Stampede Blue: FanPosts

Sounds like we got a defense now!

2013-05-22T22:12:03Z

Just watching the interviews with some of the guys after todays OTA session, and looking at what guys like George Bremer, Tom James and Mike Chappell are saying on twitter.

Sounds like the defense was real impressive (I know its just OTAs, not real football, but it is still encouraging).

By the sounds of it, Greg Toler (an acquisition that I am really excited about) was making plays left, right and center. If he can stay healthy, and they can extend Vontae's contract, which I believe runs out at the end of the season, that secondary could become real impressive.

I also noticed how complimentary C-Redd was of both Bjoern, Montori and Josh Chapman, who he described as awesome pretty much.

On a side note, notable absences were Reggie, who I don't think attended many voluntary workouts last year either, but he is a future HOF, so we can let him off. Don't know why Mathis wasn't there, I'm guessing a little injury or something. I do have a little pit of a pet peeve about new guys not attending though, and this was heightened today with the absence of Donald Thomas and Laron Landry. I think these guys will be great for us, and I'm pleased that Donald has attended most of the other sessions so far this year, but Landrys absence is bugging me, as I want him and Bethea to start building chemistry ASAP.

Just some observations from interviews and tweets etc. What do you guys think?

Just watching the interviews with some of the guys after todays OTA session, and looking at what guys like George Bremer, Tom James and Mike Chappell are saying on twitter.

Sounds like the defense was real impressive (I know its just OTAs, not real football, but it is still encouraging).

I also noticed how complimentary C-Redd was of both Bjoern, Montori and Josh Chapman, who he described as awesome pretty much.

Just some observations from interviews and tweets etc. What do you guys think?

Team Response

2013-05-22T06:24:02Z

I would think that the team would assign an intern or some low-level person to read the various blogs and then respond to things like do players have to have a signed contract to participate in OTAs - not something like Grigson is an idiot for trading Shipley - not to discussion questions but to factual questions - seems like the team would want fans to understand how things work

or maybe their is a better place to post questions - any suggestions?

Werner's contract

2013-05-21T23:07:40Z

Any news on Werner's contract? I read somewhere it was just a language issue - I seem to remember there was a similar problem with Lucks contract last year. Is there a good web site that is tracking unsigned draft picks for all of the teams? I am not sure how important the OTAs are but I would assume any rookie would want every minute of coaching and practice to show their teammates what they bring to the game?

Is this going to hurt Werner's chances of significant playing time?

My View on the AFC South RBs

2013-05-21T14:50:31Z

I starting doing the research on the starting AFC South Running backs: Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Maurice Jones-Drew and Vick Ballard and I wanted to compare their on field production. This article will point out a variety of statistics as I don't have the time to watch every snap. I know stats don't always tell the whole truth. But a reoccurring trend occurs, which may suggest the NFL community has been underrating one RB in the AFC South.

Before I look at stats though, let's see how Matt Miller ranked the RBs: At 54, Vick Ballard, with a grade of 69/100. Maurice Jones-Drew received a 83/100 grade, ranking 14. Chris Johnson was ranked at 12th best, and scored 83/100 too. And the winner here was Foster, ranking 9th overall and scored 85/100. So, yeah, that is what Miller thinks after looking at the tape.

So, without further ado, I will analyze the various stats and declare who I believe the RB in the AFC South I'd want on my team.

NFL.COM STATS

Arian Foster kills it here. A staggering 1,424 yards, 15 rush TDs, 4.1 yards rushing average, 2 receiving TDs and only 1 fumble per 130 touches (130.333 to be more precise). Chris Johnson too had big plays. 1,243 yards rush yards, 6TD- including a 94 yard TD home run, 4.5 rushing yards average and fumbled every 62.4 carries. Jones-Drew was largely inactive last year, but hey, durability is a major determinant in being a top player. To be a little fair towards him, i'll average out his 2011 and 2012 stats here: 1010 yrds/yr, 4.71/carry and an average of 6.5 total TDS/yr. Finally, Vick Ballard had 3 total TDs, 3.9 yards/carry and 814 rushing yards (8.9 yrds/reception too: the most of the AFC South RBs). All in all, it seems Foster or Johnson wins these statistics. Moving on..

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS

Foster too wins here, receiving a Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement score ("DYAR means a running back with more total value") of 105 (he ranked 20th/play), ranking 13th of the 42 players that had 100+ carries. Ballard had 10 DYAR value (he ranked 27th/play- fairly close to Foster's rank), ranking 27th/42 overall. CJ had a disappointing -30 grade, 33rd/42 overall (he ranked 32nd/play). Jones-Drew qualified for another group (the 20-99 rushing category), scoring a DYAR of 27. Of the three AFC South rushers that qualified in the 100+ carries category, Vick Ballard had the best Success Rate (representing consistency) at 48% (10% lower than McGahee, who was ranked #1 in this category). Foster's success rate was close to Ballard's at 47% and CJ disappointed again, as his 41% ranked 38/42 of those who qualified. Lastly, the Effective Yards, which is "DVOA into a yards per attempt figure.... players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate"). Foster had a monster 1461 EYards (approximately 40 more than his raw yards). Johnson had a dramatic dip between his raw yards and his EYards, having only 895 (351 under his raw yards). Ballard saw a slight dip, having 767 EYards. MJD too dipped from his raw yards, scoring 347 EYards. To compare their EYards more fairly (as Foster and CJ had much more carries than MJD and Ballard), Foster had 4.162 EYards/rush. MJD had 4.035 EYards/ rush. Ballard had 3.635 EYards/rush. CJ had 3.243 EYards/rush (Football Outsiders really contradict CJ's standard stats). Thus, I can tell you Football Outsider statistics rank Foster the best. Followed by MJD (before he got injured) and then Vick Ballard. Which leads us to CJ, whose advanced stats here painted a much different picture than his raw stats painted (Raw stats: 4.5 yards/carry. EYards: 3.243 only!). Moving on...

PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS

Let's first look at a (so to say) less important aspect of being a runningback: receiving ability. Ballard ranked first of the three AFC South RBs that qualified (MJD didn't qualify), as he scored .88 Yards per Route Run (YPRR), ranking #37/50 as he had 1.11 YPRR than the receiving RB master: D. Sproles. CJ had .65 YPRR (45th) and Foster had .6 YPRR (46th).Of course QB play has a role in the YPRR (Luck is the best QB in the AFC South), which could explain why Ballard's the top here (he topped yards/reception too).

Using the same site, Vick Ballard had an awesome 38.6 elusive rating. He ranked 43/172 (he was labeled 'undervalued) and did well when his oline simply couldn't block for him. CJ had an 18.9 ER and Foster had an ER of 17.9. So was there oline mainly responsible for their inflated yards? I'd say maybe.

Another article by PFF clearly indicates how overvalued (contract wise) the RBs in the AFC South were(besides Vick Ballard- thankfully) in 2012. According to PFF, CJ was overpaid $10mill (most out of ANY RB), Foster was overpaid $5.4mill and so too MJD. The fact CJ had the poor ER and the 5 fumbles led to this mediocre label. Foster claimed to be overpaid due to his poor pass block efficiency grade and due to the fact he only broke one tackle every 12.2 carries. An interesting take on Foster's play in 2012: "If you are paying a running back $8m he better be an elite runner or a complete back. Foster was neither in 2012."- he made the 2012/13 Pro Bowl (and is a three time Pro Bowler). This could suggest we as NFL fans overrate him. MJD had his injury, which made it difficult for him to live up to his $6.4mill cap hit. Overall, Vick Ballard wins it here: he was the only RB to be called undervalued and not overvalued, he had the best YPRR and had the best ER of the RBs in the South.

ADVANCED STATS.com

Now onto my favorite advanced stat site (As it's free totally free :D). In the grading process, an individual player’s WPA or EPA or Success rate is the sum of the WPA or EPA or Success rate of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty. The Runningback grades here suggest Vick Ballard had the best Win Probability Added (.55), ranking 12th/83 (ranked 18th/G). Foster had a .18 WPA, ranking 35th/83 (36th/G). Johnson ranked at a shocking 73 (68th/G) and MJD ranked at 78 (81/G). To define WPA, Advanced stats say it is "the measure of a play’s impact on the outcome of a game". Vick Ballard won the more games than the other RBs in the South for their team, according to this site (and it makes sense: just look at that spectacular receiving touchdown at Nashville). Expected Points Added and Success Rate painted this similar picture: Johnson and MJD were ineffective.

SUMMARY

Matt Miller and most NFL viewers believe the top 3 South RBs are Foster, MJD and Chris Johnson and given their resume' of 3 Pro Bowls each, it's easy to see why. However, Advanced Stats point out that there Ballard should be graded close to these players. Given his higher Elusive rating (by far) on PFF of the four RBs, it is most surprising that Miller thinks Ballard lacks 'lateral agility and speed'. I don't know, but I assume the lack of lateral speed and agility perhaps were more due to the offensive line's wrong doing. Does Ballard actually lack it? Or could he not use his agility and speed to get to the edges and in between tackles to satisfy Matt Miller because the defenders were on top of Ballard straight away. 25% of the Colts' runs were stopped behind the line of scrimmage. That is much more of the wrong doing the poor interior line play (Linkenbach, Reitz and Satele were not good in 2012) , letting players through quickly before Ballard can use his lateral agility and speed: PFF rated the Colts run blocking 31st, so I wonder if it really was just due to the fact Ballard was just too isolated. I believe Miller underrated Ballard as his oline was just woeful. Other things advanced stats indicate: Johnson seems to be severely overrated and was one of the worst RBs last year, yet, his cap hit was second most. Foster should not be considered elite, even though his raw stats are mind- bottling. If I were to pick a RB from the South, I’d still go with Foster as he scores heaps of TDs. However, he seems to be the product of a good oline. Next, I’d pick Ballard over MJD. Ballard has underrated speed for his stocky build, his ER by PFF is solid and he is much more fresher/younger than MJD. MJD is in the twilight of an amazing career and his injury plagued 2012 season demonstrates this. He is quite risky. Lastly (and God forbid), I’d want (not really though) Chris Johnson. If you look past his raw stats and research his advanced stats , they’re shocking. His runs of 80 yards, 83 yards and 94yards inflate his production on the year severely. He is too much of a hit/miss player/ too inconsistent to want on your team and the fact that he criticized his oline in the offseason speaks a lot about him.

Note: Advanced stats go much more into details than 'raw' stats...Statistics don't tell the full truth. However, they don't lie either and once you see a trend in the statistics (eg CJ is severely overrated), it has a lot of meaning.

Early 53-Man Roster Projection

2013-05-19T05:29:12Z

I've been reading Stampede Blue for a while now, but I thought it was about time I get in on the action!

For my first post, I thought it would be fun to do a 53-man roster projection and get everyones' feedback. Here it goes:

QB- Luck, Hasselback

RB- Ballard, Brown, Carter, Williams

FB- Moore
WR- Wayne, DHB, Hilton, Brazill, Whalen
TE- Allen, Fleener, Cunningham, Saunders
LT- Castanzo, Linkenbach
LG- Thomas, Reitz
C- Satale, Holmes
RG- Thornton, McGlynn
RT- Cherilus, Ijalana

DE- Redding, RJF, Moala, Nevis
NT- Chapman, Franklin, Hughes
OLB- Mathis, Werner, Walden, Sidbury
ILB- Freeman, Angerer, Conner, Sheppard
SS- Landry, Swanson (Boyett PUP)
FS- Bethea, Lefeged
CB- Davis, Toler, Butler, Vaughn, Price

K- Vinatieri
P- McAfee
LS- Overton

Thoughts?

