Game Recaps
Quick Recap: Colts 31-Cardinals 10
by BigBlueShoe on Sep 27, 2009 11:34 PM EDT
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This was a case of one team simply out classing another. This is not a swipe or a knock on the Cardinals. They are not a crappy team. They'd surrendered an average of 56 rushing yards prior to this game. They have an impressive passing attack. They have an excellent kicker.
But they went up against a Colts team that has re-discovered the big play.
The Colts ranked up over 500 yards of offense on the Cardinals, including over 120 yards rushing. Defensively, the Colts held the Cards to 24 total yards rushing and only 2.2 yards a carry. They harassed Kurt Warner all night, forcing the Cardinals into three turnovers.
No word yet on Dwight Freeney's leg injury. He walked off the field and into the locker room and seemed to be OK. We will see if everything is all right with Freeney, who dominated Arizona's tackles all night.
This was a dominant performance by the Colts in primetime, which is business as usual. Enjoy the win.
Go Colts!
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Week 2 Review - Inside the Numbers
by mgrex03 on Sep 23, 2009 1:13 AM EDT
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Week 2 ended with a bang, and a very good night for us Colts fans. It was a night of superlatives, and one for the history books. Here is what Elias had to say after the game (via ESPN):
- A Time of Possession of 14:53 is the lowest amount for a winning team since the NFL starting tracking the stat in the 1970's.
- Dallas Clark's 183 yards receiving is the 3rd highest by a WR in a game from Peyton Manning. The two guys you'd expect to head this list (Harrison & Wayne) are first and second.
- As BBS pointed out already, 3 teams (Cowboys, Titans, Dolphins) lost while rushing for over 200 yards. It's only happened once where 3 teams lost while rushing for over 200 yards in one week, which was Week 16 of 1978. Last season, teams who rushed for 200 yards were 36-2.
- The Dolphins had 15 third-down conversions on Monday, the most by any team since the Colts had 15 in a game against the Broncos in 2002.
This was also the 37th Game Winning drive for Manning. He was so good at it, it only took 32 seconds. This also was win #119 for Manning, passing Johnny Unitas for most in franchise history for a QB. I'm not nearly old enough to know just how good Unitas was, but I'm rather biased with who I think is better. Most others I heard this morning agree with me.
The most amazing stat, in my opinion, from Monday night was that the Colts averaged 10.2 Yards / Play on Monday night, which is the best in the NFL at least since 1996. Let that sink in for a second... The Colts averaged a First Down on EVERY PLAY. The previous high? 10.02 by the Packers in 1997, in a game they lost to the Colts.
After the jump you'll see both last week's stats and rankings, but a season total, with ranks. I'll just say Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt is a pretty good indication of winning so far. You can also sort the Win % total in the season table, to see which stats are the best so far this season.
14 comments | 4 recs |
Recap: Colts 27-Dolphins 23
by BigBlueShoe on Sep 22, 2009 8:53 AM EDT
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Lots of people make a big deal out of three statistics: Time of possession, running the ball, and stopping the run. Pundits, coaches, and fans alike talk endlessly about the need to control all three, often saying they are vital to any team winning a football game. But, as we have often said here in the past, these three statistics are highly over-rated.
This is a throwing league. If you can throw the ball and stop the throw, you will win. It's that simple.
Last night's game, coupled with the NY Giants beating the Dallas Cowboys the night before, prove that running the ball is a highly over-rated and over-valued statistic. You must throw the ball to score and win in this league.
Now, before I go into the details and who-done-whats of this wild and entertaining game at Landshark Stadium in Miami, let me clarify why throwing the ball and stopping the pass are more important than running the ball and stopping the run. This is a league built around quarterbacks and scoring TDs. Rules like enforced illegal contact, pass interference, and new low hit rules to protect the QB (aka, the "Brady rule") are all designed to make it easier, safer, and more entertaining to throw the ball than to run it. As ESPN's Ron Jaworski astutely says during just about every Monday Night Football telecast, Points come out of the passing game. And if you cannot score throwing it in this league, especially in the red zone, you are going to lose football games.
