2012 NFL Playoff Wild Card Predictions, Odds To Win Super Bowl

USA TODAY Sports

What are the chances the Colts win the Super Bowl, get to the Super Bowl, or just win this weekend? Find out here as the Winning Stats Predictor clues us in.

Picking games with the Winning Stats Predictor this season was an adventure, finishing the year at 158-91-1, a winning percentage of roughly 62%. The lost games were a combination of bad luck, lack of data early on, and the up and down nature of the NFL. It also keeps me motivated to try and get it even better for next season, as ultimately I want to get this to pick 70% of games correct, which means I need to flip 1 game per week. Sounds easy right? Heh.

Against the Spread this season was really rough, going 118-133-5. I know of a couple things I want to try in testing old seasons, so I'm hoping that'll help for next season. I made a bunch of changes last year, which some worked out nicely, while others I think over-compensated too much. I noticed a trend of visiting teams covering way too often, so I'll have to look at how I use the road/home splits, as I think it was a little to heavy in areas.

One of the nice things about being able to produce win probabilities is I can get chances of teams to make each round of the Playoffs. There are 66 possible games that'll play out over the next month, so I simulated them all, and got probabilities of winning each game. Then came the thinking part of figuring out chances of advancing, knowing the unique nature of the NFL Playoffs. For example, the Broncos could end up playing the Ravens, Colts, or Bengals next weekend, so I had to find the chances of them winning against each of them, based on what happens this weekend. It then gets even trickier the next round, as those formulas were pretty intense. The Super Bowl was actually really easy though to figure out.

In the tables below the percentages are the chances they'll make the given round. Obviously the #1 and #2 seeds in both leagues have a 100% chance of making the Divisional Round, which you'll see there.

AFC:

Team Divisional Conf Champ Super Bowl Win
Broncos 100.0% 72.8% 46.5% 25.8%
Patriots 100.0% 69.9% 33.7% 17.3%
Texans 38.3% 8.9% 2.1% 0.6%
Ravens 57.9% 18.5% 6.7% 2.8%
Colts 42.1% 12.9% 4.4% 1.5%
Bengals 61.7% 17.0% 6.6% 2.6%

NFC:

Team Divisional Conf Champ Super Bowl Win
Falcons 100.0% 46.8% 22.7% 10.3%
49ers 100.0% 45.9% 20.5% 9.2%
Packers 54.4% 26.1% 11.6% 5.0%
Redskins 35.9% 17.1% 8.4% 3.6%
Seahawks 64.1% 42.5% 28.3% 17.8%
Vikings 45.6% 21.5% 8.4% 3.6%

Some notes:

  • The Colts rank 11th out of 12 in terms of making the Super Bowl, as well as winning the Super Bowl, only in front of the team they beat last week, the Texans. Honestly it's higher chances for the Colts than I would have expected, so let's do it!
  • The Broncos, thanks mostly to a relatively weak AFC Playoff field, have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl, a tiny bit over 25%. On the flip side, the Falcons have just a 10% chance of lifting the Lombardi trophy.
  • The team with the second-best chance of winning it all? The Seahawks, sitting at 17.8%, which is roughly 11/2 odds. Right now, they're paying 10/1 on at least one betting site. The best value, at least in terms of the Winning Stats, is the Seahawks, even playing three times on the road (which this does take into account).

As far as Wild Card Weekend goes, here are the Predictor scores:

Home Score Away Score Probability
Texans 16 Bengals 20 61.7%
Packers 28 Vikings 26 54.4%
Ravens 25 Colts 22 57.9%
Redskins 26 Seahawks 31 64.1%

Who's your pick to win the Super Bowl? Let me know in the comments

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