Editor's Note:  Be sure to get your picks in for the Stampede Blue Prediction Contest.  You have until 1:00 ET on Sunday.  There is no need to enter again this week if you've already entered your picks.  This is just a reminder.

Welcome to Week 3 of your Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts.  I'll review last week before going into this week's studs and duds.  I did much better this week than I did in Week 1.

Sleepers:

• Aaron Rodgers:  328 yds passing, 3 TD/0 INT, 25 yds rush = 33 pts.  I wish I would have taken him now.  He looks great so far.
  
• Larry Johnson:  22 yards rushing = 2 pts.  Ugh.  Bad QB scenario = no RB production
• Robert Royal:  0 catches = 0 pts.  I guess TEs are tough to predict.  That won't stop me this week. 
  

Busts:

• Derek Anderson: 166 yds passing, 6 yds rushing, 0 TD/2 INT = 2 pts.  This one was too easy.  More on Anderson later
• Marion Barber: 63 yds rushing, 51 yds rec, 2 TDs = 23 pts.  I really thought I had this one at halftime, but that seems to be Barber's MO:  Lots of scoring in the second half, when defenses are tired.
  
• Randy Moss: 2 catches, 22 yards = 2 pts.  I expect him to get back on track this week against the Dolphins.
  

So I was 3 / 6 last week, which is an improvement over Week 1.  It's still a little low, so let's aim for at least 4 this week:

Sleepers:

• J.T. O'Sullivan vs. DET: I may just start taking every starting QB against the Lions.  Plus Mike Martz going against the team that fired him.  I'm thinking he's gonna be slinging it all over the field.  Plus he didn't look bad last week against Seattle (321 passing, 1 TD).
• Julius Jones vs. STL:  The Rams look to be the worst team in the NFL, and they've given up a lot of points.  Expect "Juice" to have another big day, like last week (127 rush, 1 TD)
• Jeremy Shockey vs. DEN: While Shockey has been among the leaders at TE, so he isn't that big of a sleeper, he hasn't played well with his new team as of yet (8 catches, 76 yards).  I expect at least that many yards this week for Shockey.

Busts:

• Philip Rivers vs. NYJ:  Rivers is having a fantastic season so far, putting up big numbers in both SD losses.  The Jets, however, were very good against QBs last season, and have given up only 6.3 yds/att this season on defense.  I also expect a heavy does of LT/Sproles.
• Willie Parker vs. PHI:  I went with the Eagles Defense against a RB last week, and I'm doing it again.  Parker was a TD machine in Week 1, but failed to get there against the vaunted Browns Defense.  Especially with Ben's shoulder being iffy, the Eagles will put 8 in the box and make Roethlisberger beat them
• Larry Fitzgerald vs. WAS:  The Redskins were good against WR last season, and did really well against the Saints last weekend.  And I know they were without Colston.  But they are much better than the Dolphins, who Fitzgerald had a big week against last week.  It's a long flight to DC, and I'm thinking he won't have a good week.

I mentioned above I'd have more on Derek Anderson.  He is going to be my honorary "Bust" pick every week until he can string 2 decent games together in a row.  And his head coach is way too stubborn to pull him at any point, so I see them both flaming out together at the end of this season.  But I'm a Brady Quinn homer, so what do I know?

Hopefully, Shawne Merriman's season is NOT over.

Again, it's important to have some perspective in this whole Peyton Manning-bursa-sac-knee-swelling-maybe-kinda-don't-know drama. Based in small part by the reaction at this and other sites, Mike Lombardi posted this over at his National Football Post blog:

We here at the National Football Post are not interested in spreading stories just to get our name out there or to make a splash in the internet world.  We have no interest in that type of reporting.  Each of us has personal experience working in the NFL and we understand how unbridled rumor can become a nuisance for teams.  We have no desire to involve ourselves in the rumor business.  We are in "the fact business" and hope to tell you what is going to occur before it actually happens.  The Manning story is not a rumor, it is based on what I heard directly from someone who has intimate knowledge about the details.  In fact, I received several calls yesterday from other journalists who had the same or similar story, but were unable to get the type of confirmation I received.  So, the Colts can dismiss the story as a blog report if they want — if I were in their PR department, that’s what I would do — but notice that they never actually denied the story.  Moreover, since when were the Colts the ones with the pure intentions?  Didn’t they hide the severity of Marvin Harrison’s injury in 2007?  Let me be clear here: I don’t begrudge them for doing so.  Running an NFL team is a business, and like Apple or Ford you want to guard your secrets as closely as possible.  Why do you think Manning was rehabbing from home?  It is important to the Colts, like it is with many other teams, not to let anyone know their business.  As Vito Corleone told Sonny Corleone in the movie The Godfather, "Never tell anyone outside the family what you are thinking."  That is the creed to which most NFL teams adhere.  So, wrapping up my morning comments on this matter, when we report something here at The National Football Post, it will be based on fact, not hearsay or speculation.  That’s not how we roll here.

