Analysis
Overcoming the "bump": How great teams keep winning despite setbacks
by BigBlueShoe on Nov 6, 2009 11:09 AM EST
in Analysis
40 comments
Every NFL teams experiences a point in their season where something happens to disrupt their flow. Things are going well. The team is winning. Players are happy, flying around, looking to make plays, etc. Coaches are jovial in press conferences. Media are anointing the club, calling them "the best ever." Yippee-yippee-yay-yay!
Then, something happens.
Usually, it comes in the form of an injury. Or, sometimes, it's a team tragedy or some kind of disaster. Last season, we all saw the Houston Texans' "bump" come in the form of a hurricane that damaged their stadium, their facilities, and (for many players) their homes. The Texans never recovered from that "bump," and missed the playoffs because of a bad start.
In 2007, the our own, beloved Colts looked like they would repeat as world champions. They were 7-1 and flying high. Then, they lost Dwight Freeney for the season. They limped along for the rest of 2007, managed to finish the season 6-1 after the Freeney injury, but lost in the playoffs to the Chargers due in large part because of a lack of pass rush. In 2008, Peyton Manning's knee problems, coupled with the disasters at the defensive tackle spot, provided Indy with their "bump" very early in the NFL campaign. The team fumbled and bumbled their way through a 3-4 start. Though Indy managed to close the season on a 7-0 run, they lost in the playoffs again to the Chargers due in large part because of problems they had as a result of their "bump" early in the season (poor DT play).
Bumps for teams can sometimes be too much to handle. They can throw an entire season off track. However, it is the truly great teams that incur these bumps and, somehow, manage to win games in spite of them.
For my money, no championship team in recent memory was as injured as the 2006 Colts. They lost Brandon Stokley, Mike Doss, Corey Simon, James Mungro, and Montae Reagor for the season. Their secondary was a list of walking wounded. Bob Sanders missed virtually all the 2006 regular season (shocking, I know). Yet, despite the injuries, they persevered and won the Super Bowl.
Last season, we saw the Pittsburgh Steelers lose both their first and second round picks in the 2008 draft (Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed, respectively). They also played games in 2008 without Willie Parker, using castoff Mewelde Moore as their feature back. They lost Casey Hampton and Heath Miller for long stretches of time. Starting offensive guard Kendall Simmons was lost for the season with an Achilles injury. Steelers starters missed over 31 games in 2008 due to injuries. In Week Sixteen, they were dominated by the Tennessee Titans, and many wondered if the Steelers were as good as others said they were.
Yet, I distinctly remember seeing the Steelers hoist the Lombardi trophy this past February.
Obviously, too many injuries, or one devastating injury, can kill your football team. But just because you loose a few starters, or because some other players are down for a while, does not mean that is an excuse to lose. The great teams win despite injuries, and even though the 2009 Colts have lost some players this week, this roster is still good enough to win it all.
More importantly, with this current roster, I expect them to win it all.
I love players like Marlin Jackson and Tyjuan Hagler. But this is the NFL. Injuries happen. For eight weeks, this team has been able to get by without having a serious injury smack them upside the head. Now, they have two. We'll see how tough they are overcoming this "bump" in the coming weeks. Personally, I think they will be fine.
40 comments | 1 recs |
Week 8, Advanced Stat Roundup
by shake n bake on Nov 5, 2009 9:11 PM EST
in Analysis
8 comments
We interrupt this injury wave for a look at the stats.
Over at Advanced NFL Stats the Colts remain in the top spot. With the 3rd ranked O, the 8th ranked D and the 4th lowest penalty rate. The Colts still hold onto the top spot in passing efficiency on both O and D. The Colts are given an 86% chance of winning Sunday by their projection.
Our old friend Wolfpack Steelers Fan runs a comparison of the Colts and Saints. He gives a slight edge to the Saints largely on the basis of SOS adjustment and run-pass balance. My two objections are that a significant amount of yardage is hidden from the numbers he uses in the form of penalties, where the Colts are among the cleanest playing teams and the Saints merely average. The second point I'd raise is that pass O and pass D have been shown to have a stronger relationship with winning, than run O and D.
