Remember back 2 months ago when I asked for some help with a class project?  After following the exact same path as before, I procrastinated my way into a couple of late nights this week to complete my project.  This is definitely a first cut at this, with many improvements to be made before the season starts.  I'll give you a few highlights of my findings, with a full report this weekend, after I've actually written my report for class.

• I used 2003-2006 stats as the basis of my model.  I then predicted 2007 based on probabilities found in the previous 4 years.
• I used an average of the previous 7 weeks data to estimate what each team would do the next week.  Anything beyond 7 weeks was not significant.
• I used Home/Away, Time of Year, Day of Week, and Opponent Group (Division, Conference, Non-Conference) as my Non-Mathematical stats.   I may try to incorporate weather as well, but did not have time, and only found a site with the information a few days ago.

Here's what I found out from 2007:

• The Predictor was right 56% of the time, which is great for an initial stab at this.  Anything over 50% was going to be a victory for me.  I'll have all summer to tweak and make it better.
• It got even better once we exclusively used stats from 2007 (week 7 on).  It was correct 62% of the time at the end of the year.
• I tested out 4 teams individually:
  • Colts:  7-9  (Lots of room for improvement)
    
  • Redskins: 11-5 (Only predicted against them 4 times)
  • Giants: 10-6 (Started 1-5, finished 9-1)
  • Patriots: 12-4 (Picked the Colts to beat them, as they should have)
• The four factors that caused the probability of winning to move the most:
  • Rushing Attempts
  • Rushing Yards
  • Turnovers
  • Time of Possession

Again, I haven't written up the full report yet, which is the project for tomorrow night.  If anyone is interesting in reading it, just shoot me an email.  As I keep updating it throughout the summer, I'll keep you posted on how it is improving.  My goal is 70% before the season starts.

From NFL.com:

NFL minicamp schedule
Team	Dates
Arizona Cardinals	May 2-4
Atlanta Falcons	May 10-12; June 23-25 (voluntary)
Baltimore Ravens	May 1-3 (voluntary); May 9-11
Buffalo Bills	May 2-4 (rookies); June 11-13
Carolina Panthers	May 2-4
Chicago Bears	May 2-4 (rookies); May 30-June 1
Cincinnati Bengals	May 2-4 (rookies); June 12-14
Cleveland Browns	May 2-4 (rookies); June 10-12
Dallas Cowboys	May 2-4 (rookies); June 17-19
Denver Broncos	June 11-13
Detroit Lions	May 2-4 (rookies); May 20-22
Green Bay Packers	May 2-4 (rookies); June 17-19
Houston Texans	May 9-11
Indianapolis Colts	May 2-4 (rookies); May 16-18
Jacksonville Jaguars	June 6-7
Kansas City Chiefs	May 2-3 (rookies); June 6-8
Miami Dolphins	May 2-4 (rookies); May 23-25 (voluntary); June 6-8
Minnesota Vikings	May 2-4 (rookies); June 6-8
New England Patriots	May 2-4 (rookies); June 6-8
New Orleans Saints	May 9-11 (rookies); May 30-June 1
New York Giants	May 9-11 (rookies); June 11-13
New York Jets	May 2-4 (rookies); June 5-7
Oakland Raiders	May 9-11 (rookies); June 3-5
Philadelphia Eagles	May 3-5
Pittsburgh Steelers	May 2-4
St. Louis Rams	May 9-11
San Diego Chargers	May 2-4
San Francisco 49ers	May 2-4
Seattle Seahawks	May 2-4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	May 2-4 (rookies); June 17-19
Tennessee Titans	May 2-3 (rookies)
Washington Redskins	May 2-4

Still no photos up yet from Colts rookie camp this past weekend. As soon as we see them, we'll either link to them or post them. The reason why NFL.com has photos from San Diego's camp or Washington's camp is because they had their mandatory mini-camp this past weekend.

