Pagano shows his face in Lucas Oil Stadium today, that place will be insane and they'll definitely win one for him and his hardships alone. I know this team all too well.
Just So Ya’ Know:
- Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November
- Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings
- Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Indianapolis