Due to time constraints, I'll give my predictions with little explanation, and fill them in during the first round of games.  I'll also give the results from last week.

Welcome to Week 13 of the Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts.  Everyone should be getting fairly close to the playoffs, so I'll try to give you some last minute advice before the games begin.  Here goes:

Sleepers:

• Jeff Garcia vs. NO
• Darren McFadden vs. KC
• Josh Reed vs. SF

Busts:

• Aaron Rodgers vs. CAR
• Matt Forte vs. MIN
• Randy Moss vs. PIT

The Colts are #1 in Fantasy points allowed to QB this season, and guess who's back under center?  Let's bury them early.

cnn.com

As is customary, I do a game preview to run down the matchups and the things my Patriots need to do to win an upcoming game.  This time will be no different.  I know you're all used to #12 and #18 battling it out, but the wonkiness that is the 2008 season will not let that happen.  Instead, backup QB Matt Cassel will march into The Lube, fresh off a couple of good wins, and attempt to silence the Colts faithful.  My expectations for this season diminished a tad after Bernard Pollard ended Brady's season, starting RB Laurence Maroney and S Rodney Harrison were IR'd, RB Sammy Morris has been injured, and the O line as been a series of rotating 300 pounders.  But that's no excuse.  You take the cards you're dealt.  On to the heavy lifting.

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Editor's Note:  Be sure to get your picks in for the Stampede Blue Prediction Contest.  You have until 1:00 ET on Sunday.

Welcome to Week 2 of your Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts.  I'll review last week before going into this week's studs and duds.

Sleepers:

• Jeff Garcia:  221 yds passing, 1 TD/1 INT = 12 pts.  Can't say I did well on this pick.
• Bryant Johnson:  3 catches, 48 yards = 4 pts.  Missed that one as well
• Heath Miller:  3 catches, 26 yards = 2 pts.  Oops again. (Maybe you shouldn't listen to me, huh?) 
  

Busts:

• Jay Cutler: 300 yds passing, 9 yds rushing, 2 TD = 24 pts.  I'm now 0-4.
• Ryan Grant: 92 yds rushing = 9 pts.  I'm going to count this as a win for me.  He had a 57 yard run in the 4th quarter, which got him to 92 yards.  I'm going to take this one.
• Marques Colston: 3 catches, 26 yards = 2 pts.  I legitimately hit this one, although he did get hurt.

So I was 1.5 / 6 last week.  Let's see if I can do a little better this week:

Sleepers:

• Aaron Rodgers vs. DET:  Any team that makes a rookie QB, starting his first game look good, should make any other QB look great.  Rodgers played well against a much tougher Viking defense last week, so expect a big week from Rodgers.
• Larry Johnson vs. OAK:  I'm going to keep picking on the Oakland Defense until they show me otherwise.  They were bad last season, and allowed 141 yds and 3 TDs on the ground last weekend to the Broncos.  Look for Johnson to be more like '05-'06 Johnson, rather than '07.
• Robert Royal vs. JAX: Bo Scaife had a big day last weekend vs. the Jaguars defense, and I see the same for the Buffalo TE.  Plus Jacksonville gave up a lot of points to TE last year, so I'm sensing a trend.

Busts:

• Derek Anderson vs. PIT:  Anderson looked bad last weekend vs. Dallas, and I don't expect him to get any better against a team that knows him well.  Pittsburgh intercepted Schaub twice last weekend, and expect a couple this weekend from Anderson, as he tries to fit a ball into a tiny window.
• Marion Barber vs. PHI:  The Eagles faced an even bigger back last weekend in Steven Jackson, and completely shut him down (14 carries, 40 yards).  Last year against the Eagles in Dallas, he was held to 32 yards rushing.  Dallas look fantastic last weekend on offense, but they will face an actual defense this week, who knows them very well.
• Randy Moss vs. NYJ:  Matt Cassel hasn't started a game since High School.  In 3 quarters last weekend with Cassel at QB, Moss only had 64 yards receiving, one of which was a 51 yard bomb.  While the Jets didn't play any gamebreaking WRs last weekend (except maybe the entire Ginn family), they only gave up 62 yards to WRs last weekend.

