2013 Regular Season: 60-32 (65.2%)
2012 Regular Season: 164-91-1* (64.3%)
Last Week: 11-4 (73.3%)
All-time Colts Predictions: 16-7 (69.6%)
Another solid week for the ol' Predictificationist, finishing 11-4. This week I missed on the Patriots/Saints (although I had the score exactly right until Tom Brady's touchdown pass with :05 left), the Panthers/Vikings, Rams/Texans (the Texans have hit rock bottom) and, of course, the Colts/Chargers.
Not exactly sure what happened on Monday Night Football - the Colts looked weak on defense (they got run over) and the offense still seems to be struggling to find an identity. I tweeted after the game that this team is still a mystery after Week 6 - wins against the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers had them looking like a Super Bowl contender and loses to the Miami Dolphins and San Diego Chargers seem to scream 8-8. Uneven performances are usually a sign of poor coaching (unprepared) or youth - maybe both. I'm not on the "Coach Pagano stinks" bandwagon (or it's friend, the "Pep Hamilton stinks" bandwagon) yet, but I am starting to wonder if they are using their personnel correctly. Time will tell.
Some decent games this week, headlined of course by Peyton Manning's return to Indianapolis. There was a lot of conversation about owner Jim Irsay's comments this week regarding the one Super Bowl championship of the Manning Era. The criticism (if that's what it was) is warranted - the Colts should have more than one Super Bowl win from the Manning era. Was Irsay slamming Manning? I don't think so, I heard it as more of an indictment of the Bill Polian regime... but what do I know?
Don't worry - all the chatter will be over by game time and the city will give Manning the recognition he deserves.
And then, hopefully, beat the Broncos.
Here's a recap of my best picks from last week:
Bengals at Bills - You can't do much better than nailing a score right on the nose and I did that last week. I told you that you could feel safe with the Bills beating the spread and the Bengals winning the game. Sometimes it hurts to be this good.
"The Bengals beat the Packers and the Patriots - but lost to the Browns. Meanwhile, the Bills beat the Panthers and the Ravens and lost to the Browns and the Jets. This one could be one of those weird games that shock us all on Sunday.
When games get like this you lean towards the obvious (Bengals) but bet money on the underdog (Bills).
BENGALS WIN 27-24"
Steelers at Jets - I told you to be careful picking against the Steelers after a bye week and I hope you listened. If you did, you probably gained a point in your office pools.
Redskins at Cowboys - I said that I didn't think RGIII was ready to put a game on his shoulders and win it - and I was right again. This predictification was more about not trusting the Redskins than trusting the Cowboys.
Before we get to the games, here are some other fearless predictions, news and notes for Week 7:
- Peyton Manning will cry at some point during the weekend - and it'll be caught on camera. Will it be during the pregame ceremony? The postgame press conference? I don't know, but it'll happen.
- Trent Richardson will have his first 100-yard game as a Colt. Others (AKA, less talented Predictificationists) predicted that this would happen last week. They were wrong, I won't be - Richardson has 100 yards or more against the Broncos.
- I bet Eli Manning isn't the starting quarterback for the New York Giants at the end of the season. Teams will start to follow the Colts' model regarding the transition from Manning to Luck and I think Eli may finish the season on the bench before moving on. The Giants are a trainwreck and someone will go in there and blow the whole thing up.
- Who will be the first undefeated team to fall? My gut says the Broncos. They have a much tougher schedule (Colts, Redskins, Chargers) than the Chiefs (Texans, Browns, Bills) before the teams square off in Week 11.
On to the picks!
Denver Broncos (6-0) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)
Line - Broncos by 6.5
This one will be fun. I will be at the game and I'm looking forward to showing my appreciation to Peyton Manning during pregame - and then cheering and being as loud as possible when Manning is trying to run his audibles.
This game will come down to one thing: Emotion. Whoever handles it better is going to win the game. Manning will undoubtedly be dealing with a swell of emotions and he will want to play well - which may work against him. On the other hand, the Colts don't have many holdovers from the Manning Era and shouldn't be as emotional. Indianapolis seems to win these types of games (Packers, 49ers, Seahawks) more often than they lose them - and Manning seems to lose them more than win them (but I still love Peyton).
I'm taking the Colts to win it.
COLTS WIN 34-31
Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)
Line - Seahawks by 6.5
The Cardinals have done well this season under Bruce Arians and have been close in almost every game this season. Playing the Seahawks will be tough, especially on a short week. I think that the Seahawks have their way tonight and Carson Palmer has two or more turnovers.
