The relationship between draft position and both Pro Bowl selections and years as a starter wasn't enough to convince a Mocking the Draft commenter that scouts and front offices are at all accurate in finding the best players, and that draft position does relate to a players career success. The commenter wanted only HOF data. The results from the 77 HOF inductees that have been drafted since 1967 (when the AFL and NFL began holding a common draft as the first step of their merger)?

What you'd expect. HOFers are overwhelmingly from early in the draft. As many #1 overall picks made the HOF as players from outside the top 100 (9). That is made even more impressive by considering the size of each group of candidates, 24 HOF eligible #1 overall picks vs several thousand players not taken in the top 100 (not to mention the countless undrafted players, who account for 4 of the 9 players not taken in the top 100).

Over 40% (32 of 77) of the HOF inductees were top 10 picks. The number passes the halfway mark at #17 overall. At the end of the first round the number is 47. By the 50th pick 60 of the 77 HOFers were taken.

Jump for graphs

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I hope everyone enjoyed last night's little podcast, which (truth be told) was little more than a glorified test of Blog Talk Radio's features. I hadn't touched the site in over two years and needed a little test drive before I start making higher quality podcasts. And a special thank you to Indy Lori for the kind words about my radio voice. I must admit, i come in a distant second to JasonB, who has the best radio voice of anyone at SB Nation. Listen to his podcasts (which are the best of any SB Nation podcasts, period) and you'll know I'm speaking the truth.

Now, onto the good stuff (and today, it will truly gooooooood):

• Second year DE Marcus Howard expects to make more of an impact in 2009. In limited play, Howard was impressive last year. Seeing as Indy only has five DEs on the roster, that indicates to me that Caldwell and Polian are very confident Howard and Curtis Johnson can step in should Dwight or Robert get hurt.
• Speaking of Dwight Freeney, he has a rather impressive workout routine, which is a combination of martial arts and weight training. Note to self: Never get in a fight with Dwight Freeney.
• Stayign with defense, lefpsydhas a FanPost up talking about a nice article on new starting LBer Philip Wheeler.
• So, it seems 18 to 88 didn't like our bashing of the Indianapolis Star and their horrid coverage of the Colts. Apparently, it is "classless" on our part to demand the Star (a major metropolitan newspaper) provide the same coverage of the Colts (12-4 last year, best QB in football) that the Green Bay Press-Gazette (smaller city, smaller paper) provides to the Green Bay Packers (6-10 last year, no Brett Favre). At 18 to 88, such demands are "classless" and "unfair." Part of the reason 18 to 88 thinks this is because to them "off-season chatter" is not enjoyable. This is, of course, regrettable seeing as 18 to 88 is a (supposed) dedicated Colts blog and almost 75% of a team's calendar year is spent in the off-season. Maybe that's why almost half of 18 to 88's content has nothing to do with the Colts. No offense, but no one really cares what 18 to 88 thinks about racing, soccer, or the completely irrelevant Cincinnati Reds. They either need to re-brand the site as a general Indiana sports site, or stop wasting our time with content we don't care about. Love those dudes to death, but if they have this kind of negative attitude towards off-season coverage of the Colts, it sends a clear message to readers that for eight of the twelve months in a year people should ignore 18 to 88. 
• It's now been 20 days since the Star wrote an article on the Colts. The Green Bay Press-Gazette (Gannett-owned, just like the Star) posted a Packers article two days ago. They also did a live-chat with one of their writers recently; a weekly occurrence during the off-season. Yep, the Star pretty much still sucks.
• Another Austin Collie article from out west. He's a popular guy out there, it seems.
• Yahoo and National Football Post thinks Bob Sanders is the key impact player for the Colts in 2009. I agree, he is one of many key players, but not the key. Sadly, writer Matt Bowen doesn't know what he's talking about when he elaborates:

  I’m picking Sanders for the Colts because when he isn’t on the field, their defense suffers.

  ...

  If he plays an entire season, the Colts will compete for the division title.

  Um, Bob Sanders hardly played at all last year, and the Colts still very much competed for their division. They would have won the division if Peyton Manning hadn't started the season playing on one leg. Matt Bowen would know this if Matt Bowen actually watched Colts football games. He'd know that Melvin Bullitt more than filled in for Bob last year. 
• Nice chat with DT Eric Foster, the Colts most under-rated player (and possibly the toughest). The kid was a rookie last season playing all his games as the starting nose tackle while weighing only 270 pounds. Tough, tough player out of Rutgers.
• FOOTBALL IS BACK... in Canada. The CFL opened their season yesterday. The Saskatchewan Rough Riders (and their best running back, Kenton Keith) open their season tomorrow. Another CFL-Colts connection involves the CFL's champions last year: The Calgary Stampeders. The head coach of the Stampeders, John Hufnagel, used to be Indy's QB coach back in 2001. He was replaced by Jim Caldwell in 2002.

