It is rare one gets a "must win" game in September, but that is the way it is looking for the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is a big game for the Colts as well. All division games are big. But, for the Jags, this is do or (perhaps) die. Starting 0-3, losing two division games in the process, is a pretty deep hole to climb out of. That is why we should expect a very determined, very "anything goes" attack from the Jaguars this week.

Week Three: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium- Indianapolis, IN
Kick-off Time: 4:15pm Eastern
Broadcast: CBS

Like the Colts, the Jags are very beat-up, in particular along the offensive line. Their starting center, Brad Meester, tore his bicep. He’s just now coming back to practice. Their reserve tackle, Richard Collier, was tragically wounded in a targeted shooting. Collier is still recovering, and we wish him well in his recovery. OT Todd Wade has also been hurt. The spotted kitties are also missing their prized free agent signing, WR Jerry Porter. Porter tore his hamstring in training camp, and a torn hamstring is not something that heals in just a few months. With all these offensive line problems and the absence of anyone at the WR position who can do anything, the Jags offense has really struggled. David Garrard threw 3 INTs all of last year. He has 3 in his first two games this year. But it is not the Jaguars offense that has been the most puzzling. It’s their defense. Here is something from Chris on their loss to Buffalo last week:

Trent Edwards was 20-25 for 239 and completed his first ten passes. Mathis hasn't been close to his 06 form and like most recent losses, every defensive series can best be summed up with stuffing the run and giving a QB all the time he needs.

The Jags have had a hard time the first two games pressuring the QB. In Week One, they let rookie phenom Chris Johnson run all over them. In Week Two, Trent Edwards looked like Jim Kelly. Knowing this, and knowing that the Colts are likely to have TE Dallas Clark and OC Jeff Saturday back for Sunday’s grudge match, here are the keys:

• Jacksonville has a new defensive coordinator (Gregg Williams) and a new defensive approach. They blitz more, have more complex coverages, and do many different things to disguise both. The last time the Colts played a Gregg Williams defense, they lit it up. But that was then. This time around, if the Jags follow the game plans of Chicago and Minnesota by crowding the line of scrimmage, the Colts must protect Peyton as he will likely go deep, looking for the big play. For two weeks, Colts WRs (in particular Reggie Wayne) have dropped several passes that would have gone for TDs or big yardage. In the second half against the Vikes, the Colts finally started to hit on those plays, and it cost the Vikings big time. Peyton is getting healthier, and if you blitz or crowd the line against a healthy Peyton, you will get burned. This might be (and I stress might, because the Jags are good) the week Peyton breaks out and lights someone up.
  
• Containing Fred Taylor is a must. Last year, the Colts swept the Jags in dominant fashion because Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew were neutralized. This year, the Colts run defense has reverted to 2006 form, and the last time that kind of defense played the Jags the result was nearly 300 yards rushing surrendered. Eric Foster proved he is a keeper at DT, but he is under-sized playing "nose tackle" in the Tampa 2 scheme. Bill Polian said that Lajuan Ramsey will see more snaps at DT this week as he gets more comfortable playing in this scheme. The Colts run defense found itself in the second half of last week’s game, limiting Adrian Peterson to 39 yards on 16 attempts. But, with SS Bob Sanders out for 6 weeks, the Colts will not be able to run the same Cover 3 defense they deploy against teams who run the ball on them. Melvin Bullitt is a good safety and will fill-in just fine for Bob. But what is key are the DTs, Freddie Keiaho, and Gary Brackett. They must bring the ball carrier down hard.
  
• Justin Forsett needs to get the Colts good field position. Special teams could be the equalizer this week. Coverage units have played well, for the most part, and Adam Vinatieri is booming kicks into the endzone. But it is KR Justin Forsett who needs t make something happen. He showed promise last week, and now he needs to deliver some.
  

As always, Chris at BCC is cross-blogging here and doing some great things at Big Cat. It has been a joy to see BCC’s community grow and prosper. Contrary to popular belief, the Jaguars do have a passionate fanbase. This game will likely turn those passionate fans into wild, rapid dogs. This is a big game. Both these teams are rivals with a lot of bad blood. It will be nerve racking, but entertaining. Not used to big games in September? Welcome to AFC South football.

You know, it's kind of funny sometimes.  We devote all sorts of time to talking about the special teams, the linebackers, and everything else.  While they're all important, when all is said and done, it all comes back to #18. 

Sure, Peyton's had some games where he hasn't been at his best and still gotten the W at the end of the day, and there's been other times where he's put on dazzling performances only to have it negated by poor play from the rest of his team.  But many more times than not, if Peyton is successful, so is the rest of the team.  As much as I love guys like Bob Sanders, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Marlin Jackson, Joseph Addai, Gary Brackett, no one has a greater impact week in and week out on whether this team wins or loses than Peyton Manning.

