It's now been a few days since the Colts 17-16 loss to the Jets, and we've all been able to take a step back, look at the game objectively rather than emotionally.  We've gone back and forth about who's to blame for the loss, with pretty much everyone including the waterboy getting some blame for the loss.  I think it is short-sighted to single out an individual, or even a single "unit" of the team as the culprit, although I do have to say that the offense is significantly behind the other two areas of the team when it comes to blame.

Saturday night's game played out a lot like the AFC Championship game last year did.  It took until about the middle of the second quarter for Peyton Manning and the Offense to figure out what the Jets were doing, then they scored on pretty much every possession for the rest of the game.  Here's the two differences:  The Colts scored 2 TDs and a FG in the second half last year, but had to settle for 3 FGs this year, and the Colts had 5 second half possessions last year, and only 3 this year.

Now, I think it is reasonable to expect a Colts offense that was so good all year scoring TDs, even with the injuries, that they could have put it in the end zone once in the second half, which is why they aren't completely blameless.  But think about this:  The average Time of Possession for a drive in the NFL is 2:40.  The Jets average 2:42 per drive.  If the defense had given up just an average length drive, or even a 4 minute drive, it gives the Colts that extra possession they would have needed to win the game.  While obviously there was a good chance they wouldn't have scored on this mythical drive, but in the last drives of first halfs and the entire second halfs, the Colts scored on 8 of their 9 possessions that they tried to score on.  I feel pretty good that they would have gotten at least 3 points.

Prepare to be depressed some more when you read these:

• Elias: Saturday night was only the second time in NFL Postseason history that there were two lead changes in the final minute.  The only other time?  The Tennessee Titans have a blog on this network named after it.  That means that every other lead-changing FG made in the final minute in Postseason history was a game winner.  Sigh...
• Elias: For the second consecutive year, the Jets won a road playoff game after being shut out in the first half.  Last year, they trailed 7-0 to the Chargers before winning 17-14.  To get the last time this happened by another team, you have to go back to 1993, when the Chiefs won at Houston after being blanked in the first half.
• Elias: I mentioned that 17 play, 87 yard, 9:54 minute drive above.  Want to know how bad it was?
  

  Since the Jets franchise was born in 1960 (the team was known as the Titans for its first three seasons), there has been only one other touchdown drive in an NFL postseason game that was as long as the Jets' on Saturday night, with respect to yards, plays and time consumed; in the 2007 playoffs, the Cowboys reached paydirt after a 20-play, 90-yard drive that took 10 minutes, 28 seconds.

  
  On Sunday, the Ravens also had a 15 play, 80 yard drive that took over 10 minutes, but that was when the game was virtually over.  Can I sigh again?
• Elias:  This was the fourth year in a row that the Colts have lost in the playoffs after leading in the 4th quarter. There's not much else I can say to that.

I tried to find something good, but there wasn't much in terms of the history books.  After the jump we'll get to the stats, where you'll see how the offense played fairly well, and the defense not so much...

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As I stated last night in my quick recap, last night's playoff loss to the New York Jets was a microcosm of the entire 2010 regular season. It had a little bit of everything:

• Bad run defense
• Questionable decision-making late in the game by Colts coach Jim Caldwell
• Pat McAfee playing poorly, especially on kickoffs
• Ineffective running, except for Joseph Addai
  

From the first series the Colts defense took the field, one had to know this was a game Indy would lose. I don't say this simply to be negative, though I'm sure a few folks will mindlessly complain my negativity stems from my 'hatred' of the team, or some such nonsense.

No, instead of shooting the messenger, as Colts fans have done all season long when someone like me points a spotlight at obvious weaknesses and disturbing trends, follow along with me as we recap the game that so completely defined what it felt like to watch the Colts in 2010.

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Yeah, it's almost fitting the season ended this way. In a sense, the game itself was a microcosm of the entire season, giving one a sense of (as Yogi Berra famously stated) 'deja vu all over again.'

In game where the Colts offense gutted it out for every yard, where Peyton Manning and Adam Vinatieri did all they could to get the lead in the fourth quarter on a 50-yard FG to go up 16-14 with less than one minute left, it only took the much overpaid, much over-valued, quite unreliable Colts defense and special teams 53 seconds to allow Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez to lead New York into FG range, and for Nick Folk to bang through a gimme 32-yarder as time expired.

Ball game. Jets win.

So much effort. So much fight. All of it undone. One-and-done, again.

