The Colts are going to draft Andrew Luck No. 1 overall in the 2012 NFL Draft.
You can write that down. No, check that. You can chisel that in marble. It will happen.
The reason it will happen is because, for the last two plus years, Andrew Luck has played at a very high level. He's shown remarkable consistency regardless of circumstances. It didn't matter if Jim Harbaugh or David Shaw was his head coach. Luck still went out there and threw for 3,300-plus yards, 30-plus TDs, and completed 70% of his passes the last two years. Remarkable consistency, and it is that consistency which people often cite as giving him a leg-up on other players, like Baylor's Robert Griffin III.
RG3 had a spectacular junior year last year, but that was the only year where he put up big, impressive numbers on par with Luck's. Other quarterback prospects from years past in the same boat with RG3, in that regard, are named Leaf and Harrington. I'm not saying Griffin will bust like those guys did, but a BIG red flag about early first round quarterbacks is often, 'How consistent was he in college year-to-year?'
Want another comparison between RG3 and Ryan Leaf? Like Leaf in 1998, who trash-talked Peyton Manning prior to the April draft, Griffin is yapping about Andrew Luck.
In an interview with Don Banks of SI, Griffin made it clear that he wants to play in Indianapolis next season. He wants the Colts to draft him No. 1 overall so that he can, once again, 'beat' Andrew Luck they way he 'beat' him to the Heisman Trophy last season.
"Perception is reality, and at the beginning of the year I wasn't on many radars," Griffin said. "I did have a lot more ground to cover than he did. [Luck] was the de facto Heisman winner and the de facto No. 1 pick. We already took one of those from him and we plan to continue to go out there and do that. Whether it's with the first pick in the draft, a playoff win, or who goes to the first Super Bowl.
Now, even though that statement reads as a bit cocky and arrogant, I'm not going to bash Griffin for saying it. He should want to go No. 1 overall. If Luck goes No. 1 (and, again, he will), that is the Colts telling Griffin that Luck is better. Naturally, the head strong and confident Griffin would consider this a slight.
"I will use that as a driving force, whether I go first, second, third or fourth in the draft. The fact I wasn't out there with people believing in me is going to be the key to drive me to be a better player.
"I hate to talk about myself like that, but if I had to straight up tell a head coach or an owner why they should take me, it's because I'm the best in everything I've done," Griffin said. "I'm the most accurate. I have the strongest arm. I may not be the tallest. I may not be the heaviest. But I'm the best quarterback in the nation, and if they pass on me, then I understand. But I'm going to go out and be the best quarterback for somebody else.
Again, nothing wrong with him saying this kind of stuff. In fact, I'm sure a few of you out there are warming up to RG3 based solely on these comments.
However, the reality is Griffin is not the best QB entering the NFL draft this year. Luck is. The Heisman Trophy means nothing in the evaluation of QB talent. In the end, it all comes down to consistency, something Griffin himself agrees with:
"It's about consistency. And I was able to go out and make the nation a believer. I was able to make my own teammates believers, too. And that means even more to me, that they regarded me as the best quarterback in the nation."
And, speaking of consistency:
Andrew Luck (playing in the PAC12)
2010: 70% completion, 3,338 yards, 9 yards a completion, 32 TDs, 8 INTs
2011: 71% completion, 3,517 yards, 9 yards a completion, 37 TDs, 10 INTs
Robert Griffin III (playing in Big 12)
2010: 67% completion, 3,501 yards, 8 yards a completion, 22 TDs, 8 INTs
2011: 72% completion, 4,293 yards, 10 yards a completion, 37 TDs, 6 INTs
RG3 won't become another Ryan Leaf. I'm pretty certain of that. However, he's still very boom or bust as a prospect. RG3 made a big leap from sophomore to junior at Baylor. The question is, can he remain consistent? With Luck, you know what you're getting.
If RG3 wants to use the fact that Luck is simply a better prospect as a motivational thing to help him get better, good. Good for him. I hope he does well.
He's just not getting drafted No. 1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts.