Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts: Week 11
Editor's Note: Be sure to get your picks in for the Stampede Blue Prediction Contest. You have until 1:00 ET Sunday. Get your picks in sooner rather than later.
Welcome to Week 10 of your Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts. I'll review last week before going into this week's studs and duds.
Sleepers:
- Chad Pennington: 209 passing, 1 TD/1 INT = 12 pts. Although his 1 touchdown pass was pretty neat (flea flicker), not a good day overall for Pennington. They did win at least.
- Leon Washington: 54 yds rush, 14 yds rec = 6 pts. I was one week early on this pick. The Jets put up 47 on the Rams, but none were by Washington. And I lost by 5 points.
- Matt Jones: 62 yards = 6 pts. Another 0-3 for my sleeper picks. I figured I was playing it safe going against the Lions. Porter and Williamson got the TDs though.
Busts:
- Peyton Manning: 240 yds passing, 3 TD = 27 pts. Aww shucks, I got this wrong too. I'm so disappointed. Thanks Peyton for proving me wrong. I'm sure he read this, and wanted to prove me wrong.
- Brian Westbrook: 26 yds rushing, 33 receiving = 5 pts. I got one! Westbrook was shut down by the Giants defense. I don't expect Westbrook to have similar numbers vs. Cincinnati this week.
- Andre Johnson: 66 yards = 6 pts. Can we keep Johnson at these numbers this week too, please?.
My bonus pick of David Garrard was spot on. 238 yds passing, 2 TD, 10 yds rush = 22 pts. Jacksonville doesn't lose to 2 winless teams in a row. I'm not looking forward to Thanksgiving, watching the Lions get slaughtered by the Titans.
So I was 3 / 7 last week, and 38/68 for the season. All the teams have finished their byes, so your fantasy teams are fully stocked from now on. Here are you fantasy nuggets for Week 11:
Sleepers:
- Matt Ryan vs. DEN: Cpt. Intangibles has been playing quite well this year, and should continue that at home against the Broncos, who rank 26th against Fantasy QBs this season.
- Pierre Thomas vs. KC: The Chiefs are dead last against RB this season, and Brees has struggled as of late. Expect the Saints to run more than normal, and Thomas to pick up those carries and yards.
- Bobby Engram vs. ARI: Hasselbeck is back from injury, and Arizona is dead last against WR. I'm looking for a nice game from Engram this week.
Busts:
- Tony Romo vs. WAS: Romo is also back from injury this week, playing a divisional game, on the road, against a defense ranked 5th against QBs. Terry's not gonna like it, but Romo's gonna struggle.
- LaDainian Tomlinson vs. PIT: This hasn't been the greatest year of LT to begin with, and the Steelers are #3 against RB this season. No big week for LT.
- T.J. Houshmandzadeh vs. PHI: The Eagles have pounded their lousy opponents this season, and it should be the same Sunday afternoon against the Bengals. They are also 6th best against WR this season. Plus I have the Eagles D this week, and I need lots of points from them without my man Portis.
Bonus pick: Jake Delhomme vs. DET. Delhomme was awful last week against the Raiders, but get the lowly Lions this week at home. I'll go out on a limb and say he has a better week than 4 picks last week.
Weekly Derek Anderson "bust" pick: I'm glad this is over. The Browns play Monday Night in Buffalo. Quinn should have another nice game, with it being blown at the end by his incompetent head coach.
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Peyton Manning: Old Man?
via z.about.com
Bob Kravitz has an article up discussing 10 years of Peyton Manning in the NFL:
Has it really been 10 seasons? How is it possible that Peyton Manning, now 32 years old and entering his 11th season, is really on the back-nine of his Hall of Fame career?
Wasn't it just 10 minutes ago the football world was debating whether Manning or Ryan Leaf was the best choice to play quarterback for the then-abysmal Indianapolis Colts?
Surprisingly, the article isn't garbage. I can only speak for myself, but I think it does seem like Peyton has played for a long time. His second year in the league was Dan Marino's last. Matt Ryan was in middle school. Tony Dungy was set and comfortable in his job in Tampa Bay. It was pre-9/11, pre-Iraq, and even pre-George W. Bush. I mean, Peyton has played since Bill Clinton was president. So, again, for someone like me, it does seem like Peyton has played for a long while.
That said, I admit it is a bit weird to see articles popping up talking about Peyton as the elder statesman of the NFL. But, with Brett Favre now retired (maybe), Peyton is the eldest elite QB left in this league. Even though guys like McNabb and Brady are close in age to Peyton, they are not quite as old (Peyton is 32). In recent years, we've been reading reports from camp that the Colts have Manning on a "pitch count." Now we hear the Colts have a special trainer who works on Peyton's arm. This trainer did the same job for Marino and Elway when they got into their 30s. Peyton himself admits it is a concern keeping his arm fresh:
I have thrown a lot of passes being a starter for that many years, going back to college.
The good news is Peyton is as healthy; probably as healthy as any 32-year-old QB can be. He conditions himself well, works very hard, and the Colts provide him with the resources necessary to keep his arm and body fresh. It is certainly very possible that he will play for another 6 years, retiring when he is ready, and not getting retired.
Another positive is the make-up of the team itself. The Colts are the second youngest team in football. Budding stars like Anthony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh, and Joseph Addai are the kinds of players Manning loves having on the team; young players with energy, wanting to prove they are the best. Also, this youth has kept the Colts competitive for years. Guys like Favre, Marino, and Elway went through dry spells where the team around them had to rebuild. Peyton has only really experienced this once, and for a short period of time (2001-2002). And as the Colts continue to bring in quality talent to fill needs, Peyton and the rest of the team keep chugging along.
