Pro Bowl
Stampede Blue predicts the Pro Bowl
NFC QBs: Kurt Warner (Cardinals), Drew Brees (Saints), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
AFC RBs: Thomas Jones (Jets), Chris Johnson (Titans), Steve Slaton (Texans)
NFC RBs: Clinton Portis (Redskins), Brandon Jacobs (Giants), and DeAngelo Williams (Panthers)
AFC FB: La'Ron McClain (Ravens)
NFC FB: Madison Hedgecock (Giants)
AFC WRs: Reggie Wayne (Colts), Andre Johnson (Texans), Lee Evans (Bills), Vincent Jackson (Chargers)
NFC WRs: Roddy White (Falcons), Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), Greg Jennings (Packers), Anquan Boldin (Cardinals)
AFC TEs: Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs), Owen Daniels (Texans)
NFC TEs: Jason Witten (Cowboys), Chris Cooley (Redskins)
AFC O-line: Jake Long (Dolphins), Micheal Roos (Titans), Ryan Clady (Broncos), Jack Scott (Titans), Ben Hamilton (Broncos), Logan Mankings (Patriots), Kevin Mawae (Titans), Jeff Saturday (Colts)
NFC O-line: David Diehl (Giants), Kareem McKenzie(Giants), Jordan Gross (Panthers), Rich Seubert (Giants), Chris Snee (Giants), Jamar Nesbit (Saints), Shaun O'Hara (Giants), Jeff Faine (Buccaneers)
AFC D-line: Dwight Freeney (Colts), Robert Mathis (Colts), Mario Williams (Texans), Albert Haynesworth (Titans), Kris Jenkins (Jets), Shaun Rodgers (Browns)
NFC D-line: Justin Tuck (Giants), Jon Abraham (Falcons), Jared Allen (Vikings), Kevin Williams (Vikings), Jay Ratliff (Cowboys), Fred Robbins (Giants)
AFC LBers: James Harrison (Steelers), Joey Porter (Dolphins), Terrell Suggs (Ravens), Gary Brackett (Colts), Ray Lewis (Ravens)
NFC LBers: DeMarcus Ware (Cowboys), Julian Peterson (Seahawks), Lance Briggs (Bears), Patrick Willis (49ers), Jon Beason (Panthers)
AFC CBs: Nnamdi Asomugha (Raiders), Cortland Finnigan (Titans), Chris McAllister (Ravens)
NFC CBs: Chris Gamble (Panthers), Charles Woodson (Packers), Asante Samuel (Eagles)
AFC Safeties: Troy Polamalu (Steelers), Ed Reed (Ravens)
NFC Safeties: Tanard Jackson (Buccaneers), Chris Harris (Panthers)
AFC Kicker and Punter: Rob Bironas (Titans), Sam Koch (Ravens)
NFC Kicker and Punter: Jason Hanson (Lions), Brad Maynard (Bears)
AFC Returner: Josh Cribbs (Browns)
NFC Returner: Allen Rossum (49ers)
AFC Special Teamer: Darrell Reid (Colts)
NFC Special Teamer: Jason Snelling (Falcons)
Some notes:
- The Colts should have seven Pro Bowlers
- The AFC South should have 18 Pro Bowlers, which would pretty much re-establish what we already know: The AFC South is the best division in the AFC.
- These predictions are a result of using FO's DVOA.
- No, Adrian Peterson is not a Pro Bowler. Adrian Peterson has seven fumbles. Seven. No real Pro Bowl caliber RB commits seven friggin fumbles. That's like nominating a safety who can't cover.
- Special thanks to shake n bake for making these predictions! You can read his Pro Bowl selection predictions, and his reasoning, here.
50 comments | 0 recs |
Shake's Pro Bowl Ballot: OL and Defense
Now that we are out of the skill positions it's much more opinion and who you have been able to watch, so I'm just banging out the rest of the picks to beat the announcement Tuesday afternoon.