For the Dolphins last night, and the Cowboys the night before, both teams ran for well over 200 yards. They used a combination of both power and finesse to control the line of scrimmage. In the case of the Cowboys v. Giants, NY was unable to get a consistent running game going themselves, and running the ball is their bread and butter. They managed just 3.7 yards rushing to 8.7 for the Cowboys. The difference in the ball game was the net yards per passing play. The Giants averaged 8.7 yards a pass; the Cowboys 4.4, and several costly turnovers from QB Tony Romo. By the way, turnovers factor into yards per completion in passing statistics.
When you look at this stat in the Colts v. Dolphins contest, the average yards per pass jumps out at you like a land-walking shark with a laser cannon strapped to his back. Indy averaged 12.3 yards per pass; Miami a measly 4.7.
I'll type it one for time, and even throw some bold in just to be obnoxious: Running the ball is over-rated.
You must throw the ball effectively in this league to win. Anyone who says otherwise simply does not understand modern football. More breakdown after the jump.
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Quick Recap: Colts 27-Dolphins 23
by BigBlueShoe on Sep 21, 2009 11:38 PM EDT
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Let this be a lesson to you all: Running the ball and stopping the run are SECOND to throwing the ball, and stopping the throw. Run your wildcat, your draw, your runs up the middle. Run them all you want. It is all about being efficient with the football when it matters most. It is all about THROWING. THE. FOOTBALL. in this league. Time of possession is over-rated. Running the ball is over-rated. This is a league built on throwing and stopping the throw. Period.
When it counted. When it mattered most; the Colts came up big. Enjoy your 2-0 start.
Go Colts!
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Week 1 Review - Inside the Numbers
by mgrex03 on Sep 15, 2009 1:36 PM EDT
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Week 1 is in the books, and Colts Homer and shake n bake both had great write-ups recapping the game. I'd like to dive a little deeper into the numbers, and see just how well/poorly the Colts played, both on offense and defense.
First off I wanted to bring up some Colts - Jaguars specific stats:
- Time of Possession was the 4th best since they became division rivals. 33:56 is a far cry from 18:25, which was last year's TOP in Week 3. It was a pleasant surprise to finally control the clock.
- Defensively, the Colts only surrendered 12 First Downs, lowest in series history. Great work by the defense.
- The Colts defense also forced 4 Three and Outs, tied for most in series history. Only 1 game last year saw the defense force more Three and Outs (Baltimore).
Also, for the first time since his rookie year, Peyton threw for 300 yards in a season opener. His rookie debut of 302 yards passing is best in the NFL, with Mark Sanchez's 272 yards on Sunday being the 2nd best of all time.
Throughout the summer, we looked at a myriad of statistics, to find out which ones lead to wins, and which ones don't. I'd like to look back at how the Colts did in Week 1, in relation to the rest of the league. I'll also show you in which stats did the Offense and Defense both perform Above Average, and what the record was in the league this week when both sides of the ball are Above Average. Results after the jump.
41 comments | 4 recs |
Colts v. Jaguars Recap: One Week In, Already On Top
by Colts Homer on Sep 13, 2009 10:30 PM EDT
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It is only Week One and the Colts have the lead in the AFC South. The Colts beat the Jaguars, the Titans lose in overtime to the defending champion Steelers and the Texans embarrass themselves against the Jets. The Colts have a game up on everyone which is a nice luxury. You can look at it as next week is the start of the season and the Colts were spotted a game. It is a very good thing that everyone else is 0-1.
The Colts had what appeared to be a normal first game of the season. Some places looked rusty but some looked very impressive. It was 14-12, but the Colts really did outplay the Jaguars by more than that. An interception at the goal line cost the Colts at least 3 points and a rare Addai fumble in Colts territory also cost the team some points. However, unless if there is some rule change that I am blissfully unaware of, there are no such thing as style points. The Colts weren't pretty, but they are 1-0, which I feel is more important.
What I Liked
The short yardage running game with Addai. There are 3 plays I look at when I analyze how Addai did in short yardage situations in this game. Two of his carries were on a third and short in Colts territory that he showed amazing speed on and got within the five. One of those runs was followed by the Manning interception, but the other was followed by an Addai touchdown. Addai had a good game in short yardage.