The point: Peyton Manning will likely play at a high level for a while longer, God willing.
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Franchise Quarterbacks: Results
I gave some stats a couple days ago, and got some really good responses. It seems like the idea of picking a franchise quarterback, based on his college performance, is not as cut and dry as some may think. For the most part, everyone was in agreement that Quarterback D was the best choice. Here is the table again, with the quarterback's name included this time:
| Starts | Comp | Att | Comp. Pct | Yds | YPA | TD | INT | Rating | |
| Quinn | 46 | 929 | 1602 | 58.0% | 11762 | 7.34 | 95 | 39 | 90.62 |
| Cutler | 45 | 710 | 1242 | 57.2% | 8697 | 7.00 | 59 | 36 | 82.66 |
| Manning | 42 | 851 | 1354 | 62.9% | 11201 | 8.27 | 90 | 33 | 100.93 |
| Leinart | 39 | 807 | 1245 | 64.8% | 10693 | 8.59 | 99 | 23 | 110.69 |
| Ryan | 32 | 806 | 1346 | 59.9% | 9310 | 6.92 | 56 | 37 | 83.22 |
| Young | 32 | 444 | 718 | 61.8% | 6040 | 8.41 | 44 | 28 | 92.84 |
| Russell | 30 | 493 | 707 | 69.7% | 6625 | 9.37 | 52 | 21 | 111.38 |
So everyone wants Matt Leinart, eh? He, no doubt, had a great college career, going 37-2 as a starter at USC. I painfully sat through two of those wins, one as a senior, and the "Bush Push" game. However, the jury is still out on Leinart as a pro. If I had to make a decision right now, I'd say he was not a franchise quarterback in the NFL. He has made some really dumb decisions outside of football, which means he'll probably make some really dumb decisions on the football field. He doesn't seem to have the work ethic needed to succeed in the NFL, but only time will tell.
As PB noted in the comments in the original article, Vince Young also had his rushing numbers from college, that really helped his stats. I'd have to say he was drafted in the Top 3 because of his ability to run the ball, as his passing stats are below the others. He also made a great point about Matt Ryan:
Anyway, Matt Ryan’s got a LOT of pressure on him.
I think Ryan is the worst of the bunch, yet he'll have the most money of any of them up front. Personally, his high number of interceptions will be very problematic. He made a lot of plays at the end of games, which made the highlights, but also made a lot of dumb decisions, like all the interceptions. It seems fishy when the best thing about him is "his intangibles are off the charts." It is screaming "his measurable stats aren't good, but he is the best quarterback, so we need something to be good about him. Immeasurable 'Intangibles'".
Peyton also did quite well for himself in his 4 years at Tennessee. He seems like a pretty good franchise quarterback.
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Who would you like as a Franchise Quarterback?
Earlier this week, Matt Ryan signed a 6 year, $72 Million deal, with $34.7 Million guaranteed. This, in my opinion, is utterly absurd. I could go on and on about how ridiculous this is, but I'll point you in the direction of The Daily Norseman, SBNation's Vikings blog. Gonzo has a great article expressing my exact feelings about the entire situation much better than I ever could have. Here's the main idea:
There is NO reason for NFL teams to pay the amounts they're paying now to guys that haven't even attended an NFL Training Camp yet, never mind played in an NFL game. The NBA does it, and it's one of the few things that they actually do better than the NFL. The NBA doesn't have contract holdouts, they don't have to give potentially franchise-killing contracts to rookies. . .heck, even LeBron James had to earn his big payday. . .and teams know what they're getting into before they make their selections.
Make sure to check out the rest of his article. He makes some other great points.
Here's an exercise for you: I've put together the college stats for 6 quarterbacks drafted in the first round the past 3 seasons, minus Joe Flacco, as his stats are skewed by playing in Div 1-AA. The QBs are:
- Jay Cutler
- Matt Leinart
- Vince Young
- Brady Quinn
- JaMarcus Russell
- Matt Ryan
I've also included a 7th mystery quarterback, who was drafted some years ago. I've used the NFL's version of QB Rating, rather than the college Rating system.
| Starts | Comp | Att | Comp. Pct | Yds | YPA | TD | INT | Rating | |
| A | 46 | 929 | 1602 | 58.0% | 11762 | 7.34 | 95 | 39 | 90.62 |
| B | 45 | 710 | 1242 | 57.2% | 8697 | 7.00 | 59 | 36 | 82.66 |
| C | 42 | 851 | 1354 | 62.9% | 11201 | 8.27 | 90 | 33 | 100.93 |
| D | 39 | 807 | 1245 | 64.8% | 10693 | 8.59 | 99 | 23 | 110.69 |
| E | 32 | 806 | 1346 | 59.9% | 9310 | 6.92 | 56 | 37 | 83.22 |
| F | 32 | 444 | 718 | 61.8% | 6040 | 8.41 | 44 | 28 | 92.84 |
| G | 30 | 493 | 707 | 69.7% | 6625 | 9.37 | 52 | 21 | 111.38 |
Tomorrow or Saturday, I'll post who each quarterback is, along with Stampede Blue's consensus choice of franchise quarterback.
Also, Tony Dungy will be joining Mike and Mike live from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway at 7:45 tomorrow (Friday) morning. You can hear it on ESPN Radio, and watch it on ESPN2.
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