I've been reading Stampede Blue for a while now, but I thought it was about time I get in on the action!

For my first post, I thought it would be fun to do a 53-man roster projection and get everyones' feedback. Here it goes:

QB- Luck, Hasselback

RB- Ballard, Brown, Carter, Williams

Thoughts?

POWER RANKING TOP CONTENDERS

2013-05-19T03:44:07Z

You may have already read dozens and dozens of power rankings already this offseason and although my rankings are bound to be wrong and will barely have any meaning, it is still a fun thing to do.

1. DENVER BRONCOS- This team is so stacked and they (somehow) got better in the offseason. Peyton Manning has Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, (and now) Wes Welker, Jacob Tamme. Highly praised Louis Vasquez joined an already solid oline too, which gives defenses even more stress. Yes, the loss of Dumervil hurts...but the leader of the defense has been Von Miller.

2. SAN FRANCISCO- These guys have perhaps the best front 7 in football I have ever seen (i'm 23, so I wasn't around for the terrific 80's 46 Bears defense or the Steel Curtain Steeler's D, which I have heard is quite outstanding). The O-line and the rest of the offense too is outstanding. DB's are a concern and I don't think Ashmoghua will make as much of a positive impact as they would like. Frank Gore is now 30- a deadly age for RBs. But with a promising young QB, good receivers, terrific oline and an exceptional front seven, I rank these guys #2.

3. GREEN BAY PACKERS- There are so many things I love about Aaron Rodgers' play. He is the king of QB's at the moment. The loss of the old Greg Jennings wont harm them at all. Eddie Lacy could be the RB they need. They hope the addition of Datone Jones shores up their run D which struggled last year and it could work. Even though the defense is only average, Rodgers elevates this team's play and makes them a serious threat.

4. ATLANTA FALCONS- This is Matt Ryan's year. He has the talent, he has the tools (Gonzalez, White, Jones) to do win it all.

5. BALTIMORE RAVENS- This team lost the core of their defense. But they have the best front office in football. They have an outstanding coach. They have a QB that knows how to win playoff games (what an outstanding playoff run in 2012). They still have do it all back Ray Rice. They won without their top CB in 2012. They added Elvis Dumervil. They had a strong draft. They shrewdly let Ellerbe and Kruger walk for big bucks- this team knows how to declare "NEXT MAN UP".

6. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS- They are not the lethal, scary team they once were. I don't think they get past the Divisional Round this year and the loss of Welker and the potential loss of Rob Gronkowski is serious. I don't like the receivers Tom Brady has to work with. But it is Tom Brady we're talking here. Bill Bellichick will still be the mastermind in NE, thus they are contenders.

7. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS- These guys are borderline elite. I'm not sold on them like most people are. Richard Sherman is a stud and Bobby Wagner has it all, but with Bruce Irvin and Chris Clemons missing for some time (whom of which combined for 20 sacks), the defense pass rush will struggle, especially in that important week 2 clash with San Francisco. Russell Wilson will have to utilize Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice and Marshawn Lynch to perfection and cannot afford to start off slowly, given their defensive setbacks this offseason. A good team- their road struggles too setback this team and I'm not as high on these guys as most experts are.

8. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS- I'm so impressed with Andrew Luck's rookie season. I questioned some Free Agent and Draft additions, but all the additions were upgrades (except Walden). The core of this team's skilled players was set up in last year's draft. This offseason saw the trenches improve immensely (on paper)- which was a necessity given last year's struggles. I'm looking forward to 2013.

9. HOUSTON TEXANS- Two reasons why I don't rate these guys higher: Reason 1) the offseason has been a setback for them- They don't have a receiving threat outside Andre Johnson (although the addition of De'Andre Hopkins may relieve coverage off him, he is still unproven and he is still a rookie). The addition of Ed Reed for Clover Quinn is a downgrade. He may be a big name, but he had serious issues in 2012 and his injuries have certainly caught up to him (this hip surgery incident astounds me). They've lost defensive depth this offseason too. Reason 2)Matt Schaub is not even close to elite. As simple as that. Texans do have positives to their team: J.J Watt is coming off one of the best defensive years I've seen in my time watching football. Brian Cushing is returning from injury. Jonathon Joseph is experienced and productive. Andre Johnson (even though he is getting old) still has it. Arian Foster is a TD scoring machine. All in all though, in this day in age though, NFL teams can only go as far as their QB will take them though.

10. CINCINNATI BENGALS- I was tempted to put these guys where Texans were but Houston have eliminated these guys out of the playoffs the past two years, so it is not right. But, these guys have built a serious team the past few years. This year's draft was great , and I project Tyler Eifert being a steal. I question their runningback situation though. I question Andy Dalton's poise in the playoffs (he's had two mediocre games against the Texans). But their defense is solid and A.J Green is terrific.

NOTABLE OMMISIONS- Pittsburgh Steelers- These guys can beat any opponent at any given day as they have Big Ben- the toughest QB in football. But they are in a stacked division at the moment. New York Giants- I really wanted to squeeze these guys in the top 10 but the NFC is just so competitive with 49ers, Packers and Falcons leading the way. I wouldn't be surprised if they make me eat my words and get to the Championship game. Saints are an outstanding offense, but there defense is just so bad. Rams are in a tough division and Sam Bradford hasn't proven to me his is the guy to take this team to a division title.

Here is my list. If you have any questions or arguments, go to the comments section

Laron Landry absence.

2013-05-15T21:50:42Z

Just a question to anyone who might know.

Anyone know why Laron Landry hasn't been at any of the workouts that I've seen pictures of?

Just a random question, but I'm curious.

Stupid word limit! B b b b b b v b b b h h h h g g h h h g g g h b b b h h h h h h dvhbg go c h CCTV g g x x x v b my d s I

Just a question to anyone who might know.

Anyone know why Laron Landry hasn't been at any of the workouts that I've seen pictures of?

Just a random question, but I'm curious.

