Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and the Salary Cap
by emiller17 on Feb 12, 2012 12:18 AM EST
in Colts Analysis
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PrintI know I haven't written anything in awhile, and I just couldn't bring myself to write about a "noodle arm" or "nerve re-generation." I have been wanting to look at the cap implications of this mess since it started so I think I'll take this chance.
Much has been made about the cap consequences of the Colts having both Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck on the same roster. Many have called it cap suicide. I have heard a number of ideas about what the Colts should do with all the cap room that cutting Manning would afford them. It begs the question; How much cap room would that actually give us?
Let's take a look at the contract Manning signed before this season started. It was a 5 year deal worth a total of $90 million. It broke down this way:
$20M Signing Bonus (due at the time of signing)
$3M Roster Bonus for 2011 (due for being on the roster as of June 1, 2011)
$28M Team Option Bonus (due March 8, 2012 to engage last 4 years of contract)
$39M Salary over 5 years
I'll break down what that means after the jump.
First, an explanation of how deals like this count towards the NFL salary cap. Any Bonus is prorated or spread out over the life of the contract. This is true with the exception of Roster Bonuses which count against the cap in the year they are paid. If the contract is terminated, any money that has already been paid is then accelerated to the current cap year instead of being spread out over the life on the contract. On to Manning's deal. These figures are rounded for ease of reading.
I'll break it down by year:
2011 -
Actual Pay: $20M Signing Bonus, $3M Roster Bonus, $3M Base Salary
Cap Hit: Prorated Signing Bonus $4M, $3M Roster Bonus, $3M Base Salary, Prorated Option Bonus $6M
TOTAL CAP HIT $16M
2012 -
Actual Pay: $28M Option Bonus, $7M Base salary
Cap Hit: $4M Prorated Signing Bonus, $6M Prorated Option Bonus, $7M Base Salary
TOTAL CAP HIT: $17M
2013 -
Actual Pay: $8M Base Salary
Cap Hit: $4M Prorated Signing Bonus, $6M Prorated Option Bonus, $8M Base Salary
TOTAL CAP HIT: $18M
2014 -
Actual Pay: $9M Base Salary
Cap Hit: $4M Prorated Signing Bonus, $6M Prorated Option Bonus, $9M Base Salary
TOTAL CAP HIT: $19M
2015 -
Actual Pay: $10M Base Salary
Cap Hit: $4M Prorated Signing Bonus, $6M Prorated Option Bonus, $10M Base Salary
TOTAL CAP HIT: $20M
So what happens if we cut or trade Manning?
Before the Option bonus is picked up:
Remaining Singing Bonus hits cap this year ($4M/year for 4 years remaining) $16M
Minus a Refund of the ~$6M Prorated Option Bonus that was on the cap in 2011
Total Cap Hit if cut $10M
After Option Bonus is picked up:
Remaining Signing Bonus $16M, Entire Option Bonus $28M hit cap this year $44M
Two big things. First, if the option is picked up he is staying. No sign and trade here. It would be like buying a car for $44M and then giving it to the guy you are racing against. Second, cutting him before the bonus on March 8 saves us $7M in cap space this season. The thought of going out and "fixing the team" with the $28M that we aren't paying Manning can't happen. We do save some, but not enough for all the upgrades I've seen proposed. Granted, the cap hit for 2012 -2015 would be $0. A nice number for signing other players.
What happens if Manning is cut or retires after playing each of the seasons in his contract?
This scenario assumes that we have picked up the Option bonus and then Manning retires or is cut before the season listed. The number listed would be Manning's "Dead cap" amount for that year. If this cut or retirement would happen after June 1 of that year, the dead cap could be spread over 2 cap years.
2013 - $27M
2014 - $16M
2015 - $5M
This breakdown is for those folks (like me) who want to see Manning play one or two more years and then hang them up as a Colt. This is extremely expensive for one year cap hits. If they could be spread over two years, they would save money off the cap from Peyton staying on the roster, but we would still take a hit. Looks like 2 years in the magic number. Once we get past 2013, the dead money hit is less than the cost to keep him on the roster. Cutting or retirement would save the Colts cap space.
What will Andrew Luck cost against the Cap?
Looking at the deal Cam Newton got (4yrs, $22M all guaranteed) so his cap numbers are $4M, $5M, $6M & $7M for the contact. Inflating a bit for a new year, here are my guess at the cap numbers for Luck (assuming a 4yr, $24M all guaranteed contract).
2012 - $5M; 2013 - $6M; 2014 - $6M; 2015 - $7M
Seems like a bargain to me and, of course, it is with the new CBA. The money is all guaranteed so we don't have to worry about all the signing bonus stuff.
What will the salary cap number be?
The cap number in 2011 was $120M. From 2006-2010 the cap increased $7M per year. I won't assume the same growth with the new CBA, so we'll say $5M/year. That makes the estimated cap total for each year:
2012 - $125M; 2013 - $130M; 2014 - $135M; 2015 - $140M
Could both fit on the same roster without killing the cap?
Sure it could happen. Here's a look at the numbers.
2012 -
Manning - $17M
Luck - $5M
Total for QBs - $22M
Percent of Estimate Cap - 17%
2013 -
Manning - $18M
Luck - $6M
Total for QBs - $24M
Percent of Estimate Cap - 18%
2014 -
Manning - $19M
Luck - $6M
Total for QBs - $25M
Percent of Estimate Cap - 18%
2015 -
Manning - $20M
Luck - $7M
Total for QBs - $27M
Percent of Estimate Cap - 19%
While those percentages seem like a lot. My thought is that it doesn't hamstring as much as I thought it would. Especially noting that last year we spent 17% of our cap on QBs and in the Manning "Golden Years" his cap number alone averaged 14% of our cap. That's an extra 4% of the cap to have the best prospect I've seen in my lifetime backup the GOAT.
Now, would it be better for the Colts to be able to tear up Manning's deal and ink a new, incentive laden one? Hell Yes! If that happens and you are in my general vicinity, you'll get to see a fat man try to do a back handspring (not pretty). I doubt that you will see it because, if he is released, there will be someone out there offering more than just incentive laden deals.
I don't know which reports are true. I have no inside information. I do think that if Peyton had arm strength, he would have no reason to not let a video slip that proved it to the fans, the Colts and, most importantly, any other teams that might be watching.
After looking at all these numbers, I feel that if Irsay sees a workout that looks like what Adam Vinatieri says he saw a few weeks ago, there is plenty of space to make the "new era" a transitional one instead of rebuilding one.
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Comments
your numbers are incorrect
cutting manning before march 8th would be a 10.4 mil hit and not 16 mil. according to my sources. and my source has charts
You are correct...
I forgot we get a refund for the Option Bonus that was on our books for 2011. It’s actually $5.6M prorated amount so we get that refunded off his 2012 dead money if cut. Sorry. Not using any sources for this, doing all the leg work myself.
Bleedin' Blue for as long as I can remember. Can you believe we get to be fans while our team has the greatest QB of all time?!?!?!
good effort
i am not smart enough to figure out how the cap works. i just pay attention to dudes that are smart enough to do it. and read their charts
chart
A chart would make this so much easier to look at .
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 12, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Would it make more sense to "rebuild" with a rookie?
Or the greatest QB to ever play the game? Manning has obviously been carrying this team on his back ever since he came to Indy. Whatever team he is on is a playoff contender. Sounds a heck of a lot better to rebuild WITH him than trying to rebuild WITHOUT him.
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Feb 12, 2012 12:42 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
the greatest qb to ever play the game
isnt coming out of retirement.
as far as manning goes. sure. just hop in your delorean, fire up the flux capacitor and go back and call a run play against the skins so he doesnt get smoked and injured.
he is too old and injured to rebuild around. you do that with the new qb. manning probably isnt going to play again anyway
you're an idiot
I just wanted to say that. Your full of crap, all the stuff that comes out of your mouth is like you know better than anyone else. You are no better than Bob Kravitz or Michael Lombardi.
by kbreboot on Feb 12, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
haha
i do know better than the majority of people here
Let me guess...
You never met a mirror you didn’t like. Right?
by the_iowa_hawkeye on Feb 13, 2012 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
i wouldnt say that
i would say i am an average looking guy
that was funny.... the first time me and another fan used that similar line two months ago.
not only does your insight suck you can’t come up with any new material. the you’re always right, draft luck, that’s stupid has been rehashed more than MIA flipping you off.
what… you going to bring out more golden oldies and tell me make like a tree and leave? how about putting up a chart how many people think your an a**hole.
by BigMan74 on Feb 13, 2012 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
sorry bigman
i will try and write down what everyone on this board says so i wont say anything similar. especially 2 months down the line. what was i thinking.
My point was to show that...
It’s not impossible to “rebuild” with Manning’s Option heavy contract on the cap. I would love to see both for 2 years and then a nice ride off into the sunset. But that’s the dreamer in me.
I also want to take Irsay at his word and see Manning retire as a Colt. Every time I think of him in another uniform, I throw up a little bit.
Bleedin' Blue for as long as I can remember. Can you believe we get to be fans while our team has the greatest QB of all time?!?!?!
manning playing in another uniform
is way more on manning than it is irsay
by omahacolt on Feb 12, 2012 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
hate to admit it
But I agree, The ball is in 18’s court. I personally think Irsay’s hands are tied. If Peyton really wants to play for 1 team then he needs to offer to restructure.
by Coltsfan8000 on Feb 12, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Manning is under contract through the 2015 season.
His playing in another uniform is ENTIRELY up to Irsay.
This is the fact.
If Irsay writes the check on March 8th, Manning is a Colt whether he likes it or not.
New Math: 2011-18 = 2-14
But Irsay signing the contract as it is on March 8th is a very risky idea.
And probably a bad one.
by James Broschat on Feb 13, 2012 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
It is up to Manning...
But Irsay has shown him the door, basically.