I was visiting a friend this weekend on a college campus, and we decided on a nice little diner right on the edge of campus.  We walk in, completely oblivious to our surroundings.  We sat down, and I'm looking 2 tables down, and I think I recognize the guy sitting, looking back at us:  A.J. Hawk of the Green Bay Packers.  I'm trying not to stare, but I'm really thinking that it is him.  I look at the girl next to him, and it's his wife, Laura.  Who knew we'd randomly run into a Top 5 draft pick at a little diner?

You are probably wondering why I knew his wife's name is Laura.  In fact, I know it is Laura, because of her famous brother, and fellow Notre Dame graduate, Brady Quinn.  You may remember the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, where Brent Musberger had to have mentioned about 800 times how AJ Hawk was dating Brady Quinn's sister, and she wore the half and half jersey to the game (She, unfortunately, did not have that on today).

 There was another guy, with his back to us, sitting at the table with them, but he didn't look nearly as big as Hawk.  I kept asking myself how I walked into this restaurant, most likely staring at him, but not recognizing the most famous player at ND while I was at school.  Sure enough, when they got up to leave, there was the former Irish QB.  The guy is huge.  I didn't want to be "that guy," so I didn't introduce myself.  It's still cool to unexpectedly see a couple guys making multi-millions about 20 feet away.

The Oakland Raiders, despite having proven veteran RB Justin Fargas, promising youngest Michael Bush, and playoff veteran Dominic Rhodes decided to (rather stupidly) draft Arkansas RB Darren McFadden on Saturday. This was stupid for them because DT Glenn Dorsey went to their hated rivals, the Chiefs, with the next pick.

However, for us Colts fans, it might have been a blessing, because today Oakland cut Dom Rhodes. When Rhodes was with Indy in 2006, he was paired with then-rookie Joseph Addai and the two formed a formidable RB duo. Rhodes rushed for over 100 yards and a TD in Super Bowl 41 that season.

Since Kenton Keith seems like an idiot (and he can't catch either), Stampede Blue gives its full endorsement that Mr. Polian bring Dom back to where he belongs: Wearing the blue shoe.

According to Michael David Smith of AOL Fanhouse:

The Miami Dolphins have agreed to a contract with Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long and will sign him to a contract with $30 million guaranteed, multiple media outlets are reporting.

I don't think many saw this coming. The consensus seemed to be that Chris Long from Virginia would go #1, but I guess Bill Parcells feels Jake Long can lock down the LT spot for the Dolphins for years to come.

Obviously, this completely changes the draft. Look for teams to try and trade out of the top 10.

Steve McNair retired from the NFL today. There is a 1pm press conference scheduled. We wish Steve well in this next stage of his life, but we still consider him one of the most over-hyped football players of his generation.

McNair got the nickname "McHurt" from Colts fans because it always seemed that he was injured and that when he played on Sunday it was because of his "amazing" powers to tolerate pain and be "tough." The reality is McNair was a lazy player who did not condition himself well in the off-seasons and, as a consequence, got hurt A LOT when he played on Sundays. Here is CBS' Pete Prisco discussing McNair some time ago:

McNair's co-MVP award, which he shared with Peyton Manning in 2003, was a sham and a farce. Peyton should have been the lone recipient of that award that year, especially considering his Colts swept the Titans that season and won the AFC South. I recall several MVP voters later stating they wished they'd voted for Peyton over McNair. Some even admitted that they voted for McNair over Peyton because they felt Peyton couldn't "win big games."

Again, further proof that our national sports press corps is completely and utterly clueless.

For the first portion of his career, McNair tormented the Colts not necessarily because he was good (he wasn't) but because the teams he was on were better. When the Titans shifted more towards throwing the ball, that is about the time Indy started owning the Titans.

From a personal stand point, I'm glad McNair is retired because it was obvious he was done. I don't want lingering injury to last throughout the rest of his life. From a football stand point, McNair was highly over-rated and waaaaaaaaay over-hyped. If anyone suggests HoF for this guy, they will get a swift backhand from me (and just about everyone else). Yes, that includes you Gus Johnson.