Stupid word limit! B b b b b b v b b b h h h h g g h h h g g g h b b b h h h h h h dvhbg go c h CCTV g g x x x v b my d s I

The problem with having a defensive minded head coach

2013-05-15T18:00:15Z

As we witnessed this year with the leaving of Bruce Arians offensive coordinators are often targeted for head coaching jobs. When they go they take their offense with them, then the team hires a new coordinator and installs a new offense. I just read that Jay Cutler is getting his third coordinator and offense in as many years. Alex Smith and Jason Campbell also suffered similar fates early in their careers which stunted or doomed their growth as QB's so we may never truelly know how good they could have been. So even though Luck was great last year and the signing of Pep means he is just updating an offense he already knows I am not too worried about us this year. Big BUT here, Pep is going to be a target if he has success and the fact of his race and the Roony rule will make him an even bigger target. So the question is how long do we have Pep and do we have an assistant learning his offense to have a successor in place. We want to make sure that OC is not a revolving door in Indy as it has never been a good thing for a QB and team to be changing offenses every year.

Too Bad We Have a Punter

2013-05-15T15:26:24Z

I saw this on the SBNation Syracuse Blog "Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician" and figured I'd pass it off given all of the stuff we've been through as a franchise the past year with Chuckstrong and Coltstrong and the like. http://www.nunesmagician.com/syracuse-football/2013/5/15/4333116/the-rob-long-story-video-syracuse-football

I remember hearing about the whole Rob Long story as it unfolded a few years ago, and it's great to see that he's making a push for an NFL roster. I hope he finds one, and if things with McAfee somehow don't work out, as much as I'd hate to see him go, Long seems like the sort of high character guy who has the talent, and also wants this opportunity more than anything in the world.

Hopefully we keep Pat, but Long catches on somewhere else. It's incredibly competitive to land an NFL punting job, but this guy has already been through so much that I've got a feeling he can overcome these odds as well.

One Reason Andrew Luck got robbed for ROY

2013-05-15T00:36:44Z

Andrew Luck was dead set a machine in 2012. The NFL community look at his 'mainstream' QB stats: 23 TDs, 18 ints, 54.1 completion %, 76.5 QB rating and see a guy who's play was inferior to Robert Griffin III's play. Luck did make some poor decisions. However, imagine if Griffin were in the tougher scheme Luck was in and had the team Luck did: the O Line was poor (unlike the Redskin's one), the RB's were not nearly as productive as Redskins' (Morris had 1600+ yards). An issue that gets overlooked though is how poor our wideouts were at times.

My favorite PFF stat (and one that I do think is creditable, unlike some of the others) is drop rate. Statistics don't lie (they don't always tell the whole truth either). But in this instance, they reveal something very true: Luck (and the Colts) were let down at times by poor wide receiving play. Avery, imo, had some sloppy route running and I'm extremely happy that KC did us a favor and got rid of him for us. He may be fast and he may of had a solid yardage total (which fools people at times: if a wideout has a high volume of targets, of course he is going to have a good yardage total), but he had butter fingers and is totally unreliable. Another wideout who had his fair share of drops was TY. I'd give his play in 2012 the benefit of the doubt though: he came up with huge plays at times (including 2 stellar TDs against Houston- 1 in each game), he had a high yards/reception total and he was a rookie in 2012- his ceiling hasn't been reached yet imo. If he wants to take the next step though, he should start catching more of his 'catchable balls'.

Thus, due to the fact A. Luck (who should've got ROY) had his #2 and #3 receivers finish DEAD LAST in drop rate, it is pure ignorance to say he has accuracy problems (which is a commonality if you speak to a Redskin fan). Along with other reasons, the lack of help at wide receiver for the Colts is a reason why Luck got robbed in the ROY race. In 5/10 years time he mostly wont care or even think about it at all. But I believe in giving credit when it's due, and Luck's fantastic play would have looked more impressive if his receivers didn't have catching issues.

P.s: we should thank KC for taking Avery from us. That is one thing Colts fans must do...i'm looking forward to DHB

Im bored, Lets talk about RJF

2013-05-14T08:23:08Z

I know what you're thinking now: OH OHHH, NUTCASE FREDDIE IS ABOUT TO HAVE A RANT

This post comes after having a solid discussion with World's #2 Armchair GM, who brought up some savvy and fantastic points about RJF and made me open my eyes to the reports and articles about this guy.

DESCRIBING JEAN FRANCOIS' PLAY

Three words were reoccurring in articles about RJF: Solid, Underrated and Versatile. Bingo. He has only played 27% of snaps, but given he was stuck behind Ray MacDonald and Justin Smith on that all star DLine, you can sense there may be a hidden gem in that depth chart. San Francisco had some sort of interest to resign RJF, which is a sign of a player with starting talent. Contrary, someone like Walden did not want to be resigned by the Packers, which I've been displeased about as barely any Packer fans wanted back. Not only was there interest by his old team, but elsewhere there was teams organizing meetings with him, so GMs saw this talent.

THE CONTRACT Philly was a struggle to beat out, which gave us a hefty 4 year/22mill$ figure by the Colts. Was it dumb by Colts? Looking at comment's from San Francisco supporters, they seem to continuously see it as massively overpaid. But, given the back loading nature of the contract, it was amongst the smartest of free agent moves by the Colts. San Fran fans could be called ignorant for that statement. His first, perhaps even second year will give Grigson as grasp of RJF: Were you not starting in San Fran because you had all stars in front of you and can you put what you've learnt onto the field? or Simply, are you a back up because you are just a guy with no more than depth potential?. If it is the latter, serious consideration will have to be put into cutting him, to avoid the heavy part of the contract. If it is the former, then boy, what a move.

Of all the signings by Grigson, this is the one that could turn out to be the diamond. We are all expecting big things from Landry and Cherilus. But I'm expecting things just as big from this guy. My perception of him is that he is a guy with starting potential, a guy who has received coaching from great NFL minds and is a starting potential player who only had limited starts to due to high quality of positional competition from his former teams. This perception comes from the fact San Fran wanted him back and that most sportswriter's that reviewed his play had lots of complements for him.

