Analysis
NFL Network's RedZone Colts stat of the week: Week Eleven
by BigBlueShoe on Nov 20, 2009 4:13 PM EST
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This post is sponsored by Comcast and their NFL RedZone channel, a new NFL Network channel. Want to see every touchdown from every NFL game as it happens as well as live look-ins to all of Sunday's games in key situations? Then you need Comcast's NFL RedZone.
From Football Outsider's Mike Tanier (via 18to88):
The Colts have the best goal-to-go defense in the NFL according to DVOA.
Even though Indy's pass defense dropped from 9th in yards to 16th in yards following the War of 1812, they've still only allowed 7 TDs. Factor in that the Colts have intercepted 10 balls and forced 10 fumbles, the old tried-and-true Tampa-2 method of forcing teams into mistakes and making them work for TDs continues to work.
Also, for the first time in I don't know how long, Indy's run defense (ranked 14th) is better than the pass defense (16th) in terms of yardage. This means teams have stopped trying to "control the clock" by running the ball, because they know the Colts are good at shutting that down. Also, factor in that New England's passing attack did much of their damage in the first half. After a strong halftime adjustment, the Colts did much better containing Brady and the passing game, forcing them into two turnovers (one an INT in the endzone, another a rather famous turnover-on-downs).
Considering they are doing all this without Kelvin Haden, and I'd say the pass defense is just fine, thank you.
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Gee, you think the Ravens regret letting Matt Stover walk?
by BigBlueShoe on Nov 18, 2009 11:46 AM EST
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Yesterday, the Baltimore Ravens cut kicker Steven Hauschka. Hauschka was handed the starting place kicker job during the off-season after Ravens management decided not to re-sign longtime, legendary kicker Matt Stover who, like Adam Vinatieri, has made a career making big, money, clutch field goals.
Gee, you think Ravens football guru Ossie Newsome regrets that stupid decision?
Prior to getting cut, Hauschka was hitting only 3-5 field goals between 40 and 49 yards and had missed two FGs from less than 39 yards. Against the Cleveland Browns Monday night, Hauschka missed a gimme FG from 36 yards out. Apparently, that's was all Newsome needed to see.
Stover, meanwhile, has found a temporary home with the team that used to play in Baltimore, the Colts. With fellow legend Adam Vinatieri on the shelf for a while recovering from surgery, Stover has come in and been his usual, automatic self. He is 6-6 on FG attempts, hitting all four tries in the 30 to 39 yard range. While sTover likely does not have the leg power to blast a 53-yarder through the uprights, he does do what every good kicker is paid very handsomely to do: Make the gimme FGs.
This is why, for my money, kickers with "big legs" are over-rated. Give me the clutch kickers any day; the guys who make the FGs when the game is on the line. Sure, even the great ones miss one or two here and there, but more often than not they are the ones who propel your team to wins by hitting the big money FG.
Guys like Stover and Vinatieri have made their careers doing that. This weekend, the Colts and Stover will return "home" to Baltimore. Hopefully, he can provide the Ravens with even more regret for letting him walk away from their franchise.
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CFB #2/late night open thread
by shake n bake on Nov 14, 2009 7:44 PM EST
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224 comments
I didn't jump. Iowa played better than I expected and I'd been thinking Cap One Bowl ever since Stanzi was helped off the field last week.
Night games are
- #2 Bama vs Miss State
- #8 LSU vs Louisiana Tech
- #4 TCU vs #16 Utah
- #17 Arizona vs Cal
- #12 Pitt vs Norte Dame
- #13 Oregon vs Arizona St.
- #19 OK State vs Texas Tech
I'll be rooting for nearly all underdogs to give Iowa a shot at an At-Large BCS berth with a stomping of the LOLphers at home next week.