The decision to start Charlie Johnson over Tony Ugoh. I was tough on Johnson in the preseason, but he didn't play well in the preseason. Today he played great. He gave up no sacks. Most of the pressure from the Jaguars came from the right side of the line with Reggie Hayward. The biggest hit from Manning on the left side was on his touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne. Johnson also did well in the running game. Addai's good short yardage carries went to the left side. Johnson did a fantastic job in shutting down Derrick Harvey. Let's see how he does next week against Joey Porter next week. If he can keep Porter from getting a sack, I may have to believe that Johnson is an acceptable left tackle in the National Football League.
Larry Coyer. This may fall under love. Larry Coyer's spin on the Tampa-2 is a thing of beauty. The Colts held Maurice Jones-Drew to 97 rushing yards and they actually got off of the field. Believe it or not, the Colts won the possession battle today. It is amazing. Don't say it is because of the changes in players. Besides Jerraud Powers, all of the starters were starters on the team last year at some point. The starting defensive tackles were Antonio Johnson and Eric Foster, the two best defensive tackles from the team last season. The players were the same. It was the defensive coordinator that was the change. This great performance by the defense was because of the change of defensive coordinator. They went from a bad defensive coordinator who I believe never went to a practice and worked with a team to someone who is looking like the biggest addition to the team this offseason.
Click on the little link below this to read what I didn't like and a position-by-position breakdown of the game.
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Colts v. Lions Preseason Review: Odd Flashbacks
by Colts Homer on Aug 29, 2009 10:30 PM EDT
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Was I the only one who had flashbacks to last season during this game? The way the Lions controlled the clock, the stuffed runs, the way Peyton had to carry the team. It was scary. Thankfully it is just the preseason and this team should look great in the regular season. If they would lose to the Lions in the regular season I would freak out. I think the Lions are definitely improved and could have a very good offense with Stafford, Jones and Johnson. Their defensive line isn't very good though. In fact, it's pretty terrible. Their defense could keep them from not having a top 5 pick this year. Here are some of my thoughts on the game.
~Peyton Manning looked like I expect him to in the regular season. I love to see Peyton take the Colts down the field to score. It is one of those special things in life.
~I have been very harsh to Curtis Painter. The "Out with the old, in with the new" speak around here has irritated me. Sorgi is a good backup QB and it seems like people are trying to force him out for the new guy. However, Painter was very good today. He made some great throws. Obviously the interception was not his fault. It showed why the Colts drafted him. I still don't see him making the 53 man roster though.
~The running game wasn't good today. It looked like the right side of the line was letting the Lions get to the runner right at the line of scrimmage. Although Charlie Johnson is starting at left tackle, I'm more worried about the left side of the line. Mike Pollak really needs to have a good year or else he will lose his starting job. It's that simple. Charlie Johnson and Jamey Richard both can be very good guards, and Pollak needs to earn his spot.
~John Matthews sucks. He is disgracing the holy number 83. Any number that graced the great Brandon Stokley should only be worn by players who can actually catch a football. I propose that John Matthews is cut and Austin Collie takes the number 83. The number 83 goes to players I like. I do not like Matthews. I like Collie. My favorite Colt ever cannot have his number be worn by someone who cost the Colts a game.
~The pass blocking was very good today for the most part. I'd say it was better than the first two games. The Lions only had two sacks. One was on a great defensive play by Julian Peterson on a stunt blitz. No one was going to stop that. Charlie Johnson looked pretty good today as did Jamey Richard and Kyle DeVan.
~No chance Steve Justice earns a spot on the 53 man roster. DeVan was very good today and of course Jamey Richard and Mike Pollak could play center if necessary. Justice was terrible last year and was a big time miss by Polian.
~I didn't notice Ugoh in this game. I can't say if he played good or bad. Of course not noticing him probably means that he played okay but not great or not terrible. I still want him starting at left tackle. There is no need to leave that kind of talent on the bench to prove a point or what not. If they really wanted to push Ugoh they should have drafted a left tackle early. Good thing the 2010 draft looks like it is loaded at offensive tackle.
