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Is the Colts defense playing well because of a weak schedule? (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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A new week of Power Rankings brings about a new feature:  Defensive Adjusted Rankings.  I'll still be presenting the Non-Adjusted raw rankings, but I think the Adjusted Rankings are a more accurate picture of what is going on in the league.  Here's how I did it:

• First off, a big thank you to Neil Paine over at Pro-Football-Reference.com, who pointed me to a 5 minute video tutorial on Excel Iterations.  I was struggling mightily with it, and I only got it to work with his help.  Make sure you check out the PFR blog for even more football-related information.
• I took the average of all games for each team, and I subtracted out the historic average for each stat, so I now have either a plus or minus number for each team.  I did this both on offense and defense.
• I then found what the average of each team played against, so I could see the level of teams played against.  For example, with DSR, the Colts are 9.3% above average, but opposing defenses they've faced are 4% below average, so I'd start with an adjusted average  of 5.3% above average.
• Now's the tricky part...since the Colts now have a new figure, it changes each of the defenses they have faced, which would then change the offensive adjustements, etc.  This is where the Excel Iterations come in.  Eventually, the numbers slowly converge until they don't change any more, which are the final adjusted numbers, that are above/below the historic average.  Just add that back in and you're good to go.
  
• I ranked the new adjusted numbers the same way as before, and (I think) you have a more accurate representation of the team's strengths.
• If you want another explanation, here's where I got the idea: PFR.com Simple Ranking System.

Now that you are all thoroughly confused, how about I just show you the results:

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More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

The leader of the #1 Offense in the NFL. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Quite a bit of movement this week in the Power Rankings, as the better teams start to separate themselves from the rest of the league.  The Colts moved up 2 spots this week to #4 after their dismantling of the Rams.  As I mentioned in the Inside the Numbers article, the Colts now have the #1 offense, but a middle of the pack defense, which is keeping them at #4.

The biggest surprise on here has the be the Patriots at #2, but that mainly has to do with the fact they've played the Titans and Buccaneers, who've combined for as many wins as all of us have this year.  Their upcoming schedule of Dolphins, Colts, Jets, Saints (OMG!), and Dolphins again will show if they deserve to stay up there.

More analysis after the jump, along with the rankings:

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Some of you may remember the Predictor I had last year, which looked at all of the counting stats (Pass/Rush Yards, Pass/Rush Attempts, Turnovers, First Downs, etc), and spit out a probability of winning the game.  It worked decently, for looking at data that can be horribly skewed.

This offseason, I set out to find out which stats led to the most wins, and that's where the Winning Stats series came from.  We looked at 16 different stats, and found out how often they lead to wins when a team goes above the league average, both offensively and defensively.  It's only natural now I take the data we learned over the summer, pump in the data through the first 5 weeks of the season, weight them accordingly, and have our own set of Power Rankings, which are not subjective in nature at all.

Here's how it works:

• Like I said, there are 16 stats, going from the most important (Drive Success Rate) to the least important (Net Punting Yards / Game).
• WARNING:  STAT GEEK TALK - In order to get all the stats on the same scale (since it's hard to compare a percentage to, say, Yards / Drive), I found where each stat lied on a Normal Distribution curve, which only goes from 0 to 1.  I used the Mean and Standard Deviation from the past 8 years for this, so we're looking at how good these games fall in relation to over 4200 games, rather than the roughly 150 that have happened so far this year.
• Non Stat Geek Explanation of Previous Bullet - In order to compare each of the stats equally, I made it so each one was in a certain percentile from games over the past 8+ years.  For example, the Colts ANY/A average stat this season is in the 91st percentile over the past 8 years, so the value is 0.91.  I did this for every stat, for every team.
• Once all the stats are on a level playing field, I need to weight them, as we now know that certain stats lead to many more wins than others (like Passing Stats lead to lots more wins than Rushing Stats).  Since I need to keep part of this secret in my computer, all I'll say is that the weighting factors are based off of the Winning Percentages found throughout the summer.  Plus I want to keep refining them, so I don't want to give them out.
• I've calculated both an Offensive and Defensive Power Rankings, as well as the Total Rankings.  As in all other rankings, a lower number is better.
• I also calculated a Strength of Schedule based on these Power Rankings, to show how easy/hard a team's schedule has been so far this year.  I used 2/3 Opponent Rankings, and 1/3 Opponent's Opponent Rankings.  Also, the Offense column is the Strength of Schedule the Offense had to face, not how strong the opposing Offenses were.
  

In the next few weeks, I'll be adding a Future Strength of Schedule, and I'm going to attempt to adjust the stats for opponents, much like Football Outsiders does with their DVOA stats.

Ok, enough explaning.  Let's get to the numbers, after the jump...

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Week Six Stampede Blue Power Rankings (remember, we use a system developed by the Stamp Blue Stat Masta: jdb):

1. Chicago: Another week, another dominating performance. If there is one weakness with the Bears, it is their running game. They are only averaging 3.3 yards per rush. That is not good, and with the passing game they now have they should rush for more.
   