After reading the story on Manning last night, I clicked on the video that was attached to the link.  NFL Network has a whole bunch of lists that it runs through, and the video was for the Best Single-Season Performance.  Now, I cannot prove that this was made after the 2007 season, but the video is dated June 4, 2008, so presumably Brady's 2007 was included in this list, and not judged as well as Peyton Manning in 2004.  And, they are, of course, correct.

Here is the link to the video (Improvement for SBNation:  Emded videos from NFL.com, not just YouTube.  They are so much better quality).

Now, this contradicts what shake n bake just told us the Stats Gods at Football Outsiders figured out.  I'm gonna go Terry on them, and say it isn't all about the stats!  Well, just different ones

• Manning destroyed the single season for passer rating at 121.1, besting Steve Young at 112.8.  Brady was a pedestrian 117.2, also besting Young, but not at Manning's level.
• Manning did not play in week 17.  He could have padded his TD stats against the Broncos, seeing as he threw 4 of them against them in the playoff game.
• Last year over on Pats Pulpit, a series was written on comparing Brady and Manning.  One of the things that was a "plus" for Brady was his ability to spread the ball around, and he claimed Manning did no such thing.  In Brady's magical 2007, he found Randy Moss 23 times, and the next highest was 8 for Wes Welker.  Doesn't sound like spreading it around.  The 2004 Colts set another record that year:  the first time in NFL history a team had 3 players with 10+ TDs, as "the record breaker" gave Stokley 10 on the season.  I never understood why this was such a distinctive stat, but since he used it, I'll make use of it as well, in favor of Manning.
• The 2004 Colts played the 11th toughest schedule, according the Sagarin.  The 2007 Patriots?  19th toughest.

By the way, #1 is on the way in the next few nights.  I'm attempting to pull together videos, as they tell the story much better than I ever could...

Kelvin Hayden, drafted in the 2nd round of the 2005 draft, seen winning the Super Bowl.

Much has been written recently about the abortion that was the 2005 NFL Draft. The Vikings releasing DE Erasmus James highlighted yet another first round disappointment from the 2005 draft. James was the 17th overall player selected that year. As AOL Fanhouse's Sportz Assassin points out, the 2005 draft for the Vikings was a "horror show."

Remember that Minnesota traded Randy Moss to the Oakland Raiders for the #7 pick in the draft and linebacker Napoleon Harris. Harris played two years in Minnesota before moving on to Kansas City. That #7 pick turned into WR Troy Williamson, who sucked was less than stellar. Williamson was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars before last month's draft.

Third round pick Dustin Fox never played a down for the Vikings. Fourth round pick Ciatrick Fason became a goal line back before being release prior to last season. Sixth round pick DT C.J. Mosley played decent in his rookie season ... and was sent to the Jets for QB Brooks Bollinger. Seventh round pick Adrian Ward didn't make the roster.

Wow.

Now, to not totally dump on the Vikings, they have done an excellent job recently with the 2006 and 2007 drafts. Also, the Vikes were not the only team to bomb the 2005 Draft. Most teams did. The 2005 Draft is widely considered one of the worst drafts in recent memory. Take one look at the first round and it induces projectile vomiting if you are a fan of the 49ers, Bengals, Bucs, Bears, Titans, and Vikings. Of the top 10 picks that season, only one (Braylon Edwards) can be seen as a potential gamer.

In fact, if you glance through the entire first round, it is littered with busts, disappointments, and players (like Erasmus James and Cadillac Williams) whose young careers are threatened because of injury. Of the 32 players taken in the first round, I count only 5 who I'd consider worthy of their first round selection. Braylon Edwards (pick #3) is one. Here are the rest:

Dallas DE DeMarcus Ware (pick #11)

Chargers DT Luis Castillo (pick #28)

Pittsburgh TE Heath Miller (pick # 30)

Indianapolis CB Marlin Jackson (pick #29)

I don't include Chargers LBer Shawne Merriman (pick #12) worthy of first round selection. Merriman is a cheater who unapologetically got caught using steroids. This taints everything in his career whether he or Chargers fans like it or not.