At FO the Colts are one of 5 very good, but not all time great teams in the league this year sitting in the 11th to 25th range in DVOA among the teams of the last 16 years. The Colts are ranked 4th overall, but are given the 2nd best odds of a Superbowl Title and best odds of an AFC Title by virtue of the two game lead they have on the current DVOA favorite, and evil empire New England Patriots.
More with FO after the jump
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Rookie of the Year: Austin Collie?
by BigBlueShoe on Nov 5, 2009 7:44 AM EST
in Analysis
9 comments
Percy Harvin in Minnesota is really turning heads. The Vikings have not had a dynamic receiver like Harvin since the days of Randy Moss. However, unlike Moss, Harvin is also a threat to score on special teams. He already has two kickoff returns for TDs and 23 returns of 20 or more yards. Harvin also had impressive receiving stats, with 28 receptions for 369 yards and 3 TDs.
However, despite some good numbers, Harvin's receiving numbers are eclipsed by another rookie: Colts slot receiver Austin Collie.
Collie, who is probably the best rookie WR we've seen in Indy since Marvin Harrison in his rookie season in 1996, has 30 receptions for 330 yards and 4 TDs. What pushes Harvin over the top is his kick returns, and while other rookies like Knowshon Moreno, Brian Orakpo, Brian Cushing, and Jairus Byrd are having great seasons, it's important to point out that all the players mentioned here are first day picks.
All but one. Collie was taken in the 4th round of the 2009 draft.
So, even though Harvin has really shined returning kicks, keep an eye on Collie's numbers as the season progresses. If his catches, yards, and TDs are better than Harvin's, Collie deserves a little RotY love. Interesting sidenote: Donald Brown is #3 on the rookie rushing list with 212 yards and 2 TDs.
9 comments | 0 recs |
Colts have the #1 defense in football
by BigBlueShoe on Nov 3, 2009 12:15 PM EST
in Analysis
79 comments
A priority of the new Colts coach Jim Caldwell this off-season was improving Indy's defense. Though the 2008 Colts were ranked high in terms of scoring defense (#6, surrendering 18.6 ppg), their inconsistent run defense and horrid execution on third down were weaknesses teams like the San Diego Chargers exploited with great success.
The tragedy that was the 2008 defense would play out as follows: The opponent would run for roughly 8 yards total on first and second down, convert third and short, and sustain long drives which would often result in points. Teams could drive between the 20s with ease, but would often stall in the redzone (thus, allowing only 18.6 ppg). Teams never blew out the Colts, but they would hang around with annoying effect, only to spring a big play on the Colts defense sometime late in a game. We saw the Titans do this last year, dominating the fourth quarter in Nashville, and the Chargers worked the same magic in overtime in the playoffs.
This season, things are a little different. When the Colts get the lead, they lay the hammer down on their opponents.
The Colts currently sport the #1 defense in football. While the typical ranking for #1 defense is usually yards per game, anyone who knows football knows that yards per game is about as important (as in, not very) as time of possession. The key stat for ranking a #1 defense is average points allowed. Yahoo Sports, who boast some very robust stats, use scoring defense is their standard for total defensive ranks. With the Denver Broncos getting blown out this past weekend against the Baltimore Ravens, the Colts have leap-frogged the Broncos as the #1 scoring defense, allowing a spectacular 13 ppg. Even in the utterly over-rated category of yards per game, the Colts are ranked very high at #9.
79 comments | 1 recs |
NFL Network's RedZone Colts stat of the week: Week Nine
by BigBlueShoe on Nov 3, 2009 8:22 AM EST
in Analysis
21 comments
This post is sponsored by Comcast and their NFL RedZone channel, a new NFL Network channel. Want to see every touchdown from every NFL game as it happens as well as live look-ins to all of Sunday's games in key situations? Then you need Comcast's NFL RedZone.