   
2. San Diego: They slapped the Steelers around this past Sunday night, and Phillip Rivers is showing that he deserves to be included in the same company as Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. The QB class of 2004 is looking 1984-esque.
   
   

   Jacksonville at #3? Are you smokin' CRACK! Yes, I miss this show (Photo: DaveChappelle.com)

3. Jacksonville: WHAT? The friggin' Jags! How the hell can the 3-2 Jags be ranked higher than the Colts, who are 5-0 with one of those wins AGAINST the Jags? Are you guys smoking crack! Like KC last week, this is a flaw in the rankings. Jacksonville's 41-0 rape of the Jets shot them up to #3. I personally disagree with this ranking, but the system is the system. In the end though, it all balances out. By week 10, the Jags will not be listed this high.
   
   
4. Philadelphia: The Eagles dominated Dallas' o-line Sunday. Donavan McNabb is playing out of his mind. I am very impressed with the Eagles receivers.
   
   
5. New England: The beat another AFC Least team. Tom Brady and the passing game are really struggling, but the running game looks very good. Maroney and Addai are, so far, the best RBs of the 2006 draft.
   
   
6. Cincinnati: They had a bye this week, and Kirkendall was really bored.
   
   
7. Atlanta: They also had a bye week. If SB Nation had a Falcons blogger, he/she would have been bored this past week too.
   
   
8. Indianapolis: Yo-hum. 5-0. Best in the AFC. Yawn, yawn, yawn. Peyton Manning putting up MVP numbers. Running game solid. Run defense can't tackle anyone. When you look bad, and yet still win, you drop in our rankings. Style is everything, baby!
   
   
9. Baltimore: So much for Steve McNair being the difference. Yes, he has helped the team, but once again Brian Billick's inept offense can't score a TD on the road. If you can't score with Steve McNair as your QB, you suck as a coach. Baltimore's defense is back though.
   
   
10. Denver: Who are we? Michael Irvin? Denver beats Baltimore and they are ranked BEHIND THEM? Denver looked very good on defense, and Jake Plummer made the plays he needed to at the end. He should have flipped off the fans that booed him earlier as he left the stadium. Honestly, booing Plummer is pretty silly, Denver fans. Boo the Denver coach that hasn't won anything since John Elway hung them up.
    

Pittsburgh: If they lose to Kansas City this Sunday, stick a fork in the world champs. Ben Roethlisberger is playing terrible now, and if he continues Cowher might need to think about benching him. Pittsburgh's lone win this year is with Charlie Batch at QB.

Kansas City: Last week, top of the world. This week, ranked #11. KC's defense looks very good though.

Dallas: Bill Parcells (who is doing a great job in Dallas, imho) is counting down the days to his retirement, where he can go someplace far, far away from the mind sucking idiocy of his boss: Jerry Jones. How's the Owens and Vanderjadt signings doing for ya, Jerry?

It's week five, and the stats master, jdb, has his weekly rankings available using his own custom stat tracking and evaluation system. This week, jdb's system has produced a bit of a "flaw." His rankings have the 1-2 Kansas City Chiefs in the top ten. I'm sure Chris over at Arrowhead Pride is happy about this. I'll let jdb explain:

1. Chicago: No-brainer. They dominated a very good Seattle team at Soldier Field. Rex Grossman has really stepped up and become the QB Chicago hoped he was. That win in Minnesota a few weeks ago changed this team.
2. San Diego: They lost a close game on the road to Baltimore. However, SD did show that (when allowed) QB Phillip Rivers can make plays. SD's offense is very under-rated. They have only committed one turnover in four games. That is, quite simply, amazing.
3. Baltimore: Their offense is putrid, but Steve McNair is managing the game well. He has helped generate two game winning drives late in two wins this season. McNair looks healthy. Baltimore's defense is also healthy and playing well. They need a running game if they want to contend this year.
4. Dallas: I'm sure Terry over at BTB is loving this-- we ranked the Cowboys ahead of the Colts. The Boys have improved since their opening day loss in Jacksonville. The defense is getting after people, and Bledsoe has found his favorite target. No, it's not T.O. It's Terry Glenn.
5. Indianapolis: They are missing 5 starters on defense, plus Adam Vinatieri. Yet, they win improbable games they have no business winning. Peyton Manning is playing the best football of his life right now. That's scary considering he's already got two league MVPs under his belt. The defense must get healthy if Indy is to contend.
6. Cincinnati: The Patriots came into their building and creamed the Bengals last week. Good! It should serve as a wake up call. The Pittsburgh win inflated Cincy's ego. Chad Johnson needs to STFU and actually DO SOMETHING on the football field this year. The Benglas are too good to lose like that to a team like New England.
7. Atlanta: After getting hosed on MNF in New Orleans, the Falcons came right back the next week and smoked the Cardinals. The Falcons are averaging 6.1 yard per rushing attempt.
8. Philadelphia: They have benefited tremendously from a very easy schedule to start the season: Houston, NY, SF, and Green Bay. Those teams are a combined 3-12. The Eagles should be 4-0. That choke job to the Giants in week 2 might cost them further on down the line. That said, it is nice to see Donavan McNabb healthy again.
9. Kansas City: Ah yes, the CRAZY-ARE-YOU-FLIPPIN'-NUTS pick. As explained, KC is here because of a flaw. Actually, I'm not so sure. Week-to-week rankings have a way of evening out at the end of the year. Right now, I'm not totally against KC in the top 10. Since their week one loss to the Bengals, KC has played very good football, especially on defense. They should have won against Denver in week 2 (bad officiating ended that game-- a theme this year thus far). Consider also that KC is playing without Trent Green. The Chiefs are developing a strong defense and, if Green is back 100%, their offense can score.
10. New England: Welcome back to the top 10, New England! We missed you. Actually, I'm lying. We didn't. But, you did earn the spot after finally showing up this season and beating someone worth noting. Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon are running the ball very well. This is important, because the NE passing attack (214 yards per game, completing only 54% of their passes) is not striking fear into anyone. I still question their defense, but they did a good job last week holding the Bengals out of the end zone.
    

