It is rare one gets a "must win" game in September, but that is the way it is looking for the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is a big game for the Colts as well. All division games are big. But, for the Jags, this is do or (perhaps) die. Starting 0-3, losing two division games in the process, is a pretty deep hole to climb out of. That is why we should expect a very determined, very "anything goes" attack from the Jaguars this week.

Week Three: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium- Indianapolis, IN
Kick-off Time: 4:15pm Eastern
Broadcast: CBS

Like the Colts, the Jags are very beat-up, in particular along the offensive line. Their starting center, Brad Meester, tore his bicep. He’s just now coming back to practice. Their reserve tackle, Richard Collier, was tragically wounded in a targeted shooting. Collier is still recovering, and we wish him well in his recovery. OT Todd Wade has also been hurt. The spotted kitties are also missing their prized free agent signing, WR Jerry Porter. Porter tore his hamstring in training camp, and a torn hamstring is not something that heals in just a few months. With all these offensive line problems and the absence of anyone at the WR position who can do anything, the Jags offense has really struggled. David Garrard threw 3 INTs all of last year. He has 3 in his first two games this year. But it is not the Jaguars offense that has been the most puzzling. It’s their defense. Here is something from Chris on their loss to Buffalo last week:

Trent Edwards was 20-25 for 239 and completed his first ten passes. Mathis hasn't been close to his 06 form and like most recent losses, every defensive series can best be summed up with stuffing the run and giving a QB all the time he needs.

The Jags have had a hard time the first two games pressuring the QB. In Week One, they let rookie phenom Chris Johnson run all over them. In Week Two, Trent Edwards looked like Jim Kelly. Knowing this, and knowing that the Colts are likely to have TE Dallas Clark and OC Jeff Saturday back for Sunday’s grudge match, here are the keys:

• Jacksonville has a new defensive coordinator (Gregg Williams) and a new defensive approach. They blitz more, have more complex coverages, and do many different things to disguise both. The last time the Colts played a Gregg Williams defense, they lit it up. But that was then. This time around, if the Jags follow the game plans of Chicago and Minnesota by crowding the line of scrimmage, the Colts must protect Peyton as he will likely go deep, looking for the big play. For two weeks, Colts WRs (in particular Reggie Wayne) have dropped several passes that would have gone for TDs or big yardage. In the second half against the Vikes, the Colts finally started to hit on those plays, and it cost the Vikings big time. Peyton is getting healthier, and if you blitz or crowd the line against a healthy Peyton, you will get burned. This might be (and I stress might, because the Jags are good) the week Peyton breaks out and lights someone up.
  
• Containing Fred Taylor is a must. Last year, the Colts swept the Jags in dominant fashion because Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew were neutralized. This year, the Colts run defense has reverted to 2006 form, and the last time that kind of defense played the Jags the result was nearly 300 yards rushing surrendered. Eric Foster proved he is a keeper at DT, but he is under-sized playing "nose tackle" in the Tampa 2 scheme. Bill Polian said that Lajuan Ramsey will see more snaps at DT this week as he gets more comfortable playing in this scheme. The Colts run defense found itself in the second half of last week’s game, limiting Adrian Peterson to 39 yards on 16 attempts. But, with SS Bob Sanders out for 6 weeks, the Colts will not be able to run the same Cover 3 defense they deploy against teams who run the ball on them. Melvin Bullitt is a good safety and will fill-in just fine for Bob. But what is key are the DTs, Freddie Keiaho, and Gary Brackett. They must bring the ball carrier down hard.
  
• Justin Forsett needs to get the Colts good field position. Special teams could be the equalizer this week. Coverage units have played well, for the most part, and Adam Vinatieri is booming kicks into the endzone. But it is KR Justin Forsett who needs t make something happen. He showed promise last week, and now he needs to deliver some.
  

As always, Chris at BCC is cross-blogging here and doing some great things at Big Cat. It has been a joy to see BCC’s community grow and prosper. Contrary to popular belief, the Jaguars do have a passionate fanbase. This game will likely turn those passionate fans into wild, rapid dogs. This is a big game. Both these teams are rivals with a lot of bad blood. It will be nerve racking, but entertaining. Not used to big games in September? Welcome to AFC South football.

Today, all players under contract for the Indianapolis Colts are required to report to Rose Hulman Institute for the start of mandatory training camp for the 2008 season. Nearly 48 hours after Bill Polian said he "didn't care" if his draft picks were signed in time for camp, a flurry of activity has seen Indy signed top pick Mike Pollak; 6th round picks Mike Hart and Pierre Garcon; TE Jacob Tamme; and DE Marcus Howard. One interesting note out of the rookie signings: Howard got a 4 year deal. Not sure the terms, but it is a tad unusual for a 5th round pick to get a 4 year deal. Maybe Indy really sees something in Howard.

The Colts also made some moves in (gasp!) free agency! I nearly fell out of my chair when I saw the position the moves the moves for: Quarterback.

Rotoworld has picked up a story floated by the Internet's resident Joan Rivers (Mike Florio) that the Colts have signed former Jags QB Quinn Gray and former Giants QB Jared "I'm really fat" Lorenzen (tip to farris6659). Of course, in usual Florio style, rather than report the news he simply starts making stuff up, speculating the moves are a sign that Peyton Manning will not be ready for the regular season. Gee, thanks Mike. I'm sure it has nothing to do with Indy trying to upgrade its back-up QB position, which for the last few years has been manned by the immortal Jim Sorgi.

Quinn Gray, Indy's new back-up QB?

Photo via cache.daylife.com

Or, maybe Indy signed Gray so they could get the inside dirt on the Jaguars new offense, which (with WR Jerry Porter out all pre-season with a hamstring injury) looks surprising similar to the Jaguars offense the Colts swept last season.

Starting training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform (or PUP) list are DE Dwight Freeney, OG Ryan Lilja, SS Bob Sanders, and QB Peyton Manning. When he gets signed, rookie TE Tom Santi will also join these men on the PUP. Because of this injury to Santi, in my mind Jacob Tamme is now the front runner to replace Ben Utecht as the starting #2 TE. Tamme will have a leg up on learning the offense, working with the QBs, and he'll have a chance to prove he can block at the pro level. There is also Gijon Robinson, who already knows the offense.

I'll try posting my training camp depth chart list later today. We will also be getting updates from site reader Matic. For a complete schedule of training camp, click here. If you have the chance to drive to Terre Haute and attend camp, I strongly suggest you do so. It is a lot of fun. And when you are done, log in here and post your thoughts on players, coaches, and other training camp news.

Can you smell it in the air, folks? I can.

IT'S FOOTBALL! GO COLTS!

The only other person who hates Jeremy Green more than me is Deshawn Zombie at 18 to 88. With Green, it is an endless cycle of stupidity and odd, excessive hands movements on TV. Deshawn Zombie sums up well Green's latest foray into the realm of the delusional:

I've killed Jeremy Green in this space more times than I care to count, but this this may be the single most comedic thing he's said. The man knows nothing about football. His entire experience comes from working in one of the all time worst front offices in history (the Browns of the early 00s), and from his dad, deposed coach and Coors Light star Dennis Green. He apparently equates Porter leaving Oakland to Moss leaving Oakland. Uh, I think there were some differences too, but if those aren't painfully obvious to everyone with a brain, then me explaining them won't help.

Green seems to think that adding Jerry Porter will make the Jaguars offense better than the Colts. There's no debate that adding Porter will help the Jaguars, but make their offense better than Indy's? Of course, no one at ESPN agrees with Green, and many think the Colts defense is better than the Jaguars (they're right, of course).

More stupidity from Green.

And more.

And even more.

via Washington Post

It's always fun to speculate which team has done the most to unseat the Colts overlords of the AFC South. The reason it's fun is because the Titans, Jaguars, and Texans often go to such lengths to strengthen their teams each and every year only to get smacked down again and again by the Indy machine. As a result of their efforts, the Colts have gotten better and the collective improvement has made the AFC South the best division in football. Yes, I know the Giants won the Super Bowl and Dallas was 13-3 in 2007. Dallas also hasn't won a playoff game in 15 years, and the other NFC East playoff team (Washington) would get smoked by anyone in the AFC South, including a Sage Rosenfels-led Texans team. So please, spare me the NFC East talk. Yes, it's a good division; a GREAT division. It isn't the South.

Even with the South being so strong in 2007, I personally think most of the AFC South teams got better this off-season, with the exception of the Titans (more on them later). Aside from the AFC South having some of the best teams in football, they also have the best team bloggers in football. I'll freely admit that I am the agitator in our blogger division. Rarely do you see Jimmy writing articles about how Bob Sanders can't stay healthy, or Tim typing stories about how Indy's special teams play sucks. However, you are sure to see me writing a post either insulting Vince Young or criticizing the stupid draft moves of Gary Kubiak. I wouldn't do this if I didn't feel that guys like Tim, Chris, and Jimmy would not immediately call me "idiot" are debunk my claims with intelligent points with just a pinch of homerism. This is why we do what we do.

This is team blogging.

In this case, I think the Texans and Jaguars have bettered themselves since last season, with the Titans noticeably getting worse in the talent department. However, despite the changes (good or bad), none of these teams have done enough to unseat the Colts, who themselves have made great moves to shore up their weaknesses.

The off-season fad is to say the Jaguars have finally done enough to unseat Indy. Even AOL has found a writer who thinks the additions of WR Jerry Porter, CB Drayton Florence, WR Troy Williamson, and draft day additions like DE Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves are enough to knock off a Colts team that has beaten the Jaguars 5 of the last 6 times. Indeed, even the football guru himself, John Clayton, thought the Jaguars had an impressive run in free agency.

Did getting Drayton Florence (#29) help push the Jags over the Colts?

Photo via www.nctimes.com

While the Jaguars are much improved, it is important to note that so are the Colts. New Era Scouting's Dave Gardner has an article up talking about how the Colts are, quietly (per usual), shaping into the best team in football talent-wise.

The Colts could have kept the same roster from last season and still made it to the playoffs. With all the skill positions in place on offense (they’ll be fine with or without Marvin Harrison), and an excellent back seven on defense, they were in place to win at least ten games. However, as they prepare for the first season in a new stadium, it should be ready to host more than just the eight regular season games.

Not long ago, I wrote about how the Jaguars do not have a single area of their team that is better than Indy's. Chris at Big Cat responded, disagreeing with my take and offering little rebuttal in terms of substance.

I'll grant Quarterback, I'll even concede the offensive line and Tight Ends.  But to say that the Colts have better Linebackers, Defensive Line, and Secondary than the Jaguars is an ignorant statement.  The Jaguars use their linebackers a little differently than the Colts do in the "Dungy 2", and really can't be compared directly.  The combination of Durrant, Ingram, Peterson, and Smith give the Jaguars three guys who can play every combination of linebacker spots, the speed to play sideline to sideline, and a nasty hard hitting attitude.  I'd take our bench linebacker over any of the Colts starters.  Remember, the biggest knock on the Jaguars pass rushers is that they're young.  None of our guys are coming off of a Lis Franc, like Mr. Freeney.

I'm happy Chris thinks so much of his new secondary, but when the Jaguars have a Defensive Player of the Year-type guy in their defensive backfield, they can say their secondary is better than Indy's. Maybe. Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea are the best safety tandem in football. Sanders won the DPOY and Bethea went to the Pro Bowl (and unlike other Pro Bowl safeties, Bethea is pretty good). And the corners, Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden, started every single game last season.

The result? The Colts had the #2 pass defense in football, allowing an average of 5.9 yards per competition with 16 TDs and 22 INTs. QB had an average rating of 73 against Indy. This entire DB unit will be back in 2008, and with the added depth of second year man Dante Hughes. Until the Jags have a secondary that produces like this, saying they are better is nonsense. Utter nonsense.

And they can say whatever they want about their LBers, but the fact is the Colts LBers define speed and hard hitting. They also have tremendous depth. 2007 rookie Clint Session was amazing, and with all three starting LBers coming back this unit is better than Jacksonville's. We also have yet to see what Philip Wheeler will bring to the equation. Indy's linebackers do an excellent job dropping into zones and making plays, and are very active in stopping the run.

The DE argument is silly. Freeney is recovering extremely well from his foot surgery and Robert Mathis is better than both Harvey and Groves. The younger guys may one day develop into great rushers, but we're not talking about two or three years from now. We're talking 2008, and the Colts will get even better in that area if they sign Rosevelt Colvin. Indy also drafted Marcus Howard, who is faster than both Freeney and Mathis.

So, I see little change in the AFC South. The Colts are still the most talented team in the division with the best coaches and front office personnel. I recognize that AFC South teams like the Jags have made significant moves to get better, and better they are. But it isn't enough. The Colts did not just sit ideally by. I realize this is boring to media hacks who are desperate for a story line, but the bottom line is Indy is still great, and the other AFC South teams still have not caught up.