Letting go of Polian, Caldwell, Tom Moore (2 years ago), demoting Christiensen. Bringing in a defensive minded coach who is going to redo our defense.
He’ll probably be saying goodbye to Reggie Wayne, Jeff Saturday, and some combination of Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, possibly even Freeney or Mathis.
He’s already stated emphatically that he will take Andrew Luck – something Manning does not support at all (benching #1 QB’s).
Sure, Manning can come back and play out his career in a story-book ending, but why would he want to? Irsay’s moves with the rest of the franchise suggest that he’s moved on from Peyton Manning. He just doesn’t want the media back-lash that he’ll get from re-building around Andrew Luck instead of risking it with Manning.
www.Coltsider.com
check out the new Colts blog!
You might be right
But you’re still stringing things together that have been stated over a period of time. Opinions and circumstances can change greatly from one day to another.
"We make all the right moves…as long as we have a time machine!"
- PMoney's suggestion for shirts here
I really don't think it is up to Manning.
It would be great if he offered to restructure, but that’s simply not something he should do. The Colts signed him to a contract, and he will honor that contract if they let him. That is his end of the bargain.
If Irsay opts to go in another direction, it isn’t Manning’s responsibility to come to him and offer to restructure. It’s Manning’s responsibility as a top-rated player, a husband, and a father, to get what money he can in the time he can get it.
It’s Irsay’s responsibility to do what is best for the franchise. If he deems that cutting Peyton is better for the Colts and better for Indianapolis, then he needs to make that decision and stick to it.
by LeftNutForAStarCenter on Feb 13, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
your wording is off leftnut
manning not being healthy is the reason his contract will be voided. not that irsay thinks its best for the franchise
manning has a gimped up arm and might not ever play again. you dont pick up that contract
and the hated Patriots like Reggie Wayne
that will be painful if it happens and I bet they would go after Mathis and Freeney if they are released
by OBGYNOSUPREME on Feb 13, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
thats not showing him the door, kmb
that is doing what is best for the organization. you dont keep bad coaches or a struggling gm because manning likes them. if manning thinks he should get whatever coaches he wants then he should be shown the door. and shown the door right now.
No.
I love Manning and I love the Colts, and I’ll remain a Colt fan whether Manning stays or goes, but Manning playing in another uniform is completely up to Irsay. Period.
Manning is a professional athlete. He has family. He has a future to think about beyond football. He owes Indianapolis nothing. He owes Irsay nothing. He gets paid to do what he does, and as the best player in the league, he has the right to be paid like it. There is not and should not be any obligation on Manning’s part to take a “hometown discount”.
Would I appreciate it if he did? Abso-fucking-lutely. I also completely do not expect him to do so though, and that does not make me think any less of him whatsoever.
by LeftNutForAStarCenter on Feb 13, 2012 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Think of it as "reloading"
The team can keep Manning for 2 years, then either trade him or he may retire after 2nd year as age catches up to him. Luck is able to pick it up from there and the cap hit from Manning’s contract is minimal if spaced out over 2 years (if possible).
Colts remain competitive, Luck learns from a legend, fans are satisfied and Irsay keeps his good standing with the fans – thus his pocketbook remains strong to quite strong.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
by AceOfSpades on Feb 12, 2012 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
We're all just speculating
Of course Manning may not play again, and then they roll with Luck. If Luck is good, then all is good with the team and fans. If Manning stays with the Colts, and he is healthy again and plays well, the fans are happy and the team is competitve. Luck learns from him and there is a seemless transition just like with Montana to Young.
But all we can do is hope that the right decision is made regardless of which one it is. If Manning stays and doesn’t play well, the team is screwed for a few years. If Luck is all they have and he sucks, the team is screwed for even longer IMO.
Manning and Luck on the same team is more of a really expensive insurance policy than anything else. I feel Irsay would see it this way too.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
by AceOfSpades on Feb 12, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
When has an elite player just walked away just because
If Manning is healthy and plays well he will want to play until his body won’t let him. That would likely be 3-4 years…
He won’t step aside for Luck if the option is picked up nor should he…this is a chance for everyone to move on
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 12:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Or how about...
Jim Brown 29 years old. Christian Okoye, Tiki Barber, Tarik Glenn(Ring a bell?), Kurt Warner(Old but healthy), John Elway(He wasn’t hurt either), Marvin Harrison(Not hurt, elite, HoF, retired), Those are some examples of elite players walking away. Happy now?
Stupid rebuttal
Who cares if Tiki Okoye and Glenn retired early…you are comparing them to Peyton? Those dudes are not elite in the pantheon of NFL history. They had some elite seasons but not HOFers or close to.
The only all time greats on that list that just walked were Sanders and Brown. Real brilliant use two people out of many greats that we’re dragged out..
Elite superstar player and all time greats dont just leave they usually play until they can’t physically perform or stand the pain or the league doesn’t want them. Don’t belive me? Ask Steve Young, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, Johnny Unitas, Brett Favre, Dan Marino, Emmit Smith, LaDamian Tomlinson, Jerome Bettis, Michael Irvin, Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Terell Owens. Notice those are a list of HOFers….
Also ask Barry Bonds, Muhammad Ali, Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretky, David Beckham etc.
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 13, 2012 3:48 AM EST up reply actions
NOT A HOF'er?
Glenn. I would bet that Manning would disagree with you there.
by ColtsCrushers on Feb 13, 2012 7:12 AM EST up reply actions
Nah.
Glenn was good, but he wasn’t that good.
by James Broschat on Feb 13, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
OK
You asked when has an elite player just walked away, not Peyton. I will compare Jim Brown and Barry Sanders to Peyton ALL DAY. They were 2 of the best 5 RB’s of ALL TIME. They left just because. Tarik was a damn elite tackle. Tiki was elite, he was also a bit of an a-hole but no doubt he was elite.
“Real brilliant to use 2 examples of players who just walked away”…..Thats what you asked for dude. Bonds left cause of roids, Ali is a boxer…most all fighters fight till they are basically brain dead. Jordan quit in his prime 2 times. Gretzky, he held on too long. Beckham still plays, at a high level. Just won MLS cup and top euro clubs still want him on their teams.
All I am saying is elite players do just walk away sometimes. Your first statement was false.
by AZ_Colt_Fan on Feb 13, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's not a good list
NightRidah never said that elite players only leave with career-ending injuries — he said that they leave when their bodies won’t let them play. Warner and Elway were both 38 with their skills in decline when they hung it up. Both of them talked about the physical toll a 16-game season put on their bodies as part of the reason they didn’t come back. Harrison was 36 and was never the same after his knee injury in 2007. Okoye was only 31, but his bruising running style left him constantly dinged up, and a nagging knee injury limited him to 448 yards and a 3.1 YPC in his final season.
All of them played until their bodies just wouldn’t let them be their old selves. There’s no reason to expect Manning to do any different. If he’s still playing at an elite level in two years, do you really think he’ll voluntarily give his spot up to Luck?
Not a good list?
He said when has an elite player ever walked away just because.
I gave examples of players who did just that. Warner and Elway just played in the SB when they retired, not exactly dragged away. They could still play, and play well. Harrison was still a top 5-10 receiver. Okoye…fine single him out. Where are your arguments for the others? Jim Brown, Barry, Tarik, or Tiki? Elite(and HoF some of them) just walked away. It may not be the norm but, it does happen.
by AZ_Colt_Fan on Feb 13, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Think about your examples
I never said it doesn’t happen. As you pointed out, it does, most often with running backs, for some reason:
- Brown left because he felt underpaid and thought he could make more money as a movie star
- Sanders walked away because he lost his competitive fire after years of losing
- Tarik Glenn didn’t suffer the losing Sanders did, but he too left because he lost his passion for the game
- Barber walked away to start what he thought would be a long and lucrative media career.
That said, your list has several players who left because their bodies gave out:
- In his last year, Elway only started 12 games due to injuries. His numbers were solid, but hardly stellar, when he did play. Elway talked repeatedly about the wear and tear playing put on him in his last two years — he fully intended to retire at 37, but his teammates talked him into one more year. He’s obviously glad they did, but he also knew that his body just wasn’t capable of handling a 16-game season anymore.
- Warner was in the same boat as Elway. In his last three years, he had one great one (2008 — 30 TDs, 14 Ints, 4,583 yds and a Super Bowl appearance) and two solid-but-unspectacular ones (2007 — 27TDs, 17Ints, 3,417 yards. 2009 — 26 TDs 14 Ints, 3,753 yds). His skills were declining, and he too talked about how handling the rigors of a full season was becoming difficult for his body.
- Marvin Harrison a top 5-10 WR at the end? Did you even watch him in 2008? I did, and it broke my heart to see a player I loved that much go from prolific to pedestrian. That year, he had 60 catches, 636 yards and 5 TDs. That’s an average of 4 catches had 45 yards per game. He didn’t have a single 100-yard game all year. Does that “top 5-10” to you?
So, half the players you mentioned did in fact walk away because their bodies told them they were done. The other half left for one of two reasons: to make more money elsewhere, or because they had lost their passion for the game. Peyton certainly doesn’t have to worry about money, and is one of the most passionate people to ever play the game. Do you really think he’ll walk away before his body makes him?
