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Kurt Warner

#13 / Quarterback / Arizona Cardinals

6-2

218

Jun 22, 1971

Northern Iowa

Passing Rushing Sacks
G Rating Comp Att Pct Yds Y/G Y/A TD INT Rush Yds Y/G Avg TD Sack YdsL
2008 - Kurt Warner 16 96.9 401 598 67.1 4583 286.4 7.7 30 14 18 -2 -0.1 -0.1 0 26 182

2008 NFL MVP Update: It's over, and if anyone says Warner they get their tongue cut out

Seriously folks, it is over. Peyton Manning is the 2008 NFL MVP. His only "competition" laid an egg at home to the Tavaras Jackson-led Vikings. For those keeping score, Kurt Warner has nearly the same stats this year as he did last year. Oh, and he's fumbled the ball 10 times this year, losing 6 of them. Yep, real MVP stuff there.

Meanwhile, Peyton Manning just helped his team win their 7th game in a row. His completition percentage is now back up over 65%, and he's tossed 23 TDs and only 12 INTs with one fumble (not lost).

Again, Warner has 19 turnovers this year. Manning has 12. This is no longer a debate. Chad Pennington is more of an MVP candidate now than Kurt Warner, who STILL can't play well when his team plays a quality opponent.

Over! Done! Kaput! If one more dumb ESPN "blogger" writes that Kurt Warner is his MVP, my virtual foot is going up his virtual behind. Honestly, do these guys even watch the games? What the hell has Warner done other than win the worst division in football with just 8 wins?

Real MVP candidates this far:

Peyton Manning, Colts (Why? This team would have 6 wins without him)

Adrian Peterson, Vikings (Why? Best back in football)

Chad Pennington, Dolphins (Why? Only 6 turnovers all year; took 1-15 team from a year ago and turned them into playoff contender)

Who's gone from MVP discussion (i.e., if you still consider these guys MVPs, you're a moron):

Kurt Warner, Cardinals (Captain Fumbleator is a turnover machine)

Brett Favre, Jets (Turnovers, sloppy play, lost to 49ers)

Matt Ryan, Falcons (Impressive rookie, but Michael Turner is that team's MVP)

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Recap Week Fourteen: Colts 35-Bengals 3

Colts defense imposed their will on the Bengals offense

Photo: AP

The line for this game already is Well, it was just the Bengals. Yes, the same Bengals that took the defending champs into overtime. The same Bengals who tied the Eagles (who, by the way, beat the defending champs in NY yesterday). Yes, the Bengals are bad this year, but I don't know how good one can expect a team to be with 20-plus players of that team on IR. I'm no fan of Marvin Lewis anymore, but what I do know is the Bengals defense has played well this year. If there is anything Cincy fans can hang their hat on for 2008, it is that their defense is getting good. So, when my team hangs 28 on a good defense, I feel good. And that is exactly what my team did Sunday.

Many of you were hoping and begging that the Colts would finally blow someone out. They've won several close games this season either on last second FGs or game-saving INTs. It seemed every week they play people wire-to-wire. It didn't matter if it was the Steelers in Pittsburgh or the Texans in The Lube, the games were anyone's to win in the fourth quarter. But now, FINALLY, the Colts are getting reasonably healthy, and the results are consistent, well-played football.

The kind of football we know and expect from this team.

First and foremost, the MVP race ended yesterday. It is Peyton Manning, no doubt; no debate. Kurt Warner was garbage against quality teams for weeks, then he got the St. Louis Rams. Typical Kurt, he lit them up and helped his team win his division. Yes, it is great. In all seriousness, congrats to the Cardinals. However, when Kurt Warner goes to Pittsburgh and drops 3 TDs on that defense like Peyton Manning did a month ago, you can call him an MVP. Since he won't do that, contest over. Peyton is MVP, and anyone who votes otherwise should have their vote stripped in the future. No exceptions.

After a bad game against the Browns, "P" bounced back and tore up the Bengals. The last three games, Peyton has completed over 72% of his passes. Also, once again, Peyton's running game is in hibernation (more on that in a bit). Yet, despite this, he stands tall in the pocket and delivers strikes to his receivers, who are finally catching the ball better. Peyton and Tom Moore made it a point this week to get the ball to the TEs more since Cincy decided to play two deep cover. On Sunday, the TEs caught 10 balls for 98 yards and a TD, with the immortal Gijon Robinson catching 6 of those for 69 yards. Peyton had nothing but great praise for Gijon after the game. People here have dogged Gijon much of the year, but it is pretty clear the team (especially Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning) love his play and his contributions.

And, once again, Marvin Harrison makes fools of people who said he was "done."

Yes, it is clear Marvin has not played well this year. What the reason is, I don't know. But what I do know is, at the age of 36, he has not lost a step. Anyone who says he has simply has not watched him play. On one quick slant play, he outran the entire Cincy defense for a 67 yard gain. Show me another 36-year-old WR that can do that. He also scored a TD on a 5 yard pass from Peyton.

On defense, the best DE tandem in football continues to kill opponents. Robert Mathis (Pro Bowl lock, or there shouldn't be a Pro Bowl) had 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble. Dwight Freeney (Pro Bowl lock, or there shouldn't be a Pro Bowl) had 1.5 sacks. That puts Freeney at 9.5 sacks and Mathis at 11.5. NFL.com is not keeping track of their forced fumbles, but let's just say THEY'VE CAUSED A TON. The Colts were also getting some good rush from DTs Darrell Reid and Daniel Muir. Yes, there was a Daniel Muir sighting. This guy really needs to play more, especially at NT. Between him and Antonio Johnson, the Colts may have finally solidified their NT spot. Hopefully, we will see less of Eric Foster at NT and more of Eric Foster playing three technique. 