Now, before I close up the Luke Links for this week, let me state that I love 18 to 88 and I enjoy reading their stuff. My annoyance with their latest post and their choice of content stems from my desire (as a loyal 18 to 88 reader) to read more of their opinions about some of the very subjects they seem to loath covering; chief among those subjects is the Colts in the off-season. Supposed "hand-wringing" over the roster, analysis of players, opinions on this and that while games are not getting played... that is what NFL blogging is. One of the major reasons people reads blogs at all is because they are willing to talk about this kind of stuff while newspapers (like the Star) take two month vacations and sit on their hands.

If 18 to 88 truly dislikes off-season blogging, then what the hell are they doing covering the Colts? As stated earlier, 75% of a Colts blogger's job is writing about the off-season.

So, I'm not ranting here because I hate those guys, think they suck, or feel we Colts fans should ignore the site. Far from it. My annoyance is with their assumption that when supposedly "nothing" is happening, nothing should be covered.

Um, no. There is no real "off-season" in football anymore.

If fans aren't talking about the draft or free agency during the off-season, they're talking about who will win what job and how well they'll do at that job. They're talking scheme changes, coaching changes, and player changes. They're talking rookies, free agents, and veterans.

That is Colts blogging.

If that doesn't appeal to 18 to 88, then they really should blog about something else (general Indiana or Midwest sports, maybe). If not, their site title and description are misleading, and (as an avid 18 to 88 reader) it annoys me that one of the only reasons I'd ever go to 18 to 88 (analysis of the Colts during the off-season) is something the writers there say they don't like doing. I hope they change their mind and start re-focusing more on the central subject of their blog. They've lost their way a little bit, in this reader's opinion.

My last post gave the best and worst single seasons, now here are the best and worst of the whole 8 year span.

Continue reading this post »

Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. Mine was a bit of a downer. As a kid, I was a big Michael Jackson fan. Used to have one of his jackets. Dozens of zippers and stuff. Made me the coolest kid in school having that jacket. Like Elvis, Jackson was a talented entertainment icon. His death signals the complete end of an era. And I actually enjoyed Bill Mays. It's hard to sell useless crap and make it seem fun and important. He did that. His death seems similar to what happened to Natasha Richardson in that a knock on the head might have caused some internal bleeding. Very sad. Silly jokes about OxyClean and Mighty Putty aside, the guy had a family, just like Jackson and the now-late Farrah Fawcett. Sad stuff. Sorry to start the week on the downer.

The positive is in one month, training camps start opening. One month. 31 little days. Start the countdown, kids and kittens!

• Oh, you rascal you, Pete Prisco. Looks like I shall not (or, shan't--- love that word) be bashing your top 50 NFL players this year as I've done in previous years. Manning is #1 and Brady #2. That's pretty much how it has been since, oh, 2001. But hey, that's just me.
• Sadly, Fox Sports Adrian Hasenmayer is not as cool or insightful as Pete Prisco. lists New England Patriots' QB depth better than Indy's. Really. Jim Sorgi (a five year vet) is worse than Kevin O'Connell (never played an NFL game, ever)? Maybe he means that Tom Brady (recovering from two major knee surgeries) is better than Peyton Manning (reigning 2008 MVP). Either way, Hasenmayer comes off looking like an idiot for his amateurish analysis.
• Peyton Manning. Madden 10. Get excited.
• Mike Pollak is "ready for the jump." He damn well better, or we fans will most certainly jump all over him.
• Steve Justice, another "Why'd Indy draft him?" player from the 2008 draft, talks about training camp and getting ready for the 2009 season. In this writer's humble opinion, do not be surprised to see Justice cut by the end of camp. With Jamey Richard clearly cemented as Jeff Saturday's back-up at center, Justice services absolutely zero purpose on this team unless he can learn to play guard.
  
• Brett Favre is expected at Vikings training camp in one month. This means Favre's first game in purple will be the Vikings v. Colts pre-season game at The Luke on August 14th. Hmmmm... Favre in purple v. Manning. I'm thinking maybe that game will get the national spotlight. Our own Cassieper has a FanPost on Favre.
• From last week, but still interesting; looks like Roy Hall knows this is a make-or-break season for him. He's got a good coach in Clyde Christensen, a head coach that likes him, and the best QB in football throwing him the ball. Roy should be fine. Tip to Hitstick Killer.
  
• FanPost on great Colts games on iTunes.
• And finally, Peter King likely got lost in an airport coffee shop somewhere, which is likely why this week's Monday Morning QB is authored by new-retired NFL QB Trent Green. Green describes the temporary gig:

  The honor I feel as the first Monday Morning Quarterback guest columnist is only eclipsed by the pressure. It's one thing to play football in front of 80,000 fans on Sundays, but it's quite another to write about it knowing 1.5 million of you are used to a pro like Peter King. I feel a little like Jim Sorgi stepping in for Peyton Manning. (No offense, Jim.)

