Lost in the constant drumbeat on this site on how the Colts MUST dump All-Pro Peyton Manning for the UNPROVEN commodity of Andrew Luck is the track record of QBs taken with the “first overall” pick in the NFL Draft.

What it shows is that Luck is not a sure thing…….. far from it. In fact, statistically, he has a much higher chance of NEVER becoming a Franchise QB than every approaching the level of play we have seen from Peyton Manning.

Reviewing every NFL Draft since 1970, there have been 19 Quarterbacks taken with the first overall pick. In other words, all the “experts”, draft evaluators, team scouts and personnel thought these 19 players were either A) the Best player in the Entire Draft or B) at the minimum the best QB in the Entire Draft

Needless to say, the so-called experts get it wrong much more often than they ever get it right.

In my opinion, the only reason to dump Manning and replace him to be Luck is if he is indeed a “Franchise QB” (i.e., a consistent Pro-Bowler who will lead the franchise for the next 10 years and become a perennial playoff contender)

To jettison Manning for any other kind of QB is a waste, especially given the NFL’s record of producing starting QBs from elsewhere in the draft.

See below:

So, of the 19 QBs taken first overall, a grand total of 5 have become Franchise QB’s (Bradshaw, Elway, Aikman, Peyton and Eli)

The other 11 quarterbacks have NEVER became a Franchise QBs, several outright busts. Yes, some have become decent NFL QBs, perhaps even making a Pro-Bowl or two, but not a containing a decade-long level of success. (I know Jim Plunkett won two Super Bowls with the Raiders, but don’t forget he was cut by the 49ers and never made a Pro-Bowl) Michael Vick’s known personal and injury issues keeps him just out of the “Franchise QB” category, and he has never taken his team to a Super Bowl. Drew Bledsoe had some nice seasons, but again, never sustained it over an extended period of time (and was benched in favor of Tom Brady)

5 Definite YES Franchise QBs10

11 Definite NO Franchise QBs

The three unknown QBS (Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford and Cam Newton) simply mean its too early in their careers to judge either way. Cam Newton had an amazing first year, but we don’t know if he’ll regress in his second like Sam Bradford.

So, of the 19 QBs taken with the #1 Pick, only 5 of them have become the type of QB we can reasonably say is worthy of replacing Peyton Manning.

In other words, we are willing to get rid of the “The Franchise”, Peyton Manning, one of the greatest to every play his position, for drafting a QB that historically has a 26% chance of being anywhere near as good.

In fact, #1 Overall QB picks have almost as high of a rate of being a complete BUST (21%) as they do of being a Franchise QB.

Bad idea.

In my opinion, if Manning is healthy, us your top pick in the 2nd Round (#33 overall) to pick a QB, or trade out of the #1 Overall pick for two First Round picks, use one of them to upgrade the offensive line or WR position and the second first round pick on a QB to groom down the road.

Either way, lets calm down on the “Andrew Luck is the next Peyton Manning” talk. Statistically, his chances are about 1 in 4 in becoming even a Franchise QB, much less one at the level of Manning.