It seems every year some nitwit at ESPN or NFL Network says This is the year the [insert inferior AFC South team here] will overtake the Colts in the AFC South. They said it last season after Vince Young's rookie year. They said it the year before, after Jacksonville drafted Maurice Jones-Drew. They said it before that, when they actually thought that Steve McNair was a better QB than Peyton Manning. They've said it since 2003, and six straight AFC South titles later, they still don't get the hint. The Colts aren't going anywhere.

However, this year the racket is louder and (even worse) listened to a little more because the AFC South is now the best division in football. In 2007, no team had a losing record in the AFC South, and the "cellar dweller" 8-8 Houston Texans would have made the playoffs if they'd played in any other AFC Division. In the off-season, one AFC South team made "big moves" to try and unseat the Colts: The Jacksonville Jaguars.

I saw this diary by Jaguars fan remleym over at Big Cat Country, and like most rantings from Jags fans, it made me chuckle. Pretty much anything Jags fans do makes me chuckle. My favorite memory of covering the 2008 Draft is Chris getting up to use the head, and while he was gone the Jags traded up to the #8 spot. When he came back to the table where John and I sat, he asked us if anything happened. John and I tried not to snicker, and responded nonchalantly, Oh nothing much. By the way, the Jaguars are on the clock.

Chris' face when we said this was as priceless as a Peyton Manning MasterCard commercial.

DE Derrick Harvey, via www.orangeandbluehue.com

The Jaguars' draft day maneuvers were one of many off-season moves designed energize the team for a potential Super Bowl run. In 2007, the Jags won their first playoff game in almost a decade, physically beating the snot out of Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers. They then went to New England and got waxed by the Patriots despite a tremendous game by QB David Garrard. The reason the Jaguars lost to the Patriots, and the reason they have not won a single AFC South title, is their lack of a pass rush. Despite what you may have heard about the Jaguars defense, it really isn't all that good.

Now before I get flamed, hear me out. The Jaguars are a very good team at shutting down an opponents running game. However, against the pass, the Jaguars flat out suck. They can't pressure the QB and their secondary is highly suspect. The Jaguars defense in 2007 allowed opposing playoff QBs to complete 78% of their passes for 599 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs.

In the modern NFL, that is a sucky defense.

Tom Brady torched the Jaguars in the 2007 post-season.

So, after their playoff exit, the Jaguars decided that throwing the football is a good thing to build your offense around. However, if you are going to throw, you must, must, MUST stop the other team from throwing. This means you need a pass rush. This is why the Jags traded up to get DE Derrick Harvey at pick #8 overall, and drafted DE Quintin Groves in the 2nd round. The Jags also landed WRs Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson in free agency to boost their passing attack. They jettisoned steroids cheater Marcus Stroud (DT), and they will soon part ways with 2005 draft bust WR Matt Jones. David Garrard is firmly entrenched as the starting QB, and head coach Jack Del Rio has a nice contract extension. They also added defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to their staff to go with secondary coach Donnie Henderson. On the surface, these are all good moves, and it's hard not to get excited if you are a Jags fan.

But, look closer.

All of you, take a look at the Colts roster and the Jaguars roster. Look at their proposed starting lineups on offense, defense, and special teams. Now, after looking at those areas, can you honestly (and with a straight face) tell me that the Jaguars have done enough to overtake the Colts? No, you can't.

There is not one single area where Jacksonville is "better" than Indy. Maybe their special teams coverage units. Maybe. Everything else is a clear advantage for the Colts. Indy's QB, WRs, o-line, d-line, TEs, CBs, safeties, LBers, kicker, and punter are all better than Jacksonville's. Even the running back position favors Indy. The Jags have two studs in Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, arguably the best RB tandem in football. But after them, there isn't much. They Colts have four starting caliber RBs, including rookie Mike Hart and Pro Bowler Joseph Addai. Despite Jacksonville's additions to their coaching staff, Indy's staff is still better. Tony Dungy, Tom Moore, and Howard Mudd are legends. Ron Meeks turned one of the worst defenses in NFL history into the best scoring defense in 2007, and RB coach Gene Huey is the most under-rated position coach in football.

The acquisition of WR Jerry Porter is not enough to make the Jags better than the Colts.

via www.raidersjersey.net

So, knowing all this, I don't think it is rational or prudent to claim the Jaguars have done enough to overtake the Colts in the AFC South. Of course, anything can, and likely will, happen in the 2008 season. But, right now, just looking at both rosters, the Jaguars are not better than the Colts. Not even close.