I think it’s unlikely Jim Irsay was interested in watching Peyton Manning do box jumps, or a 3-mile run.

If his throws are getting better, this might be a good time for some of you “experts” to review your pontifications on what you “do” and “don’t do” when your team is “rebuilding.” I still don’t believe that Irsay will be able to let Manning go play football anywhere else.

He is the first memory Colts fans have of seeing a Colts team dominate on the field. Seeing him come back and stomp the Colts, playing for the KC Chiefs, or some equally despicable franchise, while the Colts struggle with a rookie QB or maybe one who can’t live up to his billing, will be too much for these fans.

Irsay, may be forced to consider packing up again, and he knows it. How would sportswriters, and bloggers, like you, treat Irsay if that happened. If Luck turns out a lot more average than anyone expected, while Manning is back to being Manning, somewhere else, and the Colts suck. You’re going to feast on him, aren’t you? Make no mistake. He knows that too!

*many sources, kravitz, etc, are saying manning’s arm is nowhere near ready
*if his arm was ready or near ready, 18 and his camp would have mentioned this and it would be all over the place.

Well this is good news but either way it doesn’t mean he’ll be healthy enough for Irsay to take a chance on March 8th either.

Few people – including Irsay – seriously doubt Manning’s ability to play this year. It is just that Manning’s not being full strength by March 8 or sometime similar would make the decision to release Manning more palatable from a PR standpoint, by using the uncertainty as an excuse to say “We didn’t have a choice/our hands were tied/we just couldn’t take the risk.”

Instead, the real issues: Manning is 36. The oldest QB to win a Super Bowl was 38. The Colts stink, making rebuilding in time for Manning to make a realistic run (no more than 4 years and as few as 2) extremely unlikely, and even if the Colts did have a Super Bowl caliber roster and Manning playing at a high level – say in year 3 – that is no guarantee of a Super Bowl appearance or victory (as New Orleans, Baltimore and New England fans this year can attest … I left Pittsburgh and Houston off because of injuries, Green Bay because of their defense and San Fran because of Alex Smith).

We really are talking about a very small window here. Say the Colts get both Cleveland’s #1 picks this year plus their #1 next year, giving them 4 #1s and two #2s the next two seasons: 6 high draft picks. Even if they hit on all those picks and get 6 starters, who wins the Super Bowl with 6 rookie/2nd year starters?

You can keep Manning and try to win a Super Bowl in the next 4 years against incredible odds. Or you can let Manning walk, use his salary to sign free agents, and have a much bigger window than 4 years with Luck. If Luck doesn’t pan out, you get another QB, which is what you would have had to do to replace Manning anyway.

A lot of folks seem to think that retaining Manning will allow them to party like it is 2006, or at least 2010. Not near the case. Manning is older, and the roster is nowhere near as talented.