Stampede Blue's The Winning Stats

For the last three years, Stampede Blue blogger and numbers wizard Matt Grecco (aka, mgrex03) has looked at an array of stats reaching across all aspects of the game. He found out which stats lead to the most wins (Drive Success Rate and Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt), and which ones lead to the least wins (Yards / Carry and Net Punting Average), based on statistics from 2001 - 2011. Matt has had lots of time to figure out which stats we wanted to look at, and he is now ready to fully explain his methodology so that Stampede Blue can use his "Winning Stats" system to track the progress of the Colts.

This stats system is unique to Stampede Blue. We are not parroting tables and theories here from excellent sites like Football Outsiders. This is our stats system developed internally by Matt Grecco.

As you begin to dig into the numbers, you will see how Matt's analysis is scary good at spotting the winning factors. The numbers cut through the hype and get to the bottom of who is good and who is smoke and mirrors.

Throughout the season, we'll be tracking the Colts stats in each category, as well as bringing you Power Rankings, Strength of Schedule (both past and future), and Consistency Rankings each week.

2010 Season Stats

2011 Season Stats

Last Updated: 11 December, 2012 (click on headers to sort)

Season Stats - Non-Adjusted:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 74.1% 9 Patriots 73.2% 25 Bears 75-11 0.872
ANPY/A 5.533 21 Patriots 6.862 27 Bears 94-8 0.922
Turnovers 2.00 26 Patriots 0.77 31 Bears 85-20 0.810
Yds/Drive 34.30 9 Patriots 33.18 22 Steelers 62-17 0.785
ToP/Drive 2:47.1 11 Seahawks 2:38.9 13 Texans 78-20 0.796
Yds/Play 5.377 20 Redskins 5.875 26 49ers 59-23 0.720
Orange Zone Eff 54.1% 26 Saints 65.7% 31 Cardinals 80-19 0.808
First Downs/Drive 2.11 2 Patriots 1.84 20 Texans 61-23 0.726
3rd/4th Down 44.9% 3 Patriots 39.1% 16 Texans 71-24 0.747
Avg Start Pos 24.1 32 Giants 26.1 8 Patriots 78-25 0.757
3 and Outs 2.54 6 Patriots 2.85 23 Texans 63-22 0.741
RZ Eff 69.6% 13 Buccaneers 75.1% 29 Seahawks 71-29 0.710
Plays/Drive 6.379 3 Patriots 5.648 10 Texans 54-30 0.643
Penalty Yds / Play 0.703 4 Falcons 1.247 1 Colts 61-34 0.642
RB Success 44.5% 19 Patriots 43.9% 10 49ers 54-55 0.495
Yds/Carry 3.87 23 Vikings 4.71 28 Buccaneers 53-52 0.505
Overall 12 Patriots 25 Bears

Season Stats - Adjusted:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 71.1% 13 Patriots 73.6% 31 Bears 75-11 0.872
ANPY/A 4.980 21 Patriots 6.935 28 Bears 94-8 0.922
Turnovers 2.08 25 49ers 0.83 32 Bears 85-20 0.810
Yds/Drive 31.34 12 Patriots 33.85 30 Steelers 62-17 0.785
ToP/Drive 2:48.0 12 Seahawks 2:48.0 22 Texans 78-20 0.796
Yds/Play 5.104 22 Redskins 5.878 31 49ers 59-23 0.720
Orange Zone Eff 51.1% 24 Saints 62.1% 31 Giants 80-19 0.808
First Downs/Drive 1.93 4 Patriots 1.85 26 Cardinals 61-23 0.726
3rd/4th Down 42.9% 7 Patriots 40.0% 22 Texans 71-24 0.747
Avg Start Pos 26.7 32 Giants 28.5 7 49ers 78-25 0.757
3 and Outs 3.30 9 Patriots 3.17 29 Cardinals 63-22 0.741
RZ Eff 67.0% 15 Buccaneers 73.5% 30 Bears 71-29 0.710
Plays/Drive 6.166 3 Patriots 5.761 21 Cardinals 54-30 0.643
Penalty Yds / Play 0.691 5 Falcons 1.222 1 Colts 61-34 0.642
RB Success 41.4% 22 Patriots 41.0% 5 49ers 54-55 0.495
Yds/Carry 3.86 22 Vikings 4.46 26 Buccaneers 53-52 0.505
Overall 13 Patriots 32 Bears

Power Rankings:

Team Power Rankings
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
49ers 3 4 2 2 4 1
Patriots 1 15 1 1 20 2
Broncos 2 5 3 5 5 3
Seahawks 8 7 5 4 7 4
Texans 15 2 4 16 3 5
Bears 22 1 6 24 1 6
Giants 6 13 8 8 9 7
Packers 10 11 9 7 12 8
Redskins 4 26 14 3 23 9
Lions 11 17 12 10 15 10
Falcons 5 14 7 12 16 11
Steelers 18 6 10 22 6 12
Ravens 17 12 13 15 13 13
Buccaneers 14 20 16 17 11 14
Cowboys 7 23 15 6 24 15
Bengals 16 9 11 14 14 16
Panthers 13 27 19 11 21 17
Rams 24 19 22 20 17 18
Saints 9 32 21 9 29 19
Chargers 19 16 18 23 18 20
Vikings 23 21 28 19 22 21
Eagles 20 22 25 18 25 22
Browns 30 8 20 30 8 23
Jets 29 10 23 29 10 24
Cardinals 32 3 26 32 2 25
Dolphins 26 18 24 27 19 26
Colts 12 25 17 13 32 27
Bills 21 24 27 21 27 28
Titans 27 31 31 25 28 29
Chiefs 28 28 30 28 30 30
Raiders 25 30 29 26 31 31
Jaguars 31 29 32 31 26 32

Strength of Schedule:

Team Schedule Strength
Past Future
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Rams 1 11 1 8 10 6
Panthers 8 3 2 30 23 30
Cardinals 13 1 3 2 1 1
Cowboys 6 8 4 24 7 15
Giants 18 2 5 16 12 12
Seahawks 2 20 6 17 4 8
Packers 4 13 7 19 22 20
Vikings 3 16 8 5 14 9
Saints 16 4 9 21 13 16
Redskins 15 6 10 18 21 19
Eagles 7 10 11 20 2 10
Lions 12 9 12 1 28 7
49ers 5 21 13 3 8 2
Bears 26 5 14 6 19 11
Jets 11 12 15 31 24 32
Buccaneers 31 7 16 22 11 14
Dolphins 14 19 17 29 17 27
Titans 22 18 18 23 32 29
Chiefs 20 22 19 28 15 25
Ravens 21 24 20 7 5 3
Falcons 28 15 21 13 6 5
Raiders 10 29 22 26 26 28
Broncos 30 14 23 14 30 23
Jaguars 27 23 24 27 16 24
Patriots 9 30 25 15 25 22
Bills 17 28 26 9 27 21
Chargers 23 25 27 25 31 31
Steelers 24 26 28 12 20 17
Texans 25 27 29 32 9 26
Browns 32 17 30 11 3 4
Bengals 19 31 31 10 18 13
Colts 29 32 32 4 29 18

Consistency:

Team Consistency
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Lions 17 1 2 20 1 1
Cowboys 10 30 1 16 31 2
Buccaneers 13 14 10 9 20 3
Browns 18 24 5 13 27 4
Broncos 21 7 17 12 7 5
Saints 20 2 8 22 2 6
Colts 2 11 15 6 11 7
Panthers 32 10 9 32 18 8
Patriots 3 4 4 2 6 9
Chiefs 24 22 3 21 29 10
Chargers 25 8 22 17 4 11
Rams 11 19 11 10 12 12
Jaguars 7 9 13 8 17 13
Raiders 5 27 18 18 23 14
Bears 31 20 30 30 10 15
Steelers 26 16 7 26 21 16
Cardinals 1 6 19 1 8 17
Texans 6 29 26 3 15 18
Redskins 4 5 20 7 14 19
Bills 12 31 28 11 30 20
Dolphins 27 13 16 31 9 21
Eagles 16 26 12 19 28 22
Bengals 9 17 25 5 22 23
Falcons 23 25 6 23 24 24
Ravens 28 18 24 27 3 25
Packers 8 23 14 14 16 26
Jets 30 28 32 24 5 27
Vikings 15 3 21 4 13 28
Seahawks 14 32 27 15 32 29
Titans 29 15 29 25 19 30
Giants 22 12 23 29 25 31
49ers 19 21 31 28 26 32

Colts Week-by-Week Rankings:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Bears 313 276 345 191 310 278
2 Vikings 212 296 277 254 315 341
3 Jaguars 162 151 113 222 314 310
4 BYE
5 Packers 188 143 123 159 111 86
6 Jets 318 382 398 318 413 412
7 Browns 108 298 190 76 376 252
8 Titans 45 359 193 70 394 264
9 Dolphins 31 339 160 37 397 221
10 Jaguars 88 60 27 145 175 132
11 Patriots 209 410 381 213 355 349
12 Bills 180 164 138 270 185 249
13 Lions 267 175 242 274 141 201
14 Titans 225 176 196 307 241 334
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