Some people just come here to post stupid arguments
Everyone who follows sports knows that all time greats generally play until teit body won’t let them perform at a high level due to age injury or no one wanting them anymore…
Then he cites Harrison as an elite player when he retired…
And it’s off on a tangent anyways because my initial point was that PM isn’t just gonna quit in two years to make room for Luck if he comes back and plays well…he signed a 5 yr deal and I think he would play to the end if his body holds up an he is playing at a high level…Any other argument is just a misdirection by fans who want to keep Peyton at all costs…
Smart fans get it that keeping Peyton if healthy is fine but the salary cap is the bigger issue…which makes keeping a 60-70% healthy Manning a pretty dumb idea unless the deal is reworked. Smart fans understand a physical regression is inevitable…Smart fans understand that prospects like Luck only
come around once in 15 years…Smart fans understand that the core of the team is aging and they are not a SB caliber team with Manning…
I’m not saying going with Luck is the only way, they could trade the pick for parts and make another run…but smart fans at least understand the window may be shut and its at viable option to cut Manning and go with the kid…
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 13, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Ace
Remember this, Jim Signed and agreed to the contract that Manning has. Only reason why he would be recanting that is that of a dismal season without him. That being said why on earth would you give the guy a contract unless you know he is the best chance to winning another superbowl now. Starting Luck means no superbowl for another 7-10 years. Luck is not exactly walking into an era of bad teams playing in the NFL. In the conference alone for AFC you have the Steelers, Patriots, Chargers, Ravens and Texans. Then you still have to face either the Giants, Saints, 49ers and Packers. So winning a Superbowl is not going to be easy for Luck lead colts in the next 4-7 years. By then the colts would be stripped of talent due to players contracts expiring and wanting more money.
Stripped of talent
Yes they would be if they never drafted new players, but if Grigson has a couple of good drafts in a row the team will replenish its talent just as all other good teams do.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
Were do you people keep getting these numbers ?
“So winning a Superbowl is not going to be easy for Luck lead colts in the next 4-7 years. By then the colts would be stripped of talent due to players contracts expiring and wanting more money”. -kbreboot.
Starting Luck means no superbowl for another 7-10 years. Why ? Do you just make this up as you go along ? Why can’t Luck win ? is he special that it just won’t happen ? Do you have a crystal ball ? if you do whats the powerball numbers next week ? Dam we are replacing one guy..yes he’s great but dam other people play football too and they do good work.
Starting Luck means no superbowl for another 7-10 years
Whoa what was that? Oh, just the credibility and any semblance of value to your post disappearing into the mist…
by LeftNutForAStarCenter on Feb 13, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
Once again...
Some people just come here to make foolish arguments based on nothing…
If you won’t the Colts to keep Peyton and pass on Luck thats not a bad take by any means provided he is gonna be 100% which no one knows for sure…
But assuming Luck can’t deliver has nothing to do with Peyton and his talent. It is possible for Luck to be great. Many analysts think he is the best NFL prospect in 25 years and has multiple SB talent! He is mobile hard working smart and has a thirst for FB. And for 4-5 years he will not cost much…
Sounds good to me! If you have to lose Peyton its nice to have a great prospect to develop
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 13, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
this article was great and informative....
it was also full of hope and sentimental pining for big P. i don’t think it’s a money issue with Irsay. it kills me to hear people bashing Irsay over the last few months. in my opinion, he is forecasting the future of the franchise. Peyton is a huge gamble to make when you are looking at such a highly prospected talent. if you go back and listen to the language he has been using about Luck, it’s pretty obvious what his intensions are. i hate to see Peyton go out like this but i think the first time we go 11-5 and make the playoffs, all this chatter about Peyton will be a distant memory. Go Colts!!!
12over18
hahha nice name. although it doesnt have to be like that. its more like 18then12
Some comments
Peyton is a huge gamble to make when you are looking at such a highly prospected talent.
Luck is also a gamble as he is nothing more than a prospect at this time. If he busts, which is also possible, the team will be f*cked in more ways than just a couple of years of a tight salary cap.
i hate to see Peyton go out like this but i think the first time we go 11-5 and make the playoffs, all this chatter about Peyton will be a distant memory.
Looking forward to 2015 will be fun while the team is fighting for 5-6 wins a year between now and then.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
by AceOfSpades on Feb 12, 2012 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
true
luck could bust. but you have to pull the trigger. anything else is bad business.
Agree
I think they would be stupid to pass on Luck, but I don’t think it would be the end of the world to keep Manning also (if healthy). They would have to be up front about it though because Luck shouldn’t sit more than 2 years, 4 more years of Manning wouldn’t work at all with Luck involved.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
by AceOfSpades on Feb 12, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
True,
but Luck is a huge risk with $22m of downside. Peyton is a health risk with 90 million worth.
The problem here isn’t so much fitting them both under the cap – percentage wise, as noted, they’ve paid more in a year for a QB before – but that to do that and still field a competitive team means pulling a lot of tricks to afford everyone else just to put together a team that’s still kind of falling apart around them. And then you just end up pushing the cap bill down the road a bunch. And you’re committed to Manning for four years, which is not useful for Luck. And he’s an injury risk.
Restructuring would be great, except Manning knows the scenario above, knows he won’t be coming back to as competitive a team, and even though he’s not saying it, he’d prefer to go somewhere else. And that’s why he’ll end up getting cut.
Good numbers breakdown, EMiller.
do u think we can be 10-6 until the end of time?
this has to happen at some point with a franchise. what a beautiful “problem” to have to choose between an all world QB in Manning or the “second coming” in Luck. i think everyone that wants Manning to stay is missing the big picture here. it’s about the franchise, not the player. the colts will be around LONG after Peyton is dead and gone. take away your unwavering love for big P and think about it terms of a business decision and i think you will start seeing things more clearly. no disrespect to anyones opinion but come on……….REALLY!
I don't have an unwavering love of Big P
But I do have an unwavering love of winning. Big P = winning. Luck = not so sure
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
Your right man..I really don't understand how these young players come out of college and think they can play football.
Its a dam shame, that no young player can win in the NFL. We should cancel the season for two years until Luck can learn to play football, thank god there are no other players around him to help him learn and win.
by armycolts25 on Feb 12, 2012 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
right on army
a lot of the guys that are against luck like to say how much of a gamble he will be. but no matter what we do with manning, we have to gamble on a qb at some point. why not the best prospect that has came out in years? according to the experts at least
by omahacolt on Feb 13, 2012 1:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If you take the sentiment out of it and say this out loud...
Pay 28 million dollars and Rebuild a 2-14 team around a 36 year old with 3 neck surgeries and that is still struggling to throw the ball at pro level speed 4 weeks from the option decision!
It’s time for Luck to take over! I expect the Colts to win 6-8 games with him next year depending on the draft and who they keep in the offseason
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 13, 2012 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
thats the problem
lots of fans cant be rational when it comes to manning
LUCK ISN'T A
gamble. He is well scouted and researched. The Colts and the rest of the league have a very good idea of what kind of player he will be. There isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t draft him number 1.
except for the part
when manning signs with a rival team in the same division. Don’t count it out. It would be the ultimate peyback, if you know what i mean. I know if i was in his position that would be my choice. go into a team in the same division…
So what if he does?
I certainly don’t want to see it happen, but in the grand scheme of things, what does it really matter? This isn’t a “Farve vs. Green Bay” type of situation, where the vet QB comes back to stick it to his old team, which happens to be full of young talent and ready for a deep playoff run. If we let Manning go, we’re entering a rebuilding mode, and it’s going to be a couple of years before we’re ready to be contenders. We’re not really in competition with any “win-now” team that Manning would go to.
Let me put it more concretely: There’s a new rumor going round that Manning might sign with the Texans. While I don’t want to see that happen, if it does, I won’t be crushed. Over the next 2-3 year, i’d expect the Texans to beat us, whether they had Manning or Schaub as their QB. But at the end of that 2-3 year period, if Grigson did his job well, we’ll be a team with a lot of young talent getting ready to enter its prime while the Texans are going downhill with an aging Manning and Andre Johnson. I could certainly live with that outcome.
by the way....
does any of the moves Irsay has made so far look anything like he intends to bring Peyton back??? no it doesn’t, so…….either adapt or die with the ghosts of the past. i for one will be looking forward to the exciting future of this franchise!
I do think that a door has been left open...
Bringing back Arians (Peyton’s first ever QB coach) to be OC as well as retaining Christiansen leaves the door open for Peyton and Irsay. Both are comfortable with Peyton and how he works. If Irsay had brought in Mike Martz, an offense Peyton doesn’t know and coach he’s never worked with, it would be a larger sign. These leave the door open.
The wholesale changes have been on the Defensive side of the ball, not the offense.
Bleedin' Blue for as long as I can remember. Can you believe we get to be fans while our team has the greatest QB of all time?!?!?!
by emiller17 on Feb 12, 2012 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for the info....
useful in explaining the cap ramifications.
by thomasezekiel77 on Feb 12, 2012 1:14 AM EST reply actions
I hope people will read this...
So they can stop making asinine posts and wasting bandwidth
Yes they can have both…if Peyton is healthy…but it would still not be wise to pay him the option. If they can re negotiate the deal that’s best for everyone…
Otherwise it’s time for Luck to take the helm an learn the game at the pro level…
You guys need to get over it. Manning is NOT healthy regardless of how much we want to speculate. If he was 100% healthy him or his agent would say so. No, he won’t get paralyzed if he gets blindsided by a DE…but if he doesn’t have arm strength he can’t play…the end!
Some of you people want to pay 28mil and tie the cap up based on past accomplishments…He isn’t worth that kind of money and won’t get it anywhere else…
Yeah yeah, I know he built the Luke carried the franchise brought the SB both game and trophy to Indy yada yada. He didnt do this for charity guys. He isnt God or mother Teresa. He was a great QB and citizen an made more $$$ than any NFL player in history.
Hey I loved watching him play and can’t stand it to end abruptly like this but it’s probably over. It’s not a conspiracy…the guy got injured and the team has to move forward.
Its easy to assume he will come back and play without incident but not realistic. I am 33 years old…in pretty good shape, run 3 miles every day and my body just doesn’t recover like it did 7 year ago and im not getting throttled by people that weigh 350 lbs…Injury or not Manning was/is going to physically regress…penciling him in for 4 more 35-40TD seasons is overly optimistic…
When Steve Jobs was too sick to run his company Apple didn’t shut down…they hired a new CEO and released and begin prepping the IPhone 5. It’s not blasphemy to look forward and hope Luck is great. We can’t go back in time to where PM was 31…Age got Ali, Jordan, Ruth, and it will get Manning if it already hasn’t got him…
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 1:34 AM EST via mobile reply actions 3 recs
Nice post, emiller. Let's hope for the best!
“You guys need to get over it. Manning is NOT healthy regardless of how much we want to speculate. If he was 100% healthy him or his agent would say so. No, he won’t get paralyzed if he gets blindsided by a DE…but if he doesn’t have arm strength he can’t play…the end!”
Same old speculation. There’s currently nothing to “get over”. You, nor I, have any idea of what Manning is currently capable of. So until I hear it from the man himself, I have to put my faith in the words of reputable souls that have seen him throw a.k.a. Polian and Vinatieri.
Let’s chillax with the speculative theories, “guarantees”, and just ride out the storm. We could witness a triumphant return that will transition us to the Andrew Luck era, or maybe we see one of misery. Who knows?
Writer for StampedeBlue.com.
by Stew Blake on Feb 12, 2012 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Speculative? Perhaps
But there’s a difference between uninformed and informed speculation, Stew. The Manning camp has been particularly vocal as of late, and have had no problem discussing his thoughts on the team’s current situation and issuing a fairly detailed medical report about his neck.
But when it comes to his arm? We get nothing but generalities like “It’s getting better” and that “rehab is on schedule” (w/out ever, of course, mentioning what that schedule is). Given how aggressively Manning is trying to convince teams he’d be worth the risk as a free agent (i.e. the public report that the neck is fully fused, Condon leaking to ESPN that Manning would take an incentive-laden contract to reduce risk), if the arm was good to go, they’d let us know.
Look, Peyton is fighting for his job and his legacy. He wants Irsay to pick up that $28M option, and, barring that, prove to the rest of the league that he’s a sound investment. If his arm was good, he’d be standing out in front of the Luke throwing 50-yrd. bombs to passers-by on the street just to let the world know he’s good to go. But he’s not. He’s not letting anyone see him throw.
That’s not to say it won’t get better, and he won’t return to an elite level. But it’s pretty obvious that he’s not there right now.
by Chris S. on Feb 12, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
YOUR POSTS
are great, and I think, spot on. I might be a cynic but this information coming from Manning’s camp is about one thing and one thing only, money. This is Manning’s last chance at a payday and he wants that $28 million. People will say that he has already made a lot of money, and he has. But $28 million is a lot of money and he will never be in a position again to get it.
I don;t blame Manning one bit, he’s entitled to get everything he can. I don’t blame Irsay for doing what he has to do.
haha javen
thats not the manning we all know and love. the perception of manning is that he has enough money and he only cares about winning.
the reality of manning is that he cares a great deal about the money he gets paid. it is very important to him and if not more important, it is n par with winning.
you and chris s always have great posts. good job guys
i totally agree!
Manning’s huge contracts have always been an issue throughout his career. in reality (as much as i hate to say it) Brady should have always been the highest paid. Manning demanded it and it always crippled this franchise to a certain degree. i know heads r gonna explode over this one but it was always a chink in the Manning armor. he took this team to places it had never been and for that he deserved a lot. i just think paying a huge contract to a great QB is a recipe for 12-4 with a first round playoff exit. for those that say Luck will never be as good as Peyton, is say i hope not. i would rather he be really good and get solid contracts that leave room to build a team around him.
Luck
Will have the top heavy contract too just as soon as his rookie deal is up and we will have enough players on the roster making high dollars that will prevent a revamping to take place prior to that.
Brady is 3 times the QB now than when he was winning, and when he was winning for the most part he wasn’t being paid as a top of the line QB, so it was easier to build a better team around him.
Fact of the matter is Manning has only been the highest paid player once since 2000.
2010 it nearly had to be Brady at 26 USA Today hasn’t updated the 2010 #’s yet http://patscap.com/capfootnotes.html#brady
2009 it was Rivers 25 http://content.usatoday.com/sportsda…/player/top-25
2008 it was Roethlisberger 27 http://content.usatoday.com/sportsda…er/top-25/2008
2007 it was Freeney 30 million http://content.usatoday.com/sportsda…er/top-25/2007
2006 it was Seymour 24 million http://content.usatoday.com/sportsda…er/top-25/2006
2005 it was Vick 23 http://content.usatoday.com/sportsda…er/top-25/2005
2004 it was Manning 35 http://content.usatoday.com/sportsda…er/top-25/2004
2003 it was Urlacher 15 http://content.usatoday.com/sportsda…er/top-25/2003
2002 it was Strahan 20 http://content.usatoday.com/sportsda…er/top-25/2002
2001 it was Brian Griese 15 http://content.usatoday.com/sportsda…er/top-25/2001
2000 it was Bledsoe 8 http://content.usatoday.com/sportsda…er/top-25/2000
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 12, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
It seems some of the links are no longer working I copied and pasted from an old post at another site.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 12, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
can't be true
i didn’t check any of these sites yet, i’m just talking about Peyton. we can argue semantics but he signed as the #1 overall pick which equaled a higher salary than any other rookie at the time. when he re-signed, it was the largest contract at the time. he may have been eclipsed shortly after, but he WAS the highest paid for a period of time. that brings us up to last year, which again, was the largest contract of anybody in the NFL eclipsing Pretty Boy Brady.
if u come back with a report that defies this, i will gladly concede. these are the semantics and you r missing my point. the point is he has always had huge contracts (deservingly) that crippled or at least made it really hard to field a stronger supporting cast.
with Luck i would rather he be more like a Flacco or Ryan or Rothlisberger. what i mean by that is: i want him to be above average but not a complete world beater. this will keep his salary in a more cap friendly range. before i get a list of people calling me an idiot for thinking Matt Ryan or Big Ben is awesome, let me clarify that i don’t think they are awesome. i hope Luck is a little better than Ryan and he gets rid of the ball faster than Big Ben.
when the Pats were winning SB’s, TB wasn’t the pass completing robot he is today. now that they look like the colts, they aren’t winning trophies anymore. Rogers, Brees and TB’s teams are all heading down this path. all-world QB’s with roster crippling salaries. i hope Luck is cut from the same cloth as Eli and Ben, solid QB’s with a balanced team around them. this is my hope for this franchise and i think this is what Irsay’s vision looks like as well. yes, i put my self on the same shelf as Irsay…..jk!
yes, i also know that Eli and Ben both signed big contracts. Eli’s (i believe) was bigger than Ben’s. this is a valid argument, and i know the successes of their teams are not solely based on my theory. both teams have great coaching and great scouting and great front offices. there it is, pick it apart…
The Colts haven’t had great coaching in Manning’s tenure, and the #‘s weren’t wrong.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 13, 2012 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
i kind of disagree (although i get your point)
i want luck to be the best qb that has ever played the game. just like i want every colts player to be the best that has ever played the game. but it rings most true with the qb. that is the key guy
Disagree
You should want Luck to be the best QB ever…
Just draft better coach better and spend cap money better.
Colts didn’t need Dallas Clark and Addai to win a SB…those picks andover could have been spent on D.
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 13, 2012 1:36 AM EST up reply actions
i got a little lazy with that last post
i guess, in a nutshell, what i don’t want to see is another decade of 11-5, 12-4 seasons with no rings. i would rather have the ups and downs (if necessary) with 2 or 3 rings. if we can do it with the best damn QB on the planet, great! wonderful! terrific! but if it takes a lesser caliber QB and more solid all around team than i’m fine with that as well. the later is probably a more balanced approach.
I'm gonna respectfully disagree
The idea that elite QBs and their high salaries are team-killers has been popping up a lot lately, but I’m not sure I buy it.
I don’t think Manning’s salary was ever really the problem with the Colts over the years, anymore than I think Brady’s salary is the problem with the Pats now, or Brees’ upcoming payday will be the fatal flaw for the Saints. All of these guys have (or will shortly) make a ridiculous amount of money — but all three will have earned every penny by providing consistently elite play. They might not be salary cap bargains (i.e. outperforming their cap numbers), but they’re not cap drags either — they produce at the level they’re paid at, so they’re more cap neutral (neither bargain or rip-off).
What having elite QBs does do to a team is significantly reduce their margin of error for drafting/signing other players. That doesn’t mean you can’t sign players — you certainly can. It just means you have want to spend your remaining cap dollars wisely — i.e. avoid big contracts to players who underperform, and spending that money in the areas your team needs to succeed.
I still genuinely believe there were two main issues that hurt the Colts’ competitiveness over the years:
- Paying big money contracts to players who didn’t live up to them. Guys like Bob Sanders and Kelvin Hayden were calculated gambles (on health and potential, respectively) that we busted on. Other guys, like Gary Brackett, were simply overpaid.
* Putting too much emphasis on offense. The team has consistently thrown a lot more of its resources (high draft picks & money) to the offensive side of the ball, resulting in the team too often putting all its eggs in one basket. Now, that’s not a terrible strategy when the basket is named Peyton Manning. But Manning has shown that an elite QB can make an offense click without it being stacked with first-rounders — Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, Jacob Tamme and even Blair White can attest to that (As can Tom Brady, who somehow managed to dominate the AFC this year with nothing more than two TEs and a quality slot receiver). If a few of those high picks had been spent on bolstering the defense, we could have had a more balanced team AND an elite QB at the same time.
Bottom line: I don’t think you should ever be scared of getting and paying an elite QB. It’s the most important position on the team, and securing one is the single biggest move a team can make to become a consistent winner. But, if they manage to nab one, a team’s front office has to keep working hard to minimize financial mistakes and scout diligently to find affordable talent.
Good post!
I think Irsay had learned from the previous mistakes. If Luck turns out to be a stud after several years of development…Indy will be the best team in the AFC for 6-8 years because Brady & Rothlisberger are on the physical downside and eventually BoThe NE and PIT will have to retool…the Ravens D is aging, and Flacco Sanchez Locker Gabbert and Tebow are not scary at all to go against…
The only elite QB that has 7-8 years left to play is Rivers and SD is an underachieving and poorly coached team…Schaub is pretty good too but not a true superstar.
