2013 NFL Playoff Odds: Rematch With Chiefs Still Most Likely For Colts, Bye Still Possible

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A new feature with the Winning Stats: Playoff Odds! Find out how likely a Super Bowl run is based on the Winning Stats. For the Colts, they will likely be the 4th seed, and that's perfectly OK with me.

Using the Winning Stats, I've simulated the rest of the season, including the Playoffs, 50,000 times to come up with the Playoff odds. It should give you a pretty good idea how likely teams are to make the Playoffs, win Playoff games, and ultimately win the Super Bowl.

I don't remember a year where 11 of the 12 Playoff seeds were not known going into the final week of the season, especially when the one that is known (Chiefs) is for the #5 seed. Last year the Colts knew two weeks ahead of time which seed they'd be, but in 2013 we have teams that can still be a #1 or a #6, and a team that could not be playing next week because they are on a Bye, or because they are out of the playoffs. Pretty amazing right?

For the Colts, they still have a chance at a First Round Bye, but the chances are pretty slim, as they'll need to win Sunday against Jacksonville (those odds aren't that slim), as well as the Ravens winning in Cincinnati (Bengals been great at home this year), and the Bills winning in New England (ok, but not great chance) to clinch the #2 seed and a first round Bye. If I had to pick, I'd want the Colts to have either the #2 or #4 seed. The Colts lost to two of the four teams vying for that #6 seed already this year, so the #3 seed would be that, then a trip to either New England or Cincinnati, a place I don't want the Colts going, as opposed to either playing at home on the 2nd weekend, and with a win either going to Denver or hosting the Championship game, or playing the Chiefs at home, then going to Denver and trying to outscore Peyton Manning, before playing somewhere else in Title game. Can't always pick what you want, but I'd rather not see the #3 seed for the Colts.

Here's the AFC Playoff Picture for the Final week of the season:

AFC
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Broncos 12.7 83.7% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Patriots 11.5 16.3% 37.0% 18.7% 28.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 53.2% 0.0% 100.0%
Bengals 10.8 0.0% 40.0% 46.1% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 40.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Colts 10.7 0.0% 6.8% 35.2% 58.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6.8% 0.0% 100.0%
Chiefs 11.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Dolphins 8.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.1% 0.0% 0.0% 49.1% 49.1%
Chargers 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 23.6% 23.6%
Ravens 8.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 18.1%
Steelers 7.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 9.1%

You can see five teams have clinched, but only the Chiefs have a 100% in their seed. The Broncos have at least a Bye, and about an 84% chance of the #1 seed (easily won by just beating the Raiders Sunday). The Bengals actually have the best chance at the #2 and #3 seed, so a lot hinges on their game Sunday. The Colts are about 7% to get a Bye, and most likely going to be the #4 seed, but again I think that's just fine.

As far as the 6th seed goes the leader going into the weekend is the Dolphins, which is just under a coin flip to take the final spot in the Playoffs. Next is the Chargers, then Ravens and finally the Steelers, which needs all three other teams to lose, as well as them beating Cleveland, to improbably make the Playoffs. Just two weeks ago they were at 0.9% to make the Playoffs, so lots of things happening to help the Steelers.

The NFC Playoff Picture:

NFC
Team Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
Seahawks 12.7 82.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% 82.7% 82.7% 17.3% 100.0%
Panthers 11.6 11.2% 64.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 12.8% 75.3% 75.3% 24.7% 100.0%
49ers 11.5 6.1% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 32.6% 17.3% 17.3% 82.7% 100.0%
Saints 10.7 0.0% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 39.7% 24.7% 24.7% 60.4% 85.1%
Eagles 9.6 0.0% 0.0% 62.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62.0%
Bears 8.5 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 31.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.2% 0.0% 0.0% 50.2%
Packers 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.8% 0.0% 0.0% 49.8% 0.0% 0.0% 49.8%
Cowboys 8.4 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 38.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38.0%
Cardinals 10.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 14.9%

Three teams have clinched a Playoff spot, only one Division has been decided, and there are two winner-take-all games on Sunday. Just a run-of-the-mill Sunday in the NFL. The 49ers clinched their spot last night after Navarro Bowman made up for screwing up an onside kick, but their seed is far from determined. They can still be the #1 seed, but they can also be the 6th seed. The Saints still have a 25% shot at a First Round Bye, but also have a 15% of being knocked out of the Playoffs entirely if they lose in Tampa and the Cardinals beat the 49ers at home. Huge implications on Sunday.

AFC Advancing Odds:

AFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Bengals 100.0% 0.0% 82.2% 50.9% 30.6% 16.1%
Broncos 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 55.0% 28.3% 12.6%
Patriots 100.0% 0.0% 78.7% 34.8% 15.1% 5.7%
Colts 100.0% 0.0% 59.5% 27.0% 12.3% 5.0%
Chiefs 0.0% 100.0% 44.5% 19.7% 8.3% 3.1%
Chargers 0.0% 23.6% 11.5% 5.5% 2.9% 1.3%
Dolphins 0.0% 49.1% 15.1% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4%
Steelers 0.0% 9.1% 3.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Ravens 0.0% 18.1% 4.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%

The Bengals are the favorites to win the Super Bowl from the AFC, while the Colts have climbed up to 5%, more than doubling their chances over the past two weeks. The Chargers have the best chance of advancing of the four teams remaining for the last Wild Card spot. Let's hope it isn't them though.

