[UPDATE] We've had a lot of post for today. So, I placed most of the cool stuff in this post after the jump so we can conserve space on the frontpage. Be sure to rec this. It's on of mgrex03's best. --bbs

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a very common stat:  Turnovers. This stat is talked about over and over when talking about winning, but are the "experts" correct when they say turnovers (or lack thereof) are crucial to winning? Here's the obvious calculation:

Mind blowing mathematics there.  I actually looked at a few rate stats with respect to Turnovers, such as Turnovers / Yard Gained, or Turnovers / Drive (which I included in the tables), but none of them were better predictors than just raw Turnovers, so we'll go with that.  Occam's Razor wins again.

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do.  That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years.  I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game.  I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers...

Continue reading this post »

Last week, there was a lot of hand-wringing and hair pulling about the merits of two different Quarterback measurements:  Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt (via Pro-Football-Reference) and the conventional Quarterback Rating.  The flaws and plusses of each were fully discussed here, and I'll give you my thoughts later.  What I'll do first is look how each stat leads to wins, warts and all.

Before I get started, I need to make a correction to my original ANPY/A post.  When I first worked through those numbers, I used 10 yards as the multiplier for Touchdown passes (hover over the ANPY/A column on Manning's page, and you'll see it as 10 yards).  However, Chase Stuart, one of the writers at P-F-R, back in October did research on that number, and determined it should be 20 yards, not 10.  So I went back and corrected the original page with all the new numbers.  It bumped up the Win % just a tad, just barely behind Drive Success Rate (0.04% lower).

So which one leads to more wins?  I'll tell you after the jump...

Continue reading this post »

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a common, but rarely looked at:  Net Punting Average. This stat came about after the Colts playoff game back in January, for good reason.  Mike Scifres significantly helped the Chargers, but can the punter and punt coverage be a significant factor in winning games?  Here's how I calculated it:

In getting this data, I found that NFL.com had the Net Punting Average incorrect.  It subtracted the Return yards from the wrong team, i.e. If the Colts had 150 Punt Yards, and they had 50 Return Yards, it said the Colts had a net Punting of 100 Yards, instead of subtracting what the opponent had in Return Yards.  Oops.

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do.  That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years.  I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game.  I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

• The Overall Average Net Punting Average (that just sounds weird) over the past 8 years is 37.9 Yards.  Does this mean that offenses are just really good at getting first downs, or the defenses aren't that good at stopping them? 
  
• The best team since 2001?  The Raiders, with an average of 40.8 Yards, which is over a full yard better than the #2 team, the Panthers.  I guess that's why Shane Lechler goes to all those Pro Bowls.  The Colts are slightly below average at 37.5 Yards, and have by far had the fewest punts at 458 (next closest is the Patriots at 530).
  
• Defensively, the Bears are #1 with an average of 36.2 Yards.  I'm thinking that two year span with Hester really helped this stat out. The Colts come in at 31st, with a Net Punting Average of 39.1 Yards.  Not a huge difference between the top and bottom teams in the league.  The Colts have also been punted to the fewest times in the league, meaning when we Colts fans watch games, we don't see a lot of punting.
  
• So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense?  1104-1054-1, which is 51.2%.  That's the worst record we've seen so far.  This was expected on my part.  Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 980-919-3, which is 51.6%, which is a little better than the offense. I have the sound effect when somebody loses on The Price is Right in my head now.
  
• When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 499-443-1, or 53.0%.  This ranks 12th out of 12 stats so far, which makes sense.  Special Teams play an important role in the game, but by themselves they don't do much to predict winners.
  
• The best game since 2001?  Week 17 in 2003, where the Redskins had a Net Punting Average of 69.0 Yards against the Eagles.  That was only 1 punt though, but still pretty good.  Best multiple punt game was Week 3 in 2007, where the Broncos had an average of 63.0 Yards against the Jaguars.  Best game for the Colts offense?  Week 4 in 2004 against the Titans, where they had a Net Punt Average of 55.0 Yards (2 Punts), 15th best game overall. 
  

• The worst game since 2001? Week 7 in 2006, where the Colts (!?!) had a Net Punting Average of -8.5 Yards (2 Punts) against the Redskins.  Did it matter?  Of course not, as the Colts dominated the Redskins, winning 36-22.  There were 3 games that had a negative Net Punt Average, just in case you were wondering.

• There have only been 19 games since 2001 without a Punt, which seems really low to me.  The Colts have only done it 3 times, the last being in Week 7 of 2005 against the Texans.  I'm amazed it's been that long.  The Colts have had it done to them only once, Week 13 in 2007 against the Jaguars (a Colts 28-25 victory).
• Of the top 40 games (51.3 and higher), there were 5 of them that came against the Colts.  Of those 5, 4 happened in 2008!  The Colts were 1-3 in those games.  The playoff game against the Chargers? 51.7 Net Punting Average.  Teams boomed punts against the Colts, and the Colts failed to return them.  This better change in 2009.

So what did we learn today?  Net Punting Average may help win an occasional game, but on the whole, it is only slightly better than flipping a coin over an 8 year span.  We also learned that the Colts played 5 games this past season where the punter for the other team had a career day.  Somehow I don't see this happening next season.