Seriously folks, one-and-done again? Why even get there in the first place? Why fight so hard, win four in a row, and then when it counts the most, when for three weeks in a row the defense had surrendered an average of 66 rushing yards a game, they give up 169 yards to the Jets?

Obviously, injuries will be blamed. But, last I checked, the two guys starting a DT tonight were the guys who started Week One. The linebackers were the same dudes who had been bringing it for four weeks. It wasn't injuries that lost the game. It was a lack of execution, a lack of heart, a lack of pride.

As always, loses are frustrating. There is no moral victory. A one point loss is the same as a 30 point loss, and going one-and-done in the post-season is a meaningless post-season. Such is the reality.

Hats off to the Jets for winning. They deserved it. We now enter an off-season of uncertainty, but one thing is certain for more: Bill Polian better invest in some truly valuable offensive and defensive linemen. Just as we were beaten in 2007 and 2008 in the post-season, a more physical beat us tonight. And I'm sick and tired of seeing that just about every damn year in the playoffs.

Go Colts.

Ah, back in my comfort zone, using stats and numbers to make my arguments.  I'm not used to writing recaps without the help of numbers, but wrote one yesterday.  I talked a lot about the hectic finish to the game, where it looked like a Colts game-winning drive, then looked like a sure Titans win, and ended on the foot of Adam Vinatieri.  I held off on the actual numbers, but you get to see them now!

Advanced NFL Stats has a Win Probability function, which bases on historic data, and spits out a win probability after every play.  Want to see how it looked?  The play before Dominic Rhodes fumbled, the Colts WP was 49%.  After Rhodes' fumble -> 19%, a drop of 30% in just one play.  Yikes.  Before Kerry Collins fumbled, the WP was 25%, and after was 68%, a jump of 43%.  That's how big of a play that was.

Some notes from the game:

• Elias:  Adam Vinatieri kicked three Field Goals on Sunday all over 40 yards, which is the first time he's kicked 3 over 40 yards in a game in his career.  It's also the 10th time he's kicked a game-winning FG in the final 5 seconds of the 4th quarter.  I said it yesterday, I had no worries about it splitting the uprights.
• CBS: The Colts have now won 10 games in 9 consecutive seasons, which is second all-time to the 49ers 16 straight seasons.  There are 11 franchises that don't have that many 10 win seasons in their entire history.
• Colts.com: The Colts have also made the playoffs for a 9th straight year, tying the NFL record held by the Cowboys from 1975-83.  The Cowboys had 2 different QBs (Roger Stauback, Danny White), so Peyton Manning is the only QB to have done this.
• Colts.com: Speaking of #18, he now holds the record for most consecutive starts to begin a career at 208, passing Gene Upshaw.
• Colts.com: Manning also broke his own franchise record for most passing yards in a season (4700), and set an NFL record for most completions in a season with 450, beating out Drew Brees who had 448 this season.  Anyone I see using this stat as reason Manning > Brees will be scoffed at.  Counting stats are never good comparison statistics.
• Colts.com: Reggie Wayne set a career high for catches with 111 on the season, surpassing his 104 catch season of 2004.  Also, with his 69th TD catch, he passed Raymond Berry for 2nd most in franchise history.

Enough of the accolades, let's get to the numbers...

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Just four short weeks ago, the Colts lost a shootout to the Dallas Cowboys in overtime 38-35, dropping the Colts to 6-6 on the season, looking up at the Jaguars in the standings.  Peyton Manning threw four interceptions for the second consecutive week, and two of them were returned for TDs, for the second consecutive week.  Thankfully for the Colts, they still controlled their own destiny, needing wins in their final four games to win the AFC South.

And, like Colts teams we've seen time and time again, that's exactly what they did.

Sunday's 23-20 win seemed highly improbable, especially in regulation, when Dominic Rhodes fumbled right around mid-field with 1:34 to go in the game.  Titans DB Michael Griffin picked up the fumble and returned it to the Colts 37 yard line, well within K Rob Bironas's range already.  For those of you scoreboard watching (myself included), you knew right around this time that the Texans had defeated the Jaguars, thus winning the AFC South for the Colts, regardless of whether they won or not.  It took a little bit of sting out of the fumble, and I had started to come to terms with the Colts being the 4th seed in the playoffs.

Chris Johnson got 3 yards on first down, and it looked like the Titans would just run the clock down, let Bironas win the game for them, and they'd snap their 4 game losing streak to the Colts.  Then, in a season full of bad breaks for the Colts, they finally got a break in their favor, on something Kerry Collins has done hundreds of thousands of times before.  Collins fumbled the under-center snap, and then couldn't fall on the ball when he saw Robert Mathis jumping at the ball.  We all know who won that battle, and that's big #98.