  LOL. Sure Trent. No offense, indeed. For what it's worth, Green does a fine job stepping in for Peter.
  

More photos » by Seth Wenig - AP

9 days ago: NBA commissioner David Stern, left, poses with North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough, who was picked by the Indiana Pacers during the first round of the NBA basketball draft in New York, Thursday, June 25, 2009. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

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Last night was the NBA draft, and the Indiana Pacers selected UNC great Tyler Hansbrough with the #13 pick. Pacer fans seems very split over the selection, especially since a player like Ty Lawson was still on the board. Indy Corn Rows was at Conseco Fieldhouse on draft night, and weighed in on the pick:

The Pacers obviously have a plan for Hansbrough as judged by their excitement over the pick. The Pacers needed to upgrade their defensive effort and intensity, especially in the front court. Hansbrough will help in that area, but he'll have to prove he can give his trademark effort without drawing fouls rapidly.

One thing that is unfair and lazy is to say that Hansbrough has NO upside and is done developing as a player. That's simply ridiculous. Players who stop developing in the NBA don't work on their game. I have a feeling Hansbrough will drop a little sweat when he runs into the barriers his game can't initially overcome.

It seems Corn Rows is happy with the pick, and, according to their information, the Pacers were ecstatic he was still there at #13.

At first glance, it seems the Pacers are continuing their rebuild with strong, active, high character players (following a model the Colts use when they draft). However, unlike the NFL, NBA teams are not built through the draft. Free agency and trades built NBA champions, and unless you have a top 3 pick the NBA draft can be pretty meaningless sometimes.

Hansbrough falls in the category of low risk, high effort player. At 6'9, he is not going to dominate as a shot blocker. He is going to have to make his living being active around the rim and playing hard. Because of the Pacers' tenuous relationship with fans as a result of all the years of watching players getting more arrests off the court than wins on it, Indiana cannot afford to draft "risky" players. They must know exactly what they are getting and maximize that talent. Remember, Indy tried to draft players with "upside" for many years (Jonathan Bender, Al Harrington, Jamal Tinsely) and all it did was drive fans away from the arena.

So, while others clearly wanted the Pacers to draft someone who is higher risk, higher reward, that type of mentality damaged fan relations with the Pacers. Fans want to see effort, not "talent." Sadly, in the NBA, effort is secondary to star influence. Stars rule the NBA. They get all the calls. Have the rules bent for them. It is all about them winning, not the teams.

It's a major reason why the NBA is dying.

I applaud the Pacers for taking more high effort, high energy players. This team may not win a ring anytime soon because they cannot attract a Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, or Kobe Bryant (and you must have a player like those in order to have any shot at a ring), but at least they play like a team. And that is what basketball truly is, not this bastardization of basketball that calls itself the NBA.

Check out one of the few blogs that makes Indiana NBA basketball fun again: Indy Corn Rows. Tom does a great job over there blogging Pacers hoops.

We thought a little late-afternoon linkage was in order. The new Transformers movie is getting destroyed by critics, and it seems for good reason. Apparently, some of the robots in the film are presented as racial stereotypes. That's unfortunate. I guess if you have kids, ignore this thing. Take them to "Up!"

• While Pierre Garcon has the edge when it comes to locking down the #3 WR spot, do not count out rookie Austin Collie. He impressed many during OTAs. Now, we need to see if he is as good playing in live games.
• I disagree with John Oehser. ESPN's silly "all decade" MVP did not draw my ire, or the ire of many in the blogosphere. It simply provided another example that ESPN is a vapid sports news media entity that employs some very stupid writers. "Ire" requires anger. I saw little anger but more annoyance and a few dismissive chuckles.  
• Dwight Freeney wants former Bears DE Richard Dent in the Hall of Fame. I agree. If Michael friggin Irvin is in there, why isn't Dent?
• Donald Brown is ranked 3rd among fantasy rookie RBs.
• Jamey Richard is still learning. He will also likely push Mike Pollak for the starting guard spot. If Pollak (a 2nd rounder) loses his job to the more physical and seemingly tougher Richard (a 7th rounder), then Pollak might be one of Polian's bigger draft busts in a long while. We shall see. 
• Scouts.com talks about the off-season for teams in the AFC South.
• Gary Brackett chats it up on Colts.com. 
• Bob Sanders seems to like the new defense, which (not surprisingly) is very similar to the old one.

