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2012 NFL Week Four Picks, Picks, And More Picks

Time for weekly picks from the Winning Stats Predictor. Who does it think has the best chance of winning in Week 4?

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Pick of the Week: Dirty Birds Vs. Cam's Pouty-Face

[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer Christopher Price into the fold. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. You should listen to him if you, you know, hang with degenerate gamblers, and stuff. -Brad]


Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (3-0)

Pick – Falcons (-7)

Pick of the Week: FIVE STARS!!!

Let me start this by asking what else the Atlanta Falcons (3-0) have to do to get the credit they so rightfully deserve? Well, I suppose crushing the lowly Carolina Panthers (1-2) couldn’t hurt, right?

It’s funny, because every time I hear someone discussing this game in favor of the Panthers (both of the people I’ve heard speak such ridiculousness), all I hear over and over is how great of an athlete Carolina’s QB Cam Newton (78.3 QB Rating – 798 Yards, 2 TD’s 5 INT’s) is and/or can be. Great, good for him… now sit back and let me tell you a little tale of Cpt. Ryan and his close friends: Mr. White, Sir Turner, Mr. Jones, Sr. Gonzalez and company.

You know, I won’t insult your intelligence and will assume you already are aware of the damage that the NFL league-leading "Matty Ice’s" (114 QB Rating – 793 Yards, 8 TD’s, 1 INT) tends to do - especially when at home. I’ll also assume you understand just how terrible Carolina’s rushing defense is at the moment (27th overall, allowing 139.3 YPG). Hell, don’t even get me started on Atlanta’s receiving core… I mean, who in the holy hell do you choose to cover?!

All that aside, what I think will be the key to dismantling the Panthers this week is the absolute dominance Atlanta’s defensive secondary has shown over the past three games. Right, Peyton? Together, DB’s Samuel, Robinson and DeCoud have combined for 7 interceptions and held Philip Rivers’ (86.5 QB Rating – 688 Yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT) usually high-powered passing game to a measly 173 yards, with 2 interceptions coming last week, holding a team that was averaging 30 points-per-game to merely a field goal… in San Diego, no less.

Ok, ok… I guess I should at least be less biased and give you some feedback on what Carolina has going for them. For starters, RB Jonathan Stewart (51 Yards, 0 TD’s) is returning from injury for Sunday’s game. And… ummm… well… it looks like we covered all of the positives. That was brief.

You have to take Atlanta to cover in this one, especially being an absolute turning point for this franchise to look like a powerhouse, even if it is against Carolina. These numbers are just like Shakira's hips, gentlemen… they just don’t lie!

Just So Ya’ Know:

  • Falcons are 3-0 ATS this season
  • Panthers are 0-4 ATS in last 4 meetings in Atlanta
  • Panthers WR Steve Smith was shown verbally destroying QB Cam Newton on the sidelines last week – the chemistry on the team is simply not there

The Pats Own The Bills, NO-GO BUFFALO!

[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer Christopher Price into the fold. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. You should listen to him if, you know, it's your thing to hang with degenerate gamblers, and stuff. -Brad]

Patriots (1-2) @ Bills (2-1)

Pick – Patriots (-4)

Rock Solid Pick: Four Stars (Out of Five)

The New England Patriots (1-2), on the verge of their first 3-game losing skid since Indiana University played in the NCAA National Championship game (yep, THAT long ago - 2002), have every reason to have a chip on their shoulders when they head to Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday to completely dismantle a C.J. Spiller-less Buffalo Bills (2-1).

Don’t let Buffalo’s record fool you – with both wins coming from terrible squads (Chiefs, 1-2 and Browns, 0-3) nor the fact that they’re currently ranked 3rd in overall rushing yards (178.0 YPG) in the NFL – key word being currently. With leading rusher C.J. Spiller (308 Yards, 3 TD’s) confirmed out for Sunday and Fred Jackson just returning from injury, I can only assume RB Tashard Choice (131 Yards, 0 TD’s) will be handling the load for the Bills, which doesn’t bode well for the upcoming 7th ranked rushing defense (81.0 YPG) they’re about to face lead by Vince Wilfork and company.

I feel like fans and bettors alike got to see what Buffalo was truly made of whenever Spiller went out due to injury nearing the end of the 1st quarter last Sunday in Cleveland, aiding in Buffalo’s 14-0 lead at the time. In the next 3 quarters, the Bills could merely string together 10-points, going a horrendous 2-5 in the red zone and should be thankful Cleveland is God-awful, only managing to throw up a whopping 240 yards of total offense! To me, this tells us all that without Spiller, they’re right back to the Buffalo Bills we’ve all come to loathe over the years.