Again, I'll give Lombardi props for being straight up and addressing allegations that the story is made up. His up front attitude about it is one of the reasons why I haven't dismissed his story outright, unlike Deshawn Zombie at 18 to 88. He also provides a good reason as to why the Colts would lie to the media and fans about Manning's knee. Is it an excuse? No, of course not. Lying to your fans, who just paid $720 million for your new stadium, would be pretty damn cowardly. Again, not saying the Colts have done this, but if they did Lombardi provides believable reasons why they would.

It's also important to note that the Colts are not the only team dealing with injuries. Tom Brady has had a bad foot injury since the AFC Championship game last year. It lingered all throughout the off-season, and it has prevented him from playing in pre-season. He's also had limited practice. Meanwhile, the Chargers may have been dealt a season-killing blow today learning that defensive ace Shawn Merriman has a torn ligament in his knee. He might be done before 2008 even starts. San Diego's QB Philip Rivers is recovering from his own torn ligament, which he sustained against the Colts in the playoffs last year. Rivers had horrible mobility and pocket nimbleness before the injury. Will a torn ligament make him even less mobile?

Photo: NY Daily News

As you can see, for the other great teams in the AFC, they too are dealing with significant injuries.

One more thing on this: Yesterday we had some people come in here and actually cheer that Manning's knee may still be hurt. Of course, those comments were deleted because I have zero tolerance for @ssholes at Stampede Blue. It's important to stress that it is never, ever acceptable here, or anywhere else in the SB Nation football universe, to cheer when a player is hurt. I personally dislike Shawn Merriman because he's a blowhard idiot and an known cheater. That said, I am not happy he is hurt and I hope his knee issue is not as serious as reported. I hope he is able to play in 2008 at a high level and pain-free.

Same for Philip Rivers, who stinks as a QB in my opinion. I think he talks more than he plays, and the only reason he played well against Indy in the playoffs was because Dwight Freeney wasn't killing him. When Rivers played against Indy early in the 2007, he was terrible. Dwight played much of that game. That said, I hope Rivers is 100% healthy for 2008.

No matter how much I dislike someone, I never wish serious injury (or any injury) on anyone. To do so is just acting petty and pathetic. It has no place here. I know many of you share this sentiment with me. So, I'm pretty much preaching to the choir, but it helps to emphasize certain universal things from time to time.

So, I suggest Terry Glenn, Spidz34 suggests Eric Parker. [Edit: My bad. BlueVol03 suggested Eric Parker while Spidz34 suggested Jason Taylor .] Spidz34'sBlueVol03's suggestion is better, but I don't think the Chargers would trade a former player to the Colts; a team SD could probably face in the playoffs. Parker or no Parker, I still think the Chargers are an enigma this year. Philip Rivers' injury was much worse than many are commenting on. He was not mobile to begin with. Now, he's even less mobile. And Tomlinson cannot stay healthy.

Here's the links:

• Colts trainers are supposedly saying that K Adam Vinatieri is in the best shape of his life. People here might have been right about him being injured last year. He also had multiple kicks blocked, which is more the fault of Russ Purnell than Adam. Still, it seems Adam got into the weight room big time this off-season. I'll remind you that this is our team's kicker. If he's doing this, everyone else should be as well.
• Speaking of Adam, he's apparently the best kicker in NFL history. As if you already didn't know that.
• Found this on the Colts.com message board. I find I go thee mor so than the Indy Star board, which is a horror show now. The Star really screwed that board up. Not that I'm complaining. My traffic has doubled since Indy Star went to Pluck as its message board format. Anyway, interesting article from Sports Memo:

  I think this was the Colts best draft selection when you consider the immense talent they got here at #30 of the third round and #93 overall.