SEAHAWKS WIN 27-17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4)
Line - Falcons by 7
I know the Falcons lost Julio Jones (and Roddy White may not play either) but they HAVE to win this game, right? The Buccaneers have shown themselves to be one of the worst teams in the league and the Falcons are at home. I don't see any way they lose again.
FALCONS WIN 27-17
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Detroit Lions (4-2)
Line - Lions by 2.5
The Lions have looked more and more like the team that we remember from 2011. The good news for Detroit fans is that Calvin Johnson hasn't been close to full strength most of the season. The Bengals feel like frauds to me - especially Andy Dalton - and I'm not buying in.
I will take the Lions at home.
LIONS WIN 27-24
Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)
Line - Dolphins by 8.5
The Dolphins are coming off of their bye week and facing a divisional opponent for the first time this season. They aren't blowing anybody out and the Bills have managed to stay close in almost every game. I like the Dolphins to win at home but the Bills to beat the spread.
DOLPHINS WIN 24-20
New England Patriots (5-1) at New York Jets (3-3)
Line - Patriots by 4
Watching these two teams square off twice a year is a lot of fun. They genuinely don't like each other and they don't try to hide it. The Patriots will win the game - and I'm predicting a blowout. Rex Ryan has talked a little too much for his own good - and his Jets aren't as good as he thinks.
PATRIOTS WIN 34-13
Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)
Line - Eagles by 2.5
This is one of the toughest games of the week to call. The Cowboys ALWAYS seem to lose these games, but Eagles quarterback Nick Foles is due for some bad luck. I'm taking Dallas only because I don't think Philly (or Nick Foles) is ready to take the reigns on the division - yet.
COWBOYS WIN 27-24
Chicago Bears (4-2) at Washington Redskins (1-4)
Line - Redskins by 1
I'm shocked to see that the Redskins are favored in this game - and if I were a betting man, this would probably be a game I threw some cash on. The Bears know who they are and quarterback Jay Cutler is playing much smarter this season. The Redskins don't even know what their team's name will be next season and RGIII is turning into RG3-turnovers-a-game.
I'm taking the Bears.
BEARS WIN 24-17
St. Louis Rams (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-3)
Line - Panthers by 6
Both of these teams looked better than their records in Week 6. The Rams embarrassed the Texans on the road and the Panthers beat the Vikings so bad that they turned over their offense to newly signed (and recently released) Josh Freeman. I'm going to pick the Panthers - but only because they're at home.
PANTHERS WIN 24-20
San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)
Line - Chargers by 7.5
The above could read: Lizards Of Southern Edinburgh Religious School (0-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6) and I'd still take the LOSERS (see what I did there?).
No commentary is needed. Take the Chargers.
It's the lock of the week (it's too easy to pick against Jacksonville every week, isn't it?)
CHARGERS WIN 27-13
San Francisco 49ers (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)
Line - 49ers by 4
The 49ers are quietly showing the NFL that they are still the team that made it to the Super Bowl last year. The Titans have to feel good about how far they've come this season, but they aren't good enough yet.
Take the 49ers.
49ERS WIN 27-17
Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Line - Packers by 10
The Packers are dealing with a lot of injuries this season - and it got worse this week when it was announced that Randall Cobb would miss some time. What does that mean? A couple of things: 1) Jermichael Finely just became A LOT more valuable in fantasy football, and 2) Aaron Rodgers will probably only throw for 275 yards a game. Other than that, everything should be the same - including a win over the Cleveland Browns.
PACKERS WIN 31-17
Houston Texans (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)
Line - Chiefs by 6.5
After everything the Texans have gone through this season, it seems like it keeps getting worse. Houston decided to start Case Keenum at quarterback this week against the undefeated Chiefs. WHO?
Exactly. Take the Chiefs.
CHIEFS WIN 27-13
Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)
Line - Steelers by 1.5
I know that I predicted a Pittsburgh win last week - but let's not get carried away. I have no idea how they are favored this week, even if they are facing an uneven Baltimore Ravens team. The Ravens have more talent and more confidence. I'm taking Baltimore.
RAVENS WIN 23-17
Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at New York Giants (0-6)
Line - Giants by 3.5
ESPN picked a winner, didn't it guys? These teams come in with a combined record of 1-10 and storylines like: "I wonder if Josh Freeman will make any difference" and "Are the Giants going to bench Eli?".
This should make for compelling television.
I'm taking the Giants to get out of the doghouse.
GIANTS WIN 34-17
BYE WEEKS: Oakland Raiders and New Orleans Saints
Agree? Disagree? As always, comments are welcome! I will track my picks during the season and brag when I'm right (and pretend I was right when I'm wrong). Pick against me if you dare - remember, I'm a Predictificationist.
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