The Bengals were also held to just 82 yards rushing. A big reason for that was the return of Bob Sanders. Bob made 8 tackles did a lot of cleanup on running plays. Yes, Melvin Bullitt filed in admirably while Bob was out, but this team's intensity explodes when Bob plays. Bob must always play. When he does, our team dominates. When he doesn't, it's a crap shoot.

Kelvin Hayden did his best Super Bowl 41 impression, running an INT back 85 yards for a TD. This is the third straight year Kelvin has returned an INT for a TD. He had two INTs yesterday, and Dante Hughes had one as well. For those keeping track at home, the Colts have allowed 4 passing TDs all season and snatched 17 INTs.

Now, for the shaky stuff.

After two weeks of amazing play, the special teams looked off: Several missed tackles and sloppy play. Darrell Reid might need to hold some more meetings to get this cleaned up. The other concern is the running game. Yes, Joseph Addai got hurt (again). And yes, Jeff Saturday did not play. But only 57 yards on 20 carries is dreadful, I don't care who plays. 17 of those 57 came on one run, a TD by Dominic Rhodes in the first quarter. In order for this team to make some noise in the playoffs (if they get there), the Colts must run the ball effectively. Guys like OG Mike Pollak need to step up and start playing like they are supposed to. The passing game, run defense, pass defense, and special teams are all good and playing consistently. What is holding this team back now is the running game. They need to get it squared away FAST.

Overall, a dominating win for sure. Though the Colts are not the AFC South division winners, they are making a strong case for the best in the AFC. I'm sure some chippy Titans fans will not like me saying that, but I'll remind them that when our guys played theirs in Nashville (the Colts last loss, by the way) they did not have Joseph Addai or Bob Sanders playing in that game. They also did not have DT Antonio Johnson (a former Titan) or LT Tony Ugoh. And if the Titans do the stupid thing and play their starters in Week Seventeen, the Colts will remind them why they won five straight AFC South titles.That said, the Titans deserved the AFC South this year, and we applaud them, in particular Kerry Collins. Again, no surprise that the two best teams (arguably) in the AFC are in the AFC South.

With win number nine, the Colts have now won nine or more games for seven straight years. If they make the playoffs, they will have qualified for the post-season nine of eleven seasons dating back to 1998. Since 1999, the Colts are the winningest franchise in the NFL. Truly, we are witnessing one of the greatest runs in NFL history. Yes, there are morons and trolls who wil say All that winning and only one Super Bowl. Most of the schmucks who say this garbage either root for teams that have never won a Super Bowl, or they are Patriots fans (whose team won three Super Bowls but did so under a cloud of cheating). Sorry, but when your team cheats, it clouds their accomplishments. Don't get me wrong. the Pats are great, but since the Patriots are the only team in the modern cap era to win multiple Super Bowls (beating the Colts in playoffs during two of those Super Bowls), it tends to highlight the cheating end more so than the winning end of things.

The Colts, meanwhile, have won all these games while not cheating. Thus, their run is truly one for the ages.

The winning has spoiled us. At 3-4, many here were calling for Dungy to retire, and some said this franchise's run was over. Six wins in a row later, those people have crawled back under the rock from whence they came. The Colts haven't accomplished anything yet, but if you counted them out after the Green Bay or the Tennessee loses, you simply do not know the Colts, and you know even less about football.

Never, ever count out a Tony Dungy coached team. Ever. Go Colts!

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2008 NFL MVP Race: King off the Warner bandwagon

Last week, we took some shots at our favorite punching bang from SI (Peter King) for his laughable notes on the 2008 MVP race. This week, it seems Peter King has had a bit of a revelation. Maybe he read something here and it sparked a thought in that coffee-stimulated brain of his. Or, maybe someone just dropped a rock on his head just to shake out the cobwebs. Whatever happened, Peter King is finally starting to make some sense:

I think Kurt Warner is rapidly playing himself out of all those nice things -- like a third MVP, like a winning January -- he'd played himself into through the first 10 games of the year. At some point, an MVP has to win a game he shouldn't win. Warner hasn't had one of those yet this year, and though he's played very well overall in engineering the Cards' 7-5 record, he's been downright bad in big games on the road, including throwing interceptions to end the first two drives at Philadelphia Thursday night.

Welcome to the world of the living, Peter! We've been saying for weeks how the Warner for MVP bandwagon was a silly mockery of what the MVP is all about. MVPs come up big in big games against tough teams, especially on the road. Last year's MVP, Tom Brady, won a tough games on the road in Indy and NY. Warner, meanwhile, has nearly made the turnover look like an art form when he plays quality opponents on the road. Again, Warner's resurrgence is a great story, and Arizona fans have every right to root for him. But after Thursday's meltdown, Warner is now officially gone from the MVP radar. Like Washington's Clinton Portis (who was the mid-season favorite before his team started to suck), Warner just hasn't done enough to prove he is the best player in the NFL.

The same is true for Saints QB Drew Brees. Brees was another reason why the Warner for MVP talk was silly. Brees is clearly a better QB than Warner. Yet, with their loss to the Bucs yesterday, Bress knocked himself out of the MVP discussion. His team, likely, will not make the playoffs and no legit MVP-candidate sits home in January. This doesn't take anything away from Brees and what he has accomplished in New Orleans. Without a defense and the continued suckiness of non-running back Reggie Bush, Brees has managed to will New Orleans to respectability seemingly by himself. Brees is a helluva player; a top 5 QB now. He doesn't need an MVP to prove that.

