Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)
Pick – Cowboys (+4.5)
Pick of the Week: Five Stars!!!
At first glance, one may think this game is a no-brainer for the undefeated Atlanta Falcons (7-0) to take off with a dominant victory over the disappointing Dallas Cowboys (3-4), especially at home. It's only upon deeper investigation that the "obvious choice" becomes far less clear than before. Let me preach to ya' for a minute...
Not to take anything away from the great season the Falcons have put together thus far, but all too much people see, to be focusing on the overall record - which is great for standings, but means nothing when betting ATS (against the spread). Atlanta starting QB Matt Ryan (103 QB Rating - 2,018 YDS, 6 INT's, 17 TD's) is definitely having an amazing season throwing the ball and leading his offense to wins with his defensive units stepping up in crunch time to seal the deal. But, in delving deeper into the equation, the Falcons are 3-0 at home - but, when you combine all three and total their winning margins together, you see that an average home victory comes by a mere 3.66 points. Two of those three wins coming against Carolina and Oakland, both games coming down to the wire, needed a little bit of talent, luck and prayer to pull out the "W". Now, Ryan must do the same, facing one of the top defensive secondaries in the league (3rd - 187.7 YPG) this time. A team far different from the likes of the Panthers, Raiders, Redskins, etc.
What many forget is that, aside from turning the ball over in crucial situations, Cowboys QB Tony Romo (78.8 QB Rating - 2,073 YDS, 13 INT's, 9 TD's) leads the NFL's 3rd-ranked passing offense, currently averaging 297.3 yards-per-game. The fact remains, as people count the Cowboys out of contention, they still remain tied for 2nd with the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.
Look for Dallas to have their game faces on tonight, hungrier than Atlanta for a big win. With Romo (hopefully... for the love of God, HOPEFULLY) protecting the ball a bit more than usual - AKA, only 1 INT or so. Book it, kids!
Just So Ya’ Know:
- Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points
- Cowboys are 3-1 ATS away this season
- Falcons are 1-2 ATS home this season
- Cowboys last loss to Falcons was September 7, 2003