I got an email today (one of the few non-hate emails) asking me why the Indianapolis Colts have not made an offer to former-Tampa Bay Buccaneers LBer Derrick Brooks. Brooks, a future Hall of Fame lock, was released by TB early this off-season in a move that sent a clear message to both the team and the NFL: The days of Tampa 2 in Tampa Bay are over. They also released him because, at age 36, 2008 saw a sharp decline in Brooks' productivity. Since 2001, Brooks has averaged (averaged!) at least 115 tackles. In 2008, he had only 73.

So, to answer the question, Why hasn't Indy signed, or made an offer, for Brooks?, the simple answer is this: The current crop of Colts LBers are now better than Brooks. Clint Session, Indy's third year LBer, had 94 tackles in 2008 to go with 3 forced fumbles. He is penciled in to start at weakside backer, the position Brooks helped revolutionized in the Tampa 2. Backing up Session are two former Colts starters, Freddy Keiaho and Tyjuan Hagler.

If Indy were to sign Brooks, it is very likely Brooks would not even make the final roster cut down, let alone play any meaningful snaps.

Right now, Brooks is doing what Marvin Harrison is doing. They will wait. They'll wait for a few pre-season games to go by, and some players on some teams will start to get hurt and land on the PUP. This could even happen to the Colts. If a rash of injuries hits the weakside spot, I can pretty much guarantee you that (if Brooks is still out there) Bill Polian will certainly consider bringing him in. They did this with DE Simeon Rice back in 2007. He came in for Dwight Freeney when Dwight broke his foot. Unfortunately, Rice didn't play well. He was eventually cut.

Like so many teams, the trend is work with youth and ability as opposed to veteran "savvy." This is why great players like Marvin and Derrick are still lingering out there. They are simply waiting for some of this youth to break down. When that happens, NFL GMs will then give their agents a call, asking the to come in and right the ship a bit.

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

17 days ago: New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, left, chats with his brother, Indianapolis Colts' Peyton Manning, as Giants' Brandon Jacobs, right, finds his seat at the New York Yankees' baseball game against the Washington Nationals on Wednesday, June 17, 2009, at Yankee Stadium in New York. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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Hope you dads out there had a fun and relaxing Father's Day. I know some of the SB Nation writers who are dads (like John Bena, aka TheSportsGuru) had an enjoyable Father's Day at the Cheesecake Factory. If you have any stories about Dad Day you want to share, post them in the comments. Love to hear them.

I who do not have kids (and thus, have actual money that I can spend on things other than diapers and poop wipes) spent Father's Day having brunch with my fiance and obsessing over wedding invitations. Real quick FYI: I am getting married the Saturday before the Colts open the 2009 season. Here's the the Colts hopefully giving me a nice wedding present. Now, onto the links that call The Luke their home (or something like that):

• Marlin Jackson has a kids football camp. Marlin Jackson also will rap for those kids. Such are the many talents of one of the more under-rated CBs in football. Link via Paul Kuharsky at ESPN.com. Tip to LovinBlue.
  
• Big G (aka Gijon Robinson) surprised many last year by not only making the active roster, but by earning and holding onto the #2 tight end roster spot. This year, he will have to compete again with 2008 draftees Jacob Tamme and Tom Santi. However, unlike last year, Gijon has the leg up.
• You too can spend $6.95 a month to have access to ESPN Insider just so they can tell you that Peyton Manning is the NFL's more irreplaceable player. ESPN Insider will also tell you that water is wet, the sky is blue, and Bill Simmons is a spineless windbag; all for a small fee, of course.
• What can Brown do for you?
• Small off topic shout out to 1260 AM's "The Drive" and the show's host JMV for interviewing Indy Corn Rows blogger Tom Lewis back on June 17th. They talked about the NBA Draft (coming up this Thursday) and also touched on the dust up between myself and Bob Kravtiz. It's nice to see local Indy stations like WNDE finally giving good blogger like Tom some time on air.
  
• Raheem Brock was inspired by Marvin Harrison's real estate work in the Philadelphia area, creating bars and car washes as a way to generate business is traditionally poor, economically depressed areas. Brock has followed in Marvin's footsteps and opened a restaurant near Temple University.
• Speaking of Marvin, Don Banks cited his connection to a bar brawl in 2008 as an example of modern NFL wide receivers acting as divas. Real quick recap of the facts: Marvin Harrison didn't shoot anyone. No charges were filed. No convictions made. The guy who made the initial complaint is a convicted felon with a very sketchy track record. Yet, this incident is on par with, say, Terrell Owens acting like an idiot or Chad Ochocincho (his new name now, really) being Chad Ochocincho. Slowly but surely, Don Banks' repuation as a seriously sports writer is erroding away.
• Fake Teams debates itself as to whether Peyton Manning is the best fantasy QB heading into 2009.
• Walter Football evaluates the 2009 Colts and likes what they see.
• And finally, since it's the off-season and we can't see any new highlights, here's a link to a fun site where Bob Sanders is given a Predator mask while his highlights are put to music. Enjoy.