via Washington Post

It's always fun to speculate which team has done the most to unseat the Colts overlords of the AFC South. The reason it's fun is because the Titans, Jaguars, and Texans often go to such lengths to strengthen their teams each and every year only to get smacked down again and again by the Indy machine. As a result of their efforts, the Colts have gotten better and the collective improvement has made the AFC South the best division in football. Yes, I know the Giants won the Super Bowl and Dallas was 13-3 in 2007. Dallas also hasn't won a playoff game in 15 years, and the other NFC East playoff team (Washington) would get smoked by anyone in the AFC South, including a Sage Rosenfels-led Texans team. So please, spare me the NFC East talk. Yes, it's a good division; a GREAT division. It isn't the South.

Even with the South being so strong in 2007, I personally think most of the AFC South teams got better this off-season, with the exception of the Titans (more on them later). Aside from the AFC South having some of the best teams in football, they also have the best team bloggers in football. I'll freely admit that I am the agitator in our blogger division. Rarely do you see Jimmy writing articles about how Bob Sanders can't stay healthy, or Tim typing stories about how Indy's special teams play sucks. However, you are sure to see me writing a post either insulting Vince Young or criticizing the stupid draft moves of Gary Kubiak. I wouldn't do this if I didn't feel that guys like Tim, Chris, and Jimmy would not immediately call me "idiot" are debunk my claims with intelligent points with just a pinch of homerism. This is why we do what we do.

This is team blogging.

In this case, I think the Texans and Jaguars have bettered themselves since last season, with the Titans noticeably getting worse in the talent department. However, despite the changes (good or bad), none of these teams have done enough to unseat the Colts, who themselves have made great moves to shore up their weaknesses.

The off-season fad is to say the Jaguars have finally done enough to unseat Indy. Even AOL has found a writer who thinks the additions of WR Jerry Porter, CB Drayton Florence, WR Troy Williamson, and draft day additions like DE Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves are enough to knock off a Colts team that has beaten the Jaguars 5 of the last 6 times. Indeed, even the football guru himself, John Clayton, thought the Jaguars had an impressive run in free agency.

Did getting Drayton Florence (#29) help push the Jags over the Colts?

Photo via www.nctimes.com

While the Jaguars are much improved, it is important to note that so are the Colts. New Era Scouting's Dave Gardner has an article up talking about how the Colts are, quietly (per usual), shaping into the best team in football talent-wise.

The Colts could have kept the same roster from last season and still made it to the playoffs. With all the skill positions in place on offense (they’ll be fine with or without Marvin Harrison), and an excellent back seven on defense, they were in place to win at least ten games. However, as they prepare for the first season in a new stadium, it should be ready to host more than just the eight regular season games.

Not long ago, I wrote about how the Jaguars do not have a single area of their team that is better than Indy's. Chris at Big Cat responded, disagreeing with my take and offering little rebuttal in terms of substance.

I'll grant Quarterback, I'll even concede the offensive line and Tight Ends.  But to say that the Colts have better Linebackers, Defensive Line, and Secondary than the Jaguars is an ignorant statement.  The Jaguars use their linebackers a little differently than the Colts do in the "Dungy 2", and really can't be compared directly.  The combination of Durrant, Ingram, Peterson, and Smith give the Jaguars three guys who can play every combination of linebacker spots, the speed to play sideline to sideline, and a nasty hard hitting attitude.  I'd take our bench linebacker over any of the Colts starters.  Remember, the biggest knock on the Jaguars pass rushers is that they're young.  None of our guys are coming off of a Lis Franc, like Mr. Freeney.

I'm happy Chris thinks so much of his new secondary, but when the Jaguars have a Defensive Player of the Year-type guy in their defensive backfield, they can say their secondary is better than Indy's. Maybe. Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea are the best safety tandem in football. Sanders won the DPOY and Bethea went to the Pro Bowl (and unlike other Pro Bowl safeties, Bethea is pretty good). And the corners, Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden, started every single game last season.

The result? The Colts had the #2 pass defense in football, allowing an average of 5.9 yards per competition with 16 TDs and 22 INTs. QB had an average rating of 73 against Indy. This entire DB unit will be back in 2008, and with the added depth of second year man Dante Hughes. Until the Jags have a secondary that produces like this, saying they are better is nonsense. Utter nonsense.