McNair finishes his career with 31,304 yards, 174 TDs, and 119 INTs. Check out Music City Miracles and Baltimore Beatdown for more posts on McNair's retirement.

Update [2008-4-17 18:24:18 by BigBlueShoe]: There were some comments in the post that were deleted because they were racially insensitive. My apologies to anyone offended. I personally will not stand for anyone who makes the suggestion (let alone flat out states) that my opinions of Steve McNair or any minority player are racially motivated or biased. You can disagree with me all you want. I encourage you to disagree. But, in order to belittle my argument, if you call me, or anyone else here, a racist because we don't think McNair, or Vince Young, or Michael Vick are good players because they are African Americans, that is the fast track to Bansville; Population: Arrogant morons who want to dismiss an opinion by implying a racist agenda where non exists.

Again, apologies to anyone offended by some of the contributors comments others made in this thread.

Driving into work this morning, I was listening to Mike and Mike, and Trey Wingo was hosting in place of Golic. Amidst all of the Masters talk, they had a quick, 5 minute blurb talking about the NFL, since Wingo is the host of NFL Live on the Worldwide Leader. He was making two arguments, and, I have to say, I agree with both of them.

His first argument is that there should be a rookie salary structure, similar to the one used by the NBA. Here are the salaries for the 2008 Draft. Teams can't get yanked around by agents, or by the players. They know, up front, how much each player will make, if they are a first round draft pick. The NFL should have adopted this years ago. Our own GM Bill Polian is very much behind this idea, and he sums up my opinion much better than I ever could:

While having the #1 pick in the draft means you had an absolutely awful year, it should always be a good thing to have that pick, and many teams should be looking to trade into that pick to get the best player available. This year, however, is the complete opposite. Miami has so many holes to fill, it would make sense for them to trade out of the pick, and pick up 2-3 picks for their #1. However, nobody wants to touch their pick with a 10 foot pole, which is kind of sad. The only time now teams want to trade up for the #1 pick is for that sure-fire, franchise quarterback, like Michael Vick, or Tim Couch, or Alex Smith (the jury's still out, but it doesn't look like a favorable ruling is coming)...

His second point, which I'm guessing many people will disagree with, is that the NFL no longer needs the salary cap to succeed. As my favorite team is one of the smaller markets in the NFL, I should be up in arms about this, how it will hurt the competitive balance, etc. Wingo made a very good point about revenue sharing: Every game is televised on network television, or on ESPN, and the television deal is for the entire NFL, not each individual team. Each team shares the TV money equally, so there is no advantage to being the Giants with a huge market, or the Colts with a small market.

This is spot on, and my argument for getting rid of the salary cap becomes null and void if the TV deal goes away. A team cannot go out on its own, create its own TV network, and decide it will only broadcast their games on this new network. This occurs in baseball, with the main culprits being the Yankees and Mets.

Speaking of baseball, this brings me to my next point: Baseball has no salary cap, and over the past 8 seasons, there have been 7 different World Series winners. While the Yankees have had the highest payroll 12 of the past 13 seasons (bet you can't guess which team had a higher one in that span), they didn't start seriously outspending the rest of the league until 2001. They have won the World Series 0 times since then. Here's a table of World Series winner, payroll, rank of payroll, and highest payroll team in the league:

Year	Champ	Payroll	Rank	Highest	Payroll
2000	Yankees	$92,938,260	1	Yankees	$92,938,260
2001	Diamondbacks	$85,247,999	8	Yankees	$112,287,143
2002	Angels	$61,721,667	15	Yankees	$125,928,583
2003	Marlins	$48,750,000	25	Yankees	$152,749,814
2004	Red Sox	$127,298,500	2	Yankees	$184,193,950
2005	White Sox	$75,178,000	13	Yankees	$208,306,817
2006	Cardinals	$88,891,371	11	Yankees	$194,663,079
2007	Red Sox	$143,026,214	2	Yankees	$189,639,045

Obviously, the NFL is not MLB, but it can be shown that in another major sport, without a salary cap, parity can still occur. By far, the two biggest proponents of abolishing the salary cap would be Jerry Jones and Daniel Snyder. Jones had much success winning Super Bowls without a salary cap, and hasn't won a playoff game since 1995. Snyder likes to play fantasy football with his money, and has not been very good at talent selection via free agency.