By no means is the back loaded contract unfriendly (after further review) for a guy who's 26 and entering his prime, which is why it COULD turn out to be a huge signing

Assessing (and ranking!) the post-draft state of each team, part 1

2013-05-13T21:40:11Z

I've been wanting to write this for a good long while, but I've spent the past two weeks barricaded in my (metaphorical) office trying to grind out a thesis. I'm happy to report that as of Saturday, my thesis has been accepted, and I'm now done with grad school.

So, from now on that's MASTER jbacon55 to you, peasants. (it's funny because my degree is worthless and will probably prove to have been a colossal waste of time.) EDIT: I worry from some of the comments that people think I was bragging. I way wasnt; I just wanted to excuse my length absence.

Self-depricating condescension aside, I want to take a few minutes to assess each team's likelihood of success for the coming season. The easy way out is to simply say that these are power rankings, but I hate that term in the offseason for one major reason: it implies predictions. Ranking teams before they take the field should be based on the same general idea as evaluating free agent signings or rating draft prospects--the rankings should be based on probability rather than prediction. It's ridiculous to make predictions about which teams will succeed and which will be the Jacksonville Jaguars before the season even starts. Instead, the prudent ranker will order teams by how likely they are to succeed--a much more manageable and appropriate task.

With that in mind, ranking teams on any relatively subjective measure even before training camp begins is just dumb, so I'll be really disappointed in anyone who reads any more of this post.

For those of you silly enough to stick around, let's get started with part 1 (#1-16). I've been ranking since the start of free agency, so in parentheses I'll include the team's pre-draft rank.

1. Seattle Seahawks (1)

What they have: one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league, a terrifying defense, an electric playmaker at WR, a stacked offensive line, and one of the best running backs in the game.

What they don't have: super powers, ostensibly.

X factor: Russell Wilson, QB.

Analysis: This is arguably the most complete team in the NFL. For this analysis section, you could pretty much copy and paste the "What they have" section. They were already one of the best teams (Atlanta had no business winning that divisional playoff game), and they only got better throughout the off season. Their defensive line looks fierce, and the addition of Antoine Winfield to an already-stacked secondary seems almost unfair. Wilson is the X factor only because he plays the most important position, so the team will perform at whatever level Wilson can take them to. I don't expect him to regress much because of his tireless work ethic, so expect the Seahawks to soar (I swear I did not mean to make a pun here).

2. San Francisco 49ers (2)

What they don't have: A true superstar defensive back?

X factor: Justin Smith, DE/DT

Analysis: There isn't much else to say about the Niners that hasn't been said about the Seahawks (as evidenced by the copy-pasted strengths section). I'm going with Justin Smith as the X factor because he's the real leader of their fearsome pass rush, and with their starting NT and back up DE/DT departing, there will be added pressure on him to perform at a high level. If he can't get pressure on the quarterback, I don't think their defense will be what it was in 2012.

3. Denver Broncos (3)

What they have: A first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, a defense that would be number 1 in any other era, and the absolute best receiving trio in the league (and maybe even in recent memory).

What they don't have: A reliable running back

X factor: Champ Bailey, CB

Analysis: This team's passing attack is down right scary. The combination of Eric Decker and Demariyus Thomas was already one of the most lethal in the league, but some how John Elway managed to sign Wes Welker making it the unquestioned lord of all receiving corps. The only thing this team lacks is a reliable running back. If Willis McGahee stays healthy that's settled, but he won't. Montee Ball, on the other hand, isn't likely to enjoy much success. He's already got tons of miles on his body. I've chosen Champ Bailey instead of Peyton Manning as the X factor because of his central role in their passing defense. Bailey is still left on an island with opposing receivers and still, despite his age, shuts them down. If he's unable to do that this year, they'll have to significantly alter their secondary game plan.

4. Green Bay Packers (5)

What they have: The best QB in football, a defense on the rise, and now two of the safest rookie RBs to come out of the 2013 draft

What they don't have: A corner to pair with Casey Hayward, a suitable back up for the potentially injury-prone BJ Raji.

X factor: Eddie Lacy, RB

Analysis: What can be said about the Packers that isn't already common knowledge? They have a high-octane aerial attack and a decent pass rush. The pass rush got much better with the addition of Datone Jones, and for the first time in years they should have a solid run game. If Eddie Lacy pans out, one of two things should happen. Either 1) he forces defenses to shut him down opening up far more passing opportunities, or 2) he puts up monster numbers.

5. Atlanta Falcons (4)

What they have: One of the better starting quarterbacks, a dynamic receiving corps, and a shiny new running back.

What they don't have: they lost some of their pass-rushing prowess and don't have much veteran leadership in the secondary.

X factor: Steven Jackson, RB

Analysis: The Falcons are to this decade what the Cowboys were to the 70s: "next year's champions." They consistently underperform, and I'm hesitant to put them this high. Falcons fans have reason to be optimistic this year, though. Matt Ryan presumably got the monkey off his back by winning his first playoff game last season, and the addition of Steven Jackson should constitute a massive upgrade over Michael Turner. If Steven Jackson pans out, he'll take a fair amount of pressure off Matt Ryan. Atlanta's aerial attack should also let Jackson enjoy more success than he's used to.

6. Houston Texans (6)

What they have: One of the best running games in the league, one of the best receivers in the league, an insane defense, and an efficient, relatively mistake-free quarterback

What they don't have: A proven receiving corps behind Andre Johnson.