A player who is (and should be) listed there is Colts CB Marlin Jackson. Jackson won the nickel corner spot his rookie year. By his second year he had a Super Bowl ring, won in part by his amazing INT at the end of the AFC Championship Game. By year three, he was the starter, playing all 17 games and helping the Colts to one of the best pass defenses in football.

Marlin's partner on the other side of the defense is CB Kelvin Hayden, who (like Marlin) was drafted in 2005. Hayden iced Super Bowl 41 his second year with an INT for a TD, and last year started all 17 games at RCB for Indy. The Colts also drafted back-up safety Matt Giordano in round 4 of the 2005 draft. Giordano is one of the fastest safeties in  football, and he could start on many NFL clubs, including the defending champion NY Giants, who are starved for depth at safety. Indy also drafted starting SAM linebacker Tyjuan Hagler in round 4.

So, while most teams, like the Vikings, Bengals, and Chiefs, had disastrous drafts in 2005, the Colts built much of their starting defensive unit with that 2005 college crop. Three starters and one key reserve player all hail from that draft. That's pretty damn good if the draft crop is good, but when you look at the unmitigated disaster that was the 2005 NFL Draft, getting four high quality players is amazing!

via i.usatoday.net

I saw this over at Pats Pulpit regarding the two teams "better" than the Patriots in 2007, and nearly peed my pants:

The New York Giants earned bragging rights and will forever be known as the team that stopped the juggernaut from New England.  The second team is an unhealthy Colts.  I hate winning in that situation because there's always a question mark in my mind.

This is the first time I've seen a Pats fan acknowledge something we talked about here all throughout 2007: If Indy were healthy in 2007, they would have made New England 17-1, and not 18-1. But, like anything else, injuries are what they are. New England kept their guys healthy and Indy didn't. Them's the breaks. The Pats had the same injury problem in 2005, and got as far into the playoffs as the Colts did in 2007.

This brings me to the all important question: Did Indy do enough to get better?

NFL.com has a fan ranking up, allowing you to rank all 32 teams. NFL Network had some writers on recently, and each listed their top 5 teams right now. What was interesting is each had the same teams n the top 5 (Indianapolis, New England, NY Giants, San Diego, and Dallas). Of course, this means absolutely nothing, but it is interesting to see how teams view the Colts. Remember, last season everyone anointed the Patriots world champs before nary a game was played because the Patriots had made several player moves to get Randy Moss, Adalius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Sammy Morris. Meanwhile, the Colts kept on the same path they always do, brought back the same playmakers that dominated the 2006 playoffs, and most ranked New England ahead.

This year, the Patriots have done very little to improve their roster. They've lost most of their secondary to free agency, including (arguably) their best player on defense, Assante Samuel. Dante Stallworth is gone, and Sammy Morris' health is in doubt. The Colts, meanwhile, have gotten healthy, added pass rushing depth through the draft, and signed Dominic Rhodes.

It seems that Indy has improved itself while teams like New England haven't. Even the Chargers, who beat the Colts twice last season in close games, have done little in free agency and have significant injury concerns of their own (Philip Rivers, LT, Antonio Gates). San Diego also lost the "Colts Killer" (Michael Turner) to free agency.

The Colts sport one of the youngest teams in football. Peyton Manning, Bob Sanders, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark are in the primes of their careers. Tony Ugoh, Anthony Gonzalez, Freddie Keiaho, and Quinn Pitcock look poised to make big leaps in 2008 after strong 2007 seasons. Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis are expected back 100%. With Dom Rhodes, Joseph Addai, and rookie Mike Hart, Indy has a very potent running back group, and with the draft they beefed up the o-line.

It seems, in mid-May, that this team is ready to make another run. Then again, championships are not won in mid-May. Just ask that Patriots.