  Best draft ever? Interesting.
• This is from a few weeks ago, and I missed it. Blah. Blah. Blah. Colts will win AFC South, winning somewhere from 11 to 15 games in the regular season. Gee, really going out on a limb with that one, pal.
• Fox Sports' Peter Schrager would very much like a Colts v. Giants Super Bowl. Needless to say, Peter Schrager is not well liked in the Boston area.
• I have very high expectations this year for CB Dante Hughes. Apparently, so do the Colts.

via i.usatoday.net

I saw this over at Pats Pulpit regarding the two teams "better" than the Patriots in 2007, and nearly peed my pants:

The New York Giants earned bragging rights and will forever be known as the team that stopped the juggernaut from New England.  The second team is an unhealthy Colts.  I hate winning in that situation because there's always a question mark in my mind.

This is the first time I've seen a Pats fan acknowledge something we talked about here all throughout 2007: If Indy were healthy in 2007, they would have made New England 17-1, and not 18-1. But, like anything else, injuries are what they are. New England kept their guys healthy and Indy didn't. Them's the breaks. The Pats had the same injury problem in 2005, and got as far into the playoffs as the Colts did in 2007.

This brings me to the all important question: Did Indy do enough to get better?

NFL.com has a fan ranking up, allowing you to rank all 32 teams. NFL Network had some writers on recently, and each listed their top 5 teams right now. What was interesting is each had the same teams n the top 5 (Indianapolis, New England, NY Giants, San Diego, and Dallas). Of course, this means absolutely nothing, but it is interesting to see how teams view the Colts. Remember, last season everyone anointed the Patriots world champs before nary a game was played because the Patriots had made several player moves to get Randy Moss, Adalius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Sammy Morris. Meanwhile, the Colts kept on the same path they always do, brought back the same playmakers that dominated the 2006 playoffs, and most ranked New England ahead.

This year, the Patriots have done very little to improve their roster. They've lost most of their secondary to free agency, including (arguably) their best player on defense, Assante Samuel. Dante Stallworth is gone, and Sammy Morris' health is in doubt. The Colts, meanwhile, have gotten healthy, added pass rushing depth through the draft, and signed Dominic Rhodes.

It seems that Indy has improved itself while teams like New England haven't. Even the Chargers, who beat the Colts twice last season in close games, have done little in free agency and have significant injury concerns of their own (Philip Rivers, LT, Antonio Gates). San Diego also lost the "Colts Killer" (Michael Turner) to free agency.

The Colts sport one of the youngest teams in football. Peyton Manning, Bob Sanders, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark are in the primes of their careers. Tony Ugoh, Anthony Gonzalez, Freddie Keiaho, and Quinn Pitcock look poised to make big leaps in 2008 after strong 2007 seasons. Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis are expected back 100%. With Dom Rhodes, Joseph Addai, and rookie Mike Hart, Indy has a very potent running back group, and with the draft they beefed up the o-line.

It seems, in mid-May, that this team is ready to make another run. Then again, championships are not won in mid-May. Just ask that Patriots.

I will never understand Peter King. I mean really! I just don't get it. Peter will surprise me with excellent nuggets like this:

I've got to see Philip Rivers perform at a high level consistently to think this is a Super Bowl winner, particularly in a conference as tough as the top-heavy AFC.

And this:

I want to like Vince Young, and his improvement from 52 to 62 percent in accuracy from his rookie year to his second season helps a little. But this is the year he's got to start being consistent if the Titans are going to make the playoffs again and again. He threw nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions last year.

But then, he'll go a say something stupid, like rank the Patriots ahead of the Colts going into 2008.

Peter cites the Patriots doing nothing as a sign they will be fine in 2008. This is funny compared to last year, when the Colts did nothing and the Patriots went on a shopping spree, prompting people like Peter King to say had gotten better than Indy. Now, with New England bleeding players and doing little to stop it, while the Colts retain theirs and beef up weaknesses... the Patriots are still better? Huh?

Is it so much to ask for a little consistency with one's logic?

Even New England's draft did not address their offensive line (which was overpowered in the Super Bowl), their defense (which is still old, and allowed Eli Manning to burn them in the 4th quarter), or their running game (which is always hurt). Add to this the fact that New England lost virtually their entire secondary (including Pro Bowler Asante Samuel) to free agency. Meanwhile, Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau are still old and slow, and Mike Vrabel is getting there. Jerod Mayo will help, but a rookie playing in this defensive system is too much to ask for.

