How the Colts will finish the season

There is a saying in the NFL it's not who you play but when you play them, implying that at various times of the season, teams are stronger or weaker depending on injuries or recent acquisitions by signing free agents or perhaps by trade.

I disagree. An organization named Cold Hard Facts several years ago came up with a formula to determine which games a team would have a better chance of losing and therefore how a team would finish based on the number of QUALITY OPPONENTS they had to face in a season. A QUALITY OPPONENT is defined as a team who currently (after week 7) has a record above .500 and who down the road would be almost certain losses for lousy teams and could even result in losses for good teams especially if that game was played on the road (for example Denver losing to Indy last Sunday). And as you might have suspected by now a team with fewer QUALITY OPPONENTS left on their schedule has a better chance of winning more its remaining 9-10 games.

There is one caveat for each team however. The starting QB has to stay healthy. And for the Colts that means Andrew Luck.

Here's how it breaks down for the Colts: Indy now sits at 5-2 and only has 2 QUALITY OPPONENTS left on its schedule, Cincinnati and Kansas City both on the road. I have the Colts losing to the Bengals and beating the Chiefs. That takes them to 3 losses. Since the Colts are a young team I have them being upset by the defensive-minded Arizona Cardinals on the road and losing one game to either to the Texans or to the Titans as the Colts have to play both of their rivals twice. That gives the Colts five losses on the season and since they lost to the Bengals who I have also projected with a 11-5 record, I have the Bengals with the #3 seed and the Colts with the #4 seed.

Finally here are the projected final standings for the AFC with the current record of the teams and the QUALITY OPPONENTS each has left:

1 Denver Broncos (6-1)-----------------------13-3 (5 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

2 New England Patriots (5-2)-----------------12-4 (1 QUALITY OPPONENT)

3 Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)-------------------11-5 (3 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

4 Indianapolis Colts (5-2)-------------------11-5 (2 QUALITY OPPONENTS)


5 Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)--------------------12-4 (5 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

6 New York Jets (4-3)-------------------------10-6 (2 QUALITY OPPONENTS)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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