I like the Colts chances if all they have to go through in 3-4 years is Schaub and Rivers or to a leaser extent Dalton Flacco and Sanchez)! Meanwhile the NFC is loaded with QBs! Brees probably only has 5 years left but Eli, Rodgers, Stafford, Ryan, Cam! Thats a murderers row indeed…I’m sure some
Young star is in the pipeline but Luck will have several years of development head start.
I think the Colts will be there to take the crown once all the big boys now out in a few years…And letting Luck play immediately is the first step IMO
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 13, 2012 6:06 AM EST up reply actions
agree
i can’t disagree with any of that. gives me a different perspective. i think i’m just so tired of what this team has looked like and would hate to see it happen again.
On that, we agree
I do think they need to go for a more balanced approach, and I think the coaching hires and comments Irsay has made have indicated he does too, which makes me happy.
THE FACT
that Manning is playing this for the money doesn’t make him a bad guy or at all diminish my respect and admiration for him.
This is professional football and the second you can’t contribute you will get cut. Manning and any other player should get whatever they can while they can.
by javen on Feb 12, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
True!
There is no good guy bad guy here…Manning wants and should lobby to get paid…Ursay should contemplate cutting him health pending…
Calling this ugly is media hype. When Steve McNair wasn’t allowed into the Titans facility that was ugly…Brett Favre yoyoing the Pack was ugly
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 11:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Great post Ridah
That is all there really is to say.
very good post ridah
and should be required reading for colts fans
i am 33 years old but my body is perfect and heals better than it did 7 years ago. i get better with age
great post nightridah
HOWEVER
despite injury……any of the other 31 teams in the NFL teams would have gone bankrupt protecting someone like manning in his final years…..instead the inept Polians shit all over this team
I think COLTS FANS,BBS,and everyone else would have absolutely nothing to talk about concerning manning’s injuries…..
I think if someone actually goes back and examines the colts roster after we win the superbowl……the evidence is clear…..bill polian shit all over this franchise years ago.
Grigson and pagano will never recruit speedy midgets for this team…..so right there is an instant upgrade…..
by sundaywager on Feb 12, 2012 2:49 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Polians didn't cause his injury directly
I do agree they should have spent more money and early picks on the offensive line…Reality is People get hurt…Manning gets rid of the ball and takes less punishment than most…
Polians surely ran their course and were terminated for good reason but I’m not going to blame them for every bad thing that happened
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 2:57 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
nice facts
You did a nice job with this. I’ve always maintained that if he is healthy, he’ll be a Colt. Lets hope we get lucky again (pun intended) and he gets “cut” and renegotiates with the Colts as well to make it even better for them in case he can’t go.
Yeah, I'm Shure.
Interesting
I was under the impression that cutting Manning at any point after picking up the option bonus would be cap Armageddon resulting in dead money of 20+mil regardless of the year he was released. But if he is only going to carry a 16 mil cap hit after two years and a 5 mil cap hit after three, then they have to pick up the option if he is healthy. If you think about it, the deal was probably intended to be a 3-4 year deal anyway with the expectation that he would be finished after the first 3-4 years.
It will be unless done in the last year of his contract.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 12, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
It doesn't surprise me at all
that we’re not seeing video proof of Manning throwing the ball with “zip” or whatever. We all know that people would be picking that apart and it would become more fodder for the same media speculation. The fact is that really isn’t for public consumption. How often have we seen Manning throw in practice when he was healthy?
If you look at my fan post from yesterday http://www.stampedeblue.com/2012/2/11/2792524/jim-irsay-on-peyton-manning-last-week
I think that pretty much tells the story of Irsay’s decision. No way he’d say that, then turn around and cut him a few weeks later. Manning has made it clear he plans to play in 2012. Irsay makes it clear that if he plays, it will be for the Colts. As fans we just have to hope his arm does get back to 100%.
The Kravitzes, LaCanforas, Schefters, Kuharskys and Big Blue Shoes of the world are going to have to live with being wrong about this one. I just hope Peyton plays well and the team wins games again!
Here, here
I’ve said the same thing to many other fans over the period of the last three or four weeks – even before Irsay made that particular statement. Irsay CANNOT dump Peyton at this point because of what he stated when contract talks were perculating last time ’round. Irsay stated then that he wanted Peyton to be a “Colt for life” and the “highest paid player in the league”.
There is no way he can backtrack on that now unless Peyton helps him out of painting himself into that corner. The only way 18 does that for Irsay is if he retires.
That’s why we’ve been hearing the Peyton camp saying he’s going to play in 2012. Now Irsay is firmly locked into his previous statements prior to the contract, and the most recent example provided by nmbr5ml with the link in his post.
Further, the long-term franchise success is also maintained by keeping Manning under salary and drafting Luck (although I would personally like Manning to return and trade down from the #1 pick for more players) so that once Peyton hangs ’em up, he can remain in Indy as either a QB coach or OC. If Irsay cuts him loose at this juncture, he will have reneged on all his public comments regarding keeping Peyton – which would also probably prohibit any future of Manning on the Colts coaching staff or in the front office.
I don’t think Peyton is going anywhere folks, and if he stays, I’m not entirely convinced we’re not going to trade out of that #1 pick. Just too many opportunities to add players across the board for at least two years of drafts (trading down with a second # pick to add even more picks) . Does everyone not believe that Grigson and Pagano could re-tool the current team with all those picks and a couple of free agents along the way ? There will be other QB’s that are very exceptionally good that will come around in the future. Luck isn’t the “only” chance we have.
BTFU !!
I usually like your takes...
But anytime I hear a fan say PM is gonna retire and then be a OC I tune them out because they appear to want to hold onto Peyton forever regardless if it is best for the franchise…
Guys that have 9figure money don’t take jobs a a QB coach or a OC….
They become executives, go work for ESPN,CBS,NBC or Fox or they go home and do charity work an raise their kids…
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 1:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Agree about the coach talk
Coaches work 12+ hour days for minimal pay compared to top level players. Coaches are typically players that weren’t all that good and thus take another route to stay in the game since they couldn’t make it big on the field.
Manning is not going to coach, let’s put that to bed.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
by AceOfSpades on Feb 12, 2012 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
CANNOT?
Things change. Irsay has the right, like everyone else, to change his stance on a topic based upon new information. If he were to pay Peyton the bonus now, with the opportunity to draft Luck, that would be a bad business decision. Irsay had no leverage when he made the last deal with Manning. He had no other option. He does now.
by thomasezekiel77 on Feb 12, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
I am pretty convinced they're taking a QB with the first pick
I’m just not convinced it will be Luck. I do think he is a sure thing, in that he will at least be a capable starting QB in the NFL. Everyone who’s seen both, appears to think the same of RG3. I believe there is a good chance the Colts will take RG3. Whether tey take him #1 overall or work some kind of 3-way deal to get him #2, I don’t know.
Don't think RGIII will be on the Colts either
RGIII, in my opinion, is a much bigger risk than Luck and since dropping Manning would already be a risky play due to the other involved factors besides his health, the last thing they want to do is put another big risk on top of that by taking RGIII when Luck is theirs for the taking.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
You Guys Are Missing Something
How come no one on here talks about the most important factor in this entire situation…
ANDREW LUCK WILL NOT BE ON THE COLTS IF PEYTON MANNING IS STILL ON THE ROSTER!!!!!!
If you listen to the interviews of both him and his dad, he wants to play RIGHT NOW! I love PM, but when you have this opportunity and you are in REBUILD MODE (and don’t kid yourselves people, we are), you can’t take the chance of Luck pulling an Eli and wanting out of Indy. Because I’m telling you he will!! When Fox radio flat out asked his dad if he would consider manipulating the draft…he would not answer the question. And keep in mind that the Manning’s and Luck’s are close – and Eli did the same thing.
That’s my biggest reason for wanting PM to be released. If we had a contending team, I would think otherwise. You don’t hit the lottery like this EVER. You have to pick Luck and start over.
I agree...
That is the pink elephant in the room no one is discussing…
If Peyton is healthy he is gonna and should play as long as he wants to. The worst take I have heard is "oh they can keep him 1-2 years and then he will just retire or then the Colts can trade him and then start Luck. So basically people are just pushing a problem 2 years downstream. If Manning plays well and the Colts go 10-6 11-5 the next two years why would they pull the plug then?!
This is the time to move on of that’s what the front office desires…history shows that aging icons don’t generally just walk away. They are dragged away because their body won’t let them play anymore…
No way Luck is gonna sit 3 years…If they pay the option they are married to Peyton for 3-4 years…Perhaps they could trade the pick and get RG3…but Luck and Peyton is not happening not should it.
I’m not saying that Luck is Jesus Christ or that they can’t find a QB elsewhere…What I am saying is that they have to choose. If they think Peyton is the man and can play at an elite level for 3-4 more years and they can put parts around him to make a SB run I say kudos…but from what I have seen of this team they are not talented enough to realistically contend
And No. I am certainly not an expert and don’t know this for fact…but I do have enough common sense to know that 1 overall picks don’t sit 3 years and that Manning is gonna play until his body says no more. Hell Favre would still be playing if he hadn’t been beaten to a bloody pulp in 2010
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 9:58 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Not hitting the lottery
Since the lottery hasn’t been played yet (Luck still hasn’t taken a snap) it’s more like having 5 million lottery tickets but the odds of winning are still 10 million to 1.
Still no guarantee with Luck just as there is no guarantee with Manning. At least if Manning can be projected to be healthy by doctors going into training camp the team knows what it is getting and not just hoping.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
by AceOfSpades on Feb 12, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
THE TEAM
knows what it is getting with Luck. He has been heavily scouted and analyzed on anything and everything he has done in college.
Now, until he does it in the pros, anyone can claim that he might be a bust. Luck isn’t a lottery ticket, he is a prospect that will almost assuredly become a very good to great NFL quarterback.
