Stampede Blue's The Winning Stats - 2010

For the last two years, Stampede Blue blogger and numbers wizard Matt Grecco (aka, mgrex03) has looked at an array of stats reaching across all aspects of the game. He found out which stats lead to the most wins (Drive Success Rate and Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt), and which ones lead to the least wins (Yards / Carry and Net Punting Average), based on statistics from 2001 - 2008. Matt has had lots of time to figure out which stats we wanted to look at, and he is now ready to fully explain his methodology so that Stampede Blue can use his "Winning Stats" system to track the progress of the Colts.

This stats system is unique to Stampede Blue. We are not parroting tables and theories here from excellent sites like Football Outsiders. This is our stats system developed internally by Matt Grecco.

As you begin to dig into the numbers, you will see how Matt's analysis is scary good at spotting the winning factors. The numbers cut through the hype and get to the bottom of who is good and who is smoke and mirrors.

Throughout the season, we'll be tracking the Colts stats in each category, as well as bringing you Power Rankings, Strength of Schedule (both past and future), and Consistency Rankings each week.

Last Updated: 10 January, 2010

Season Stats - Non-Adjusted:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 76.7% 2 Patriots 71.7% 24 Giants 87-17 0.837
ANPY/A 6.471 7 Patriots 6.058 24 Packers 115-15 0.885
Turnovers 1.56 12 Patriots 1.31 28 Giants 130-27 0.828
Yds/Drive 35.63 3 Patriots 31.41 24 Jets 93-26 0.782
ToP/Drive 2:47.9 11 Saints 2:48.5 27 Giants 102-25 0.803
Yds/Play 5.594 9 Chargers 5.411 21 Steelers 84-38 0.689
First Downs/Drive 2.14 1 Colts 1.80 27 Giants 86-26 0.768
3rd/4th Down 45.3% 4 Saints 39.4% 20 Giants 92-34 0.730
Avg Start Pos 27.6 30 Bears 28.8 9 Falcons 119-28 0.810
3 and Outs 2.94 6 Jaguars 3.75 17 Jets 72-27 0.727
RZ Eff 80.1% 1 Colts 68.2% 23 Cardinals 89-33 0.730
Plays/Drive 6.368 1 Colts 5.805 28 Raiders 84-35 0.706
Penalty Yds / Play 0.651 5 Falcons 0.804 16 Raiders 62-51 0.549
RB Success 46.3% 15 Patriots 53.4% 30 Steelers 73-46 0.613
Yds/Carry 3.77 27 Eagles 4.57 25 Steelers 76-57 0.571
Net Punts Yds/Game 37.83 24 Cowboys 41.22 29 Bears 57-48 0.543
Overall 4 Patriots 25 Giants

Season Stats - Adjusted:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 75.4% 3 Patriots 69.4% 17 Jets 87-17 0.837
ANPY/A 5.936 14 Patriots 5.520 14 Packers 115-15 0.885
Turnovers 1.80 16 Patriots 1.22 29 Patriots 130-27 0.828
Yds/Drive 34.66 3 Patriots 29.80 19 Jets 93-26 0.782
ToP/Drive 2:49.0 11 Packers 2:52.0 28 Giants 102-25 0.803
Yds/Play 5.399 12 Patriots 5.005 10 Chargers 84-38 0.689
First Downs/Drive 2.11 2 Patriots 1.73 20 Giants 86-26 0.768
3rd/4th Down 44.4% 5 Patriots 38.8% 16 Giants 92-34 0.730
Avg Start Pos 27.7 30 Bears 30.2 15 Falcons 119-28 0.810
3 and Outs 3.02 4 Texans 4.24 10 Jets 72-27 0.727
RZ Eff 80.3% 1 Colts 62.3% 14 Steelers 89-33 0.730
Plays/Drive 6.408 1 Colts 5.841 26 Raiders 84-35 0.706
Penalty Yds / Play 0.601 4 Dolphins 0.801 13 Raiders 62-51 0.549
RB Success 46.2% 12 Patriots 50.2% 30 Steelers 73-46 0.613
Yds/Carry 3.70 26 Eagles 4.14 14 Steelers 76-57 0.571
Net Punts Yds/Game 39.31 14 Cowboys 40.59 29 Bears 57-48 0.543
Overall 6 Patriots 21 Jets

Power Rankings:

Team Power Rankings
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Steelers 9 4 2 8 3 1
Packers 7 6 3 3 6 2
Patriots 1 27 5 1 25 3
Chargers 2 5 1 7 7 4
Jets 15 2 8 17 1 5
Ravens 14 8 10 13 5 6
Eagles 12 11 9 11 9 7
Falcons 5 10 4 4 13 8
Giants 16 1 7 19 2 9
Saints 6 16 6 5 22 10
Colts 4 25 12 6 21 11
Bengals 17 17 16 14 11 12
Cowboys 11 23 14 10 23 13
Dolphins 18 15 17 16 12 14
Bears 29 3 18 25 4 15
Buccaneers 8 22 13 9 28 16
Lions 19 19 21 15 20 17
Texans 3 32 19 2 32 18
Vikings 25 14 23 23 10 19
Raiders 22 7 15 26 8 20
Chiefs 13 12 11 18 16 21
Jaguars 10 31 20 12 29 22
Browns 21 28 27 20 24 23
Redskins 27 20 25 27 14 24
Titans 23 26 26 24 17 25
Bills 24 29 30 22 26 26
49ers 26 13 22 28 19 27
Rams 28 9 24 30 18 28
Broncos 20 30 28 21 31 29
Seahawks 30 24 29 29 30 30
Panthers 32 18 32 31 15 31
Cardinals 31 21 31 32 27 32

Strength of Schedule:

Team Schedule Strength
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Bills 3 5 1 3 2 1
Dolphins 6 12 8 2 9 2
Patriots 1 18 5 1 11 3
Bengals 9 2 2 7 3 4
Browns 7 3 3 8 4 5
Jets 25 8 15 14 1 6
Lions 2 16 6 4 12 7
Vikings 4 15 9 6 10 8
Ravens 24 6 12 16 5 9
Packers 5 23 13 5 17 10
Steelers 16 14 18 9 13 11
Redskins 14 7 7 15 7 12
Bears 11 22 20 10 15 13
Titans 27 1 4 23 6 14
Eagles 18 13 14 13 16 15
Texans 15 10 10 12 18 16
Cowboys 13 19 19 11 21 17
Colts 31 4 16 26 8 18
Jaguars 29 9 21 21 14 19
Giants 26 21 24 19 19 20
Panthers 10 11 11 18 20 21
Falcons 19 25 23 22 23 22
Broncos 12 20 17 17 26 23
Buccaneers 17 30 26 20 27 24
Saints 21 28 27 24 24 25
Raiders 28 17 22 27 22 26
Chargers 32 24 30 31 25 27
Chiefs 30 26 31 30 28 28
Cardinals 22 27 25 29 29 29
Seahawks 8 31 28 25 32 30
49ers 20 29 29 28 30 31
Rams 23 32 32 32 31 32

Consistency:

Team Consistency
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Panthers 7 7 12 1 2 1
Falcons 15 22 25 21 6 2
Lions 21 23 5 23 22 3
Buccaneers 4 25 10 3 26 4
Saints 3 13 1 6 10 5
Bengals 25 26 2 18 20 6
Ravens 22 6 3 19 14 7
Steelers 18 18 15 20 8 8
Cowboys 10 4 9 7 5 9
Colts 5 19 8 4 16 10
Redskins 11 16 4 9 17 11
Vikings 16 9 18 11 3 12
Eagles 14 2 6 16 12 13
Browns 6 14 7 17 32 14
Rams 8 8 17 10 1 15
Jets 23 30 20 25 29 16
Texans 9 11 11 8 13 17
Packers 27 15 14 29 18 18
Jaguars 20 5 16 22 9 19
Bills 26 1 21 30 4 20
Dolphins 24 27 26 26 19 21
Bears 29 31 22 32 28 22
Cardinals 1 12 19 2 25 23
Broncos 31 3 13 27 7 24
Patriots 12 17 23 12 23 25
Chargers 2 21 27 5 31 26
Seahawks 19 32 31 15 27 27
Giants 17 28 29 13 24 28
Chiefs 32 29 28 24 30 29
Titans 30 10 24 31 15 30
49ers 13 24 30 14 11 31
Raiders 28 20 32 28 21 32

Colts Week-by-Week Rankings

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 67 462 266 164 389 290
2 Giants 76 41 12 21 29 5
3 Broncos 164 313 226 275 379 372
4 Jaguars 34 501 295 82 490 325
5 Chiefs 131 141 73 139 131 74
6 Redskins 227 169 158 208 245 212
7 BYE
8 Texans 65 152 50 152 53 37
9 Eagles 240 419 368 201 349 305
10 Bengals 357 145 237 330 108 186
11 Patriots 72 508 348 60 414 199
12 Chargers 430 308 448 382 210 349
13 Cowboys 212 435 366 248 403 364
14 Titans 42 414 194 43 474 258
15 Jaguars 173 302 224 277 234 271
16 Raiders 282 85 113 216 115 102
17 Titans 156 291 203 166 397 299
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