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Beating the Patriots just got a little harder
by MaPatsFan on Nov 13, 2009 6:06 PM EST
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50 comments
As you may have seen in shake's injury report post (now updated with the Pats report -shake), we see a number of Patriots "returning" to practice. I take this with a grain of salt as the players were noticed at the media portion of practice; the rest of practice is closed to all but team personnel, so whether or not they're playing is STILL anyone's guess. Maybe they're return to practice is Hoodie's way of making the Colts prepare for players who may not be there. Maybe they really WILL play. At any rate, I'll run through the returns as if they're playing and get some conversation going on their impact.
- WR Julian Edelman - Edelman earned his stripes when Wes Welker missed a few games earlier in the season. He came up to speed quick and displayed Welker-like quickness and good hands. He "could" work well as our third receiver or rotate in and out with Welker. Given the choice, I'd want Welker on the field, but it's nice to have Julian on board.
- RB Sammy Morris - Morris adds depth and can be a better fit when Laurence Maroney is having trouble. He also has good hands and can serve as a checkdown option when needed.
- LT Matt Light - Sebastian Vollmer has been filling in for Light and doing a fine job. However, LT lines up against Dwight Freeney. Belichick will have to make a choice: the experienced veteran just coming back from an injury or the fresh rookie who's been doing well. Ultimately, I think they'll start Vollmer, see how he handles Freeney, and use Light if the rookie is in trouble.
- C Dan Koppen - This is big, especially against Indy. I'd much rather have the experienced guy swallowing up Indy's defensive linemen.
- S Brandon Meriweather - Another positive return. I was concerned when he ended up on the injury report as he's one of the Patriots more productive safeties. Brandown McGowan will most likely take FS duties and be assigned Dallas Clark while Meriweather gets SS.
- LB Eric Alexander - Alexander is not a game changer, but he adds depth when needed. It's good to have him on board.
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A Patriots fan's favorite Colt: Dallas Clark
by MaPatsFan on Nov 12, 2009 1:30 PM EST
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24 comments
I get asked this question a lot during blogging exchanges: if you were to pick one player on our team to wear a Patriots jersey, who would it be? Ugghh. Invariably, I usually miss totally on this question. If I pick my favorite player, I then get hammered because it isn't usually based on a need; it's simply because I like the guy. Conversely, if I pick based on need, I may miss an obvious talent.
If I were to pick based on need, it would be Dwight Freeney. Now, I know the thought of Dwight Freeney in a Patriots uniform will make many of you hurl, but just hear me out for a second. The Patriots have been struggling mightily with pass rushing duties. OLB Adalius Thomas is decent enough at sealing the edges, but he hasn't been the rusher we thought he'd become. In the off-season, you may have noticed a much rumored play for DE Julius Peppers that never came true, or a very aggressive play for Jason Taylor (who, IMO, made the right move by going back to Miami). We ultimately brought back ex Patriot Tully Banta-Caine and traded some picks for Oakland's Derrick Burgess. Both these rushers, like Thomas, are serviceable, but not game changers. Dwight Freeney is one of those rushers that can cause serious problems for an offense. He would be my vote, IF I was choosing based on need. I am not.
Dallas Clark is the man because I'm choosing solely based on who I like.
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Interesting stats website that gives insight into Colts players
by BigBlueShoe on Nov 12, 2009 11:14 AM EST
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15 comments
Contrary to what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach thinks, stats are not for losers. We have writers here like mgrex03 (who runs his own stats system) and shake n bake (who is a Football Outsiders DVOA cult member) who provide us with great insight into football stats. Stats are not the be-all, end-all of football, but they do provide a small window into how good (or bad) are team really is.
Recently, some of our football writers got pointed to a new and interesting site: Pro Football Focus. Here is a bit from their About Page:
Why do we Grade?Quite simply to help us determine, in all facets of the game, who played well and who didn't. We want to understand not just how many yards a player gained or how many sacks they conceded but also how well they blocked, how effectively they rushed the passer or how they played in coverage. So, to this end, we measure not only a lot of additional information about the play such as Yards after Catch, Missed Tackles, Dropped Passes etc., we also analyze every player to determine if an Offensive Linemen made a key block, a Defensive Tackle stopped a Guard getting to the second level or if a linebacker kept outside contain on a run. We are not so much interested in how many tackles a Safety made but where he made them, when he made them and what obstacles he overcame to make them.