What would the differentiating factors be without a salary cap?

• Stadium attendance. I think this is a non-factor. Just about every team sells out every game, save some of the awful teams towards the end of the year. Green Bay is by far the smallest market, and I wouldn't get a chance at season tickets until I'm at least 65 years old, because the wait list is so long. The revenue they make on gameday will not change regardless of a salary cap or not.
• Merchandise. This definitely can be a separator, but not necessarily. Manning's jersey, at one time, was the best selling one in the NFL. It is #4 right now, according to this article by CNBC. Of the top 20 best-sellers, only 3 have played for more than 1 team, and that includes Brett Favre. The Colts have 2 players in the top 20 (Sanders). There is obviously much more merchandise than jerseys, and a team in a bigger city should, in theory, have more fans buying more things. I don't see this much more than a slight advantage to big market teams. The Packers and Steelers seem to have pretty good followings for not being large cities.
• Owner. This is, by far, the biggest differentiator. But think about it for a second. The owner is just 1 person (or sometimes 2 or 3 or a range of investors). What if (completely hypothetical, as I don't see the Irsay's selling anytime soon) Mark Cuban decided he wanted to buy the Colts. He'd spend just like Jerry Jones or Daniel Snyder. If the owner wants to spend his money on players, he can, no matter the size of the market he's in. Chicago is the second biggest market in the NFL. The McCaskey family does not like to spend money. If the salary cap went away, they still wouldn't spend money, even though they are rolling in money hand over fist. What if an owner walks in and says "We are going to run this like a non-profit; Every dime we make will be spent on the franchise. Our payroll will be second-to-none." Will this happen, probably not. Could it happen, certainly.

Even though I'd be ok without a salary cap, I don't see it going away anytime soon. I would think the majority of the owners want it, so they don't have to be ridiculed by their respective fan bases to spend money on talent. The rookie salary cap should, and I think will, be in place within the next 2 years. It is in the best interest of the NFL, and certainly in the best interest of all the veteran players in the NFL, who work their tail off, then get cut in training camp because they gave $30 million to a rookie who has never played a snap in the NFL.

TheSportsGuru did an hour long interview with Scout.com's senior writer, and former NFL Scout, Tom Marino. Tom was a scout for over 30 years, doing much of his work with the Rams and Saints. Tom scouted guys like Torry Holt and Marc Bulger, and his work helped the Rams win the Super Bowl in 1999. Guru's interview revealed a ton of insider scout info from a guy very much in the know. Unfortunately, he only talked about a few guys that the Colts are interested in as much of the conversation focuses on who the Broncos will draft (Guru is, after all, a Broncos fan). But the interview does give one a tremendous sense of what scouts look for when evaluating a draft prospect.

Tom is a fountain of NFL knowledge. I got a particular kick out of his draft analysis of Devon Hester. I also found it interesting that Tom did not think highly of Vince Young coming out of college, and feels Jay Coutler is the best QB prospect of that class.

It's a great interview, and I highly suggest going to TPS Radio and listening to it. It is CRACK for the NFL draft junkie! The radio interview is titled MHR Radio Episode 31 - 04/09/08. Click the link to listen.

Bob Lamey, second from right, is an Indiana Hall of Famer now. Photo: Wharacers.com

Before I get into this, I'll come clean: I consider Bob Lamey a friend. He and his lovely wife have been friends with my family for years, and we have always enjoyed their company at family gatherings (like Christmas, Thanksgiving, etc.). So, I have a personal connection to Bob, and it might blur my feelings about what he does professionally. It also likely blurs my feelings regarding the announcement that Bob is to be inducted into the Indiana Sportswriters and Sportscasters Hall of Fame this Saturday.