Colts were 0-4 in TD opportunities in the redzone against the 49ers this past Sunday. They had to settle for field goals, which kicker Matt Stover converted. He was 4-4 in the game. The TD pass from Joseph Addai to Reggie Wayne does not count as a redzone TD because the play started at the SF 22 yard line. So, for the Colts, Sunday's game weakened their impressive redzone offense and defense stats.
Indy's offensive redzone efficiency drops from 66% to 56% after going 0-4 in the redzone. This brings the stats back "down to earth," so to speak. If the Colts went the whole season scoring 66% of their redzone TDs, I have to think that would be some kind of NFL record. No offense scores TDs with that kind of frequency in the redzone over at 16 game haul. 56% is still a damn fine percentage, especially when you factor in that the Colts have generated more redzone opportunities with their offense (25) than they've allowed with their defense (only 14).
Speaking of defense, the 49ers only had one drive into Indy's redzone all game, pushing up the Colts drives allowed to 14. However, the 49ers converted that redzone drive into a TD, knocking up Indy's redzone defensive percentage from 46% to 50%. This means that 50% of the time that a team drives into Indy's redzone, they score a TD. That's not great, but it isn't bad. It does need to be improved upon.
One key change between this year's defense and defense in previous years is the Colts are focusing more on limiting redzone opportunities for opponents by getting them off the field early in their drives. SF had 12 drives in the game and only one of the drives found the redzone. Indy forced 6 three-and-outs on the SF offense, and one other drive resulted in a turnover (Bob Sanders' INT off the Kelvin Hayden deflection). I believe the Colts had 6 total three-and-outs forced all of last year. They forced only 45 three-and-outs in 2008. I still throw up in my mouth a little bit when I think of last year's third down defense.
Much of SF's success occurred in the first half. It was then that Frank Gore got his lucky 64 yard TD run, and it was just before halftime that the 49ers had their lone successful drive of the game, going 89 yards for a TD in just over a minute. In the second half, the 49ers were shutout. They did not work any drives into Indy's redzone, nor did they score any points. They were also limited to only 4 drives in the second half. They had 8 in the first.
We'll continue to keep track of these stats as the year progresses.
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Why close games are good for the soul
by BigBlueShoe on Nov 2, 2009 12:41 PM EST
in Analysis
58 comments
I enjoy close games.
Don't get me wrong. Blowing out an opponent certainly makes me "feel" better for much of the day, and I certainly have more fingernail mass around the tips of my fingers. However, blowouts don't really measure the heart of a good football team. "Nail-biters" do. Joseph Addai echoed that statement during his post-game discussion with the press:
"You feel good about yourself when you win the close ones," RB Joseph Addai said after a game in which his 22-yard touchdown pass to WR Reggie Wayne provided not only unusual fourth-quarter points, but the winning ones.
"You have those games that you win that are really big. Yeah, it's a good game, but it means something when it's close. That was a game you didn't think about the scoreboard. You just went out there and played."
While some hem and haw over the offense not being efficient enough, or the line not blocking well, or Peyton Manning seeming out of rhythm, I personally chalk all that talk up to spoiled fans you don't seem to understand that in the NFL blowouts are indeed very rare. You may THINK your team should blow out the opponent, but understand that this is the man's game, not college football. Just two weeks ago, everyone was bashing the Philadelphia Eagles for losing a terribly played game to the woeful Oakland Raiders. Now, Philly is on top in the NFC East after blowing out the Giants in impressive fashion. By the way, that's the same Giants team that started 5-0, and has since lost 3 straight.
Ebb and flow, folks. Hype and hate.
Perspective is often key in enjoying and appreciating the NFL. We Colts fans tend to get way to tunneled into how good Peyton Manning and the offense actually are, skewing our perspective. A "bad" day for Peyton is 350 yards, 64% completion percentage, no turnovers, and a win. For any other QB in the league, including guys named Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees, those numbers are a good day. That is how much better Peyton is from the rest of the pack.