Needless to say, New England's defense was not very good in the playoffs last year, in particular the Super Bowl. This puts extra pressure on the offense, which is a pass happy unit that struggles running the ball. Not a good formula for success.

Meanwhile, the Colts are getting Dwight Freeney and Marvin Harrison back. They beefed up their o-line, drafted Mike Hart, and found another speed rusher in Marcus Howard. Their entire starting defense is returning, a top 5 unit that is both young and fast.

So, how is New England considered better?

Speaking of rookie DE Marcus Howard, Tony Dungy really likes his speed.

  Michael Hobson is the biggest fan of the Indianapolis Colts. i believe I saw him at Training Camp last year. Michael goes all out.

If you want to learn more about rookie free agent acquisition Samuel Giguere, click here. However, you might need to brush up on your French. This is the second year in a row the Colts have imported a free agent from Canada. Hopefully, unlike last year's import, Giguere can catch the friggin' football.

With the draft right around the corner, I'm trying to overload on information, and read as much analysis as possible.  I really haven't read too many things, other than here, so I was interested in hearing some different perspectives.  I came across this article by Alex Marvez of Fox Sports, ranking teams on how they've done over the past 5 seasons.

I'll get to his analysis in a second, but I wanted to run down what the Colts have done the past 5 seasons , so we all know what we are comparing against (I really wanted to try out this new table feature, so here goes...):

My analysis first:  The top line of this table as absolutely fantastic, and is not matched by any other team in the NFL.  And just remember, the two previous years first picks were Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney.  It is unbelievable to think how good the top of the draft has been for the Colts, and it is all thanks to the Brain Trust of Bill Polian and Tony Dungy (like we all didn't know that already).  Once you get past the first line, however, it is very hit and miss:  Either the guy became a pretty good player, or he was out of the league within 2 years (the exception being Gilbert Gardner, as he is not a good player , and is still in the league).  There are some great late round picks (Mathis, June, Scott, Hagler, Bethea), but a lot of "who the hell is that guy?".  This list also does not include Gary Brackett or Ed Johnson, both undrafted but signed during this time period, and both huge parts of the Colt's defense.

On to the analysis of Marvez.  I'm not quite the homer that BBS is, but I'm still a homer at heart.  Marvez picks the Chargers as having the best drafts over the past 5 years.  I took a quick glance at their draft history, and they have done quite well.  I was all ready to start bashing away, but I don't think I can.  Marvez's opinion on their best pick:

Best pick: Eli Manning. Trading Manning to the New York Giants in 2004 netted fellow quarterback Philip Rivers and draft choices used for Pro Bowl linebacker Shawne Merriman and kicker Nate Kaeding. Rivers reached the AFC Championship game in just his second season as a starter.

They've done this before with Michael Vick.  They traded the pick to the Falcons, and ended up with Tomlinson and Brees, which is obviously a huge upgrade over the locked-up Falcon.  I tend to think he gave the nod to the Chargers based solely on this pick, as they have just as many "who?" players as the Colts do.  They only have one "steal" pick, which was Michael Turner.  Also, their 2005 draft was pretty awesome, with Merriman, Luis Castillo, Vincent Jackson, and Darren Sproles. 

Overall, however, I just don't see how you can rank them higher than the Colts, who Marvez had at #2.  Many of the players drafted over the past 5 years were instrumental to winning the Super Bowl, especially everyone on that top line (excluding Gonzalez, obviously).  Marvez's opinion on the Colt's best pick is a no-brainer:

Best pick: Safety Bob Sanders (2004/second round) was voted the 2007 Defensive Player of the Year.

A couple other comments from the article:

Front office: Polian earned the contract extension he recently received from team owner Jim Irsay. Polian has done an exceptionally good job surrounding quarterback Peyton Manning with talent and identifying players who can shine in Tony Dungy's cover-two defensive system.

Comment: A+. Polian excels at recognizing which picks may ultimately leave in free agency. He then drafts replacements that can be groomed for several seasons beforehand.

I also learned that A.J. Smith, Chargers GM, worked under Polian at a previous job, which explains why they are equally as good at the draft as Polian has been.  Overall, Marvez does a good job ranking all the teams, and has good explanations for each of them.  I'd agree with the Patriots being #3, and the Dolphins being #32.  They let their head coach take a friend's son over the face of a franchise, which is extraordinarily stupid, and cost said head coach his job after 1 win.