To put it simply, I'm doing back flips.

If you ever get the chance to meet or know Bob (which is hard because Bob is an intensely private man), you will likely be struck by the impressive amount of sports knowledge he has locked up in his head, especially Indiana sports. The man has a serious passion for Hoosier state athletics, both professional and academic. It's funny that, for many Hoosiers, Bob's nickname is "Hockey Bob," a name that derives from his days broadcasting Indianapolis Racers hockey games. For my generation, we know him as the "Voice of the Colts."

I have never met someone who gets more worked up over a Colts game than Bob. The man gets red-faced when the Colts lose pre-season games. Believe me, I've seen it. This passion surfaces with every play made (or not made) on the field. The Colts could be up 35 points in a meaningless game against a 1-12 team, and Bob will still call the game with the same passion as if it were 2 minutes left in the 2006 AFC Championship Game against the Patriots.

It doesn't matter the situation, the game, or the stakes. When a game is getting played, and Bob Lamey is calling it, he will stand in the booth (hands on hips) talking out the action on the field with the precision of a court stenographer. When he gets really excited, I've seen Bob stand on his tip toes, looking down at the field and maneuvering himself in the booth as if HE were Joseph Addai running it in for a TD. Yet, all the while, he is accurately conveying the action to his listeners with care, precision, and a sense of importance. Watching Bob call a game is a spectacle within the spectacle.

I'll share one small piece of insider knowledge about Bob, because it is something that is not talked about too much (and it should): Bob Lamey cares very much about his craft. He cares so much it almost borders on obsession. He puts a tremendous amount of himself into calling games correctly. I recall his mood as the Colts marched towards the Super Bowl. Bob took special care to make sure those that couldn't see the game (for whatever reason) could experience the game through is voice as if they were seeing it through his eyes.

I laugh when folks sometimes complain that Bob messed up a player's name, or got the number wrong for so-and-so after he intercepted a pass. If only they knew, I think to myself. If only they could see Bob looking at cue cards hours before a game, reciting "kah-BEER BAH-jah BEE-ah-MIL-lah" over and over so he can correctly pronounce Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila when the game begins. If only they saw his face after the Colts lost the regular season game against the Texans in 2006, probably the lowest point of the season for the Colts. Bob puts more of himself into a game than anyone else I've ever seen who is not a coach or player. Like many of you, I make it a regular practice to turn down the sound on CBS, Fox, and NBC games and turn on Colts Radio. This way, I get the TV action and the Bob Lamey play-by-play. The best of both worlds.

I could go into a long post about Bob's resume and his amazing legacy as a sports broadcaster, but I'd simply be repeating what Colts.com has already written. I will simply say that what Chick Hern was to the Lakers, what Myron Cope was to the Steelers, and what Slick Lenard is to Pacers Broadcasting-- Bob Lamey is THAT for the Indianapolis Colts and their fans.

We at Stampede Blue congratulate Mr. Bob Lamey for his induction into the Indiana Sportswriters and Sportscasters Hall of Fame.

Though Bob will say to your face that he never expected this kind of honor, the rest of us will say back that if Bob Lamey is not in the Indiana Sportswriters and Sportscasters Hall of Fame there should not be a Indiana Sportswriters and Sportscasters Hall of Fame. It's a no-brainer, a gimme, an obvious accolade for an outstanding sportscaster.

Well done, Mr. Lamey. Well done, and well deserved.

ESPN's John Clayton is reporting that several rule changes for the upcoming season have passed including:

The rules regarding players hair covering name plates or jersey numbers has been tabled until the May meeting.  Another proposal involving reseeding the playoffs allowing wild card teams to host a playoff game has also been tabled.

Update [2008-4-2 15:3:41 by the21eraser]: - Oops... Note to self: Don't write stories when you get a 20 minute lunch break.