So, with Warner, Brees, and Portis now out of the picture, the MVP race is pretty much a one man race now. Boring, I know. But it is accurate. Hell, it is so obvious, even Peter King gets it now:

MVP Race

1. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis. OK. You give me an MVP after the debacle weekend of so many candidates. Manning ascends to the top by default, despite engineering zero touchdown drives for only the fifth time in a 10-year NFL career. This is a seasonal award, obviously, because of the Colts being 8-4 and Manning being most responsible.

As we have said for some time, Peyton Manning is the 2008 MVP. No debate. No argument. If you disagree you are wrong and you can go sit in the corner, facing the wall. When known blockheads like Bill Simmons and Peter King finally get it, you know it is so obvious it might as well have flames and sparklers shooting from it.

Now, in typical WTF! fashion, Peter King lists Falcons rookie QB Matt Ryan as the #2 MVP candidate. Look, Matt Ryan is a very good rookie QB, but if he is a legit MVP candidate, I'm no longer watching NFL football and dedicating my blogging Sundays to the PBA Tour. Why not throw Joe Flacco in there as well, Peter! His team is 8-4 and, like Ryan's Falcons, Flacco's Ravens are currently in the playoff picture as the #6 seed. Personally, I feel Jets QB Brett Favre is the #2 MVP candidate. Yes, his team lost to the Broncos at home yesterday. Yes, he played poorly. So what. People have bad games, and the Jets had just finished beating the Pats and Titans in previous weeks. Favre will likely bounce back next week.

The other real, legit MVP candidates are Titans QB Kerry Collins and Giants QB Eli Manning. My arguments for these candidates are simple: Without Collins, Vince Young continues to stink it up in Nashville and the Titans are .500 right now, not 11-1; Without Eli Manning, the Giants have David Carr throwing the football ('nuff said). The fact that niether of these men are on King's MVP radar suggests Peter's two feet are not quite firmly planted in the realm of the totally conscious, but for now we are just happy that he has seen the light regarding Peyton Manning. Baby steps for everything else. Baby steps.

So, why all this MVP talk?

Well, for one, it is cool to talk and write about MVP races. They are fun. Yes, admit it. They are. Remember, football is supposed to be fun, and if you do not see the fun in talking about MVP races, get a pulse. Do they mean anything in terms of who wins it all? No, of course not. Last year's MVP choked big time in the Super Bowl, and was outplayed by a guy who was booed in his home stadium just one month prior. In terms of the ultimate prize, the Super Bowl is way cooler than any regular season MVP award. However, this year the MVP award has an extra layer of drama added to the fun. It was starting to look as if writers were going to give Kurt Warner, a man who will never sniff the NFL Hall of Fame, his third NFL MVP. Only one other player has won three MVPs: Brett Favre. Favre will obviously be a first ballot HoFer, and if he wins his fourth MVP, he will further cement his legacy as one of the greatest ever to play.

Better than Elway. Better than Montana. Better than Starr. Better than Graham. Maybe better than Unitas.

So, knowing the stakes, giving the MVP to Warner would be kind of a slap in the face to previous award winners. How can a guy who will never get a HoF vote (nor should he) win three friggin' league MVPs? Fortunately, Warner has been re-exposed as the turnover monster he always was, and the person who will likely join Favre as the only other three-time NFL MVP is Peyton Manning. This is the way it should be. Yes, it is boring. We know Peyton is great. Why give him yet another award?

Answer: Because the great ones should always win the awards until someone better comes along. Deviation from that cheapens the award, and Peyton Manning is clearly the best player in this league right now. Once again, Peter King shows us he has a little life after all:

Let me tell you a story. My Sirius NFL Radio partner, Randy Cross, was on a Frontier Airlines flight from Denver to Atlanta eight nights ago after doing Oakland-Denver for CBS. Frontier has satellite TV at every seat and Cross and his seat neighbor were watching the waning moments of the Indy-San Diego Sunday-nighter. The Chargers kicked a field goal to tie the game at 20 with a minute and a half left. The ensuing conversation:

Seat neighbor: "Overtime.''

Cross, pointing to the time remaining: "The Chargers are toast.''

Seat neighbor: "Why?''

Cross, pointing to Peyton Manning on the screen: "Because of him.''

Eighty-seven seconds later , after another game-winning drive by the master of them, the Colts were walking off the field with a 23-20 win.

Thanks for the story, Peter. Now, do us a favor and hide those power rankings. You do not help your cause by ranking the Steelers and the Cowboys ahead of the Colts. The Colts beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and the Cowboys... well, they just suck in general. Beating up on the Lions doesn't magically make them a legit contender again. But whatever. Peter has seen the light regarding Peyton Manning for MVP.

Baby steps with everything else.

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2008 MVP Race: If people are still talking Kurt Warner, they are clueless

Look, I'm not knocking Kurt Warner. He is a major reason why the Cardinals will get to the playoffs this year. He has re-invented himself and won the respect of his teammates by continuing to work hard, stay focused, and lead by example. His success story in the NFL is one that will inspire future players for years to come: Unknown former-Arena league player who used to bag groceries goes on to win two league MVPs, a Super Bowl, and a Super Bowl MVP. Amazing. Inspiring. His second (or third) act as a player is yet another reason to cheer for Kurt.

But he is in no way, shape, or form the 2008 NFL regular season MVP.