~Marcus Howard is fast. His sack on Matt Stafford looks like something he would do to Colt Brennan. If Colt Brennan is ever committed it would definitely be because of Marcus Howard. I wish the 'Skins and the Colts would play in the preseason again.
~Overall the defensive tackles played pretty well. I still think Fili Moala is going to be a great pro. He just needs a little more strength. His burst off of the line is phenomenal and he draws double teams. I would not be opposed to playing him as a nose tackle because of his ability to draw double teams. I'm looking forward to seeing him progress.
~Ed Johnson dressed but didn't play. I firmly believe that it was to prepare for the Jacksonville game. He's suspended for it, so why play him? It's obvious that the Colts couldn't give a crap about preseason. Muir and Antonio Johnson will be the starting defensive tackles for Week One with Moala and Eric Foster getting a lot of playing time. Adrian Grady and Terrance Taylor will also be on the roster. So many defensive tackles, too little roster spaces.
~Why did they re-sign Freddy Keiaho? He can't play middle linebacker as we saw today. It's pretty clear that Ramon Humber and Mike Tauiliili are better players. Tauiliiiiiiili played great today. His goal line stops were things of beauty. To be honest I think this is more of a competition between Humber and the guy with 50 "i"s in his name with the "loser" going on the practice squad. These guys appear to be future Polian gems.
~Jamie Silva is good. He's a mad man out there. He always goes to jack players up. I wouldn't feel great about that when it is Maurice Jones-Drew coming at him, but it is very fun to watch. He's got to make the final roster, doesn't he? I would be very surprised if he got cut. I would much rather see him on the roster over Matt Giordano.
~Jerraud Powers was a nice find by Polian. I'd say that Powers was the most criticized pick on draft day. He was taken a couple of rounds higher than he was projected, but it was worth it if someone else was going to take him. I'm not a fan of small corners and I never will be, but Powers can be the exception to the "Small corners aren't ideal in the Cover-2" rule. Tim Jennings shouldn't make the roster if you ask me. Watching him go up against Calvin Johnson was comical. Tim Jennings looked like he is 16 inches shorter than Megatron Johnson.
~I'm almost certain that Pat McAfee could punt the ball over the Cowboys video board. He looks like a future Pro Bowl punter. He is going to have a great net punting average.
~The return game isn't going to be very good at all. Hopefully they will cover it in the 2010 draft (Perrish Cox!)
New roster prediction after the jump.
48 comments | 1 recs
2009 NFL Pre-Season: Lions 18-Colts 17
by BigBlueShoe on Aug 29, 2009 3:58 PM EDT
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65 comments
Unlike third pre-season games of the past, this one is much harder to analyze. Even though players like Ed Johnson and Robert Mathis were dressed and could have played, they didn't. Dwight Freeney, Antonio Johnson, and Antoine Bethea played only a few snaps here and there. So, if the game was to judge how starters looked in a "tune-up," then this game didn't provide that.
I mean, do I need to say it? The Colts do not care about pre-season.
What the game did show was a BAD Colts team in the first half. The Lions were consistently placed in 3rd and long situations only to convert the down because of piss poor tackling. Also, the running game and pass protection in the first half was atrocious. The Colts came out in the second half and played much better. Peyton Manning lead them down the field for two TDs today; one was a strike to Dallas Clark, the other a goal-line run by Donald Brown.
The defense in the second half also stiffened with two impressive short yardage stops; one was on the goal line. I'm also very impressed with Curtis Painter. He's looked better this pre-season than Jim Sorgi has ever looked in any pre-season.
Finally, I know this is a shocker, but WR John Matthews is gonna get cut. He dropped two big passes with one deflecting off him and into the hands of a Detroit defender. The Lions took that late turnover and converted it into the (eventual) game-winning TD.
Other quick observations: Not major injuries to either team, so far; Jerraud Powers is better than Tim Jennings; Dante Hughes is in danger of getting cut; Pierre Garcon showed his speed today; Pat McAfee is a damn good punter.
Chit-chat away regarding the game here. We had over 700 comments for this pre-season game. Again, a pre-season game, and over 700 comments! I friggin love you people! Go Colts!
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