NFC Advancing Odds:

NFC
Team Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
Seahawks 82.7% 17.3% 95.7% 58.9% 35.5% 21.5%
49ers 17.3% 82.7% 74.4% 38.7% 21.6% 12.4%
Saints 24.7% 60.4% 61.8% 32.3% 15.5% 8.6%
Panthers 75.3% 24.7% 89.9% 40.7% 15.8% 7.7%
Eagles 62.0% 0.0% 29.0% 13.6% 5.7% 2.8%
Cardinals 0.0% 14.9% 9.0% 5.3% 2.5% 1.4%
Cowboys 38.0% 0.0% 12.0% 3.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Bears 50.2% 0.0% 14.2% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3%
Packers 49.8% 0.0% 13.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3%

The Seahawks are still the favorite to win the Super Bowl, and the Cardinals have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than three of the four teams playing for Division titles in the North and East. Pretty crazy to think about.

Colts Season-Long Odds:

Week Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Div Bye WC Total
1 8.7 3.6% 9.6% 16.6% 23.5% 4.2% 5.4% 53.2% 13.2% 9.6% 62.8%
2 8.9 4.2% 10.6% 15.7% 10.6% 10.0% 9.6% 41.1% 14.8% 19.7% 60.7%
3 8.1 0.8% 4.0% 19.5% 19.3% 1.8% 3.9% 43.6% 4.8% 5.7% 49.3%
4 9.8 3.4% 12.2% 31.6% 21.3% 1.1% 2.8% 68.5% 15.6% 3.9% 72.3%
5 9.8 5.9% 9.3% 11.8% 5.3% 10.7% 11.2% 32.3% 15.2% 21.8% 54.1%
6 11.6 38.6% 25.5% 15.3% 7.3% 3.8% 3.3% 86.7% 64.0% 7.1% 93.8%
7 9.7 4.3% 13.8% 21.2% 29.8% 0.7% 3.0% 69.0% 18.1% 3.7% 72.7%
8 10.4 11.1% 33.1% 25.6% 11.8% 1.0% 3.7% 81.6% 44.2% 4.7% 86.3%
9 10.3 6.5% 20.7% 35.1% 21.1% 0.4% 2.9% 83.4% 27.2% 3.3% 86.7%
10 10.3 6.2% 22.9% 26.0% 25.8% 0.8% 5.4% 80.9% 29.1% 6.1% 87.0%
11 9.2 1.1% 12.7% 22.0% 36.1% 0.2% 4.3% 71.8% 13.7% 4.5% 76.3%
12 9.8 2.5% 21.9% 28.9% 41.6% 0.0% 0.9% 94.9% 24.4% 0.9% 95.8%
13 9.2 1.5% 7.8% 23.1% 52.7% 0.0% 2.1% 85.0% 9.3% 2.1% 87.1%
14 9.9 2.8% 11.7% 23.5% 61.3% 0.0% 0.1% 99.2% 14.5% 0.1% 99.2%
15 9.5 0.1% 1.6% 10.0% 88.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.7% 0.0% 100.0%
16 10.0 1.0% 10.6% 23.2% 65.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 11.6% 0.0% 100.0%
17 10.7 0.0% 6.8% 35.2% 58.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6.8% 0.0% 100.0%

Week Div. Title Wild Card Div. Round Conf. Champ Win Conf. Win SB
1 53.2% 9.6% 40.0% 15.3% 5.3% 1.9%
2 41.1% 19.7% 38.4% 15.7% 5.9% 2.3%
3 43.6% 5.7% 26.7% 8.2% 2.6% 0.9%
4 68.5% 3.9% 42.8% 16.1% 5.3% 1.8%
5 32.3% 21.8% 34.5% 16.0% 7.2% 3.1%
6 86.7% 7.1% 84.4% 57.2% 37.9% 19.8%
7 69.0% 3.7% 46.3% 24.1% 11.7% 5.2%
8 81.6% 4.7% 69.0% 41.1% 19.8% 8.2%
9 83.4% 3.3% 59.9% 29.2% 13.1% 5.4%
10 80.9% 6.1% 58.7% 27.3% 11.6% 4.7%
11 71.8% 4.5% 39.8% 15.3% 5.5% 1.5%
12 94.9% 0.9% 54.5% 21.4% 7.8% 2.4%
13 85.0% 2.1% 41.0% 13.7% 4.7% 1.5%
14 99.2% 0.1% 50.3% 18.0% 6.6% 1.7%
15 100.0% 0.0% 40.9% 14.7% 5.7% 1.8%
16 100.0% 0.0% 50.5% 22.5% 10.0% 3.2%
17 100.0% 0.0% 59.5% 27.0% 12.3% 5.0%

Not much of a change seeding-wise for the Colts, but advancing wise things got a little better after last week.

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