FanPost

Free Agency vs. Drafting (What the numbers say . . .)





Overpaid Free Agents: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/05/overpaid-free-agents.html" >

The above link is one of my most favorite articles floating out their on the interwebs. I find it highly interesting, and because we as Colts fans are relatively new to this whole free agency thing. I thought it might be interesting to discuss.

A basic summary of the article is that you should draft RBs, WRs, TEs, CBs, QBs, and LBs because drafted players at these positions are more likely to outperform the equivalent free agent at the same position. Interestingly, safeties, defensive lineman, offensive lineman, fullbacks, and special teams players should more likely be acquired as free agents because the difference between a free agent and a draft pick will be nominal.

To me this makes a lot of sense and is actually a good sign for the Colts. We drafted positions last year that should be filled with the draft (i.e. except Corner and LBs), and we hit on those positions. We also didn't commit long-term and highly to players at positions that are replaceable through the draft.

Thus, I find it interesting that many Colts fans are advocating drafting lineman (defensive or offensive) or safety with the first picks this year when the research shows that it is better to get free agents for these positions. Now that is not to say that you can never draft DL or OL, it merely means getting those second and third tier free agent players to be stop gaps may be more valuable.

Plus the other interesting article from the same website is the following:

Offensive Line Salary and Performance: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/08/offensive-line-salary-and-performance.html

This one basically says / confirms that it is better to have depth and a higher median salary for each offensive line position (i.e. each player makes more), but it does not mean that you have to dedicate a higher percentage of the salary cap to acquiring marquee offensive linemen. Basically, you don't have to have the highest paid, name-brand offensive line, but you should have the most quality lineman.

So, does this data change your opinion at all regarding drafting a particular player in the first or second round of the draft? Does it change any your opinion pursuing particular free agents? Lastly, how many of you will simply call this post stupid?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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