And they can say whatever they want about their LBers, but the fact is the Colts LBers define speed and hard hitting. They also have tremendous depth. 2007 rookie Clint Session was amazing, and with all three starting LBers coming back this unit is better than Jacksonville's. We also have yet to see what Philip Wheeler will bring to the equation. Indy's linebackers do an excellent job dropping into zones and making plays, and are very active in stopping the run.

The DE argument is silly. Freeney is recovering extremely well from his foot surgery and Robert Mathis is better than both Harvey and Groves. The younger guys may one day develop into great rushers, but we're not talking about two or three years from now. We're talking 2008, and the Colts will get even better in that area if they sign Rosevelt Colvin. Indy also drafted Marcus Howard, who is faster than both Freeney and Mathis.

So, I see little change in the AFC South. The Colts are still the most talented team in the division with the best coaches and front office personnel. I recognize that AFC South teams like the Jags have made significant moves to get better, and better they are. But it isn't enough. The Colts did not just sit ideally by. I realize this is boring to media hacks who are desperate for a story line, but the bottom line is Indy is still great, and the other AFC South teams still have not caught up.

Kelvin Hayden, drafted in the 2nd round of the 2005 draft, seen winning the Super Bowl.

Much has been written recently about the abortion that was the 2005 NFL Draft. The Vikings releasing DE Erasmus James highlighted yet another first round disappointment from the 2005 draft. James was the 17th overall player selected that year. As AOL Fanhouse's Sportz Assassin points out, the 2005 draft for the Vikings was a "horror show."

Remember that Minnesota traded Randy Moss to the Oakland Raiders for the #7 pick in the draft and linebacker Napoleon Harris. Harris played two years in Minnesota before moving on to Kansas City. That #7 pick turned into WR Troy Williamson, who sucked was less than stellar. Williamson was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars before last month's draft.

Third round pick Dustin Fox never played a down for the Vikings. Fourth round pick Ciatrick Fason became a goal line back before being release prior to last season. Sixth round pick DT C.J. Mosley played decent in his rookie season ... and was sent to the Jets for QB Brooks Bollinger. Seventh round pick Adrian Ward didn't make the roster.

Wow.

Now, to not totally dump on the Vikings, they have done an excellent job recently with the 2006 and 2007 drafts. Also, the Vikes were not the only team to bomb the 2005 Draft. Most teams did. The 2005 Draft is widely considered one of the worst drafts in recent memory. Take one look at the first round and it induces projectile vomiting if you are a fan of the 49ers, Bengals, Bucs, Bears, Titans, and Vikings. Of the top 10 picks that season, only one (Braylon Edwards) can be seen as a potential gamer.

In fact, if you glance through the entire first round, it is littered with busts, disappointments, and players (like Erasmus James and Cadillac Williams) whose young careers are threatened because of injury. Of the 32 players taken in the first round, I count only 5 who I'd consider worthy of their first round selection. Braylon Edwards (pick #3) is one. Here are the rest:

Dallas DE DeMarcus Ware (pick #11)

Chargers DT Luis Castillo (pick #28)

Pittsburgh TE Heath Miller (pick # 30)

Indianapolis CB Marlin Jackson (pick #29)

I don't include Chargers LBer Shawne Merriman (pick #12) worthy of first round selection. Merriman is a cheater who unapologetically got caught using steroids. This taints everything in his career whether he or Chargers fans like it or not.

A player who is (and should be) listed there is Colts CB Marlin Jackson. Jackson won the nickel corner spot his rookie year. By his second year he had a Super Bowl ring, won in part by his amazing INT at the end of the AFC Championship Game. By year three, he was the starter, playing all 17 games and helping the Colts to one of the best pass defenses in football.

Marlin's partner on the other side of the defense is CB Kelvin Hayden, who (like Marlin) was drafted in 2005. Hayden iced Super Bowl 41 his second year with an INT for a TD, and last year started all 17 games at RCB for Indy. The Colts also drafted back-up safety Matt Giordano in round 4 of the 2005 draft. Giordano is one of the fastest safeties in  football, and he could start on many NFL clubs, including the defending champion NY Giants, who are starved for depth at safety. Indy also drafted starting SAM linebacker Tyjuan Hagler in round 4.

So, while most teams, like the Vikings, Bengals, and Chiefs, had disastrous drafts in 2005, the Colts built much of their starting defensive unit with that 2005 college crop. Three starters and one key reserve player all hail from that draft. That's pretty damn good if the draft crop is good, but when you look at the unmitigated disaster that was the 2005 NFL Draft, getting four high quality players is amazing!

