Stampede Blue's The Winning Stats - 2011

For the last three years, Stampede Blue blogger and numbers wizard Matt Grecco (aka, mgrex03) has looked at an array of stats reaching across all aspects of the game. He found out which stats lead to the most wins (Drive Success Rate and Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt), and which ones lead to the least wins (Yards / Carry and Net Punting Average), based on statistics from 2001 - 2008. Matt has had lots of time to figure out which stats we wanted to look at, and he is now ready to fully explain his methodology so that Stampede Blue can use his "Winning Stats" system to track the progress of the Colts.

This stats system is unique to Stampede Blue. We are not parroting tables and theories here from excellent sites like Football Outsiders. This is our stats system developed internally by Matt Grecco.

As you begin to dig into the numbers, you will see how Matt's analysis is scary good at spotting the winning factors. The numbers cut through the hype and get to the bottom of who is good and who is smoke and mirrors.

Throughout the season, we'll be tracking the Colts stats in each category, as well as bringing you Power Rankings, Strength of Schedule (both past and future), and Consistency Rankings each week.

Last Updated: 3 January, 2012

Season Stats - Non-Adjusted:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 64.1% 29 Saints 74.1% 26 49ers 98-13 0.883
ANPY/A 4.649 28 Packers 7.226 29 Texans 124-19 0.867
Turnovers 1.81 23 49ers 1.06 30 49ers 111-27 0.804
Yds/Drive 25.64 27 Saints 33.16 26 Texans 83-20 0.806
ToP/Drive 2:20.6 29 Steelers 3:01.2 32 49ers 110-22 0.833
Yds/Play 4.825 29 Saints 5.589 22 Steelers 80-20 0.800
First Downs/Drive 1.44 28 Saints 1.92 26 Jets 77-28 0.733
3rd/4th Down 34.7% 23 Saints 45.5% 31 Jets 102-27 0.791
Avg Start Pos 23.6 32 49ers 30.3 28 Patriots 100-27 0.787
3 and Outs 5.00 30 Saints 3.00 25 Bengals 88-24 0.786
RZ Eff 57.1% 28 Lions 73.4% 31 Ravens 95-36 0.725
Plays/Drive 5.313 27 Saints 5.933 28 Jets 65-37 0.637
Penalty Yds / Play 0.577 1 Colts 0.757 27 Ravens 64-58 0.525
RB Success 39.6% 29 Saints 48.8% 27 49ers 54-69 0.439
Yds/Carry 4.17 18 Panthers 4.26 17 49ers 57-75 0.432
Net Punts Yds/Game 40.32 19 49ers 42.19 28 Cardinals 71-42 0.628
Overall 30 Saints 30 49ers

Season Stats - Adjusted:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 62.7% 28 Patriots 72.3% 26 Jets 98-13 0.883
ANPY/A 4.327 26 Packers 6.706 29 Jets 124-19 0.867
Turnovers 2.02 25 49ers 1.29 28 Packers 111-27 0.804
Yds/Drive 24.12 27 Saints 30.73 21 Jets 83-20 0.806
ToP/Drive 2:21.0 31 Chargers 2:60.0 31 Bears 110-22 0.833
Yds/Play 4.684 26 Saints 5.307 24 Ravens 80-20 0.800
First Downs/Drive 1.37 27 Saints 1.83 26 Jets 77-28 0.733
3rd/4th Down 35.4% 23 Saints 45.0% 30 Lions 102-27 0.791
Avg Start Pos 26.5 32 49ers 33.6 31 49ers 100-27 0.787
3 and Outs 5.10 29 Saints 3.33 24 Bengals 88-24 0.786
RZ Eff 54.6% 30 Lions 74.6% 30 Ravens 95-36 0.725
Plays/Drive 5.205 26 Saints 5.754 25 Jets 65-37 0.637
Penalty Yds / Play 0.548 1 Colts 0.736 28 Jets 64-58 0.525
RB Success 41.7% 28 Saints 48.0% 24 49ers 54-69 0.439
Yds/Carry 4.08 16 Panthers 4.06 17 Ravens 57-75 0.432
Net Punts Yds/Game 37.94 19 Saints 40.22 28 Bears 71-42 0.628
Overall 29 Saints 29 Jets

Power Rankings:

Team Power Rankings
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Saints 1 21 1 1 21 1
Steelers 5 10 2 5 14 2
Texans 9 4 3 10 5 3
Ravens 13 3 4 13 4 4
Packers 2 26 5 2 26 5
Lions 11 9 7 12 6 6
49ers 15 1 6 14 2 7
Eagles 10 11 9 8 12 8
Falcons 7 15 10 9 11 9
Patriots 3 28 8 3 30 10
Cowboys 8 20 11 6 20 11
Jets 24 2 13 25 1 12
Giants 12 19 15 11 18 13
Chargers 4 29 12 4 32 14
Bengals 21 6 14 20 9 15
Dolphins 20 12 16 22 8 16
Bears 26 5 17 27 3 17
Panthers 6 31 18 7 31 18
Seahawks 25 8 19 24 10 19
Redskins 19 17 21 21 16 20
Jaguars 31 7 22 32 7 21
Titans 17 18 20 18 22 22
Raiders 14 25 23 15 25 23
Bills 16 24 24 16 23 24
Cardinals 27 13 25 26 17 25
Vikings 18 27 28 19 24 26
Browns 22 23 26 17 27 27
Broncos 29 14 27 28 13 28
Chiefs 28 16 29 31 15 29
Rams 32 22 30 30 19 30
Buccaneers 23 32 31 23 28 31
Colts 30 30 32 29 29 32

Strength of Schedule:

Team Schedule Strength
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Rams 3 5 1 6 4 1
Buccaneers 19 1 2 19 1 2
Giants 13 3 3 13 3 3
Redskins 17 12 8 14 6 4
Seahawks 2 25 6 1 22 5
Eagles 8 21 14 3 19 6
Bears 32 2 7 32 2 7
Cowboys 9 23 15 4 18 8
Colts 12 9 4 18 12 9
Vikings 21 7 9 21 10 10
Cardinals 7 20 12 7 17 11
Bills 14 16 10 16 14 12
Dolphins 22 10 13 25 7 13
Browns 1 27 5 2 29 14
Panthers 20 13 16 17 15 15
Lions 29 4 18 28 5 16
Jets 24 11 17 24 11 17
Falcons 30 6 19 26 8 18
Jaguars 23 8 11 29 9 19
49ers 11 29 27 9 26 20
Packers 25 19 30 15 23 21
Raiders 18 18 23 22 20 22
Patriots 15 26 28 12 27 23
Chiefs 28 14 24 31 13 24
Ravens 6 28 20 11 28 25
Bengals 4 30 21 8 30 26
Titans 16 22 25 20 24 27
Broncos 26 15 22 30 16 28
Saints 31 17 31 23 21 29
Chargers 10 31 29 5 32 30
Steelers 5 32 26 10 31 31
Texans 27 24 32 27 25 32

Consistency:

Team Consistency
Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
Bengals 4 1 2 1 1 1
Broncos 5 16 7 4 2 2
Patriots 7 2 4 8 3 3
Jaguars 9 27 16 6 22 4
Packers 1 3 1 2 18 5
Browns 2 7 12 3 20 6
Dolphins 22 21 10 9 21 7
Rams 6 4 5 5 10 8
Raiders 27 9 3 25 27 9
Cardinals 8 15 6 7 17 10
Lions 24 25 14 13 12 11
Steelers 12 11 15 17 16 12
Panthers 16 10 17 21 4 13
Falcons 17 22 23 16 15 14
Giants 29 5 8 29 14 15
Vikings 23 23 21 20 19 16
Redskins 20 6 13 14 7 17
Jets 26 24 27 19 6 18
49ers 21 19 26 15 11 19
Bears 32 17 11 32 8 20
Chargers 13 29 28 18 24 21
Colts 14 13 9 22 25 22
Cowboys 10 8 30 12 13 23
Buccaneers 30 12 19 10 23 24
Chiefs 31 18 25 27 29 25
Seahawks 19 26 22 28 26 26
Saints 15 14 20 24 5 27
Texans 18 20 24 26 9 28
Titans 3 31 31 11 31 29
Eagles 11 30 18 23 32 30
Ravens 28 28 29 31 28 31
Bills 25 32 32 30 30 32

Colts Week-by-Week Rankings:

Colts Opponent Non-Adjusted Adjusted
Week Offense Defense Total Offense Defense Total
1 Texans 432 390 472 358 353 417
2 Browns 405 353 440 458 386 481
3 Steelers 419 291 423 407 142 315
4 Buccaneers 363 435 467 449 489 504
5 Chiefs 149 485 382 129 512 441
6 Bengals 343 352 393 288 412 403
7 Saints 462 512 512 477 511 512
8 Titans 434 245 404 463 286 452
9 Falcons 503 404 505 501 343 498
10 Jaguars 494 221 461 483 399 492
11 BYE
12 Panthers 376 413 460 465 332 462
13 Patriots 51 486 287 89 363 185
14 Ravens 463 429 492 437 428 482
15 Titans 399 91 238 426 97 279
16 Texans 288 89 140 184 49 54
17 Jaguars 326 235 299 252 425 383
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