So, be careful when you say or think that such a game is "off" or "bad." Games like this build confidence. They test the spirit. As John Oehser stated so well in his recent Coffee With the Colts article:
But the overarching thought -- the one I kept going back to reflecting on the game afterward -- is that while the game will cause angst among fans, sometimes it's not bad to have a close game. or two. Or three. In 2005, the Colts won 13 consecutive games by seven or more points. That never had been done in the NFL, but I remember Tony Dungy saying the next season he liked it more when the Colts had a few close games, and as opposed to 2005 -- when the Colts lost in the Division Playoffs to Pittsburgh -- he believed they entered the 2006 postseason more playoff ready. That was the year they won Super Bowl XLI.
We fans are often a bit "Chicken Little" when things don't go well or how we think they should go. We freak out. We say stupid crap. We insult players. We demand someone get fired. But really, it is when things go wrong that you truly see what your football team is made of.
In the NFL, a team must have a consistent, pressure-themed defense if they want to win. Your defense must get after the QB, cause turnovers, and limit the opponent's scoring. This defense must also have the strength to step up if your team's offense fails. Bill Polian loves quoting Marv Levy on this all the time, but a defense must shine during games like the one against the 49ers, allowing the offense to fail at times. Often, during playoff football, offenses play rather poorly, forcing the defense to shoulder the load much of the game. Yesterday's game had very much a playoff feel, and the Colts were able to overcome.
For someone like me, I don't like getting caught up in all the craziness when fans see their team struggle a bit. Adversity and struggle are what make this league the great league it is. Great teams struggle against all manner of teams. Championship-caliber teams win those struggles.
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Lambasting the cheaters: More from Colts win over the 49ers
by BigBlueShoe on Nov 2, 2009 8:23 AM EST
in Analysis
365 comments
Well gosh, it looks Colts radio announcers Bob Lamey and Will Wolford weren't the only ones who caught the San Francisco 49ers cheating on Sunday. From Niners Insider, the San Francisco Chronicle's special section devoted to 49ers football, and their writer Kevin Lynch [emphasis mine]:
Colts Drive: Joseph Adai just threw a TD pass to Wayne. Great play by Wayne with a diving catch which looked good and the 49ers aren't challenging. Manning missed on the two-point conversion. Jeff Ulbrich made the trip. Nate Clements is out with a shoulder contusion. The last time they said shoulder contusion, it was Tony Pashos who's on injured reserve with broken scapula. The 49ers might have just faked a cramp by Parys Haralson to prevent being in the wrong defense
...
Colts drive: Another fake of a cramp, this time by veteran linebacker Takeo Spikes. Big pass play to Dallas Clark, 40-yarder. The Colts did the same thing that the Texans did last week on a 42-yard TD pass to Owen Daniels - play action with a throw across the field. This time Clark just beat Michael Lewis on man coverage I believe.
I wonder if some of the same people who were "disappointed" with me and others in this thread will saunter on over to Kevin Lynch's place and tell him he shouldn't write such things unless he has full, definitive proof... like, I guess, a signed confession from Mike Singletary, or a player acting as a "Deep Throat" informant, providing quotes from the early week meetings: "OK guys, if Peyton and their offense start getting on a roll, we want you to CHEAT!"
Honestly, folks. That's now two separate sources, both covering two different sides of the game (one the Colts announcers, the other a writer for the SF Chronicle) who saw the same thing: Cheating. If you need more proof than that, then I don't know what to tell you. Maybe you think the Earth is flat as well.
Mike Singletary is a cheater. Thousands of fans at Lucas Oil saw him cheat, and booed. Three members of the media are on record as seeing him do it. He did it. He tried to cheat to win a football game. Say that to yourself, and if you are STILL defending the actions of the 49ers head coach, then you are someone who lacks any kind of moral compass.
Obviously, if the "cramps" were real, then I will apologize to Singletary and the 49ers and take my lumps accordingly. However, the "cramps" didn't look real to me. They didn't look real to thousands of fans at The Luke. They didn't look real to Lamey and Wolford. They didn't look real to the SF Chronicle.