Interesting idea, and I have to admit the site is very user friendly. They have stats for linemen, safeties, wide receivers on running plays, and more. While I'm not ready to proclaim this site the greatest football stats site out there, it does seem to provide a fairly accurate assessment of line play. without even looking at their grading method, take a look at their assessment of Colts guard Mike Pollak:
Yep, that looks pretty accurate to me, and that kind of production is likely why Pollak was recently benched for Kyle DeVan, who last year was playing Arena Football.
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Week 10 Advanced Stat Roundup
by shake n bake on Nov 11, 2009 8:20 PM EST
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The Colts inefficient passing, combined with the Texans moderate success passing knocked the Colts out of the top spots in Pass O and Pass D efficiency, and thus out of the top spot in Advanced NFL Stats' ratings. The Colts sit behind the Saints at #2 with a 81% chance of beating an average team on a neutral field. The Colts boast the #3 ranked offense and 4th ranked defense along with avoiding mistakes well as evidenced by the 3rd lowest penalty rate, 5th lowest INT rate and 7th lowest fumble rate in the league.
Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) places the Colts as the 4th best team in the league (3rd best by weighted DVOA which decreases the weight of games played early in the season) and 2nd best in the AFC to the Patriots, but with a better chance of making the playoffs, winning the AFC title and winning the Superbowl by virtue of their 2 game lead.
The Colts are projected with a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs, a 76.5% chance of a bye, a 56.8% chance of homefield throughout (#1 seed), a 30.9% chance of an AFC title and Superbowl odds of 16.6%.
The Colts passing O is ranked 3rd and run O at #18 for an overall rating of 5th. They also rate the Colts as one of the 5 least consistent offenses in the league from game to game. On defense the Colts have moved up to 6th overall on the strength of the 5th ranked pass D and despite a 20th ranked run D. The Colts have been the 10th most consistent defense in the league. The headliner of the week is that the Colts have a top 10 special teams unit.
More DVOA after the jump
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Armaggedon 2009 (or, the War of 18 and 12) : Just how evenly matched are the Patriots and Colts
by BigBlueShoe on Nov 11, 2009 6:16 AM EST
in Analysis
10 comments
For all the hoopla the New Orleans Saints are getting (and rightly so) for their 8-0 start, the reality is that, statistically, the Patriots and the Colts are more impressive. And while it is no en vogue for people like Buccaneers coach Raheem Morris to proclaim "Statistics are for losers," the reality is stats tell us an awful lot about how good a team will likely be moving forward.
Small side note: Anyone else find it both pathetically and ironically funny that Morris, who is 1-7 as a head coach, would proclaim that "statistics are for losers." Speaking of losers, Morris will be lucky if he keeps his job at the end of this season.
The Saints sport the league's best offense, averaging nearly 38 points per game, which is, of course, INSANE! However, their defense is surrendering 21 points per game, ranking them 19th in the league. But while the Saints appear free-wheelin' and high-flyin', the Patriots and Colts seem much more balanced as football teams and, therefore, much more dangerous.
New England sports the #2 scoring defense in football, surrendering 14 points a game. Their offense scores 28 points per game (#3 in the league). Indy trots out the #1 scoring defense, giving up just 13 points per game, and an offense that scores 27 points per game (#6 in the league).
If we Colts fans know anything it's that great offense with mediocre-to-bad defense can only take you so far in this league. Eventually, you will run into a team that will stall your offense. When that happens, your defense must have the talent and the coaching to win the game for your team. For the Pats and Colts, they seem to have the kind of defensive talent to stop opposing teams, which is incredible considering the Pats are without Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, and Richard Seymour this year. Meanwhile, the Colts are without Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, Ed Johnson, and Tyjuan Hagler. Yet, they still shut people down.
Again, balance on offense and defense can make a football team dangerous, and this Sunday two very dangerous teams will face off in what hopefully will be a great game.
For more, check out Marima's FanShot.
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