Maybe the previous paragraph is the most "well, duh" paragraph in the history of Stampede Blue, but I think it's important to remind ourselves from time to time that we have (arguably) one of the 5 greatest players of all-time playing for us this season.  With all of that said, this is going to be all I'm space I'm going to devote to Peyton in this preview, because we all know that we're going to get another spectacular season out of him like we do every season.  The start of the season might be a little more sluggish than what we've been used to, but Peyton is way too good to let a bursa sac keep him from playing at an elite level.

Now, as for my predictions and thoughts for what we can expect from everyone else...

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It seems every year some nitwit at ESPN or NFL Network says This is the year the [insert inferior AFC South team here] will overtake the Colts in the AFC South. They said it last season after Vince Young's rookie year. They said it the year before, after Jacksonville drafted Maurice Jones-Drew. They said it before that, when they actually thought that Steve McNair was a better QB than Peyton Manning. They've said it since 2003, and six straight AFC South titles later, they still don't get the hint. The Colts aren't going anywhere.

However, this year the racket is louder and (even worse) listened to a little more because the AFC South is now the best division in football. In 2007, no team had a losing record in the AFC South, and the "cellar dweller" 8-8 Houston Texans would have made the playoffs if they'd played in any other AFC Division. In the off-season, one AFC South team made "big moves" to try and unseat the Colts: The Jacksonville Jaguars.

I saw this diary by Jaguars fan remleym over at Big Cat Country, and like most rantings from Jags fans, it made me chuckle. Pretty much anything Jags fans do makes me chuckle. My favorite memory of covering the 2008 Draft is Chris getting up to use the head, and while he was gone the Jags traded up to the #8 spot. When he came back to the table where John and I sat, he asked us if anything happened. John and I tried not to snicker, and responded nonchalantly, Oh nothing much. By the way, the Jaguars are on the clock.

Chris' face when we said this was as priceless as a Peyton Manning MasterCard commercial.

DE Derrick Harvey, via www.orangeandbluehue.com

The Jaguars' draft day maneuvers were one of many off-season moves designed energize the team for a potential Super Bowl run. In 2007, the Jags won their first playoff game in almost a decade, physically beating the snot out of Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. They then went to New England and got waxed by the Patriots despite a tremendous game by QB David Garrard. The reason the Jaguars lost to the Patriots, and the reason they have not won a single AFC South title, is their lack of a pass rush. Despite what you may have heard about the Jaguars defense, it really isn't all that good.

Now before I get flamed, hear me out. The Jaguars are a very good team at shutting down an opponents running game. However, against the pass, the Jaguars flat out suck. They can't pressure the QB and their secondary is highly suspect. The Jaguars defense in 2007 allowed opposing playoff QBs to complete 78% of their passes for 599 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs.

In the modern NFL, that is a sucky defense.

Tom Brady torched the Jaguars in the 2007 post-season.

So, after their playoff exit, the Jaguars decided that throwing the football is a good thing to build your offense around. However, if you are going to throw, you must, must, MUST stop the other team from throwing. This means you need a pass rush. This is why the Jags traded up to get DE Derrick Harvey at pick #8 overall, and drafted DE Quintin Groves in the 2nd round. The Jags also landed WRs Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson in free agency to boost their passing attack. They jettisoned steroids cheater Marcus Stroud (DT), and they will soon part ways with 2005 draft bust WR Matt Jones. David Garrard is firmly entrenched as the starting QB, and head coach Jack Del Rio has a nice contract extension. They also added defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to their staff to go with secondary coach Donnie Henderson. On the surface, these are all good moves, and it's hard not to get excited if you are a Jags fan.

But, look closer.

All of you, take a look at the Colts roster and the Jaguars roster. Look at their proposed starting lineups on offense, defense, and special teams. Now, after looking at those areas, can you honestly (and with a straight face) tell me that the Jaguars have done enough to overtake the Colts? No, you can't.

There is not one single area where Jacksonville is "better" than Indy. Maybe their special teams coverage units. Maybe. Everything else is a clear advantage for the Colts. Indy's QB, WRs, o-line, d-line, TEs, CBs, safeties, LBers, kicker, and punter are all better than Jacksonville's. Even the running back position favors Indy. The Jags have two studs in Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, arguably the best RB tandem in football. But after them, there isn't much. They Colts have four starting caliber RBs, including rookie Mike Hart and Pro Bowler Joseph Addai. Despite Jacksonville's additions to their coaching staff, Indy's staff is still better. Tony Dungy, Tom Moore, and Howard Mudd are legends. Ron Meeks turned one of the worst defenses in NFL history into the best scoring defense in 2007, and RB coach Gene Huey is the most under-rated position coach in football.

The acquisition of WR Jerry Porter is not enough to make the Jags better than the Colts.

via www.raidersjersey.net

So, knowing all this, I don't think it is rational or prudent to claim the Jaguars have done enough to overtake the Colts in the AFC South. Of course, anything can, and likely will, happen in the 2008 season. But, right now, just looking at both rosters, the Jaguars are not better than the Colts. Not even close.