No guarantees.
If neither option is a guarantee, why would opt to to exercise the more expensive one?
by thomasezekiel77 on Feb 12, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
You are also missing something
Luck doesn’t really have a choice in the matter. Unless he wants to just not sign a rookie contract and essentially sit out of football for a while until the Colts trade his rights, Luck doesn’t have a choice as to where he goes. He gets drafted by the Colts and his only smart option is to sign a rookie contract with them.
I am a college student that sleeps with a St. Louis Cardinals Fredbird Pillow Pet, and I am proud of it.
The cap hit more or less cancels out
If Freeney is released. His cap hit is more than Manning’s this year, but no one seems to care about that.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
because we need a pass rush
we arent taking a de with the #1 overall pick.
Depends on the 3-4 vs 4-3
If they go primarily to a 3-4, Freeney is just a waste of money because he can’t play OLB or 3-4 DE.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
by AceOfSpades on Feb 12, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
thats not completely true
i just find it a bit dumb to just ditch one of the best pass rushers in the league. i dont think the colts will go to a 3-4 right away and i dont think they will use it as their base d for some time
His stats don't support that he is still one of the best pass rushers
He is more inconsistent than ever and his game changing plays are going to Mathis more and more as time goes on…
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
you got to look past his stats
the dude is still playing at a high level
He won't stay at 19mil on the cap
He will either be restructured or cut.
But how do you know he cant OLB in a 3-4? Also, Pagano ran a hybrid so in certain situations he would be in a 4-3 set…
All this talk about who can play in a 3-4 is funny to me. Freeney is a HOF player im sure they can find a use for him if the price is right…
He isn’t a pure 3-4 end meaning he can play there for 3 downs…but who is to say he can’t play end in various situations. I expect Pagono/Manusky to move him around and put him in situations he can flourish…of course if th price is right!
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 12:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
for sure
they will find a way to use freeney that works. its not like demarcus ware is covering guys in space a lot. he is usually rushing the passer
People need educated on the 3-4 as well as the cap
NT play is the most important thing in a 3-4. The Colts cant and will not play pure 3-4 for that reason…even if they draft a NT he will take some time to develop…No viable NT = no pure 3-4! Perhaps they get one as a FA but Pagano isnt stupid it will take a while to transition
Also Angerer and Brackett will be fine in a 3-4. All this they are too small talk is garbage…they are very close in size to Harrison and Timmons in Pittsburgh maybe 5lbs smaller…Cato June was only 227 he would be too small
Mathis and Freeney will thrive in the hybrid system where they can rush standing or with their hand down…Drake although short for a 3-4 DE still has value in a hybrid. Anderson is a perfect 3-4 DE
Perhaps Wheeler and Conner become expendable but they were mediocre players to begin with…future LBs will be taller an 10 lbs heavier…
Either way the D has been a joke for years how much worse can it be. I expect the D to be middle of the pack next year which will be an improvement. Most of all I don’t think you will hear the words soft and not physical anymore
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 1:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
You don't pay $19M to a guy that only plays in certain situations
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
Disagree
Freeney will probably be resigned because you can’t restructure his deal in the final year of his contract. In my opinion I think he could probably play both positions. If Mario Wiliams can play OLB for the texans at 290lbs why can’t freeney who is lighter. Freeney could also be used a bit like JJ Watt was on pass rushing downs, as he will have to much explosion and speed for opposing guards.
by ben10parsons on Feb 12, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
An extension
is basically restructuring.
Take 12-13 of his 14 million base salary, turn it into a signing bonus, extend him 2-3 years and lower his cap #.
Or
You trade him and hope to get something for him, and let the new team convert his 14 million base into a new deal while the Colts eat 5 more million in dead cap space.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 12, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Freeney
Freeney has never rushed from a stand up position. Thus, he would not transfer to a 3-4 DE or OLB.
I don't always drink beer....but when I do, I prefer Dos Equis.
You are wrong
He hasn’t but they guy is a hall of fame pass rusher…
It’s more likely than not he can make the adjustment…guys like him Allen Tuck Etc would likely be good in any system
It’s no guarantee but I’d be surprised of ur didn’t put up his usual 8-12 sacks in a 3-4
Ignorance about the 3-4 is the new ignorance about the salary cap I see
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 10:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Point well taken, Ace
May be a good time to trade Dwight to some team like Buffalo that is switching to a 4-3 scheme. Maybe for a 2nd and 5th, sort of like the return for Faulk in 1999. We need bigger guys to play end in a 3-4 scheme. Dwight is a bit long in the tooth to try and convert to a stand-up OLB in the 3-4. Trade him and use the picks to stock the cupboard on the defensive side of the ball.
New D-line coach
Anyone have any insight into what Gary Emanuel brings to the table. I know absolutely zip about him. Is there a previous connection to Pagano someplace?
Not sure.
I don’t know about a link to pagano, but he coached at purdue since 1997-2004 coaching both DT and DE. After that he coached in san fransisco for two years and was at rutgers for two years after that. He then went back to purdue in 2010, to be d-line coach and also defensive coordinator. Here is a link to his profile:
http://www.purduesports.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/emanuel_gary00.html
by ben10parsons on Feb 12, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
He has been exceptionally good with the DE's at Purdue
and at Washington State, Rutgers & Syracuse, among others, as well as the 49ers in ’06 & ’06.
In his first season back with Purdue in 2010, he helped turn Ryan Kerrigan into a first round pick after most believed he would go no higher than the 3rd or 4th round, while Purdue led the B1G that year with sacks and tackles for loss.
Hopefully he has a similiar effect with our Colts because he seems to know his sh*t.
BTFU !!
lets not forget ryan kerrigan hails from muncie
i don't give autographs
by muncie_in_this on Feb 13, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
Luck is going to pull and Eli
if Peyton stays in Indy. Be smart Indy, just let go of Peyton.
Hope Luck goes to Cleveland
and starts right away. Then we will all see if he is the Greatest QB to come along in the past 30 years. Hell, he should have them in the SB by 2015! If he lives up to the hype.
And what would your Man crush be considered?
Never did I say I hate Luck, This would be the best place to show all the doubters they are wrong. What a great challenge it would be for him.
luck belongs on the colts
i dont have a man crush on luck. i have laid out the reasons why he should be a colt. most people on this site understand the sound logic that i display in that wish. a few people act childish and say things like man crush
Thanks to you both ben and MacR
Nice heads ups on the new coach. He may not be legendary (yet), but he sure seems to be well regarded. We must be nearly fully staffed now. Just missing what – linebackers, cornerbacks ? Unless I missed some hires along the way.
But What Do You Expect Retaining Manning To Accomplish In Those Two Years?
I know the wishful thinking of many Colts (Manning) fans is that he was carrying a terrible roster and the 2-14 season proves it, and if Manning comes back they are right back to being a contender. I, er, disagree. First off, in 2010, the Colts went 10-6 against an easy schedule in a terrible division, and would have missed the playoffs had Jacksonville been a bit healthier down the stretch. Second, folks didn’t just hand all those Pro Bowl invites to Colts because Manning was on the team. The team had some holes (i.e. run defense, plus they were never particularly physical on the OL) but there were several great players and a lot of good ones, and we know this from all the guys who left the Colts over the years with big free agent contracts and continued to be good players elsewhere (remember when raiding Colts free agents was the main personnel strategy of the Titans)? The problem is that the good players from the Colts’ peak years have gotten older (i.e. Reggie Wayne) and the Polians did a horrible job replacing them in the draft (see Tony Ugoh, Jerry Hughes, Fili Moala, Donald Brown and a ton of LB and DB picks that didn’t pan out).
Manning didn’t win fewer Super Bowls than Brady, Roethlisberger and his brother because he was carrying a bad team. He won fewer Super Bowls because the MAIN THING that you need to succeed in the playoffs, a good rushing defense, was absent because Polian’s “strategy” for drafting MLBs and LBs stunk.
So, put Manning on the field with that roster, and what is it going to accomplish? Even you stated that you don’t think that Manning should stick around longer than 2 years. Well, it is going to take longer than 2 years to build a roster that can score on playoff teams – not just the Titans – and stop playoff teams from scoring – not just the Jaguars. And say that the team is good 2 years from now. You think that Manning is just going to retire – walk away – right when the rebuilding process is taking effect? Why? For Andrew Luck’s sake? Please. Manning’s position is and will be that the team shouldn’t take Luck to begin with: that they should use the #1 overall pick for rebuilding.
Wanting Manning to retire a Colt is fine, but it is not worth the future of the franchise. Manning isn’t going to allow himself to be pushed aside for Luck. Luck is not going to want to be known as the guy who kicked the local legend out of town the rest of his career; everyone knows what Steve Young and then Aaron Rodgers went through. And even though you have done a good job mitigating the cost of keeping Manning 2 years, totally destroying my “you can save $64 million dollars in cap room!” nonsense, the truth is that under the salary cap every little bit counts. Even if it is “only” $10 million in savings (for example) … that can be 2 starters and a backup.
Here is the real deal that I don’t see a lot of people – especially Manning fans – dealing with: the aging process for QBs. There are exceptions, but it generally goes like this.
22-27: learning curve
28-32: peak years
33-35: noticeable decline begins
36- : decline begins to accelerate
There is no practical reason to believe that Manning will defy this timeline, and plenty of practical reasons to believe that he won’t. For example: the few QBs that consistently played at a high level past 37 or 38 tend to be guys with stronger arms than Manning had. Yes, I know that Manning isn’t 38-39 yet but you forget: the team stinks. It will take until he is 38 or 39 to build a team capable of actually succeeding in the playoffs.
So again: why keep Manning around? If you are a fan of the player, better to root for him to go to San Francisco and try to become the first QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with 2 teams. If you are a fan of the franchise, you have to be honest enough to acknowledge that this team isn’t going to win a Super Bowl the next 2-3 years while it is rebuilding no matter who the QB is, and they certainly won’t win one with a 38-39-40 year old QB thereafter. Why do I say this? Because except for John Elway on a team that had Pro Bowlers and Hall of Famers at every position on offense (Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe, Ed McCaffrey, Rod Smith, and one of the best offensive lines in NFL history) no one ever has.