From there, Manning found Blair White on a great back shoulder route 20 yards down the field, and found a wide open Jacob Tamme to get the final 11 yards needed to put the game on Adam Vinatieri's foot.  There was no doubt in my mind he'd split the uprights, which is exactly what he did from 43 yards out, giving the Colts a 23-20 win, something that very few Colts fans though would happen not 10 minutes earlier.  An improbable win in an improbable season for the Colts.

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Four weeks ago, after the Colts choked away a very winnable game against a piss poor Cowboys team, some schmuck with a blog wrote this about the Colts prospects with four games to play:

Is the season over? Probably. This is a lost team. If the Colts do not make the post-season, Jim Irsay needs to consider making changes. And those changes should probably start in the front office.

Four weeks, and four straight wins later, the Colts are not just heading back to the post-season for the ninth straight year (tying the before-mentioned Cowboys run from 1975-1983), they are also the champs of the AFC South for the seventh time since the division was created in 2002. Indy will enter the 2010 Season NFL Playoffs as the #3 seed due to Kansas City losing to Oakland earlier today.

For a club to go from 6-6 and out of the playoff picture to 10-6, division champs, and the #3 seed in the AFC playoffs is a tremendous achievement, especially considering the untold buckets of crap this club has had to deal with in 2010. From punters getting drunk and swimming in frozen canals to Manning throwing pick-sixes, there were times when I, like many other Colts fans, just wanted to throw up my arms and give up on 2010.

But, this team stuck together, and a coach who (rightly) was taking a lot of heat for several WTF decisions proved he could right a wobbly boat and get this club headed in the right direction. Jim Caldwell deserves much of the credit for taking a 6-6 team and winning four in a row. Since his 'challenge' to the Colts defense, the club has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in three weeks. That trend continued today when, as they'd done against Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden, the Colts shut down Chris Johnson.

20 carries. 39 yards. That's 1.95 a carry folks. That's how you play f*cking defense!

As a team, the Titans had 51 yards rushing. Meanwhile, also for the third straight week, the Colts ran for over 100 yards, averaging 4 yards a carry. It's truly no coincidence that, since the Colts re-learned how to run the ball and stop the run, that they are 4-0.

Can't say enough positive things about how this club handled this 'football adversity,' as Peyton Manning called it in his press conference. As Stampede Blue writer David 'nopunintended' Dietz told me the other day, he feels really good about this team. Right now, I do too.

Go Colts.

Regardless of the final score, the Colts were headed to the post-season thanks to the Texans beating the Jaguars. But, with Indy's win over Tennessee, and KC losing to Oakland earlier today, the Colts are the #3 seed heading into the 2010 playoffs.

Considering where this team was just four weeks ago, that is un-friggin-believable.

Chit-chat here for was post-game love, folks.

Go Colts!

Twenty seconds into the game Sunday, the Colts were already playing out of a hole, and I didn't overreact.  We've seen this before, and the Colts have made a living adjusting to what other teams do.  While the other team taking back the opening kickoff is never good, sometimes it's better to get the wake-up call right away, giving Peyton Manning the most amount of time possible.  It seemed to work.

Some notes from the game:

• Colts.com: The Colts rushed for 190 yards Sunday, after rushing for 155 against Jacksonville last week.  It was the first time the Colts had back-to-back 150 yard rushing games since 2006 (hmmm...).  It was also the first time since 2007 that the Colts had more rushing yards than passing yards.  Wouldn't have expected that to happen before the game.
• Colts.com: Reggie Wayne became only the 11th player to have consecutive 100 catch seasons, and only the 7th player with three or more 100 catch seasons.  This just in...he's pretty good.
• Pro-Football-Reference: Manning now sits in 3rd place for most completions in a season with 423, 17 behind Drew Brees's record of 440, set in 2007.  The kicker is Brees has 426 completions this season, so in order for Manning to set the record, he'll need 4 more completions than Brees this week.  What would this record say?  The Colts threw the ball way too much this season.
• CBS: Manning has now tied Gene Upshaw for the most consecutive starts to begin a career with 207.  I think he'll break that record next weekend.
• Elias: Manning's 27 yard naked bootleg was one yard longer than his previous 98 carries combined, dating back to December, 2005.  While I see Manning running this play maybe one more time in his career, it'll now slow down that pursuing DE for half a second, which might give the RB enough to gain a first down.

Time to get to the stats, which look quite nice defensively...

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