2012 NFL Week Seventeen: Inside The Colts Numbers

USA TODAY Sports

The Colts played a great game Sunday in defeating the Texans 28-16. Just how good was it? Find out when we go Inside the Numbers.

Where's this Colts team been all season?

Now, I thought the Colts would beat the Texans Sunday, but I never thought it would resemble the way it actually went down Sunday afternoon at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts dominated from start-to-finish, bookended by the two best drives of the entire 2012 season, beating the Texans 28-16, sending them to the 3rd Seed in the AFC Playoffs, and giving a belated Christmas gift to an old friend in Denver.

I talked about those two drives, the opening and finishing drives of the game, back on Sunday, and I'm still smiling about them. I think you have to include the OT drive against the Titans, as well as the TD-winning drives against the Lions and Packers in a discussion of best drives of the season, but the opening drive Sunday set the tone for the entire game, and anytime you finish off a game with 9:46 left is total domination. The longest play was a 24 yard Pass Interference penalty, but it was mostly Vick Ballard, with a timely throw on 3rd down to seal the game from Andrew Luck to Reggie Wayne. I love that drive.

The improvement from the dreadful 2-14 to 11-5 this season is the largest turn-around for a team led by a rookie QB in NFL history, according to Elias. The previous record was a seven game improvement by the 2004 Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger) and the 2008 Falcons (Matt Ryan). I know this is nominally a QB record, but it's a full team record with Luck as the point man. I'm sure he'd tell you the same thing.

I'm going to jump into the stats, as they are quite pleasant to see.

Non-Adjusted Stats from Week 17:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 78.6% 8 71.4% 18 N N 5-2
ANPY/A 7.724 13 4.000 6 Y N 12-0
Turnovers 0 1 2 5 Y N 8-0
Yds/Drive 29.44 16 39.11 25 N N 6-1
ToP/Drive 3:27.7 6 3:12.3 26 N N 7-2
Yds/Play 4.274 27 5.867 22 N Y 8-2
Orange Zone Eff 100.0% 1 38.1% 7 Y N 7-3
First Downs/Drive 2.11 8 2.11 24 N N 3-2
3rd/4th Down 60.0% 3 45.5% 20 N N 6-2
Avg Start Pos 33.1 6 19.0 3 Y N 9-2
3 and Outs 2 5 2 21 N N 3-2
RZ Eff 100.0% 2 61.9% 10 Y N 5-3
Plays/Drive 6.889 4 6.667 28 N N 4-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.387 7 1.067 9 Y N 3-2
RB Success 48.4% 11 31.6% 2 Y N 3-4
Yds/Carry 2.45 29 5.10 25 N Y 5-4
Ranking - Week (32) 6 20 7
Ranking - Season (512) 64 265 105

Adjusted Stats from Week 17:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 83.4% 5 73.2% 22 N N 5-2
ANPY/A 7.877 12 3.798 5 Y N 12-0
Turnovers -0.2 2 2.4 5 Y N 8-0
Yds/Drive 33.37 10 40.65 29 N N 6-1
ToP/Drive 3:50.0 1 3:09.9 26 N N 7-2
Yds/Play 4.521 22 5.976 22 N Y 8-2
Orange Zone Eff 96.3% 2 37.0% 5 Y N 7-3
First Downs/Drive 2.38 5 2.21 28 N N 3-2
3rd/4th Down 67.8% 1 46.8% 22 N N 6-2
Avg Start Pos 32.1 30 19.6 27 Y N 9-2
3 and Outs 1.4 3 1.6 29 N N 3-2
RZ Eff 101.1% 4 55.1% 6 Y N 5-3
Plays/Drive 7.407 2 6.841 31 N N 4-3
Penalty Yds / Play 0.339 5 1.117 6 Y N 3-2
RB Success 50.6% 10 35.2% 5 Y N 3-4
Yds/Carry 2.55 29 5.22 27 N Y 5-4
Ranking - Week (32) 4 19 8
Ranking - Season (512) 45 311 106

Some thoughts:

  • We've been waiting all season for the Offense to have a day like it did Sunday, when it finally put everything together, ranking 4th best for the weekend (behind the Broncos, Giants, and Vikings).
  • The Colts needed to not turn the ball over, and they did just that, although it probably should have been. Luck had a Tuck Rule called in his favor, even though the ball went backwards after it left his hand. Again, he just needs to eat that, and he will eventually.
  • The Texans are one of the best teams in terms of Drive Stats in the entire NFL, and the Colts shredded them Sunday. They were the best team this week in Time of Possession per Drive, and were top 5 in several of the others.
  • The Colts were an awful 1/8 on 3rd Down just two weeks ago against the Texans, but converted at 60% Sunday, including three of them on that final drive.
  • They were also a perfect 2/2 in the Orange and Red Zone, continuing their great success in scoring TDs in the 2nd half of the season.
  • The Defense did a fantastic job stopping the pass, holding the Texans to just 3.8 Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt, one of the best games of the season for the Colts. I'll take another of those next week.
  • They also continued their stellar success in the Orange/Red Zone on Defense, ranking 5th and 6th respectively on the week. They may give up some yards, but it's tough to score 6 on this Defense.
  • It was a bad day for the Drive Stats, but as long as they aren't giving up touchdowns at the end, they'll stay in games.

Season Stats through Week 17 (Adjusted):

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 71.4% 13 Patriots 74.0% 31 Cardinals 93-16 0.853
ANPY/A 5.057 22 Patriots 6.626 28 Bears 124-9 0.932
Turnovers 1.83 20 49ers 1.03 30 Bears 112-22 0.836
Yds/Drive 30.64 13 Patriots 35.74 32 Broncos 80-21 0.792
ToP/Drive 2:51.0 8 Seahawks 2:53.0 27 Texans 99-24 0.805
Yds/Play 4.952 24 Redskins 6.048 31 Broncos 74-28 0.725
Orange Zone Eff 53.1% 20 Saints 57.8% 25 Seahawks 106-24 0.815
First Downs/Drive 1.93 4 Patriots 1.93 31 Cardinals 76-29 0.724
3rd/4th Down 42.9% 7 Patriots 39.9% 20 Broncos 90-28 0.763
Avg Start Pos 27.1 32 Bears 27.5 3 49ers 98-27 0.784
3 and Outs 3.19 7 Patriots 2.77 32 Cardinals 74-27 0.733
RZ Eff 67.7% 13 Saints 65.5% 18 Falcons 92-37 0.713
Plays/Drive 6.209 3 Patriots 5.913 29 Cardinals 68-38 0.642
Penalty Yds / Play 0.733 6 Falcons 1.215 1 Colts 71-42 0.628
RB Success 42.0% 23 Patriots 42.5% 10 Buccaneers 59-68 0.465
Yds/Carry 3.75 24 Vikings 4.76 30 49ers 63-60 0.512
Overall 14 Patriots 32 Cardinals

A couple thoughts:

  • No changes on the Overall ranks for either the Offense and Defense, but when you combine them the Colts jump from 27th to 23rd, which is a nice jump.
  • Our passing stat, when teams were above average on both Offense and Defense, was 124-9, a winning percentage of 93.2%. Pass the ball + Stop the Pass = Win.

Week-by-Week Comparions:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Bears 380 343 418 245 387 344
2 Vikings 247 370 341 288 350 360
3 Jaguars 195 192 143 261 383 369
4 BYE
5 Packers 223 183 156 171 124 83
6 Jets 388 468 484 387 511 510
7 Browns 130 373 237 126 454 318
8 Titans 61 439 240 84 492 328
9 Dolphins 41 415 197 54 485 270
10 Jaguars 110 83 39 175 208 157
11 Patriots 244 505 461 229 465 422
12 Bills 213 210 171 341 230 316
13 Lions 323 228 301 332 187 267
14 Titans 266 230 243 374 347 424
15 Texans 356 386 436 246 437 403
16 Chiefs 276 225 253 385 366 446
17 Texans 64 265 105 45 311 106

As you can see, Sunday was the Colts second best game of the season, only behind the Packers game. If you remember though, the first half wasn't that good against the Packers, and great in the 2nd. Sunday was dominant from start to finish, which makes me a bit more optimistic about their chances Sunday against the Ravens.

We'll have some more in-depth looks at numbers after the season is over, but for now it's time to get ready for the Playoffs!

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