More so than any other year, the regular season MVP award will truly be a watershed mark for sports writers. It will show us (the fans) if these idiots truly do watch and understand the game they are paid six figures a year to write about and comment on. How? By seeing whether or not these people vote for Kurt Warner or Peyton Manning for league MVP.

I've met several key sports writers who work for established media. I've seen how they work and how they approach the NFL. So, when you see me rant and rave as to how collectively stupid many of these people are, know that I speak from first-hand experience in dealing with them. Many of these guys watch maybe a few games of one player, look at their overall stats on NFL.com, and then select their MVP choice.

That's it.

So, knowing how many of these schmucks evaluate games, it seems there will be a few people who will throw votes at Kurt Warner, a player who has yet to QB his team to a win against an opponent with a winning record on the road. The Cardinals have only 3 wins against opponents that currently have winning records. One of those teams is the Dolphins. The three quality teams Warner and the Cardinals have faced on the road (Washington, NY Jets, and Carolina) handed the red birds loses. 

Warner, for his part, played very poorly in those games, tossing 6 TDs, 5 INTs, and committing 5 fumbles. On the road, against quality opponents, Kurt Warner has committed 8 turnovers in three games. On the road against everyone else (all with losing records) Warner has only 2 turnovers in three games. Last Sunday, against the NY Giants in Glendale, Warner had an INT and 2 fumbles (losing one). His QB rating was 79, and both his lost turnovers resulted in Giants points. Yet, despite Warner's putrid play in a big game in his home stadium against a quality opponent, established media morons like Peter King brush off the turnovers and sloppy play and look at only one stat when they judge who the best player in the NFL is: Yards.

MVP Watch

1. Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona. Ho-hum. A 351-yard day, and he didn't play very well. Not enough to move him out of the lead, though.

I've given up on trying to understand Peter King's buffoonery. The guy has covered the NFL for a gazillion years and seem to still get a woody for player who throws for over 300 yards no matter how many times they turn the football over and kill their team's chance to win games by taking sacks at inopportune times (things Warner has done in spades this year).

Oh Well. Ho-hum. Golly gee. I'm still going to rank Warner #1 in the MVP race even though he has yet to QB his team to a win on the road against a quality opponent, and he fumbles more so than any other starting QB active right now.

Sadly, I'm thinking King's take on the MVP race is shared by more than a few influential media people. They don't look at what the player has actually done and look solely at the numbers: 70% completion percentage, 3,506 yards, 21 TDs, 8 INTs, team going to win division. They look at those blind figures, mark a check in the box next to Warner, Kurt, and then sit back in their easy chairs and write about the kind of coffee they like to drink in airports.

Someone shoot me.

For the rest of us, the people who actually watch the football games and know something about the game, Peyton Manning is the 2008 MVP so far. When Kurt Warner goes into Pittsburgh and tosses 3 TDs and no turnovers in a victory, you can call him an MVP. When Kurt Warner converts a 4th down, mid-field play with 24 seconds left to get his kicker in range to beat the Chargers in San Diego, you can call him MVP. When Kurt Warner leads his team back down 15-0 in the fourth quarter to beat the Vikings in Minnesota, he is the MVP. When Kurt Warner blasts the Baltimore Ravens defense, he is the MVP.

Since Warner has not even come remotely close to accomplishing any of these feats, and has spent much of the year beating up on the putrid NFC West, the MVP discussion starts and ends with Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning has also had to deal with tremendous adversity to get his team back into the playoff discussion, much more than Warner:

  • Injuries to his o-line (only one player has started every game, and that one player is the worst o-lineman of the bunch)
  • Injuries to his running backs
  • No Bob Sanders for his defense
  • Injuries to himself (recovering from staph infection in knee)
  • A holy-friggin-crap schedule that had road games in Minnesota, Tennessee, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and San Diego.

And despite all the big wins, great comebacks victories, and insanely spectacular clutch play, people like King still rank Peyton #2 behind Kurt Warner. Heck, even if you put Manning's numbers in front of them (62% completion, 2,823 yards, 19 TDs, 10 INTs, 1 rushing TD, zero fumbles) I get the sense that many of these established media morons would still hand Kurt Warner his third MVP award over Peyton Manning.

Un-friggin-believable.

Again, this year's MVP race will be a watershed mark for these established media writers. I'm not writing this to bash Warner or take his 2008 accomplishments lightly. I just think these media guys are looking to give the award to Warner because it is a better story than giving it to the more deserving Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning getting the award is boring. I admit that. He is great and we know it. Giving it to Warner will make people feel good and remind everyone that they should never quit at anything because America is all about second chances... that kind of stuff. However, awarding it to Warner because it will sell more magazines and newspapers because it is a great "feel good" story belittles the award.

The MVP goes to the NFL's best player. Peyton Manning is the NFL's best player right now, and he has played better than Kurt Warner. Thus, Manning gets MVP, and anyone who disagrees simply does not know or understand football. The only other player I would consider over Manning this year is Brett Favre. When you go into Tennessee and dominate the Titans, you are now firmly in the MVP hunt. Also, the Jets had 4 wins last year. This year, they are competing for the #1 seed in the AFC.

This past Sunday should have ended all the Kurt Warner for MVP talk. He played awful, AGAIN, against a quality opponent. Only this time, he played awful in Arizona. Unfortunately, we still have people like Peter King influencing this award. Hopefully, Peter will come to his senses and see what a jackass he looks like by still batting for Warner. I mean Christ, Peter! When Bill Simmons starts making more sense than you on the MVP subject, that should be a wake up call!