So, go with Manning, and you won’t win a Super Bowl. You likely won’t even win a playoff game. And 2 years from now Manning almost certainly isn’t going to like the idea of retiring any more than he does right now. In 2 years, we will be right back where we are now.
What does going with Luck accomplish? For one thing, you can’t even guarantee that Luck would come to Indianapolis if Manning is on the roster. Manning would certainly oppose it: his father has already certainly said as much. And Luck (Andrew and Oliver) have also both stated that they oppose it. If Manning comes back, even for a renegotiated deal, there is a 50% chance that they won’t even attempt to draft Luck. And if they do try, there is at least a 50% chance (I personally believe that it is far higher) that Luck will pull an Eli Manning or John Elway and refuse to come here and force a trade. And why not? Luck doesn’t owe the Colts anything. He owes himself the best situation that he can land in, and has the clout to demand it. There is nothing preventing him from re-entering the draft for 2013, when he will still be the #1 overall pick, and when the Colts won’t be drafting #1 overall.
And even if Luck does come, there is no reason for him not to play away and start learning the NFL game. He isn’t Robert Griffin III, who has to learn complex reads, learn to take snaps under center, and work on his footwork and delivery. While I am paying lip service to the idea that Andrew Luck might not pan out, it is far more likely that Luck will be better than half the QBs in the NFL when he takes his first snap. Also, keep Manning, then the personnel strategy will be to make short-term moves to try to get the team back to the playoffs and Super Bowl (not to mention to protect Manning’s health). With Luck, the strategy would be longer term, building around the new QB.
Like it or not, there are no benefits associated with bringing Manning back. I restate for the 3rd time: if Manning is healthy 2 years from now he won’t want to retire any more than he does now, his fans won’t want him to leave then any more than they do now, and whatever QB is the top prospect in the draft they’ll claim him to be a likely bust just as they are with Luck. It is better to take care of this issue NOW when you can secure Luck in the draft and clear a ton of cap space by 2013 than it is to kick the can down the road in the hopes (delusions) that it will be any easier then than it will be now. To put it another way: if Luck IS a bust, you can find out right away and be looking at replacing him right about the time that he would just be getting on the field were Manning to stick around. Or have we forgotten that you only have 4 years now to make a decision on 1st round picks as opposed to the 6-7 of previous years? If Luck can play, the Colts will want to have him signed to a contract extension by year 3 before he hits the free agent market. You will want to see the guy play 2 years before year 3 so you can avoid the contract year/extension/franchise tag nonsense in year 4.
Bottom line: releasing Manning is a tough decision. But it is precisely those that owners and managers have to make.
by an_auburn_fan on Feb 12, 2012 8:24 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
while i dont agree with everything you said
for the most part you made good points
well done
Nice post...
In thinking about the decision Irsay has to make, I have tried to find a good reasons why they should bring Manning back. That Manning used to be one of the greatest of all time, is the only one I can find. Every other factor involved, points toward drafting Luck as their franchise Qb and starting him game one next season.
by thomasezekiel77 on Feb 12, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
Great post
In short, it’s time. You make the best post in the thread.
I feel so bad for Indy fans if Peyton is retained. They’re SO SO lucky to be staring Luck in the face at 1. His floor is Eli Manning…. his ceiling is scary to think of. Start building the team around him now—the signs are saying it’s time to part ways with the legend, who’s given about all you can expect a single player to bloom and give when you draft him. It’s been 14 years.
http://diamondhoggers.com
by TheNaturalMevs on Feb 12, 2012 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
100% Speculation.
Luck has never played a single down of NFL football and he’s already as good as a 2 time Super Bowl Champion and MVP?
His floor is getting injured and never fulfilling his expectations, or never reaching them.
It’s pretty ignorant to say that his floor is Eli Manning. We would be lucky if he reaches Eli Manning’s level.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 13, 2012 9:43 AM EST up reply actions
NONSENSE
getting injured and not playing again can happen to any player or draft pick at any time. So what is the solution, not draft anyone because they may be a bust? Luck is an elite prospect that should, in time develop into, a very good to great quarterback.
The Colts are unbelievably fortunate to be in a position to get him. Teams can go decades without a franchise QB. The Colts have a chance to follow up one of the greatest QBs of all time with another franchise QB. Colt’s fans should take a step back and contemplate that.
the point that went over your head is that those are the worst case scenarios aka the floor which was in response to the guy saying the floor was Eli Manning, who again we would be lucky if he turns into a player of that quality.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 13, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
WELL NOT A KNOCK
on ELi, who is very good, and plays on a team with a very good defense but Luck has a good chance to be better than him. As a draft prospect, Luck is the better athlete and had better passing career than Eli. His draft grades will be better than Eli’s across the board. If Luck was in Eli’s draft class he would have been drafted first. Luck would have also been drafted before Newton last year.
Luck has a good chance to be very special.
I took the floor comment by the other poster, as saying Luck would be as good as Eli on day 1, and I don’t see that at all.
Yes he has the chance to be special, but his worst case scenario is most certainly not as good as Eli Manning.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 13, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
well said. although i don't think (even in the face of reason and logic) it will change minds
just like religion, people who are stomping the stump for Peyton are basing it on blind faith!
Two things-
1. No Manning (Archie or Peyton) ever said that the Colts shouldn’t take a QB with the first overall pick. All they ever said was that Luck was good enough to play for any NFL team from day 1. Both Manning and Luck have been quoted as saying they can absolutely play together and coexist. Luck has been attending Manning’s passing academy for awhile now and the two families are already well acquainted.
2. Releasing Manning does not “clear a ton of cap space by 2013.” Did you even read his article? I won’t argue that the Colts should take Luck. I think that’s a given. If Peyton cannot play, that’s a whole different story – then Luck has to play right away. How anyone could argue that a prospect (elite or otherwise) is better than a healthy Peyton Manning is beyond me. How Colts fans can say that a healthy Peyton Manning should play for another team is REALLY beyond me.
Cutting him now, most certainly clears a lot of money in 2013. 18 million in 2013. It’s not a huge savings in 2012, but by doing it now, will clear money in 2013,14, 15.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 13, 2012 9:37 AM EST up reply actions
If we'd never taken Manning at all we could have saved hundreds of millions...
The real point from the team’s perspective isn’t about saving money – it’s about getting value for that money. Manning has proven himself to be a winner – a once in forever kind of guy. I’m not taking anything away from Luck because every Colts fan wants him to be great, but he’s never played a single down in the NFL.
Since the Colts can afford both, it makes more sense for the Colts to have Manning and Luck thus giving Luck a chance to grow into his role rather than just throwing him to the wolves and wishing for the best.
I guess we have a difference of opinion of “Affording both”. Manning has to play till his final year before it becomes feasible to move him either by cutting him, retirement, or a trade if the option bonus is picked up.
The Colts are better off with
A ) Manning Orlovsky, QB 3
B) Luck, Vet Back up, QB 3
More than
C) Manning, Luck, QB 3 if they choose to carry one at that point.
If they pick up Manning’s option and draft Luck at the end of the year they will have spent 83 million on the quarterback position in 2 years.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 13, 2012 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
No worries.
Assuming Manning can play, I don’t see the Colts carrying a 3rd QB into the season. Like years past, they may have 3 during the preseason, but I doubt the 3rd makes it onto the active roster for the regular season.
Concerning the money- whether $83 million is too much or not is a question for Irsay to decide. When I say it’s affordable, I only comment on that which counts against the cap because it has a direct impact on Grigson’s ability to bring in quality players.
We all know Luck is coming...
He doesn’t not have to be as good as Manning to win…he has to be better than Gabbert Locker and Schaub to get to the playoffs.
Brady is in the later stages of his career and will also face diminishing skill in 3-4 years. Many argue that Big Ben is already facing an erosion due to his limited mobility and injuries…
Right now Houston has the most talent in the AFC. Their window is open to win a SB. But since Schaub isn’t a superstar it’s not going to be a 7-8 year window..
The AFC will be wide open soon. Brady, the Steelers and Ravens D are all getting old. The Chargers Are wasting Rivers’ career….Are you really scared of Andy Dalton Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco?
Philip Rivers is good but they will be firing Turner and starting over soon…Its not like Luck has to go through Eli, Cam, Brees, Ryan, Rodgers and Stafford alone with Harbaugh coached teams…
Celebrate! I think the Colts can dominate the AFC for a while if Luck is as good as they hope!
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 10:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions
watch Brady's shoulder. its been an issue
Even more than in the past couple of years. It sucks. They all get old and hurt
Dear Diary, Kevin is so hot. Today he was raking the yard. God I wish he'd throw me into that pile of leaves.
by GotDebt on Feb 13, 2012 1:03 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
The balance of power has shifted conferences....
You make a great point. The NFC now has better play at the Qb position and some of the formerly elite teams in the AFC appear to be facing a period of decline very soon.
by thomasezekiel77 on Feb 12, 2012 11:13 PM EST reply actions
All the more reason...
To rebuild. By the time Luck is in year 4 he could be the best QB In the AFC as Brady and Big Ben will be near the end…I think he will own Flacco Dalton Sanchez Locker Gabbert Tebow or whoever…
The Colts are really setting up for a great run if Luck is good!
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 12, 2012 11:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
watching an Irsay retrip
Dear Diary, Kevin is so hot. Today he was raking the yard. God I wish he'd throw me into that pile of leaves.
by GotDebt on Feb 13, 2012 12:56 AM EST via mobile reply actions
christ. watching an Irsay retrospective on ESPN
The boy used to dress like a pimp. Cmon. You have custom suits made and you wear that terrible chalk white pin stripe.
