2013 NFL Playoff Odds: Colts Clinch AFC South, Most Likely The 4th Seed

Andy Lyons

A new feature with the Winning Stats: Playoff Odds! Find out how likely a Super Bowl run is based on the Winning Stats. For the Colts, they have the division wrapped up, and it sure looks like they'll be the 4th seed.

Using the Winning Stats, I've simulated the rest of the season, including the Playoffs, 50,000 times to come up with the Playoff odds. It should give you a pretty good idea how likely teams are to make the Playoffs, win Playoff games, and ultimately win the Super Bowl.

Week 14 gave two more teams a Playoff berth to join the Seahawks: the Colts and the Broncos, with the Colts being the only team to have won their division so far. It's nice to see the 100% in there. However, with the loss to the Bengals, the Colts chances of being a top 3 seed in the AFC Playoffs have dwindled to about 12%. Here's your AFC South Playoff chances, where the Texans have been eliminated, while the Jaguars have the slimmest of slim hopes left:

AFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Colts 9.5 0.1% 1.6% 10.0% 88.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.7% 0.0% 100.0%
Titans 6.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7%
Jaguars 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texans 2.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

I know the Jaguars says 0.0%, but they made the Playoffs 15 times in the 50,000 seasons, so it isn't technically 0%. It's actually a better chance than the Browns, Bills, and Raiders, who are still mathematically eligible, but really they have no chance. You also see the Titans have a less than 1% of getting that final Wild Card spot, and the Colts have just a 1.7% at a First Round Bye. Will take a lot of losing by the Bengals and Patriots.

The rest of the AFC:

AFC North
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Bengals 10.9 4.3% 40.2% 47.6% 3.2% 0.1% 2.6% 95.4% 44.5% 2.7% 98.0%
Ravens 8.1 0.0% 0.4% 2.2% 2.0% 0.1% 24.8% 4.6% 0.4% 24.9% 29.5%
Steelers 6.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Browns 5.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC East
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Patriots 11.6 16.0% 39.9% 34.2% 5.9% 0.2% 3.5% 96.0% 55.9% 3.7% 99.7%
Dolphins 8.9 0.0% 0.8% 2.8% 0.4% 1.1% 60.7% 4.0% 0.8% 61.9% 65.9%
Jets 6.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 1.9%
Bills 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Broncos 13.0 74.5% 15.5% 2.9% 0.1% 7.0% 0.0% 93.0% 90.0% 7.0% 100.0%
Chiefs 11.8 5.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 91.5% 1.5% 7.0% 6.7% 93.0% 99.9%
Chargers 7.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 3.2%
Raiders 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Four teams are 98% or better to make the Playoffs (boring...), while that 6th seed is certainly interesting. Everyone has penciled the Ravens into that spot, but the schedule sets up nicely for the Dolphins to grab that spot, and have more than twice the chances of doing that than the Ravens do. Both the Patriots and Bengals are almost in a dead heat for the #2 seed, and most likely a meeting in the Divisional Round. We'll see where it'll be played.

The NFC Playoff picture:

NFC South
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Saints 11.8 7.6% 71.0% 3.0% 0.0% 11.6% 6.4% 81.5% 78.6% 18.1% 99.6%
Panthers 10.9 1.0% 16.7% 0.8% 0.0% 46.5% 25.5% 18.5% 17.6% 72.0% 90.5%
Buccaneers 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Falcons 4.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC North
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Lions 8.8 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 51.7% 0.0% 0.1% 66.9% 0.0% 0.1% 67.0%
Bears 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 11.3% 0.0% 0.2% 26.8% 0.0% 0.2% 27.0%
Packers 7.4 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4%
Vikings 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC East
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Eagles 9.7 0.1% 4.1% 51.4% 9.6% 0.5% 3.0% 65.2% 4.2% 3.5% 68.7%
Cowboys 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 22.1% 0.0% 0.9% 34.8% 0.0% 0.9% 35.8%
Giants 6.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Redskins 4.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

NFC West
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Seahawks 13.1 90.5% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 5.4% 0.2% 94.4% 94.3% 5.6% 100.0%
49ers 10.8 0.9% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 30.7% 52.8% 5.6% 5.4% 83.6% 89.2%
Cardinals 9.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Rams 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The Seahawks are in, and the Saints are essentially in, and the Panthers and 49ers look really good to get to the Playoffs as well, leaving the only interesting spots the divisional races in the North and East. The Lions and Eagles have the inside track at this point, but I don't think you can count out either the Bears or Cowboys. The Buccaneers, Falcons, Vikings, Giants, Redskins, and Rams have all been eliminated.

AFC Playoff Advancing Odds:

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Broncos 93.0% 7.0% 96.2% 59.2% 36.6% 19.4%
Bengals 95.4% 2.7% 78.9% 47.3% 24.1% 11.4%
Chiefs 7.0% 93.0% 62.6% 28.0% 14.0% 5.6%
Patriots 96.0% 3.7% 77.6% 33.2% 12.6% 4.3%
Dolphins 4.0% 61.9% 30.9% 13.4% 5.6% 2.0%
Colts 100.0% 0.0% 40.9% 14.7% 5.7% 1.8%
Ravens 4.6% 24.9% 10.1% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3%
Chargers 0.0% 3.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Steelers 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Titans 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jets 0.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Raiders 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Browns 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bills 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jaguars 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The Broncos are now the Super Bowl favorite at about 19.5%, with about a 37% shot at making the Super Bowl, also a league high. You can see the Colts are just 40% to advance, which is probably really close to the odds of them beating the Chiefs at home. Their Super Bowl odds are actually up from 1.6% from last week (!), but still not good, and still behind the Dolphins, who aren't close to clinching a Playoff berth yet.

NFC Playoff Advancing Odds:

NFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Seahawks 94.4% 5.6% 98.1% 58.9% 32.5% 18.9%
Saints 81.5% 18.1% 91.9% 54.7% 28.9% 16.3%
Panthers 18.5% 72.0% 61.1% 28.4% 13.5% 7.4%
49ers 5.6% 83.6% 55.2% 24.5% 11.8% 6.4%
Eagles 65.2% 3.5% 33.9% 13.3% 5.5% 2.7%
Lions 66.9% 0.1% 25.5% 8.3% 3.0% 1.3%
Cowboys 34.8% 0.9% 13.5% 4.6% 1.7% 0.7%
Cardinals 0.0% 16.0% 8.8% 3.4% 1.5% 0.7%
Bears 26.8% 0.2% 10.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.6%
Packers 6.4% 0.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Rams 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Giants 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Buccaneers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Redskins 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vikings 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Falcons 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The Saints make the biggest jump after the dominating win over the Panthers last week, having their Super Bowl odds go up 11% to the 3rd favorite behind the Broncos and Seahawks.

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