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Nearly 10 years later, Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner battle it out again for NFL MVP

Interesting comment fro jay16 in this FanPost:

I tell you what. As of right now he is 4th or 5th ranked for my MVP. He has some games coming up against some totally weaker foes, if he can demolish the Browns, Lions, Bengals, and pad his numbers to outshine Warner's, and throw in his 4th quarter comebacks this year, hands down, I will throw in the towel, he’s earned it. Right now here is what I have

1.Kurt Warner
2.Eli Manning
3.Clinton Portis
4.Joey Porter
5.Peyton Manning

Good points, but I don't agree. Maybe Jay16 is a bit more unbiased than me (he probably is) but I think they will give the MVP to Peyton Manning this year if he gets the Colts in the playoffs and not Kurt Warner. Interestingly enough, just two weeks ago, we SB Nation writers had Clinton Portis practically locked up as NFL MVP at the mid-season point. Now, he is barely even in the conversation.

The people at the top of the conversation are Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner, and it was nearly ten years ago that a then-unknown Kurt Warner was battling it out with a second year phenom named Peyton Manning. In the time since, both have won Super Bowls, multiple MVPs, and several division titles with their respective teams. Yet, Peyton has clearly proven he is the better QB, and it is this reason why he will likely take home his third MVP this year.

Peyton-manning_medium

In the fourth quarter of big games, Peyton has been phenomenal

Photo: www.bcsfrenzy.com


Look, I'm not going to knock Warner. FO ranks him as the most efficient QB in the NFL right now. He is completing 70%-friggin-percent of his passes. His team is poised to win their division this Sunday (they won't because they are playing the Giants, but the fact that they can lock up their division in November says something about their success this year). Warner has been the driver of the Cardinals offense, and with WRs like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin the Cards are able to put up points quickly. This has taken pressure off their defense, which is more solid than good.The other pro in the Kurt for MVP corner is he has played consistently well since Week One, and I think there is merit to the notion that the MVP is for the best player from Week 1 to Week 17, not from Week 8 to 17.

But the plain and simple truth is Peyton Manning is a better QB than Kurt Warner, and he has had to fight through a helluva lot more adversity this season than Warner has to get his name into the MVP consideration.

Peyton started the season hurt, recovering from a staph infection in his knee and surgery to remove his knee's bursa sac. He showed up to the first game of the season thin, out of game shape, and not as mobile as he once was. But, in typical Peyton form, he fought through it. Adding to this is the sheer holy freaking crap difficulty of the Colts schedule. Starting with a healthy Chicago team, going to Minnesota, an 0-2 Jacksonville team, a totally desperate 0-3 Houston team, Green Bay at Lambeau, Tennessee in Nashville, and Baltimore with their foot-to-your-nuts defense.

Ugh.

Contrast this with Warner, who plays in the division that features the hapless Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks. Warner's division opponents have a combined record of 5-28, and Warner has feasted on these teams this year. 4 of Arizona's 6 wins are against the terrible NFC West. And while 2 of Indy's 6 wins are against the 3-7 Texans, I'll argue that the Texans are about better than the garbage that passes for "competition" in the NFC West.

P1_warner_medium

Kurt Warner is having an amazing 2008 season.

Photo: i.a.cnn.net

 

Where Peyton trails Warner is in the stats. Warner will also help his team win their division. Peyton and the Colts likely will not win the AFC South. But what Manning has done is willed his team to comeback or razor-thin wins despite the statistics. The Minnesota game is one such example. In the game, Manning had a 72 QB rating for that game, throwing 2 INTs and facing a pass rush that knocked him around all game. But Manning's heroics in the 4th quarter, including an outstanding throw to get a key first down to Reggie Wayne, got the Colts in position to win the game on Adam Vinatieri's 48 yard FG. Two weeks later, Manning had another big fourth quarter comeback at the expense of Sage Rosenfels and the Texans.

Peyton then went to Pittsburgh and threw 3 TDs in Indy's first win there in 40 years. Several weeks prior, he shredded Baltimore's outstanding defense.

The case for Manning is not the overall statistics, but how he has performed in the clutch against incredible adversity. With injuries to his offensive line and his running backs, Peyton has had to loft up 380 attempts, exposing him to more hits from defenders. Yet, despite the hits, Peyton Manning has not fumbled. Kurt Warner, a known fumbler, has coughed it up 7 times (almost once a game) and lost 5 of them. Fumbles are not included in standard NFL QB rating. Why, I don't know.

So, when you factor in these other elements (strength of opponents, performance in the clutch, and overall importance to the team) then Peyton Manning is the clear front-runner for MVP. If your focus is simple numbers, then it is Warner. I personally do not think MVP voters are going to give Warner (who has not been relevant since the Rams lost the Super Bowl to the Patriots in 2001) the MVP over Peyton, especially if Peyton closes the season strong and gets Indy into the playoffs.

I realize that Warner winning MVP would be a big boost to the Cardinals who have had very little to cheer about pretty much since they moved to Arizona. But the simple truth is that Warner might not be a Cardinal next year, and sitting on their bench is the first round draft pick of 2006 (Matt Leinart). MVP voters will factor that into their consideration. And when you compare Manning's play under pressure to Warner's, Peyton has the edge. In any case, it is fun and ironic that here we are, nearly ten years later, talking about Peyton and Kurt as MVP candidates.

