So it seems as though everyone is convinced that this draft has 2 sure fire QB's of the future who will create a marvelous rivalry for the next decade (and a third, Tannehill, has the chance to make it big too).
But is this really an accurate statement?
I decided to project 5 years into the future to actually what the NFL at QB will look like (yes, this is pure speculation, but hopefully accurate). Specifically I wanted to look at the cream of the crop. To me, elite QB means you're in the top 5. While pro-bowl caliber would extend out to the top 10. Ideally, our QB's of the future should be in these divisions.
Anyways in five years, Manning, Brady, and Brees will be gone. Some of their younger counterparts, specifically Eli (36) and Big Ben (35), should still be in the league as the commanding veterans. Pencil those guys in to be top 10, maybe even elite. We could add Schaub and Rivers, but frankly neither have accomplished much so far so I think they would be on their way out.
Aaron Rodgers would arguably be the best in the league at 33. And he's already elite, so that makes roughly 3 top QB's so far. Then you have the younger studs who, I think, are sure to be dominant - Stafford and Ryan.
And then slightly younger guys who are still not fully proven, but based on their talent and potential, its hard to argue they won't be among the leagues best. Add Cam Newton and Sam Bradford (little hesitant on him, but its not a huge stretch to expect him to perform - I think he'll turn it on soon). So far that brings us to 7 QBs who should be in the Pro-Bowl/Elite category in 5 years.
We can add others to this list. Dalton had a fantastic rookie season and I see him improve enough to where we can put him in the top 10. Ponder seems to be a solid QB but probably won't be top 10. There's some other names you could throw around too... but let's just assume we have identified 7-8 of the best QB's come 5 years.
Now in five years Luck and RG3 will be well established in the league. They are expected to be on strong playoff teams, and, more significantly, be amongst the best in their positions. Adding them will bring our count to ten. And dont forget guys who are still in college, like Matt Barkley (who, if he declared, would be the #2 QB on the board).
Keeping this in persective, can we honestly conclude that Luck vs RG3 is the rivalry that everyone will talk about? I won't hide it - in my opinion, in five years, Luck will supplant all those QB's except Rodgers and maybe Stafford (and Eli and Newton). I'm not sure where RG3 will fall in that list because, frankly, I don't see why he's any better a prospect coming out of college than Bradford, or how he would be any better than a veteran Eli or Ben.
And regardless of that, it should be clear that neither will really revolutionize the league. There will be a number of solid and elite QB's during the first half of their career. So I'm really confused by those fans who want to sit on a fence and concede both QB's are worth drafting and will be superstars. I don't see it happening. And unlike RG3, I don't see a great rivalry between him and Luck. Also, the chances of us having so many elite QBs in such a short time (Netwon, Luck, Griffin, and Barkley - yes he will be very hyped and is very good) is unlikely.
Moore said, when asked about the RG3 rumors, that if we take Luck, we will never look back. I agree with him. We need to be definite in our desires and not seek a middle ground. Not now at least... maybe once their careers are over, we can accept the great things the other has done. But as of right now, the only contemporary player Luck should aim at is Aaron Rodgers. Because that may very well be the rivalry of the next half decade.
On a sidenote, some people are saying "lucks the better player, but RG3 will do better his first season because he's going to a better team." I think such comments are completely baseless. Dalton made the playoffs this season. But you'd be nuts to think he had a better season than Newton. So maybe RG3 will win more games (but don't see the Colts short, we don't know what our team looks like on the field yet). And I guarantee he has better rushing stats. But when you look at that QB rating and TDs and INTs and yardage and such... I don't see how anyone can claim that Luck, as the better QB, will have a worse rookie year than RG3.
Just some thoughts.