FanPost

"The Colts have a better rushing attack than Seattle." - Math.

Note: Maybe you don't put any stock in advanced statistics. I don't blame you, but I still find them interesting. So keep an open mind and try not to take this too seriously.

The football nerds of websites like Advanced Football Statistics and Football Perspective have worked together to create an advanced statistic which they call "Adjusted YPC." Read the full article here.

Not unlike "Adjusted Girth," Adjusted YPC is a combination of different statistics that accurately measures potency-- of a running game in this case. Why is this necessary? Well, as you know, not all rushes are created equal. A one yard run on fourth and one is much, much more valuable than a twenty yard run on third and thirty. Touchdown runs are also more valuable than runs that occur on other parts of the field, even longer runs. And of course, even an ineffective running game can produce as much as an effective running game if the ineffective team runs the ball more often. As a result, teams that like to run the ball in short yardage situations, such as the Carolina Panthers, tend to have a low YPC that belies their true rushing prowess.

This leaves us with the following formula:

Adjusted Yards per Carry = (Rushing Yards + 20 x Rushing TDs + 9 x Rushing First Downs) / Rushes

Naturally, a ranking of all 32 NFL teams according to this stat would look different than a ranking that is based on another stat, such as total rushing yards or YPC.

Here is the ranking according to AdjYPC: These last three columns show rankings based different stats.

Tm Rsh Yds TD FD YPC AdjYPC Yds YPC AdjYPC
PHI 500 2566 19 133 5.13 8.29 1 1 1
MIN 423 2081 23 106 4.92 8.26 8 2 2
GNB 459 2136 17 119 4.65 7.73 7 4 3
KAN 442 2056 17 110 4.65 7.66 10 5 4
WAS 453 2164 14 112 4.78 7.62 5 3 5
CHI 404 1828 13 102 4.52 7.44 16 7 6
DAL 336 1504 12 80 4.48 7.33 24 8 7
NWE 470 2065 19 110 4.39 7.31 9 9 8
OAK 437 2000 16 90 4.58 7.16 12 6 9
SFO 505 2201 18 115 4.36 7.12 3 11 10
CAR 483 2026 14 122 4.19 7.05 11 16 11
IND 409 1743 15 88 4.26 6.93 20.5 13 12
SEA 509 2188 14 116 4.3 6.9 4 12 13
DEN 461 1873 16 107 4.06 6.85 15 20 14
DET 445 1792 15 106 4.03 6.84 17 22 15
TEN 462 1894 16 103 4.1 6.8 14 19 16
NYJ 493 2158 12 105 4.38 6.78 6 10 17
BUF 546 2307 15 113 4.23 6.64 2 14 18
HOU 414 1743 7 90 4.21 6.5 20.5 15 19
ATL 321 1247 11 64 3.88 6.36 32 24 20
SDG 486 1965 9 104 4.04 6.34 13 21 21
STL 426 1752 10 82 4.11 6.31 19 18 22
NOR 391 1473 10 87 3.77 6.28 25 26 23
CLE 348 1383 4 77 3.97 6.2 27.5 23 24
MIA 349 1440 8 61 4.13 6.16 26 17 25
CIN 481 1755 14 101 3.65 6.12 18 28 26
ARI 422 1540 12 84 3.65 6.01 23 27 27
NYG 381 1332 11 77 3.5 5.89 29 30 28
PIT 394 1383 9 81 3.51 5.82 27.5 29 29
TAM 420 1612 6 75 3.84 5.73 22 25 30
JAX 378 1260 7 71 3.33 5.39 31 31 31
BAL 423 1328 7 68 3.14 4.92 30 32 32

Sometimes the different rankings are fairly consistent. For example they all seem to agree that Philadelphia is the best running team in the league while Baltimore is the worst or close to it. The Colts, however, make a significant jump. Although they were twentieth in total yards and thirteenth in YPC, they came in twelfth in Adjusted YPC, which puts them just above Seattle. Go ahead and rage out about that.

Some other things I found interesting:

The entire NFC North is ranked in the top half of this list, and Green Bay, Chicago, and Minnesota were all in the top six. Considering that three of those teams also have high powered passing games, the NFC North could be the best offensive division in football next year. But they'll have to compete with the NFC East, which also has three teams in the top ten.

The Colts are higher on this list than LaVon Brazill on vacation in Mexico any other team in the AFC South. That's great, but it seems likely to change next year with the return of Arian Foster and the retooled Jacksonville and Tennessee rushing attacks.

Last season, the only team with a top 16 Adj YPC that beat the Colts was the New England Patriots. San Diego, Arizona, Saint Louis, Cincinnati, and Miami were all on the bottom half of the list. It is interesting that a team with a poor rushing defense lost almost exclusively to teams with weak running games.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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