UPDATE: Great comment from shonuff:

One thing I can’t imagine – If Kurt Warner wins MVP this year, it will be his third, making him only the 2nd player to win 3. Three freakin MVPs! The other, as we all know, is Brett Favre, who is a sure fire first ballot hall of famer. I’m going to go out on a limb here, and say that Kurt Warner is not really even in the discussion for the Hall of Fame at this point. It just seems so strange that a QB who [could win] 3 MVPs isn’t even in the discussion of greatest of all time, and probably not a Hall of Famer.

This is another reason why Warner will not get the MVP this year. He is not a Hall of Famer. He has had three great NFL seasons, and has lost his starting job several times with several teams due to erratic play.

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Recap Week Eleven: Colts 33-Texans 27

Joseph Addai looks healthy again.
Photo: Colts.com

It took 11 weeks, but it looks like the Colts offense is finally healthy and on the same page. Indy stated before the game that their intention was to run the ball and balance the offense. They did just that.

Now, you will have to forgive me, but unlike shake n bake, I am not one who puts a lot of faith in statistics. Coming into the game, the Colts had the #32 ranked run offense in football. I, personally, do not think the backs and o-line for this team are the worst in football. So, I knew that ranking was misleading. When healthy, this offense can run on anyone.

Anyone.

So, it was nice to finally see the Colts say they were going to do something (like run the ball) and then actually do it. The team averaged 4.5 a rush and controlled the tempo of the game in the second half, where they scored 28 points. Like so many teams this year, the Colts have been held back because of injuries to their offense. Now healthy, they dropped nearly 500 yards of offense and 33 points in such a way that the team's efficiency is scary good. Indy was 10 of 15 on third down and did not turn the football over for the third straight game.

So, please excuse me when I say that statistics are nearly meaningless. Coming into the game, the Colts had shut down some of the best rushing offenses in football. They stoned the Steelers rushing attack last week in Pittsburgh. They shut down the Ravens. Yet, against the Texans they give up 9 yards a rush and 7.9 per offensive play. They also gave up some big plays in the game, something the Colts NEVER do.

Again, stats this season are more misleading than ever. Everyone, save the Giants and Titans, is playing an up and down, "box o' chocolates" style of football. You just don't know what you are going to get.

The Texans, fearing Dwight Freeney, bootlegged Sage Rosenfels all game long. Yet, Freeney still managed to bring Rosenfels down twice. Antonio "Mookie" Johnson continues to improve at NT, and Clint Session is rounding into a solid player. Thought Melvin Bullitt sealed the win with an INT (the second time in as many games, I might add) Bullitt did not play well most of the game. He did not play his run gaps well, which often resulted in big plays for the other team. It is beyond frustrating that Bob Sanders did not play. All this surgery and rest, and he still gets scratched. 

Images_5cnews_photos_5cgameday_dump_5c_j1v9156_medium

Dwight Freeney had two big sacks again the Texans.

Photo: Colts.com

Back to the offense, Joseph Addai is now finally healthy, and anyone who questioned him can kindly let the door hit them on the way out. Addai ran all over Houston, and also caught a TD pass to go with his rushing TD. Dominic Rhodes also got into the act, gaining 48 yards on only 10 carries. Addai had 22. This is the kind of rushing balance the Colts must stick with. Addai with 25 touches, Dom with 10-15. Tony Dungy needs to commit to this kind of balance moving forward.

The one thing that must get corrected right now are the drops. Dungy should seriously consider benching players who continue to drop easy passes. If Peyton Manning puts it in your hands, CATCH IT! If you don't, fetch my Gatorade. Marvin Harrison did have a good game (8 catches, 77 yards, 1 TD), but he did drop a pass or two AGAIN.

Just like the offense, the defense needs to get some guys back for good and get some consistency. Bob Sanders in and out of the lineup is killing us. We need him in and he needs to STAY in. If he can't, IR him. Yes, I'm serious. We need people who are reliable so this team can finally start playing consistent football. Having players in and out all the time kills consistency. Stoning the Steelers running game in Pittsburgh one week and letting the Texans run all over you the next is driving me crazy. They also need to get Daniel Muir back into the rotation so guys like Mookie, Keyunta Dawson, and Eric Foster don't wear down. And, seriously, if Ryan Lilja and Roy Hall cannot play this week, IR them Mr. Polian. They have yet to play football this season and it is late November. They are taking up roster spots and not helping this team.

Despite it all, this team has won three in a row and clawed its way back into things. The theme at ESPN in the post-game shows (especially from their resident comedian, Jeremy Green) is "Can the Colts win with their shaky defense?" This is, of course, hilarious because the defense has carried the Colts much of this season while the offense has limped along. They've won three in a row playing some extremely tough competition, and when healthy this defense has dominated some good opponents.

Oh, and I'm sorry, but can we please cut out the "Kurt Warner for MVP" crap. With all the garbage Peyton Manning has dealt with this season, from bursa sacs to injured o-linemen to receivers dropping balls, to list Kurt friggin Warner over him as an MVP candidate is a joke. The Cardinals play in a division where their opponents have a combined 5-23 record. Four of Arizona's six wins have come from these teams, and Kurt Warner has kindly padded his stats against these their wretched defenses. Yes, I know the Cardinals have no control over who they play, but the strength of the opponent should factor into MVP talk. The Cards have won three in a row after starting 4-3. Those three wins in a row are against their "stellar" division opponents.

Meanwhile, against the Patriots, Steelers, and Texans the last three weeks respectively, Peyton Manning has completed 63% of his passes for 814 yards, 7 TDs, and zero turnovers.

That, my friends, is how real MVPs play.