X factor: DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Analysis: The Texans have been on the verge of greatness for the past couple of seasons. With a maturing defense and the addition of some more offensive weapons, this might be their year. Arian Foster is obviously great, and Matt Schaub is not someone who will lose you many games. The Texans' big problem over the past two years has been their lack of a reliable #2 receiver. DeAndre Hopkins inspired a lot of hot or cold responses from draftniks and fans alike, but if he can perform how some expect him to, the Texans' aerial attack could become elite. I fully expect this to happen, too. In the weeks leading up to the draft, I became more and more high on Hopkins--so much so that by the time draft night rolled around, my nose had gone so far up his rear that he spent the evening perched comfortably atop my shoulders. (If you thought that was crass, you should have read my original joke.)

7. Chicago Bears (8)

What they have: An outstanding quarterback, an All-Pro receiver, a great run game, and one of the league's best defenses

What they don't have: A reliable receiving corps behind Brandon Marshall and an offensive line

X factor: Jermon Bushrod, OT

Analysis: The Bears broke every Chicagoan's heart last season, starting 7-1 and then failing to make the playoffs. There were two major reasons for this: an offensive line that might have been more porous than the Colts' and a complete lack of any receiving weapons outside of Brandon Marshall. The Bears went all-out on their offensive line this off season, so if everyone pans out Jay Cutler might stand a chance of not being totally destroyed this year. I've picked Jermon Bushrod as the X factor because he will be Cutler's blind-side protector, but any offensive lineman could be put here.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (10)

What they have: A solid aerial attack, a great offensive line, a running back with high upside, and a solid defense

What they don't have: A game-changing quarterback

X factor: Giovanni Bernard, RB

Analysis: Over the past two-ish seasons, the Bengals have been the definition of average. They obliterate the bottom half of the league and tend to fair rather poorly against the top half of the league. However, there is no denying they are a team on the rise. Andy Dalton isn't an ultra-elite quarterback by any stretch of the imagination, but I'd take him over a lot of other QBs in the league. The combination of Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert should help him along, as will the drafting of Bernard. Much like Eddie Lacy and the Packers, if Bernard pans out it will really open things up for Dalton and AJ Green.

9. New Orleans Saints (11)

What they have: A top-flight QB, a stud receiver, a stacked backfield, and a coach with a chip on his shoulder

What they don't have: A defense (mostly)

X factor: Rob Ryan, DC

Analysis: No one should doubt the Saints' offensive prowess. Drew Brees is a sure-fire Hall of Famer, Marques Colston is tremendous, and their offensive line is on the rise. The Saints' Achilles Heel, however, has always been the defense. That is poised to change this season. The addition of Kenny Vaccaro (safety), John Jenkins (DT/NT), and Chase Thomas (OLB) should inject the team with some much-needed talent. If Rob Ryan can get the most out of those additions, the Saints should be a contender.

10. New York Giants (9)

What they have: A great-if-inconsistent QB, playmakers at receiver, a young RB with upside, and a defense on the rise

What they don't have: A capable receiving TE and depth in the secondary

X factor: Hakeem Nicks, WR

Analysis: The Giants are one of the best teams in December and January, and they should continue that this season. However, it seems they probably got a little bit worse over the course of the off season. They failed to adequately replace the departed Osi Umenyiora or Martellus Bennett. Damontre Moore might be able to help the pass rush, though scouts apparently are really concerned about his maturity level, but the didn't really add anyone capable of covering for the lost receiving capability of Bennett. For that reason, the success of the Giants seems to hinge on Hakeem Nicks--specifically whether he can stay healthy. Since entering the league he's never played a full season, but if he can stay healthy this year that might help make up for the hole at receiving TE.

11. New England Patriots (7)

What they have: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick

What they don't have: A reliable secondary and receiving talent

X factor: Aqib Talib, CB

Analysis: As long as the Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at the helm, they should be considered contenders. They are ranked this highly for that reason alone. Aside from those two guys, there really isn't much to speak of on this team. Sure they have a decent pass rush and a stable of RBs that has shown a lot of potential, but it's looking like the Patriots are due for some struggles. The loss of Wes Welker cannot be overstated, as he was the team's only reliable receiver. With all that said, I'm not too worried about the Pats having the offensive firepower to win the AFC simply because Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are *that* good. This team's success will be determined by the play of their secondary, so their X factor is the best player on that secondary. if Aqib Talib can play to his potential, the Pats just might have a decent defense. If that happens, watch out.

12. Minnesota Vikings (13)

What they have: The best run game in the league, a TE who is lethal in the red zone, a top-flight pass rusher, and three of the most promising rookies from the 2013 class.

What they don't have: A reliable QB and a proven secondary

X factor: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR

Analysis: If not for the Chiefs, the Vikings just might have been the most under-achieving team in 2012. Many will point to the loss of Percy Harvin as a harbinger of disaster for the Vikings, but it should not be forgotten that they were essentially without him for most of the 2012 season and still made the playoffs. If Cordarrelle Patterson can live up to his hype and Christian Ponder can take a step forward, this team could be tremendous. If either of the team's two defensive first round selections pan out, this team could easily make a short run in the playoffs.

13. Baltimore Ravens (15)

What they have: A great RB, a deep-threat WR, a solid TE, and defense with a lot of upside.

What they don't have: A legitimate #2 or #3 receiver

X factor: Torrey Smith, WR

Analysis: The reigning Super Bowl champions are getting a lot of respect in the wake of free agency and the draft. As always, Ozzie Newsome made a series of shrewd moves in free agency and the draft and has left Baltimore fans with lodes of optimism. The problem for the Ravens (and the reason I'm not ready to put them in my top 10) is that right now a lot of that optimism is based on unproven potential. If the Ravens' top draft choices pan out, this defense could be even better than it was prior (which is hard to imagine). While the defense is soaked in upside, the X factor here is Torrey Smith. With the loss of Anquan Boldin, Smith will be the unquestioned top receiver. If he can rise to the occasion the Ravens should compete for the AFC title again.

14. St. Louis Rams (19)

What they have: An improved offensive line, a maturing QB, and a receiving corps dripping with upside.

