Predictification: NFL Regular Season Week Four Picks

Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

Predicting the NFL action before it happens isn't easy... Unless you are a Predictificationist. Check out the weekly picks from the only Stampede Blue writer under .500 for the season!

THIS SEASON: 23-25*

LAST WEEK: 7-9*

COLTS PREDICTIONS: 2-1

For the people that read this column weekly you will notice something new I've attached to my overall and weekly record... the asterisk. Why the asterisk you may ask? Let me explain....

Asterisk (st-rsk) - n. A star-shaped figure (*) used chiefly to indicate an omission, a reference to a footnote, or an unattested word, sound, or affix.

That's right... After Monday's Packers and Seahawks game I decided that an asterisk would make me feel better about my sub-par performance. It could be worse... I could be Brad Wells who finished (cough, cough) 5-11 last week.

Ahh... that did make me feel better!

NFL action has seemed more difficult than ever to predict this year. For instance, I went 7-9* last week and still moved up in our Yahoo! league (and yes, I'm only counting people that remembered to make their picks, sheesh).

Raise your hand if you saw all of this coming:

  1. Lions over the Titans
  2. Vikings over the 49ers
  3. Chiefs over the Saints
  4. Cardinals over the Eagles
  5. Raiders over the Steelers
  6. Seahawks over the Packers*
LIARS! Put your hands down!

Here's why I'm a genius:

  1. Giants @ Panthers - People were a little too quick to write off the Giants. 'The Other Manning' is the best QB in the NFL right now (don't even try to argue Brees, Brady or Rodgers at this point who are a combined 2-7) and the Panthers aren't ready for primetime.
  2. Bills @ Browns - The Browns are terrible and I will almost always pick against them - why would anyone have picked the Browns in this game, Brad?
  3. Falcons @ Chargers - The Chargers were actually favored in this game. People got too high on San Diego early. Rule of thumb: Never buy in to a quarterback that has a history of turning the ball over and underachieves. (Remember this when I tell you why I was dumb to pick the Eagles)
  4. Texans @ Broncos - I'm not on the love affair with Peyton Manning that everyone else seems to have. The Broncos, and Manning, are a work in progress and they need time to figure it out. I wish him the best but I got to keep one foot in reality.
  5. Patriots @ Ravens - I always say when things look even on paper, take the home team by a field goal.... even one that we aren't 100% sure actually went through the uprights.
Here's why I'm dumb:

  1. Eagles @ Cardinals - As I said earlier, never bet on a team with a quarterback that turns the ball over and underachieves. I need to start listening to my own advice.
  2. Jets @ Dolphins - Remember in Week 1 when I said the Dolphins are a train wreck and may be the worst team in the league? Stupidly, I went against my better judgement and thought they'd beat the Jets at home. Stupid.
  3. Chiefs @ Saints - I tweeted a few weeks ago that I can no longer trust the Saints... and then I trusted them to beat the Chiefs at home. Why don't I listen to myself?
  4. Bengals @ Redskins - I thought the Redskins would be fired up in their home opener. I also thought the Bengals were a little overrated from last season. Turns out I was wrong on both.
Week 4 brings several more close games, the real officials return and the Colts are on a bye. I've got to get over .500 this week or I will be embarrassed. Heck, we should come with something! If I'm not over .500 this week I should _______ (you fill in the blank in the comments below)

Keep it nice and appropriate, guys. My wife reads this stuff.

On to the picks...

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

This is really the first primetime snoozer this season. It feels like stealing taking the Ravens in such a one-sided game. Joe Flacco is looking like he is on his way to becoming one of the elite quarterbacks and Brandon Weeden is on his way to.... eh... unemployment.

Ravens win 27-10


Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

I liked the Falcons before it was sexy. I didn't like Cam Newton or the Panthers when it was sexy. That makes this pick very easy for me. Falcons move on to 4-0.

Falcons win 34-21

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

The Patriots are mad after last week's game and should come out swinging. This is one of the easiest picks of the week for me, yet Vegas only favors the Patriots by 5. Am I missing something? Isn't C.J. Spiller beat up? Doesn't Tom Brady still play for New England? Hmmmm....

Patriots win 27-17

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

I'll be honest here... I HAVE NO IDEA. The Vikings went out and shocked the world last week and Detroit can't seem to get out of their own way. Is Matthew Stafford going to play? Based on how the NFL has gone so far it makes me want to pick the Vikings... at this point, though... I'm going with the home team by a field goal rule. Don't let me down, Lions.

Lions win 27-24

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

This one seemed pretty obvious until last week when San Diego scored just three points and the Chiefs found some offense and beat the Saints. I still don't want to overthink it.... The Chiefs had a few BIG plays last week against a bad defense and BARELY won. The Chargers got beat by one of the best teams in the NFL. I'll take the Chargers in Arrowhead.

Chargers win 20-17

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

The Rams are a scrappy team that hasn't played all that bad. I expect the Seahawks to stumble a little after the 'Fail Mary' in the Packers game - the Football Gods have a way of doing that. Take the Rams.

Rams win 24-16

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets

I can't pick against San Francisco after one bad game - they looked too good in the first two. The Jets are still a disaster, I don't care what their record is. They are playing a RB at corner this week for crying out loud!

49ERS WIN 27-14

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Texans should get to 4-0 here.... I bet they love playing in our division. The Titans showed some life against the Lions last week, but this isn't last week... and these aren't the Lions.

Texans win 31-20

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Denver Manning's better win this one or the Bronco's bandwagon will get A LOT lighter. Manning is the best at utilizing homefield advantage... he will no huddle the Raiders to death.

Broncos win 24-13

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals

I just don't think the Cardinals are for real... and the way the NFL has gone this season, I think this may be the upset of the week. I don't have any good reasons for saying it - but I think the Dolphins knock off the Cardinals.

Dolphins win 24-17

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bengals looked inventive, athletic and poised last week... I was shocked. The Jaguars got a couple of big plays and were lucky to get out of Indianapolis with a win. Lightning doesn't strike twice - at least not for the Jaguars.

Bengals win 24-13

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers

It just doesn't get any easier for the Saints. I think this game should be called the 'Drama Bowl'. You have the Saints and all of their 'Bounty Gate' drama (I just don't like Drew Brees anymore, by the way) and mix that with all the drama from the 'Fail Mary' and you have the 'DRAMA BOWL'. Unless we live in an alternate universe, the Packers win the 'Drama Bowl'.

Packers win 34-27

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I think the Redskins have a few more playmakers on offense than the Buccaneers. However, if this game is close - and it could be - I really like the Buccs to find a way to win. Thing is, I don't think it's close.

Redskins win 27-14


Both teams NEED this game. I have a lot more confidence in Eli (see above) than I have in Mike Vick. The Eagles have had more turnovers than IHOP (zinger!).... I'll be here all week.

Giants win 27-24

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys

In a normal fight, I think bears will always beat the cowboys... unless the cowboys have big guns. In the football world, the Cowboys go through too many ups and downs to feel confident picking them... but then, so do the Bears. Decisions, decisions... Bears eat the Cowboys....It's science.

Bears win 27-24

***

Agree? Disagree? As always, comments are welcome! I will track my picks during the season and brag when I'm right (and pretend I was right if I'm wrong). Pick against me if you dare - Remember, I'm a Predictificationist.

Follow me on Twitter at @ColtsInsiders

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