Add all of this to the fact that Tom Brady (97.0 QB Rating, 887 Yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT) and Wes Welker (16 Rec., 251 Yards, 0 TD’s) seemed to find their stride again, connecting for an impressive 142 yards on just 8 completions (it’s obvious someone wants more playing time) in last week’s loss to Baltimore and I see this one ending with a double-digit victory for the Pats.

Just So Ya’ Know:

  • Patriots two losses this season were by a combined total of 3-points to teams with a combined record of 5-1
  • Patriots are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 match-ups against the Bills
  • Patriots are 20-2 overall in their last 22 meetings with the Bills

NFL Picks: In NFC East, Road Teams Rule

[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer Christopher Price into the fold. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. You should listen to him if, you know, it's your thing to hang with degenerate gamblers, and stuff. -Brad]

Giants (2-1) @ Eagles (2-1)

Pick – Giants (+2.5)

Good Call: Three Stars (Out of Five)

Plain and simple, if you’re telling me that I must take the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants (2-1), who have NFL passing leader Eli Manning (97.1 QB Rating - 1,011 Yards, 5 TD’s, 3 INT’s) at the helm, all with a solid defensive unit behind them AND a few points to go along with it, I’ll take the combo platter!

I understand that playing in the confines of Philadelphia is a tough environment for anyone, no matter the last name of the gunslinger. I must also give the Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) defensive squad the respect they’ve rightfully earned, ranking 3rd in passing yards allowed. But, they’ve also haven’t faced the Giants… and more importantly, they’ve yet to hold onto the ball! The Eagles have turned the pigskin over 12 times in the past 3 games, and after the absolute drumming they took when out West against the Arizona Cardinals (3-0), a team who I still believe is all smoke and mirrors, I personally think that neither Michael Vick (66.3 QB Rating - 905 Yards, 3 TD’s, 6 INT’s) or the shotty offensive line they’ve got "protecting" him will be able to maneuver around the fast-paced, Pierre-Paul/Tuck/Umenyiora-filled pass-rushers. For the love of God, did you watch how the Eagles handled the ball anytime they were even in the vicinity of the red zone?! Pathetic.

Oh yeah, and who could forget about the ongoing feud between DE Osi Umenyiora and Philadelphia’s RB LeSean McCoy (261 Yards, 1 TD) that’s ready to explode? That’s a disastrous fight of beastly men that I see blowing up in this one… grab the popcorn!

This should be a great game to watch, being a fan of crushing blows. That being said, I don’t see Michael Vick making it out alive. He’s already, like always, not at full-capacity and this isn’t the ‘01-’02 NFL you’re playing in anymore, Vick… people are onto your little shenanigans (yes, I just said shenanigans), especially teams like the reigning champions who’ve had an extended week to prepare. Besides, the last time I was confused as hell to why the Giants were underdogs was about a week ago when they were in Carolina - where they beat the total hell out of the Kitty-Cam’s (I’m patenting that, back off), 36-7. These games are always far too close - take the points, fellas!

Just So Ya’ Know:

  • Eagles are 0-3 ATS this season
  • Underdog is 13-3 in last 16 meetings
  • Road team is 8-2 in last 10 meetings
  • Giants WR Hakeem Nicks (237 yards, 1 TD) and RB Ahmad Bradshaw (94 yards, 1 TD) practiced Thursday


Thursday Night Football Picks!

I wrote this last week:

I'm talking smack now because I have a feeling that Grecco will kick both our butts going forward. Damn you math!

Pick results from last week on games in which the Stampede Blue brain trust disagreed:

Matt: 3-1

Nick: 3-1

Brad: 2-2

The Chargers and the Broncos just HAD to lay stinkers at home, didn't they? Records now stand at Matt 27-21, Nick 23-25, and Brad 26-22.

However, because I'm in charge around here, I think each of us should get a loss removed from our records because of that Green Bay-Seattle abomination Monday night. The Packers won that game, no matter what the final score says. However, because the NFL refused to do the obvious and overturn the horrendous call on the now-infamous 'Touchception' play, we'll just pretend the game didn't happen and remove the lose from the records.

Matt: 27-20

Nick: 23-24

Brad: 26-21

Brad's Thursday Night Pick:

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

If this game were in Cleveland, I'd pick the Browns. Baltimore is coming off a close, physical, hard-fought, thriller Sunday night against the Patriots. Many players likely still have not recovered physically. The Browns are itching for their first win, and an 0-3 start likely has head coach Pat Shurmur wondering if he'll be employed with the team next year. This is a big game for Cleveland, but in the end I just don't see them going into Baltimore and beating the Ravens. Joe Flacco is finding his groove with wideout Torrey Smith and tight end Dennis Pita. Ravens are just too much.

Pick: Ravens

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