In Part 1 of my Super Bowl Preview, we looked at how the Colts and Saints fared against Common Opponents, and in Part 2 we looked at the 2009 Winning Stats for each team, and which ones will be key to winning.  Finally, in Part 3, we'll look how each team game-by-game this season, look at how consistent each team has been this year, and some trends for the Saints Offense, which don't paint a good picture for our friends from New Orleans.  Oh yeah, you'll get my prediction too.

Before we get to what I found, I'd like to link a couple things I won't be covering, but others have already:

• DZ over at 18to88 looked at how each team played on grass this season.  His conclusion?
  

  The bottom line is that unless the field is wet or poorly tended, I don't think the grass/turf factor will hurt either team.

• A lot has been made the past 2 weeks about Peyton Manning vs. Gregg Williams.  Luckily for us, DZ (again!) crunched the numbers, as well as Paul Kuharsky over at ESPN.  DZ thinks the Colts are in very good shape, and Paul thinks that Williams better have 3 completely different plans ready to go, so when Manning figures him out, he can change on the fly.  Good luck to you Mr. Williams.
• Football Outsiders gave some great insights into the Super Bowl in their preview.  The most interesting, and one they completely convinced me of, is this:
  

  Most teams leave their starting cornerbacks on specific sides of the field rather than moving them around so the better corner is covering the other team's top receiver, and the Saints are no different. Jabari Greer is generally playing on the left side, which is the offensive right. Offenses generally move receivers from side to side more than defenses move cornerbacks, but this is yet another way in which the Colts rarely vary their offensive game plan. 77 percent of passes to Wayne this season found him on the left side of the field. 86 percent of passes to Garcon found him on the right side. Unless somebody moves around on purpose, the Saints are going to end up with Greer on Garcon for most of the game. We're likely going to see coverage similar to the NFC Divisional Round game against Arizona, when Greer was often one-on-one against Steve Breaston while Tracy Porter and a safety (usually Roman Harper) doubled Larry Fitzgerald on the other side

  Greer on Garçon, and doubling Reggie Wayne is a very real possibility, and we should expect it.  That means big days for Dallas Clark and Austin Collie.  I don't think Manning cares who it is though.  He'll just find the open guy.

All right, follow me after the jump for my final analysis of the game...

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In Part 1 of our Super Bowl Statistical Preview, we looked at the Common Opponents between the Colts and Saints, and how each offense and defense fared against their six common opponents.  In part 2, let's look at each team's Winning Stats for the entire season, complete with NFL Ranks, to see how they match-up with each other.

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Super Bowl Week begins with the first of my 3 Part Preview, where I'll be looking at the Common Opponents between the Colts and Saints, and how they fared against them. 

As the week goes along, I'm guessing you'll see a lot of "experts" talk like the only common opponent between the two teams were the Patriots.  While they were the best team (unless you count the Jets) that both of them played, there were actually 6 common opponents between the two teams.  Take a look:

Before we get to the stats, a few other things that should be considered about these games:

• Both teams have played one common opponent in the Playoffs, so that doesn't skew the numbers any.
• Because of the Colts' Week 16 and 17 "rest", I've combined the Jets and Bills game into 1 full game, as the starters played for ~3 Quarters against the Jets, and ~1 Quarter against the Bills.  Doing this makes the number of games played against each identical.  Also by doing this, it's kind of like the final 3 quarters for the Bills is being replaced by the Jets in Week 16.  While my analysis will not take this into count, keep it in the back of your mind as a "tie-breaker" so to speak.
• When the Colts played the Dolphins in Week 2, Chad Pennington was the starter.  When the Saints played them, Chad Henne was the QB, making his 3rd career start.  It's fair to say that Pennington is/was a better player at this point in their careers.

Ok, let's see how the two teams matched up against these 6 common opponents...

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So the dueling analysis, trashtalk and trolling is coming to a close with everything to be decided on the field in less than 24 hours. Let the pregame re-hashing of the last week of analysis and the pre-game jitters begin!

Predictions? Last minute concerns? I'll kick things off with mine below the jump

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There's been a lot of talk this week about karma, confidence (watch the video and facepalm when Bruschi talks), and momentum, which are the "intangibles" that some people view as being important.  I, however, believe talent, scheme, and statistics tell a much clearer story than these immeasurable factors.  So let's break down how talent, scheme, and statistics will tell the story of the AFC Championship.

First, before I get to the Winning Stats, I want to focus on "Revis Island."  Here's the list of WR who have not fared well against Darelle Revis this season:

An impressive list of receivers, including the abbreviated game against Reggie Wayne.  Wayne had him beat on a couple other throws, but couldn't connect with Manning.  Last night on NFL Live, they were talking about the Wayne vs. Revis matchup, and they flashed this stat up on the screen about Peyton Manning throwing to Wayne vs. Other Receivers:

You should remember that Wayne had, at a minimum, the best cover CB from each and every team playing on him, if not double teamed, so the numbers make sense.  The first game against the Jets, Manning picked on Lito Sheppard, throwing to Austin Collie for 94 yards, and Pierre Garçon didn't even play due to injury.  Even if Revis can slow down Wayne (who never had less than 3 catches in a game this year), I fully expect the other receivers to step up, and Manning has been great when throwing to the other receivers this season.

Follow me for keys to the game and my prediction...