Quarterbacks
OL Methodology: 1. Take entire Giants line. 2. Find a line rated highly by FO's adjusted line yards/sack rate, pick the O lineman on the side that does better in the left/right splits
AFC Tackles: Jake Long(MIA), Micheal Roos (TEN),Ryan Clady (DEN)
NFC Tackles: David Diehl(NYG), Kareem McKenzie(NYG), Jordan Gross (CAR)
AFC Guards: Jack Scott (TEN), Ben Hamilton (DEN), Logan Mankings (NE)
NFC Guards: Rich Seubert (NYG), Chris Snee (NYG), Jamar Nesbit (NO)
AFC Centers: Kevin Mawae (TEN), Jeff Saturday (IND)
NFC Centers: Shaun O'Hara (NYG), Jeff Faine (TB)
AFC D Ends: Dwight Freeney (IND), Robert Mathis (IND),Mario Williams (HOU)
NFC D Ends: Justin Tuck (NYG), Jon Abraham (ATL), Jared Allen (MIN)
AFC D Tackles: Albert Haynesworth (TEN), Kris Jenkins (NYJ), Shaun Rodgers (CLE)
NFC D Tackles: Kevin Williams (MIN), Jay Ratliff (DAL), Fred Robbins (NYG)
AFC Outside LBs: James Harrison (PIT), Joey Porter (MIA), Terrell Suggs (BAL)
NFC Outside LBs: DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Julian Peterson (SEA), Lance Briggs (CHI)
AFC Inside LBs: Gary Brackett (IND), Ray Lewis (BAL)
NFC Inside LBs: Patrick Willis (SF), Jon Beason (CAR)
AFC Cornerback: Nnamdi Asomugha (OAK), Cortland Finnigan (TEN), Chris McAllister (BAL)
NFC Cornerback: Chris Gamble (CAR), Charles Woodson (GB), Asante Samuel (PHI)
AFC Safeties: Troy Polamalu (PIT), Ed Reed (BAL)
NFC Safeties: Tanard Jackson (TB), Chris Harris (CAR)
AFC Kicker: Rob Bironas (TEN)
NFC Kicker: Jason Hanson (DET)
AFC Punter: Sam Koch (BAL)
NFC Punter: Brad Maynard (CHI)
AFC Returner: Josh Cribbs (CLE)
NFC Returner: Allen Rossum (SF)
AFC Special Teamer: Darrell Reid (IND)
NFC Special Teamer:Jason Snelling (ATL)
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Shake's Pro Bowl Ballot: Fullbacks/Tight Ends
Voting closed Tuesday (which is ridiculous, but I'll stay on track) result will be announced next Tuesday.
Fullbacks: No question on either of the picks. AFC: La'Ron McClain, NFC: Madison Hedgecock. McClain has over 600 rushing yards, 7 TDs and has been both running consistently and very successful on short yardage (2nd of all backs in success rate). The NFC doesn't have an effective RBs masquerading as a FB so I'll go with the man that's clearing the way for the leagues top rushing attack (by total yardage, yards per carry and DVOA).
AFC Tight Ends:
Tony Gonzalez, leads all TEs in yards, receptions, TDs and DYAR. He's still got plenty in the tank. He's on pace for 96 receptions 1,082 yards and 9 TDs.
Owen Daniels, I'd love to give the spot to Clark, but Daniels has more receptions, more yards and higher DYAR and DVOA.
NFC TIght Ends:
Jason Witten, Cowboys hate aside he's been the 2nd most productive TE in the league this year. Second in yards, receptions and DYAR.
Chris Cooley, Second in the league in TE receptions, 3rd in yards, 74% catch% and a DYAR favorite
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Shake's Pro Bowl Ballot: Receivers
AFC Wide Receivers (4)
Easy Picks: Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Lee Evans
Leads the league in yards and receptions. Top in the AFC in DYAR and catching 68% off passes intended for him. Reggie Wayne is the only other WR in the top 5 in the AFC in yards and DYAR.
Really? Vincent Jackson
Jackson is second in the AFC in DVOA, 3rd in DYAR, 6th in yards. His 54% catch rate is sub-par until you notice that he's averaging just under 20 yards per reception (19.3). Jackson has been the league's top deep threat. Among AFC receivers only Lee Evans and the stone handed Braylon Edwards have at least 30 receptions with a yards per reception over 14.5
But, but, but Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker
Welker is catching a lot of passes and a great % of the passes thrown at him, but this year they aren't going for much. Only the Bengals WR dou and Maurice Jones Drew have 40 catches with a lower yards per reception. After finishing 4th in DYAR last year Welker ranks 28th in the league behind Ike Hillard, Issac Bruce, Antonio Bryant, Hank Basket and Kevin Walters. Marshall is just being force fed targets. He leads the league despite missing time with a suspention. 72 receptions for 942 yards and 4 TDs is significantly less impressive when it comes on 134 targets. Marshall is even further down the DYAR list sitting between Justin Gage and Patrick Crayton at 58th. Marshall is far better than the 58th best WR in the league, but somewhere around the 11th or 12th time per game the Broncos throw the ball at him they are just wasting plays.
NFC Receivers
Easy Picks: Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerrald, Greg Jennings
Yards and DYAR agree on 3 of the NFC's top 4. White is first in the league in DYAR, DVOA and yards. Fitzgerrald comes in at 2nd in DYAR, receptions and yards. Jennings is 3rd in yards and 4th in DYAR.
Worthy, but have to catch the ball better for my vote: Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, Steve Smith
Both have very good numbers, but my pick for #4 has totals that are nearly as good and did it while catching 70% of the passes thrown at him, compared to 51% and 55%.