Kurt Warner? Please. Can you imagine how he would have played this season under the conditions Peyton has? He'd have set the QB fumble record by Week 4.

There is one thing you can take from this Colts team: They are the guttiest in football. They do not hang their hands. They do not slow down. They do not quit. Ever. Peyton said it best following the game:

"We're a no-huddle team and we won because we never took our foot off the gas."

Notice how he said they are a no-huddle team? Not offense. Team. This team is peddle to the floor, all holds barred, in your face, and about a billion other cliches. This is a high character, tough-minded group, and I'm damn proud to root for them.

Remember at about Week 5 when we thought all hope was lost? This is why you have to sometimes wait things out and see how they fall into place. Yes, Tennessee won today, but they might have knocked Jacksonville out of the playoff picture in the process. If silly things like tie breakers come into play, the Colts have beaten the Ravens, Pats, and Steelers already. They are also 5-2 in the conference.

Slowly, but surely, we are seeing the team we knew was there. Now, we just need it to show up and play consistent Colts football week in and week out. Give credit to the Texans. They are not happy over at Battle Red Blog, but their team is no pushover. The Colts needed their best offensive performance of the year to defeat them... barely.

Hopefully, players like Sanders, Hayden, Muir, and Lilja can contribute this week. For now, we enjoy our team's third win in a row. Go Colts!

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Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts: Week 8

Editor's Note:  Be sure to get your picks in for the Stampede Blue Prediction Contest.  You have until 1:00 ET on SundayGet your picks in sooner rather than later.

Welcome to Week 8 of your Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts.  I'll review last week before going into this week's studs and duds. 

Sleepers:

  • Trent Edwards:  25/30, 261 yds passing, 1 TD / 0 INT, 6 yds rush = 16 pts.  He was in the top 10 for QBs last weekend, played well, and won.  I'll give myself credit for this one.
  • Chris Johnson:  168 yds rush, 1 TD, 2 catches, 4 yards = 22 pts.  This probably was too easy, as the Chiefs are awful.  I could have picked LenDale, and been correct as well.  I'm hoping this doesn't happen again this week.
  • Brandon Marshall:  6 catches, 77 yards = 7 pts.  The Broncos got blown out in Foxboro on Monday night.  I'm sure Cutler hurting his hand on the first play of the game didn't help.  No good for Marshall.

Busts:

  • Drew Brees: 231 yds passing, 0 TD/1 INT = 7 pts.  Brees is the #1 QB in fantasy, but certainly wasn't last week against Carolina.  It didn't surprise me though.  Mark another one on the board
  • Steven Jackson: 160 yds rushing, 3 TD, 16 receiving = 35 pts. Oops.  Guess I shouldn't start picking players 2 weeks in a row.  Jackson ran all over the Cowboys.  As right as I was with Brees, that's how wrong I was on Jackson.
  • Braylon Edwards: 4 catches, 58 yards, 1 2PT = 7 pts.  Scored the same as Marshall, and didn't count him, so I will count as a win with Edwards.  It didn't help that his quarterback was horrible, again.

My bonus pick of Matt Schaub also worked out well, 267 yds passing 2 TD / 1 FL, which is 20 points.  That's another win for me.

So I was 5 / 7 last week, and 28/47 for the season. There are 4 teams on bye this week, so make sure to take them out of your lineup (CHI, DEN, GB, MIN).  Here are you fantasy nuggets for Week 8:

Sleepers:

  • J.T. O'Sullivan vs. SEA:  Seattle is bad.  Really bad.  I'll go with the 49ers quarterback, who has had some decent weeks against bad defenses.  Seattle is the 3rd worst against QBs this season. 
  • Sammy Morris BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs. STL: Morris had a big week against the bad Broncos defense, and I expect another big week for the Patriots RB against the Rams (whoever that may be).  Denver was 2nd worst against RB, and the Rams are 3rd worst.  Big day for Morris (or Green-Ellis, if Morris can't go).
  • DeSean Jackson vs. ATL:  Both teams are coming off of a bye, so they will be well rested.  We all know Andy Reid likes to throw the ball, and I think the return of Brian Westbrook will help the passing game immensely.  The Falcons are also pretty bad giving up points to WR (26th), and the Eagles are 4th.  I'm seeing a break out game for the rookie.

Busts:

  • Kurt Warner vs. CAR: I'm riding the Panthers defense once again, this time against the high flying Cardinal offense.  Both units are highly ranked, but the Panthers shut down Brees last week, so I think they'll do it again, at home, to Warner.
  • Marshawn Lynch vs. MIA:  The Dolphins are 7th against RB this season, and this is the first divisional game for the Bills.  Expect a hard fought game, and not a good week for Lynch.
  • Plaxico Burress vs. PIT: Burress, while scoring a TD each of the past 2 weeks, is going against his former team for the first time.  The Steelers are playing at home, and are very good against WR (5th).  Don't expect much from the Giants #1 Receiver.

Bonus pick:  Jason Campbell vs. DET.  I'm a happy owner of the Redskin QB this week.  I think I'll be playing him over Eli this week as well.

Weekly Derek Anderson "bust" pick:  That's the Derek Anderson we all know and love.  14/37, 136 yds, 1 TD / 0 INT.  Only 11 points as well.  But Crennel will be fired before he even lets Quinn sniff the field.  But I digress.

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Comparing the Colts to the "Greatest Show on Turf"

I got to spend the weekend on the beach in Florida, visiting with some of my college buddies, and we started talking about the greatest offensive teams of our generation.  It was difficult to think of any pre-1990, as we were all too young at the time for us to have watched them consistently, with an appreciation as to how good they were.