Here at Stampede Blue, we have no tolerance for cheating. None. And I defy anyone who says "It's part of the game." No, it isn't. People who cheat belittle and demean the game. Cheaters spit in the faces of John Unitas, Bart Starr, and the greats of the great. More importantly, we fans do not pay over $100 a seat, $30 for parking, and ungoldly amounts for hot dogs, popcorn, beer, and soda just so we can watch cheating.
We pay to watch football. REAL football. And real football does not involve cheating, like what we saw Singletary attempt Sunday.
Again, if you don't have the stomach to read this blog when we call a spade a spade, read something else. I'm serious. I am not someone who will hold your hand and softly explain why we chose to call an NFL head coach a "bum." If you don't get the reasons by now, I really can't help you. At this blog, we call it as we see it. We don't hold back, ESPECIALLY when cheating is involved. And since Kevin Lynch saw what Lamey and Wolford saw, 49ers fans can't simply dismiss the claim, saying "it's only the other side that's saying it." Hell, I heard even one commenter say that it wasn't Singletary who cheated, but it was likely the 49ers defensive line coach.
Really? I mean... honestly?
Make no mistake about it people, and loyal readers of this blog know this is true, if Jim Caldwell had tried to do what Singletary did during this game, I would call him a bum as well. I'd call my friends at West 56th Street and scream at them "WHEN DID IT BECOME OK TO HIRE BUMS AS THE HEAD COACH!"
Thankfully, Jim Caldwell is not a bum. He is someone who believes in the integrity of the game. Mike Singletary doesn't. Throw him in the same category as Bill Belichick, a man we Colts fans lambasted for years because he used to do the same cheap tactics with the New England Patriots. If Belichick was a cheater for doing that (and other things), then so is Singletary. If Belichick is a bum for instructing Willie McGinest to take a dive in the 2003 regular season game at Indy, then Mike Singletary is a bum for doing the same (or allowing the same) to happen yesterday with Takeo Spikes.
A spade is a spade.
Don't like it me writing that? Read something else. We call it as we see it here. If you'd prefer something else on the Internet that dodges or glances away from the truth, kindly venture to Google.com, type in "Colts blog," and have fun. I'm sure you'll find something that suits you. For everyone else here, we prefer our truth honest and without pretense. No sugar coating. No white washing. A spade is a spade.
And yes, Mike Singletary is indeed still a bum. Go Colts!
365 comments | 1 recs |
The WildColt: Should The Colts Try It To Makeup For Their Running Woes?
by KingRichard on Oct 31, 2009 10:31 AM EDT
in Analysis
46 comments
It wasn't that long ago that the Dolphins carved up our beloved defense with this offensive scheme. I personally thought it was cool to watch this thing in action even though they nearly beat the Colts using it. The effectiveness of it is almost mindblowing. Don't believe me? Here are the stats for the Dolphins in their first five games running the Wildcat courtesy Dave Hyde of SI.com:
As for the Dolphins, let's not rely on expert commentary. Let's talk cold, dry statistics. They've run 48 Wildcat plays in five games and average 6.6 yards per play. They average 4.7 yards a play out of their base offense.
That's 40 percent more yards per play out of the Wildcat.
The Wildcat makes traditional Power O running plays look like kids play.
Now, I'll be the first to admit that the last stat is a bit skewed. The Dolphins, outside of the Wildcat offense, are lacking in many areas. Their offensive yards per play statistic would probably be a lot better if Tedd Ginn knew how to catch a football. So obviously if the Dolphins were dynamic in any other way aside from the Wildcat it probably would appear to be as amazingly uber as it is. But I digress.
Regardless of the skewed stats, the Wildcat has proven to be one of the greatest running schemes this league has ever seen. Yes, even better than Denver's famed zone blocking scheme where even running backs like Joseph Addai could become a 1500+ yard rusher. What? You didn't actually think the Broncos were that good at picking running backs did you?
The question that should be asked is, why is the Wildcat so effective? More specifically, why are the Dolphins so damn good at running the Wildcat?
Explanation after the jump.
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