EDIT: A few quotes from a couple NFL head coaches I heard today.
Mike Shannahan: "Here's a guy who can make all the throws"
Jason Garrett: "Far beyond his years... seems to make a lot of veteran quarterback decisions"
Pat Shurmur: "I think if you're looking to find fault with Andrew Luck, you're nitpicking"
Prospect status: Elite ceiling, high floor
NFL status: Immediate starter
Challenges: The expectations will be tremendous, even as he joins probably the NFL's weakest roster. Luck is improving -- he is not a finished product. The grade reflects his skills, but he is still a rookie, not a refined NFL QB. Given the hype, people will need to maintain perspective.
Breakdown: Not to pile on, but Luck is simply the best I have ever studied. He's very refined in his approach, and has been exposed to a graduate level offensive system at Stanford. A line-of-scrimmage mastery far beyond his years will allow his NFL offense to be multiple (no limitations) his first year in league. Off-platform accuracy and ball speed will enable him to perform well within a cluttered pocket and amid chaos plays. Luck excelled at P.A.C.E. opportunities (plays after critical errors), going an incredible 17 of 20 with 4 TD passes in games following a pick-six last season. The guy doesn't flinch. Critical situation numbers (third down and red zone) reflect the synergy of his functional football intelligence and physical gifts. He is one of the few college quarterbacks that truly grasps progression passing; his eyes and feet are tied together.
I think he summed up my own thoughts pretty well. I've seen nearly every start for Luck over the last two years, and about There are just crucial things in his game that you can't ignore or brush off because of Griffin's better physical tools. Hate how often Dilfer uses this term, but Luck is truly a rare 'surgeon'.
Robert Griffin III
Prospect status: Elite ceiling, solid floor
NFL status: Immediate starter
Breakdown: A very productive passer and playmaker, RG3 has dynamic arm talent (an ability to mix proper pace, touch, trajectory) and athleticism. His greatest strength isn't his legs, it's his feel and accuracy on the deep pass. His arm allows him to threaten every part of the field. A highly intelligent kid who mastered his offense at Baylor, which shows me he has the tools to master an NFL one. I love that he is comfortable in his own skin -- it'll help him immediately resonate with every part of the locker room. NFL offenses will be able to expand splash play potential immediately because of his physical skills and he'll be able to evolve quickly because of his cognitive skills. His floor isn't a basement because he's so talented. He'll be able to get the most out of situations with both his arm, and his legs.
Challenges: RG3's biggest challenge will be his learning curve in progression passing. The way Baylor's offense worked, he did none of it in college. Lower body mechanics are also something he needs to work on, but the Shanahans actually coach this as well as anybody.
Once again agree, with the emphasis being on the floor. Luck's floor is certainly higher, and even with the arguments of potential, it's a huge positive. The part about progression passing is one I also think has been overlooked by people believe RG3 is a better prospect than Luck. It's looking at both players in a shell and judging them simply off potential, assuming RG3 will fully mesh into an NFL system as good or better than Luck. If that's the case, RG3 will likely be better than Luck. But it's a huge assumption, and we've seen it time and time again with great, physically gifted passers who haven't met that 'potential' everyone believed they had.