What they don't have: A running back capable of taking pressure off Sam Bradford

X factor: Jake Long, OT

Analysis: I'm going to be honest: I really don't think the Rams belong this high on the list, but something in my gut is telling me that this is a team to watch in 2013. They turned in some surprising performances in 2012, and they only got better this off season: there were two major limiting factors for the Rams in 2012, and the front office addressed both. The signing of Jake Long and the drafting of Barrett Jones should solidify the offensive line and give Sam Bradford a fighting chance. Long is my X factor here simply because he is Bradford's new blindside protector. If he can return to his previous form, Bradford will have plenty of time to get the ball to his shiny new receivers. If not, expect him to go down with a case of David Carr syndrome. It's worth noting that the other big question mark is Tavon Austin. He has the tools to be the next Percy Harvin, so it will be interesting to see if he capitalizes. I'm also convinced Stedman Bailey will be an elite receiver in a few years time.

15. Indianapolis Colts (18)

What they have: The best young QB in the league, veteran leaders at two of the most important positions (Mathis and Wayne), an outstanding TE, and a maturing run game

What they don't have: Proven talent anywhere else.

X factor: Everyone not named Luck, Wayne, Mathis, or Allen.

Analysis: If I were to describe the Colts in one word, it would be "upside." This team is stacked with unproven potential that could just as easily make a Super Bowl run as it could go 7-9 and miss the playoffs. There are questions all over the roster. Which Gosder Cherilus will we get? Will RJF be worth his contract? Will Bjoern Werner pan out? Can LaRon Landry stay healthy? Will DHB finally play to his potential? Will TY learn how to catch? Will Coby Fleener live up to his hype? Can one of our three centers actually play center? Was Freeman's 2012 campaign a fluke? Can Greg Toler stay healthy? Will Vontae Davis continue to improve? And those are just the first ones that come to mind. If I had to pick one player, though, I'd probably say Josh Chapman. If he delivers on his hype, our defense will be greatly improved, and maybe, just maybe, we won't have to win close games in the 4th quarter.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers (14)

What they have: A solid-when-healthy QB, a decent receiving corps, and a solid defense

What they don't have: proven talent at pass rush, depth at corner and receiver, and a solid running back

X factor: Jarvis Jones, OLB

Analysis: The Steelers missed the playoffs last year, so they will have a chip on their shoulder. Unfortunately, they simply didn't get much better in the off season. Markus Wheaton and Le'Veon Bell could pan out and fill big holes, but even then I think their success will be determined by Jarvis Jones and the injury-plagued Troy Polamalu. I've gone with Jarvis Jones as the X factor because the loss of James Harrison cannot be overstated. He made the entire defense better, and his pass rushing could take some pressure off the secondary. Jarvis Jones is a boom-or-bust player. He had tremendous success in the best conference in college football, but there are major questions about his work ethic and his game speed. There have also been questions raised about the nature of his sack numbers--a few draftniks have suggested that he benefited from a lot of unblocked or coverage sacks. If he lives up to his pre-draft hype, the Steelers should pick up where they left off last season. If not, expect a continued decline.

So there's the first half of this analysis. If you guys want, I can have part 2 posted later this week. What are your thoughts?

With that in mind, ranking teams on any relatively subjective measure even before training camp begins is just dumb, so I'll be really disappointed in anyone who reads any more of this post.

For those of you silly enough to stick around, let's get started with part 1 (#1-16). I've been ranking since the start of free agency, so in parentheses I'll include the team's pre-draft rank.

1. Seattle Seahawks (1)

What they don't have: super powers, ostensibly.

X factor: Russell Wilson, QB.

2. San Francisco 49ers (2)

What they don't have: A true superstar defensive back?

X factor: Justin Smith, DE/DT

3. Denver Broncos (3)

What they have: A first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, a defense that would be number 1 in any other era, and the absolute best receiving trio in the league (and maybe even in recent memory).

What they don't have: A reliable running back

X factor: Champ Bailey, CB

4. Green Bay Packers (5)

What they have: The best QB in football, a defense on the rise, and now two of the safest rookie RBs to come out of the 2013 draft

What they don't have: A corner to pair with Casey Hayward, a suitable back up for the potentially injury-prone BJ Raji.

X factor: Eddie Lacy, RB

5. Atlanta Falcons (4)

What they have: One of the better starting quarterbacks, a dynamic receiving corps, and a shiny new running back.

What they don't have: they lost some of their pass-rushing prowess and don't have much veteran leadership in the secondary.

X factor: Steven Jackson, RB

6. Houston Texans (6)

What they have: One of the best running games in the league, one of the best receivers in the league, an insane defense, and an efficient, relatively mistake-free quarterback

What they don't have: A proven receiving corps behind Andre Johnson.

X factor: DeAndre Hopkins, WR

7. Chicago Bears (8)

What they have: An outstanding quarterback, an All-Pro receiver, a great run game, and one of the league's best defenses

What they don't have: A reliable receiving corps behind Brandon Marshall and an offensive line

X factor: Jermon Bushrod, OT

8. Cincinnati Bengals (10)

What they have: A solid aerial attack, a great offensive line, a running back with high upside, and a solid defense

What they don't have: A game-changing quarterback

X factor: Giovanni Bernard, RB

9. New Orleans Saints (11)

What they have: A top-flight QB, a stud receiver, a stacked backfield, and a coach with a chip on his shoulder

What they don't have: A defense (mostly)

X factor: Rob Ryan, DC

10. New York Giants (9)

What they have: A great-if-inconsistent QB, playmakers at receiver, a young RB with upside, and a defense on the rise

What they don't have: A capable receiving TE and depth in the secondary

X factor: Hakeem Nicks, WR

11. New England Patriots (7)

What they have: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick

What they don't have: A reliable secondary and receiving talent

X factor: Aqib Talib, CB

12. Minnesota Vikings (13)

What they have: The best run game in the league, a TE who is lethal in the red zone, a top-flight pass rusher, and three of the most promising rookies from the 2013 class.