A nice navy blue bespoke suit with a sharp white shirt is all you need. Leave the black shirts and paisley ties in the closet
Dear Diary, Kevin is so hot. Today he was raking the yard. God I wish he'd throw me into that pile of leaves.
by GotDebt on Feb 13, 2012 1:00 AM EST via mobile reply actions
BTW
Powers, Collie and McAfee triggered incentives, and will have a base salary increase of 0.7 million.
http://www.macsfootballblog.com/2012/02/joe-staley-justin-tuck-asante-samuel.html
Thank you for breaking it down!
Presenting the numbers and showing people that it’s not a money issue (like Irsay has been saying all along…) is exactly what fans need to read. It has always been about his health.
There has been way too much speculation and gut feeling being presented as hard fact and evidence. Your article was refreshing.
It is a money issue.
51 million in cash and over 22 million against the salary cap is more than foolish.
When you consider that Irsay paid qb’s over 31 million in cash last year. Of course most of that is Manning, but it is not feasible to pay that much $ to that position whether it is actual cash or salary cap $’s.
If Manning were making 1/2 of what he was then it wouldn’t be an issue, but as it stands, Manning & Luck, would be one of the two highest starters and by far the most expensive back up.
Having them both on the roster would be foolish all around.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 13, 2012 9:15 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t need to read the article. I know the subject matter of the article. Dispute the #’s above. Good luck with that.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 13, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not going to rewrite the article.
The numbers are clear and, as usual, emiller has written a pretty good article. It’s there if you’re interested, if not – no worries. Have a good one.
You are the one that is ignoring the numbers not me.
If I would have written the article I would have used more accurate #‘s as opposed to rounding. I would have included the other QB’s that either were on the roster or could potentially be on the roster. I’ve seen this topic discussed in various places, and to be quite frank, this isn’t the best that I’ve seen concerning it.
So again ignore the #’s and facts if you wish.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 13, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
You refuse to read the article, but I'm ignoring the numbers?
How much Irsay paid to QB’s overall is irrelevant. That’s between Irsay and his pocketbook. How much of that is going to count against the cap is what matters because that has a direct influence on Grigson’s ability to bring in quality players.
This is a QB driven league and a healthy Manning is worth every penny. The cap hit for Manning and Luck is only foolish if Manning cannot play, thus forcing the Colts to carry a 3rd QB.
Like I said, the numbers are clearly spelled out in the article. If you’re not going to read the article, then you have no basis for argument. Either way, I’m done arguing. Take care, friend.
I’ve read the article to start with, how would I know that it contained rounded #‘s instead of actual #’s without reading it.
It’s relevant when it counts against the salary cap.
It is not a sound financial decision to have both Manning via option bonus and Luck via draft on the roster.
It is not a sound football decision to do so either once you consider and COMPREHEND the salary cap implications of doing so.
I’m not arguing. I’m trying to educate. You simply don’t get it. So enjoy being uninformed. Again, the #‘s in THIS article aren’t entirely accurate, they are close, but not entirely accurate.
by Meat Tuperello on Feb 14, 2012 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
Uninformed? (Sigh...)
You just contradicted yourself and attempted to counterpoint my argument with my argument.
I understand how the cap system works. Luck and Manning would represent approximately $22 million against the cap next year. Again, this is only foolish if Manning cannot play, thus forcing the Colts to carry a 3rd QB. What I don’t get is how you think thinly veiled jabs at my intelligence support your argument.
It’s foolish whether Manning is 100% or not. It’s foolish to tie that much money up in to the Quarterback position.
Manning would be among the top 2-3 highest paid starters.
Luck would bey far and away the highest paid back up.
It’s either or, and Irsay’s banking on Luck and an extended future more than Manning and an immediate future. Will it work out? who knows, but the article you are glowing about isn’t the best source on the topic/
So yes based on many of your comments in this thread alone, you are still uninformed…
If you are basing your knowledge on this article, you are still uninformed because the #‘s are 100% accurate. My #’s are, with the exception of Luck’s being an educated guess based off the Cam Newton deal and common sense.
by Meat Tuperello on Mar 1, 2012 3:22 AM EST up reply actions
The problem isn’t Luck’s number. At $5 million a year, he’s a bargain. The problem is Peyton’s $28 million roster bonus. There’s no way any reasonable person could justify spending $28 million on one player who may never play again and who no one will know whether he can play again for months, at best.
The absolute best case scenario for the Colts is to get Peyton to agree to an incentive laden restructuring of that $28 million over two years. Games started, Pro Bowls, Super Bowls, etc., and draft Luck as the future and an insurance policy. After two years, Manning hangs em up, Luck takes over, and leads the Colts to another decade of dominance.
We rise. They fall.
Proud to have my own tag on KSK
http://monkeybiziu.deviantart.com
Irsay spent 26 mil on him and he didn't play all year
I think it’s safe to say that won’t happen this year. Who cares how Jim Irsay spends his money? What matters is the cap number and the bonus, while still a sizable figure, can be spread out. If Irsay has the $$$, then I could not care less what he does with it. He’d probably spend it on a famous guitar that Jimi Hendrix played in his final concert or something anyway…
good analysis
But i feel as if it is missing a bit of context. I think it needs to be paired up with our actual cap situation to be more relevant. ~20% is alot , no doubt, but at the same time, putting it together with our cap situation (which right now is disastrous) and our roster situation (where we definitely do not have the level of talent we need to be a competitive football team) and that makes it all the worse to pay Peyton. Better to flush the team of overpriced contracts, and rebuild and go younger than to keep us against the cap and unable to sign our own players or free agents.
by coltsfanbeforemanning on Feb 13, 2012 3:37 PM EST reply actions
I have the Colts at 21 million under the cap (counting 3*1,5 extension +2,5 carry over)
7,5 will go to rookies, 3,5 needs to remain to get through the season, that leaves 10 million to maneuver. 5,2 can be cleared if Bullitt and Brackett are cut after June 1. Freeney and Manning can clear some more money.
You are a waste...
Because you cited Beckham playing in MLS which is equivalent to single A baseball to prove your argument…
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 13, 2012 3:46 PM EST reply actions
This is getting old....
I am as guilty as anyone who wastes times posting on the “decision” Irsay has to make. I wish I were interested in something that I could actually control or that would make a positive change in my life. Unfortunately, I spend most of my time thinking about Peyton and the Colts. At this point, there will be very little information that will change the way fans think. You either think they need to bring Peyton back or you think the franchise will move in another direction. This subject is almost beginning to take on religous overtones because a person’s stance is based upon deeply held beliefs. There are fans who want to keep Peyton even in the face of overwhelming evidence to suggest that doing so is a bad business decision. The facts are all out there. We just have to wait for March 8th. In the meantime, let’s start discussing less controversial topics. For instance, what are your guys thoughts on Roe v. Wade?
by thomasezekiel77 on Feb 13, 2012 8:19 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
good post thomas
you made a good point. a lot of these “colts” fans think of manning as god. its embarrassing
You are correct.
At the same time, there are people who think that Luck is guaranteed to be an MVP quarterback, which is also embarrassing.
by James Broschat on Feb 14, 2012 2:06 AM EST up reply actions
If you look at the big picture
Based off the the formation we have now which is that Luck is the highest touted prospect by many GMs, analysts etc since Peyton Manninng or even John Elway along with the fact that there is uncertainty at this point of how much arm strength Peyton has or will have moving forward…the long term strategy points to drafting Luck and cutting Peyton.
If he was completely healthy and anticipated playing 4 years it would be a different story. But even then he is an aging QB and to expect him to carry the franchise like he did at 29,30 and 31 isn’t realistic. An aging QB needs a great line and power running game and can’t throw 45 times a game. Colts’ line stinks…they have some developing prospects but they are not good not are the RBs…
So if you factor in the current roster plus the fact that Manning is aging and realistically has 2 at best Pro Bowl MVP caliber seasons left along with maybe 2 very solid seasons…where at worst he doesn’t play effectively again. Then factor in the cost…it’s not as good as a deal as moving on to Luck who if he is good solidifies the QB position for 12 years IMO.
If the Colts were a viable SB contender then eff Luck and go for a title! But thu have been expose as a unit that needs significant upgrades in strategy and talent. Getting Manning off the books frees up cap space. It also gives Luck a few years to take his lumps. If Indy drafts well and uses the cap space wisely by year three they should be a playoff team…
Yes, the Colts could find a QB next year or in the 5th round. But the issue there is its also a gamble. Luck is the best person to replace Manning and he is available now…whoever replaced Manning will be a risk because they may not pan out. But Luck is an elite prospect and also can play from day one.
If you really take sentiment out of it you are lookin at a healthy Manning lead Colts team winning 8-11 games the next year or two they are not a SB caliber team from a talent standpoint…so you are wagering 2-3 possible playoff appearances against having a QB for 12-15 years and a rebuilt team that will only win 5-7 games the next two years but after that could be dominant in a weakening AFC
by (206)NightRidah on Feb 14, 2012 2:54 AM EST up reply actions
You're absolutely right ...
… and for the record, I am pro-choice, and based on their recent actions, I’ve decided to tell the Komen Foundation that they can kiss my donations goodbye and …. and OHMYGOD we just turned into the Huffington Post!!! WTF??? =)
manning as a god
I agree with both you guys… Some of the colts fans just like the colts cause of Peyton, which is understandable, but when those people go all over and say that I will never be a colts fan if they let Peyton go, that’s where it pisses me off… I love Peyton, and want him to win, but nothing against him, but if we have a better chance to win without him down the road, then that’s the route I want the team to take… It’s gonna be interesting to see though, cause that being said, it would be nice to see him back in that colts blue uniform
by michamat3 on Feb 13, 2012 9:44 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Not sure if its been mentioned
I’m too lazy to read through the comments, but part of the new deal allows teams to carry over unused cap space. The Colts have 2.5 million from last year that they can carry over to this year. Not much, but it’s something.
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