Stop the Gloom and Doom!

but I think it’s pretty obvious that Manning will be released before March 8th. He is not healthy and the financial risk is to great. The Luck era is upon us.

Peyton puts cheeks in the seats, but just as he does – so will the next QB. I hope Peyton is taking snaps from Jeff Saturday next season.

1. Sure … and NFL owners, execs, players etc. always tell the truth, right? They play the spin/pr games like everybody else. Also, Irsay wouldn’t even have to be lying. He could have been speaking from the perspective of “things being as they are now” or “if things go the way that I plan/hope.” Bottom line: Irsay is an NFL owner, making a profit as an NFL owner means cultivating good relations with the fans of your franchise, and a significant percentage of the franchise fans are Peyton Manning fans. Were Irsay to say anything other than “I want Manning to be our QB next year and retire as a Colt”, Colts (Manning) fans would tar and feather the guy. And keep in mind: Manning is playing the same game. Has Manning come out and said “I don’t want you to draft my replacement?” or “I REALLY want that $28 million dollar check whether I am healthy or not because I think that I deserve it”? Nope. Is that how he feels? You had better believe it.

2. See #1. The fellow is playing the game. It goes with the territory. And Manning is one of the best QBs in history at managing the fans – and influencing his own organization – using the media. Manning knows how effectively that he plays the media. Irsay also knows how effectively Manning plays the media, and also knows that Manning is much better at influencing the fans and the media – and is much more popular with both – than he is. In a way, Irsay feels like he is being held hostage by his own player on his own francise – and Jerry Reinsdorf, owner of the Chicago Bulls, felt similarly boxed in by Michael Jordan, who was also excellent at manipulating the media and fans – and probably just wants this to be over.

3. See #1. The fans would be furious at Irsay were he to admit that he is releasing Manning over any amount of money. Of course, these same fans don’t have the responsibility of turning a profit or managing the salary cap, and are perfectly willing to blame Irsay if paying the $28 million wrecks the team’s finances and roster for the next 4 years. Also, the issue isn’t the $28 million anyway. It is whether you choose the best interests of the franchise – getting a very good QB for the next 15 years – over the best interests of Manning and his fans. As Irsay wants to still be making money in 2020 when Manning has long since retired to the golf course and/or the broadcast booth (which will be the case whether he gets over this injury or not) it is a no-brainer which path he is going to take. Oh yes, and if the Colts stink in 2020 because he chose Manning over the franchise, these same fans who are now demanding that Irsay be loyal to Manning will rip and trash him for presiding over a terrible team. Who in 2020 is going to be buying tickets to see a David Carr or JaMarcus Russell at QB because they were grateful that Irsay chose to let Manning stay in Indianapolis until his contract ran out? Meanwhile, PLENTY of people will be buying tickets in 2020 if Andrew Luck is a Pro Bowl QB.

4. Paying salaries out of his own pocket is not the issue. The salary cap is.

5. If the salary cap weren’t an absolute limit, Jerry Jones and Daniel Snyder would have bought Super Bowls like George Steinbrenner did long ago. My goodness … like the Colts wouldn’t have let all those good players go over the years if there wasn’t a hard salary cap. That is what I referenced in an earlier fanpost and in comments in other places: Manning fans are pretending as if Manning is the first player that the Colts have ever had to release due to injury/age/salary issues. It is as if Manning is the only guy that his fans actually care about, and all those other players are just chattel or something.

6. Excuse me, but who releases GOOD players FOR NO REASON? If a guy is healthy, can still play, and the Colts can afford to keep him without threatening the long term future of the franchise, why get rid of him? The problem is that this isn’t the case with Manning. Manning isn’t healthy, he only has 3-4 good years left, and keeping him would threaten the franchise’s ability to get the top prospect at the hardest position to fill in football since Manning himself was in the draft. Keeping Manning is totally different from keeping Pierre Garcon and Dwight Freeney.

7. Go to this link: http://www.stampedeblue.com/2012/1/31/2761072/are-you-colts-fans-or-manning-fans-seriously and choose the “Manning IS the Colts!” option, for it is obviously what you believe. Winning puts people in the seats. Winning creates revenue at home and on the road. Two years from now if the Colts are losing because Manning is like 60% of the player that he was in his prime and the team around him stinks, there won’t be people in the seats. Six years from now if the Colts are losing because Matt Cassel (or someone similar) is the QB, there won’t be anyone in the seats. But if the team is winning, and especially if Andrew Luck is a Pro Bowl QB, there will be people in the seats. Even if the Manning fans stay at home, someone else will gladly buy tickets in their place.

8. Reality check: if there is any team that Manning hates more than the Patriots (and the Florida Gators) it is the Steelers. Thus, hiring the OC of the guy who helped get Roethlisberger and the Steelers 2 Super Bowl rings (as position coach and then OC) … only hiring Josh McDaniels, Charlie Weis or Steve Spurrier could have been more alienating to Manning. Second, hiring Arians means that the Colts are going AWAY from the cerebral timing/finesse/outscheme and outstrategize the other team offense to something more like the Steelers run for Ben Roethlisberger. When you add it to the new GM and head coach, and Irsay’s own statements that he wants the team to be more physical … the Manning offense is gone. The new offense is going to be a lot more run-oriented, rely a lot more on play action, and … you do realize that there is probably no QB in the NFL that takes more hits than Roethlisberger does right? The hires that Irsay has made has me thinking that he is trying to build a franchise that is more similar to what Andrew Luck runs at Stanford, which emphasizes first and foremost power football on both sides of the line. Stanford has an outstanding run-blocking OL and they run a 3-4 defense with a great front seven. It is basically the same as the 49ers in the NFL this year, except that Luck is better than Alex Smith at QB. As Luck is much more mobile than Manning, he will do fine with pass protection being relatively de-emphasized. In particular, the “throw it away if no one gets open in 3 seconds” thing that Manning has done throughout his Indy career is gone, because a play-action based passing game requires the QB to hold onto the ball and either scramble away from pressure and take hits. What Arians will run in Indy is much more similar to what Eli Manning is running with the Giants than the Peyton Manning-Tom Moore scheme.

9. As I have stated earlier, if Manning wants to play his entire career as a Colt, it is up to him. He can either A) retire now or B) make it publicly known that he is willing to coexist with Andrew Luck for the next 3 seasons (after that it begins to get dicey) or until he wins another Super Bowl, whichever comes first. But the Colts aren’t going to risk not having a QB in 2016 in order to hold onto an injured, aging QB in 2012. Again, Luck is no sure thing, but as Luck is the best QB prospect to come out since Manning, it is relatively safe to presume that whoever the Colts will have to draft to replace Manning in 2016 won’t be nearly as good a prospect – as much of a “safe pick” – as Luck is.

And let me repeat: the very same people demanding that Irsay hold onto Manning today will trash the guy and refuse to buy tickets, merchandise etc. if the team isn’t competitive tomorrow. Don’t think that Irsay doesn’t know that, even if he can’t publicly admit it.