We decided they had to be at least 3 year runs, because "flash-in-a-pan" offenses could not be considered great.  We really could only come up with two entries:  The 1999-2001 Rams, or the "Greatest Show on Turf", and the 2004 - 2006 Colts.  Other teams talked about were both from 1992-1994, which were the Cowboys and the 49ers.  Most of the arguments were for the Rams, since they have been talked about publicly so much.  I, on the other hand, still contend the 2004-2006 Colts had the best three year run on offense over the past 15 years.  I've only included stats for the Rams and Colts, as both the Cowboys and 49ers did not compare with either of these two teams.  I'll start with the passing game (all stats from profootballreference.com):

  Passing Cmp Passing Att Comp Pct Passing Yds Passing TD Passing Int Sacked Passing NY/A
2004 Colts 353 527 67.0% 4623 51 10 14 8.5
2005 Colts 347 515 67.4% 4096 31 11 20 7.7
2006 Colts 362 557 65.0% 4308 31 9 15 7.5
Totals 1062 1599 66.4% 13027 113 30 49 7.9

 

  Passing Cmp Passing Att Comp Pct Passing Yds Passing TD Passing Int Sacked Passing NY/A
1999 Rams 343 530 64.7% 4353 42 15 33 7.7
2000 Rams 380 587 64.7% 5232 37 23 44 8.3
2001 Rams 379 551 68.8% 4663 37 22 40 7.9
Totals 1102 1668 66.1% 14248 116 60 117 8.0

Here's what the stats say:

  • Completion Percentage is basically a wash, with the Colts slightly ahead.  Can't make much out of that.
  • The Rams threw for more yards, but the Net Yards per Attempt were almost identical (this takes into account sack yardage).  To put those numbers in perspective, only 13 times has a quarterback had a 7.9 NY/A for a season, let alone for 3 consecutive seasons, and it's a "Who's Who" of QBs on the list:  Warner, Manning, Marino, Young (not Vince), Rypien, Stabler, Fouts x2, Namath, Cunningham, Esiason, Montana, Dickey.  These are great numbers over the course of 3 seasons, with the Rams slightly ahead (0.08 NY/A)
  • Touchdowns are also very close, with the Rams slightly ahead.  For perspective, the 92-94 Cowboys threw for 60 TDs in those 3 years, and the 49ers threw for 95.  And that 51 Passing TDs looks very nice from 2004, as it is the team record for Passing TDs in a season.
  • Here's where the Colts stand out considerably:  They have half the interceptions that the Rams had.  The Rams had 23 in 1 season.  They were careless with the ball as they flung it around the field.  Manning is exceptional at not throwing INTs, and it shows here.  Big edge to the Colts
  • The sack numbers are amazing.  Manning was sacked less than 1 time per game, while Warner/Green were sacked over twice per game.  We all know the Colts had/have a fantastic OL, and this stat shows that.  I think this has more to do with the QBs ability to get away from pressure than anything else, as the Rams OL was also very good (see below with rushing stats).  Again, big edge to the Colts.

Next we'll look at the rushing stats:


  Rushing Att Rushing Yds Rushing TD Rushing Y/A
2004 Colts 427 1852 10 4.3
2005 Colts 465 1703 18 3.7
2006 Colts 439 1762 17 4.0
Totals 1331 5317 45 4.0
  Rushing Att Rushing Yds Rushing TD Rushing Y/A
1999 Rams 431 2059 13 4.8
2000 Rams 383 1843 26 4.8
2001 Rams 416 2027 20 4.9
Totals 1230 5929 59 4.8

There is no need for bullet points here, as it is rather obvious the Rams were superior to the Colts in terms of running the football.  It helps they had that Faulk guy who used to be a Colt, and will be a Hall of Famer in the next couple of years running the football.  The Rams had less attempts, more yards, and more TDs.  I'm not saying the Colts were bad at running the football.  It's just the Rams were just so much better at it.  Five yards per carry is spectacular.

Some other stats to munch on:

  Wins Pts/G Yds/Play 1stD TO
2004 Colts 12 32.6 6.7 379 17
2005 Colts 14 27.4 5.8 363 19
2006 Colts 12 26.7 6 376 19
Totals 38 28.9 6.2 1118 55

 

  Wins Pts/G Yds/Play 1stD TO
1999 Rams 13 32.9 6.5 335 31
2000 Rams 10 33.8 7 380 35
2001 Rams 14 31.4 6.6 357 44
Totals 37 32.7 6.7 1072 110
  • The Colts had one more win than the Rams, which isn't that different.  They also each won a Super Bowl during their span, and the Rams lost in another (thanks to #4).
  • The Rams averaged more points than the Colts had in a single year.  That's pretty good.  The Rams also had more Yards per Play, by 0.5 a yard.
  • First downs are roughly even, with the Colts having more.  That isn't exactly a good measure to go by, but interesting nonetheless.
  • Again, we see the Rams completely did not care if they turned the ball over or not, as they had twice as many Turnovers as the Colts have had.  It's amazing how many yards they put up even with all those turnovers.

I think an argument can definitely be made that the Colts offense of 04-06 was better than the Rams of 99-01.  It isn't as cut-and-dry as some people seem to think.  If this comparison expands to four or more consecutive years, the Colts blow everyone else out of the water.  If you take out 2002, which was Dungy's first year, the Colts have been in the top 5 of both points and yardage on offense since 1999.  That is 7 out of 8 years.  You'd be hard pressed to find any team in the history of the NFL that did that.

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