It seems every year some nitwit at ESPN or NFL Network says This is the year the [insert inferior AFC South team here] will overtake the Colts in the AFC South. They said it last season after Vince Young's rookie year. They said it the year before, after Jacksonville drafted Maurice Jones-Drew. They said it before that, when they actually thought that Steve McNair was a better QB than Peyton Manning. They've said it since 2003, and six straight AFC South titles later, they still don't get the hint. The Colts aren't going anywhere.

However, this year the racket is louder and (even worse) listened to a little more because the AFC South is now the best division in football. In 2007, no team had a losing record in the AFC South, and the "cellar dweller" 8-8 Houston Texans would have made the playoffs if they'd played in any other AFC Division. In the off-season, one AFC South team made "big moves" to try and unseat the Colts: The Jacksonville Jaguars.

I saw this diary by Jaguars fan remleym over at Big Cat Country, and like most rantings from Jags fans, it made me chuckle. Pretty much anything Jags fans do makes me chuckle. My favorite memory of covering the 2008 Draft is Chris getting up to use the head, and while he was gone the Jags traded up to the #8 spot. When he came back to the table where John and I sat, he asked us if anything happened. John and I tried not to snicker, and responded nonchalantly, Oh nothing much. By the way, the Jaguars are on the clock.

Chris' face when we said this was as priceless as a Peyton Manning MasterCard commercial.

DE Derrick Harvey, via www.orangeandbluehue.com

The Jaguars' draft day maneuvers were one of many off-season moves designed energize the team for a potential Super Bowl run. In 2007, the Jags won their first playoff game in almost a decade, physically beating the snot out of Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. They then went to New England and got waxed by the Patriots despite a tremendous game by QB David Garrard. The reason the Jaguars lost to the Patriots, and the reason they have not won a single AFC South title, is their lack of a pass rush. Despite what you may have heard about the Jaguars defense, it really isn't all that good.

Now before I get flamed, hear me out. The Jaguars are a very good team at shutting down an opponents running game. However, against the pass, the Jaguars flat out suck. They can't pressure the QB and their secondary is highly suspect. The Jaguars defense in 2007 allowed opposing playoff QBs to complete 78% of their passes for 599 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs.

In the modern NFL, that is a sucky defense.

Tom Brady torched the Jaguars in the 2007 post-season.

So, after their playoff exit, the Jaguars decided that throwing the football is a good thing to build your offense around. However, if you are going to throw, you must, must, MUST stop the other team from throwing. This means you need a pass rush. This is why the Jags traded up to get DE Derrick Harvey at pick #8 overall, and drafted DE Quintin Groves in the 2nd round. The Jags also landed WRs Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson in free agency to boost their passing attack. They jettisoned steroids cheater Marcus Stroud (DT), and they will soon part ways with 2005 draft bust WR Matt Jones. David Garrard is firmly entrenched as the starting QB, and head coach Jack Del Rio has a nice contract extension. They also added defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to their staff to go with secondary coach Donnie Henderson. On the surface, these are all good moves, and it's hard not to get excited if you are a Jags fan.

But, look closer.

All of you, take a look at the Colts roster and the Jaguars roster. Look at their proposed starting lineups on offense, defense, and special teams. Now, after looking at those areas, can you honestly (and with a straight face) tell me that the Jaguars have done enough to overtake the Colts? No, you can't.

There is not one single area where Jacksonville is "better" than Indy. Maybe their special teams coverage units. Maybe. Everything else is a clear advantage for the Colts. Indy's QB, WRs, o-line, d-line, TEs, CBs, safeties, LBers, kicker, and punter are all better than Jacksonville's. Even the running back position favors Indy. The Jags have two studs in Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, arguably the best RB tandem in football. But after them, there isn't much. They Colts have four starting caliber RBs, including rookie Mike Hart and Pro Bowler Joseph Addai. Despite Jacksonville's additions to their coaching staff, Indy's staff is still better. Tony Dungy, Tom Moore, and Howard Mudd are legends. Ron Meeks turned one of the worst defenses in NFL history into the best scoring defense in 2007, and RB coach Gene Huey is the most under-rated position coach in football.

The acquisition of WR Jerry Porter is not enough to make the Jags better than the Colts.

via www.raidersjersey.net

So, knowing all this, I don't think it is rational or prudent to claim the Jaguars have done enough to overtake the Colts in the AFC South. Of course, anything can, and likely will, happen in the 2008 season. But, right now, just looking at both rosters, the Jaguars are not better than the Colts. Not even close.