What they don't have: A reliable QB and a proven secondary

X factor: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR

13. Baltimore Ravens (15)

What they have: A great RB, a deep-threat WR, a solid TE, and defense with a lot of upside.

What they don't have: A legitimate #2 or #3 receiver

X factor: Torrey Smith, WR

14. St. Louis Rams (19)

What they have: An improved offensive line, a maturing QB, and a receiving corps dripping with upside.

What they don't have: A running back capable of taking pressure off Sam Bradford

X factor: Jake Long, OT

15. Indianapolis Colts (18)

What they have: The best young QB in the league, veteran leaders at two of the most important positions (Mathis and Wayne), an outstanding TE, and a maturing run game

What they don't have: Proven talent anywhere else.

X factor: Everyone not named Luck, Wayne, Mathis, or Allen.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers (14)

What they have: A solid-when-healthy QB, a decent receiving corps, and a solid defense

What they don't have: proven talent at pass rush, depth at corner and receiver, and a solid running back

X factor: Jarvis Jones, OLB

So there's the first half of this analysis. If you guys want, I can have part 2 posted later this week. What are your thoughts?

Poll

Did you continue to read despite my warnings?

Deywalka and "The Beef Has Arrived Edition."

2013-05-13T20:07:57Z

Last year when New HC Chuck Pagano gave his first meet and greet with the media, he started a campaign letting the fan faithful know that he and his staff were going to "build the monster." when you look at this team now vs two years ago I think you will hardly recognize it, especially when you look at the defense. Gone are the days of 260lb DTs. In two years the front office has added 6 DTs, all of them over 300lbs. Gone are the zone CBs needed to play the infamous "Coyer cushion." Now we have CBs who excel at man cvg. The next phase of this transformation I believe will take place at the LB position. Pat Angerer will be another Polian purge in favor of a bigger, more physical LB in order to make this defense resemble more of what coach Pags had in Baltimore. Even though Angerer has been a tackling machine, his injury history suggests that he isn't big enough to take the kind of pounding needed in order to play the physical style of defense this new hybrid 3/4 demands. But this article isn't going to be about the changes that haven't been made yet. It's about the changes that have been.

The Colts have been an enigma when it comes to stopping the run for a better part of the last 14 years. Or let's just say for the entire time Manning has been here. Because of how great Peyton was under center, the front office felt that addressing the defensive side of the ball was a luxury we could do without for the most part. Well that all blew up in their face when Manning was out for the 2011-12 season with a neck injury. The Colts went from a regular 12 to 13 win team to a dismal 2-14. Thank God the new regime believes in the old saying "defense wins championships." The thing I love about coach Pagano is that he's old school when it comes to football. He is by no means a copycat like so many other teams who try and mimic whatever teams find themselves as the "flavor of the month." Pagano still believes in running the ball and stopping the run. Hence the new faces on the defensive front: Chapman, Francois, Hughes, Redding, and Mckinney. We have some monsters up front now as these guys only fit the name "tiny" when you reference the hulking goon on the gangster's squad at the Cotton Club. Of the bunch I really like Chapman the best at NT. The guy is an absolute brute at the nose who constantly makes who ever is trying to block him move backwards. Now that he's healthy, he is going to be a nightmare in the middle for opposing teams looking to run the ball. Hughes has raw ability and scouts have said he may be the steal of the draft. With all of the new additions up front along with the coaching philosophy in place to guide them, I believe this year's Colts defense will be top 7 in the league at the very least. All of this spells for an exciting season to look forward to in Indy land. Yes ladies and gentlemen. The beef has arrived.

Hard Knocks anyone?

2013-05-13T19:26:37Z

I know this subject comes around every year about who the team that HBO covers in Hard Knocks. I'm going to officially put in my vote for the Colts to be that team this year. I have been a lifelong Colts fan and I consider myself pretty loyal to the franchise, but each year when I am watching Hard Knocks, I find myself wishing it was the Colts. I know it brings a lot of media coverage (positive/negative) to a team, but why not the Colts?

There are a lot of good stories that could be gleamed from the Colts being on the show. Coach recovers from cancer to coach again. Eccentric owner and his crazy twitter habit. WR from Oakland tries to recover his career. QB of the utmost pedigree tries to duplicate his rookie campaign with less INTs. New offensive line to cover the aforementioned QB. I'm sure there are more, but this will suffice.

We like to think that we know the ins and outs of the Colts, but in all reality we as fans do not have any insight in what happens behind closed doors. We see their training camp, OTAs, and other things we get from Stampede Blue and any other website that we read about the Colts, but we don't know how the franchise works from the inside. I think, and I might be the minority on this subject, the Colts would make a fantastic candidate to be on this season's Hard Knocks.

Thoughts?

Nigel Malone Waived!!!

2013-05-13T02:13:45Z

A slow Day for News.

The Indianapolis Colts today signed cornerback Allen Chapman and waived cornerback Nigel Malone.

Chapman, 5-11, 176 pounds, joins the Colts after spending the past three days as a tryout player in the team’s rookie mini-camp. He spent two seasons at Kansas State where he totaled 107 career tackles, six interceptions, two interception returns for touchdowns and 15 passes defensed. As a senior, Chapman logged career highs with 57 tackles, five interceptions and 10 passes defensed. Prior to joining the Wildcats, he competed at City College of San Francisco where he collected 39 tackles, 10 interceptions, two interception returns for touchdowns, two fumble recoveries and 1.0 sack. In 2010, Chapman was part of a City College team that finished with a 12-1 record with a win in the NorCal Championship game.

Malone, 5-10, 180 pounds, was originally signed by the Colts as an undrafted free agent on May 2, 2013.

A slow Day for News.

The Indianapolis Colts today signed cornerback Allen Chapman and waived cornerback Nigel Malone.

Malone, 5-10, 180 pounds, was originally signed by the Colts as an undrafted free agent on May 2, 2013.