Pittsburgh: Will someone tell the defending Super Bowl champions that the season has started already?

Jacksonville: Their offense finally did something last week against the Redskins. They still lost though.

Seattle: This is not a Super Bowl team without Shaun Alexander. Matt Hasselbeck looked lost against the Bears, and the improved Seattle defense was carved up by Rex Grossman. The bye week could not have come at a better time for the Hawks.

Once again, thanks to jdb for working the stats.

Our resident stat guru, jdb, is keeping track of stats and compiling his own power rankings, which he posts in the diary section each week. After week three, jdb's stat system is starting shake out into a pretty good gauge for who the good teams and bad teams are.

For example, the Colts are in the top five in offense, but they are ranked right in the middle on defense. That's pretty accurate. Using jdb's stat system, I give you Stampede Blue's Power Rankings for Week 3:

1. San Diego: Their offense can run. Their defense can maul. They play strong special teams, and Phillip Rivers hasn't screwed anything up... yet. Solid team all around.
2. Chicago: The media was ready to roast Rex Grossman alive for costing the Bears a win in Minnesota when his 4th quarter pass was intercepted and returned for a TD. However, Grossman proved the pundits (and Vikings safety Darren Sharper) wrong by leading his team to victory on the road in Minnesota. The Bears start the season 3-0 in their division.
3. Cincinnati: The Bengals blew away the Steelers in Pittsburgh this past Sunday. Their defense is improved and Carson Palmer looks a-okay.
4. Baltimore: I said during the off-season this team was dangerous. Boy, I hate being right. The Ravens have committed only one turnover in three weeks. Steve McNair looks healthy and is guiding the offense well.
5. Seattle: The loss of MVP Shaun Alexander will hurt this team. They will morph from a run-oriented team to a more traditional West-Coast offense passing team until Alexander comes back 100%.
6. Indianapolis: Despite mounting injuries on defense, the Colts find ways to win. Marvin Harrison, at age 34, is leading the league in receiving yards and is second in catches.
7. Dallas: Their 1-1 record is misleading. Losing to the Jags in Jackonsville is not a shocker. Dallas' defense will continue to get better. T.O.'s injury will not have much of an impact. Bledsoe's main targets are Terry Glenn and Jason Witten.  
8. New Orleans: Yes folks, the Saints. They are 3-0 and are playing excellent football. They dominated Atlanta on MNF, and Sean Payton has the New Orleans offense looking sharp.
9. New York Jets: Beware the Jets folks. They should be in first place in the AFC East had they not lost in Week 2 to the Patriots. Chad Pennington looks great in the new offense, and the Jets defense looks solid.
10. Atlanta: Despite getting thrashed on Monday Night, the Falcones still have some weapons. Getting Jon Abraham back is paramount. Despite their strong defense and great running game, the Falcons are not going to take it to the next level this year. Michael Vick still cannot throw the ball accurately from the pocket.

New England: This team is not in good shape, folks. Their rookie kicker has had two FGs blocked in two weeks. Their defense looks anemic and they have no one to stretch the field on offense. If you saw Tom Brady's press conference after the Denver loss, you can see he is NOT happy.

Pittsburgh: They are a shell of their former selves. Roethlisberger has played bad football, making dumb mistakes and throwing INTs. Their defense is not the force it once was, and teams are teeing off on Pittsburgh's run, daring Roethlisberger to beat them.

Jacksonville: They rank 11th in the power rankings mainly because of their offense. Despite excellent RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, a solid receiving corps, and a good o-line, the Jags have managed to score a whopping 15 ppg. The blame falls squarely on QB Byron Leftwich.

Many thanks to jdb for compiling the stats and creating a system to track them.