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Throughout the season we looked at the Winning Stats, and how much each stat led to wins during the Regular Season.  I also looked at recent ('01-'08) playoff history, to see how these stats translated to playoff wins.  Now, it's time to put the metal to the road, and show just how the Colts will beat the Ravens.

First, I'll start with the Week 11 matchup between the Colts and Ravens, and what happened during the 17-15 Colts victory.  Here's what I got out of that game:

• The Colts led the league that week in Yds/Drive, at over 41 yards/drive.  That is higher than the Colts averaged during the Regular Season, and the Colts led the league in that too.
• The Colts dominated in both 3rd/4th Down % and Red Zone Efficiency, which were keys to the win.
• The Colts did a great job shutting down the Ravens run game, holding them to a RB Success Rate of 32.3%, and a YPC of 3.16. 
  

Tables and Statistical Keys after the jump...

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Roughly one month ago, the Colts played their last "meaningful" game of the 2009 regular season. Two games, and one controversial third quarter decision later, we are neck deep in the 2009 NFL playoffs.

After an impressive butt-whoppin' of the Patriots in Foxboro, the Ravens come to Indianapolis to take on the team that the city of Baltimore once called theirs. Obviously, there is tremendous history between these two clubs and these two cities. Traditionally, both fanbases have detested one another. For Ravens fans, the residents of Indy stole their team in 1984. For Indy Colts fans, Baltimorians need to get over something that happened over twenty-five years ago.

Yet, despite the animosity and the bitterness between the fans, there is a great deal of respect and admiration between the players and the coaches of these respective franchises. There is also a great deal of familiarity.

• Reggie Wayne and Ed Reed are best friends, even though Ed Reed killed Reggie's pet snake back in college.
• Ravens coach John Harbaugh is the older brother of one-time Colts legend Jim Harbaugh.
• Current Colts kicker Matt Stover made his storied career with the Ravens.

Since 2002, these teams have played each other on a pretty consistent basis even though both teams do not reside in the same division. And since 2002, the Colts have dominated the Ravens to the tune of an 8-0 record against them, including a very memorable playoff game during the 2006 season at Baltimore.

However, this Ravens team in 2009 is, in my opinion, better than the 2006 team. In addition, this 2009 Ravens team bare a scary resemblance to the 2005 Steelers team that entered the the playoffs as the #6 seed and defeated the #1 seeded Colts at the RCA Dome in a game that featured a famous Jerome Bettis fumble, a Ben Roethlisberger tackle, and a Mike Vanderjagt missed field goal. To this day, that playoff loss stings more than any other even though the opponent was obviously worthy enough to beat the Colts that year (the 2005 Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl).

18to88 and John Oehser have written about the similarities between the 2005 Steelers and 2009 Ravens in greater detail.

Now, four years later, the 2009 Ravens come to Luke Oil Stadium with the same swagger, confidence, and talent that the 2005 Steelers had. However, as Raheem Brock had the decency to Tweet about recently (again Raheem, your Tweets are absolute gold my friend!), one of the reasons the Colts lost the 2005 playoff game was that some of their own players weren't doing their job:

When we lost to the steelers it was because there were guys on the defense that were doin wut they wanted to and not playn the defense!

...

We got rid of those guys!

Bold statement by Raheem.

Since 2005, gone are Colts starters Mike Doss, Nick Harper, Corey Simon, Cato June, David Thornton, Jason David, and Montae Reagor. The current starters for these players respective positions are Antoine Bethea, Antonio Johnson, Clint Session, Philip Wheeler, Jerraud Powers, and Daniel Muir. Like in 2005, the 2009 Colts clinched their playoff seed early and rested starters down the stretch. Unlike 2005, the horrible distraction of James Dungy's suicide is not hovering over the 2009 team, though it is understandable if players like Pierre Garçon have their minds on family and friends in Haiti.

However this game plays out, while the 2009 Ravens seem to reflect the 2005 Steelers, the 2009 Colts are certainly not the 2005 Colts. This Colts team seems more focused and prepared heading into what should be a titanic clash with their rivals, the Ravens.

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Week 14 is upon us, and the Colts take on my hometown team, the Broncos this Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.  I want to start by looking at the (recent) history with the Broncos, and the almost complete domination by Peyton Manning and the Colts:

• Throwing out the meaningless Week 17 game in 2004, the Broncos have beaten the Colts once in 7 games since 2002.  I remember that game well too, as I was in the 14th row.  Brackett had a Pick-6 in the first quarter, and it was all downhill from there.  It was one of the rare games Manning and the Colts just forgot to show up (like the Packers game last season).
• Two of the Colt wins came in the playoffs, and they were two of Manning's greatest games ever:  2003 where Manning won his first career playoff game with a Perfect Passer Rating, and a year later when the Colts were up 35-3 at half, and Manning had 361 passing in the first half.
• The last matchup between the two teams was in 2007, a 38-20 win by the Colts.  Former Bronco head coach Mike Shanahan decided he couldn't beat the Colts with his starters, so he benched them.  BBS says it better than me:
  

  Mike Shanahan was so terrified by what Manning would do to it that he junked his entire defensive scheme for the 2007 regular season game against the Colts and deployed a specific scheme just to beat Indy. He benched his starting DTs, inserted smaller but faster DTs, and hoped they'd be able to keep up with Indy's No-Huddle offense.

Enough about the history, let's get to 2009...

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