I'm sure you folks have all heard of the metric 'Win Probability (WP)'. This is the chances of a team winning at any point of the game (quite self-explanatory), based on historical statistics, mainly factoring in score, time left and field position. Statistics take into account individuals too, as in 2012, Andrew Luck's Win Probability Added
was very impressive. As you all know, he was the major spark in the Indianapolis Colt's comebacks. Let's look at two games where the Colts
showed this resilience and beat the odds. (note, WP is mainly based on trends)
WEEK 5 GREEN BAY PACKERS
- The Luck and Wayne show for Pagano.
I remember, at the end of the first half of the first game, I was thinking this is going to be a loooooong day (and season). If you did to, you had every right to think that. At halftime, the WP graph
suggested the Packers had a 95% chance of winning the game. However, an Aaron Rodger's interception, a Matt Crosby missed field goal, 2 Colt touchdowns and a Colt field goal brought the halftime score from 21-3 to 21-19 at the end of the third quarter. Unbelievably, Colts now had a 48% WP with a quarter left. The Colts then, after having a sub-50% chance of winning the game every play since 10 minutes, 53 seconds into the game, finally had the odds stacked towards them after a 9 yard Donald Brown
around the 10 minute 50 second mark in the fourth. That means for 40 STRAIGHT minutes, the Green Bay Packers
were favoured to win the game! From then on, the game swayed back and forth. Andrew Luck threw a 26 yard pass to TY Hilton to move the Colts to the Packers' 11 yard line with 10 minutes left, giving the Colts a 69% WP. But the game was no where near over. Leads and WP of the teams changed. The Colts finally took the lead for the first time off a field goal, making it 22-21 (with a WP of 54%). It didn't take long for the Packers to have the WP in their favour...but two consecutive sacks on Aaron put the Colts a 64% chance of winning with 6 minutes 22 seconds left. The Colt's WP advantage wouldn't last long, as a 3 and out, and a Packer's possession which led to a James Jones
touchdown with 4 minutes 34 seconds left gave the Packers a 76% chance of winning the game.
Then, it was the drive that highlighted the Colts year.It was not looking good when Donald Brown lost 2 yards, giving the Packers a 83% WP with 2 minutes 25 seconds left. Two strikes from Luck to Reggie for 14 yards and 18 yards put the WP back the Colt's way. On first and 4 with 39 seconds, a Wayne slant TD gave the Colts a 91% WP. Rodgers, as the great player he is, actually gave the Packers a 35% WP with 9 seconds as he spiked the ball at the Colt's 33 because Packers could have forced overtime and won the game. However, a miss gave the Colts a crazy victory. And if you look at the WP graph, it was indeed very crazy.
WEEK 13 AT DETROIT LIONS
- Three minute Colt magic.
..I just can't fathom this one. With 11 minutes 40 seconds left, on the road, the Colts were down by 33-21 and had a sub-10% chance of winning the game. With the score still at 33-21, an Andrew Luck interception with 6 minutes 50 seconds left put the Colt's WP at a very unhealthy 2%. The Colts gain some sort of hope with 2 minutes 47 seconds left as their WP was 11% after a Brazill 42 yard TD.
But with that swiss cheese Colt defense, a good defensive stand was barely possible at all...how we were wrong. Colts got the ball. They were down 33-28, with 75 yards to go with 1 minute 14 seconds on the clock. There was a 86% Detroit WP. But a 26 yard strike to Wayne gave the Colts a bit more hope. A 16 yard scramble to the Lion's 24 yard line with under 40 seconds left gave the Colts a WP % of 41..... Interesting. After picking up a first down on a Dwayne Allen
reception with around 20 seconds left in the game, for the first time in 45 minutes (since 2 minutes 35 seconds left in the first quarter), the Colt's WP was in their favour. Talk about timing. Colts, however, had a 1% WP when they faced 3rd down and 4th down at Detroit's 14....You know what happened next. Try and understand this
. Detroit domination (based on historical statistics) for the majority of the game...a Detroit loss .
OTHER NICE COLT WP COMEBACKS:
The Miami game
, as Colts had only a 21% chance of winning after a blocked McAfee FG with 2 minutes 25 left in the first half.
had a 67% WP
with 11 minutes 23 left.
Houston at Indy
had a 64% WP with just over 20 minutes left.
Looking at these comeback wins, its understandable that some people look at this to bag the 2012 Colts out. Their season was very unorthodox and an 11-5 team usually dominants games more often than not. Using these graphs as evidence though, the Colts (led my Luck) were clutch and pulled wins out when (historical stats suggest they) have a less than 5% chance of happening. It occurred more than once, which speaks a lot about their resilience.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.