My 4th: Anquan Boldin
Boldin leads the NFC in receptions, is 3rd in DYAR, 6th in DVOA (4th with at least 40 catches), 7th in yards and 1st in TDs despite taking a hit that literally broke his face mid-season.
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Shake's Pro Bowl Ballot: Runningbacks
AFC RBs (3)
Easy Picks: Thomas Jones, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton
Rushing yards, yards per carry and DYAR all agree on the AFC's top 3 backs. Jones leads the AFC in yardage by over 100 yards with 11 TDs to go with it. Top RB in the AFC in DYAR and DVOA. In a distant 2nd and 3rd are the rookie speed backs, both with over 900 yards on more than 4.7 a carry and at least 7 TDs.
But, but, but...: LaDainian Tomlinson
If you are going to average under 4 yards per carry you can't go to the Pro Bowl over guys who got more yards on less carries. Tomlinson leads in AFC in carries, but has only 885 yards and 7 TDs to show for it.
NFC RBs
Easy Picks: Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs
The top two backs by both DVOA and DYAR. Both averaging over 4.8 per carry while consistantly gaining yards (over 50% success rates)
Deserving, but not getting my vote: Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson. Leads the AFC in yards and is gaining 4.9 per carry. But he's still a boom or bust back (20th in success rate, behind both Addai and Rhodes) and has fumbled 4 times. Despite the flaws DYAR recognizes the greatness, but not quite as much as the 3 NFC backs ahead of him.
3rd Back: DeAngelo Williams.
Williams has finally broken out into the back he was expected to be when he was drafted ahead of Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones Drew, Jerious Norwood and Leon Washington. He gets the nod over Peterson because of his edge in YPC, DYAR, DVOA, recieving and having zero fumbles to Peterson's 4.
But, but, but... Micheal Turner, Matt Forte
Turner has racked up a pile of yards and 13 TDs, but only because he leads the league in carries. He's getting a mediocre 4.3 per carry while being inconsistant (16th in success rate). Forte is the same story with less TDs and more inconsistancy (29th in success rate of 41 backs)
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Shake's Pro Bowl Ballot: Quarterbacks
Because the NFL opens voting so early and closes it before the season is over it's ballot time.
Quarterbacks (Pick 3)
Easy picks: Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler.
Peyton is the franchise. More than anyone else it's him that's responcible from bring the Colts from sub .500 to the first wildcard spot. His conventional numbers aren't up to his usual standard (on pace a carrer low in TDs, only his 3rd sub 4,000 yard season and the lowest yards per attempt since his rookie year) but Peyton has elevated his game both in recent weeks and in high leverage "clutch" situations giving the Colts the best 3rd down conversion percentage in the league. Jay Cutler leads the AFC in yards and his team is 2nd in 3rd down conversions. Their 3rd down mastery makes them DYAR (FO's counting stat)'s top 2 AFC Quarterbacks.
Worthy, but not getting my vote: Phillip "Laserface aka Marmalard" Rivers.
He gets points for leading the AFC in TDs and yards per attempt while throwing only 10 picks, but throws those points away and then some by being a giant douche.
My 3rd QB: Chad Pennington
Here is the updated stats table from this offseasons musical Quarterbacks act.
| QB | Comp% | Yards | TD | INT | INT% | Y/A | Y/C | Rating |
ANY/A | DYAR | DVOA |
| Favre | 68.7% | 2708 | 20 | 14 | 3.6% | 6.9 | 10.1 | 90.4 | 5.1 | 435 | 4.7% |
| Rodgers | 63.6% | 2897 | 20 | 10 | 2.5% | 7.2 | 11.3 | 91.2 | 5.8 | 776 | 17.8% |
| Pennington | 65.4% | 2881 | 11 | 6 | 1.6% | 7.9 | 12.1 | 92.8 | 6.8 | 845 |
23.7% |
Chad's noodle arm has thrown for more yards, yards per attempt and yards per completion than the legendary gunslinger, while throw picks less than half as often. Sometimes you don't know what you've got until it's led a division doormat to within a game of you.
But, but, but.... : Brett Favre (see above table for why he shouldn't be considered.)
NFC
Easy Calls: Kurt Warner, Drew Brees
Both are legit MVP candidates and top quarterbacks. They are tops in the league in yards and TDs with excellent comp% and yards per attempt.
Worthy but not getting my vote: Eli Manning, Tony Romo,
Eli has taken a solid step forward, but he's not an elite QB yet. With a great line and dominating running game Eli doesn't have the totals or per attempt numbers of the 3 above him. Losing time to injury matters. Romo hasn't done enough in 8 games to top what the other 5 have done in 12.
As much as it pains me, my 3rd QB: Matt Ryan
Leads the league in DVOA, 3rd in the NFC in DYAR has thrown only 6 interceptions despite being a rookie starting from day one, 3rd best yards per attempt in the NFC
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