Here's a table of all the stats we've looked at so far, and those we still have to look at.  Here goes:

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average.  Click on the headers to sort.  Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data.  There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Continue reading this post »

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a not-so common Football Outsider stat:  Drive Success Rate.  The FO website didn't give a full definition on their website, but said to refer to Pro Football Prospectus 2005, where it was introduced.  The Public Library came to the rescue, and I found exactly what they meant:

Drive Success Rate (or more precisely, series of downs success rate), or DSR, measures the likelihood that a team's offense will get another first down (or a touchdown, which the official NFL statisticians also count as a first down) in a given set of downs.  And the equivalent defensive number measures how often a defense will allow another first down.

It confused me at first, as I thought they considered a drive "successful" with just 1 first down.  But after reading this, it looks at each time a team has a first down, how often do they earn another one.  My next challenge was to figure out the easiest way to calculate this.  After thinking about for way too long, the simple answer finally came to me:

**I don't know if this is the formula FO uses, because they didn't have that on their site.  But it's the formula I used (and the numbers came out very close), so we're going with it.

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do.  That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years.  I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game.  I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

• The Overall Average Drive Success Rate over the past 8 years is 69.1%.  Does this mean that offenses are just really good at getting first downs, or the defenses aren't that good at stopping them? 
  
• The Colts blow away the competition in this, with a DSR of 77.3%.  The usual suspects are also high up there (Patriots, Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos), making the top 5 teams in this category all teams from the AFC.  Dominance anyone?
  
• Defensively, the Ravens are #1 again (they really have been as dominant on defense as the Colts have been on offense), with a DSR of only 63.5%.  Even the best team can only stop an offense 36% of the time.  The Colts come in at 30th, with a DSR of 71.6%.  If the Colts can get back to "average", they'll have a scary good team.
  
• So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense?  1308-658-1, which is 66.5%.  That's the 2nd best record we've seen so far.  DSR is looking really good for predicting games.  Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1381-729-3, which is 65.4%, which is a little worse than the offense. We haven't seen numbers like this since we looked at Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt.  Fantastic.
  
• When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 742-90-1, or 89.14%.  This ranks 1st out of 11 stats so far, which is unbelievable.  I didn't think we could get better than ANPY/A, but we did.  I guess those guys at FO know what they are doing, huh?
  
• The best game since 2001?  Week 11 in 2007, where the Patriots had a DSR of 97.4% against the Bills.  I remember that game, and it was ugly. Best game for the Colts offense?  Week 4 in 2007 against the Broncos, where they had a DSR of 92.1%, 5th best game overall.  Of the top 35 games, 11 are Colts games.  Also, the top 42 games were all wins (the first loss was a Jaguars loss to the Colts, Week 13 of 2007), and those teams averaged 40.5 points / game.
  

• The worst game since 2001? Week 16 in 2006, where the Vikings had a DSR of 20.0% against the Packers, a 9-7 loss.  Tavaris Jackson at his best, and no Adrian Peterson.  Only 104 total yards.  Yeah, I'd say that was a bad, bad game.  The Colts worst game (with Manning)? Week 12 in 2001, a 39-27 loss to the Ravens, where they had a DSR of 56.3%.

• The Colts have only had 21 games where they were below average in DSR, and were 11-10 in those games.  This is by far the lowest number of games below average (the Patriots were 2nd with 37 games).  That Manning guy is good.
• Two teams haven't lost since 2001 when their offense and defense are above average:  the Falcons (22-0) and the Titans (19-0).  Included in that Titans stat is the final game of 2007, when Kerry Collins put them in the playoffs against the Colts 2nd and 3rd team.
• I mentioned above that if the Colts could get to "average" on defense, this team would be scary good.  How do they get there?  They need to make just 2 stops / game to get back to 69.5%.  That's it, only 2.  The offense will be above average at least 12 games.  If the defense can do the same, the Colts will win, period.

So what did we learn today?  Drive Success Rate is the best stat we've looked at so far, and leads to a whole lot of wins.  We also learned the Colts (like many of the other stats) are really good on offense, and really bad on defense.

I promised a table of all the stats we've looked at so far, and those we still have to look at.  Here goes:

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average.  Click on the headers to sort.  Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data.  There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Continue reading this post »

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a not-so common stat:  3 & Outs.  Technically it should be called "Drives without a First Down", but 3 & Outs is the common vernacular, so we'll go with that.  Here's how I calculated it:

Tough huh?  I looked at dividing it by the number of drives in a game, but it wasn't as good at predicting as just straight 3 & Outs.  In the stats I included the Percentages, just for completeness (and to show the Colts awesomeness on offense and not-awesomeness on defense).

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do.  That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years.  I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game.  I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

• The Overall Average number of 3 & Outs over the past 8 years is 3.92 / Game.  About 1 per quarter, and 34.5% of all drives.  That seems high to me, but the numbers don't lie.  Funny enough there have been exactly 16,000 3 & Outs the past 8 years.
  
• The Colts have by far the least number of 3 & Outs, with 336 (or 2.63 / Game).  The difference between the Colts and #2 (Patriots) is the same difference between #2 and #14 (Giants).  The Colts are also way ahead in Percentage at only 25.6%.  I'm not surprised by this at all.
  
• Defensively, the Ravens are #1 again, causing 633 3 & Outs (or 4.95 / Game).  That 1 more 3 & Out, on average, for every game.  How have the Colts done?  If you guessed dead last, you'd be right.  The Colts have only forced 399 3 & Outs (or 3.12 / Game).  Yikes.  But we already knew the Colts were bad at this.
  
• So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense?  1096-767-0, which is 58.8%.  That's definitely not as good as some of the other stats we've looked at.  Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1271-942-4, which is 57.4%, which is a little worse than the offense. This doesn't seem like it is going to give us good predictions.
  
• When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 577-248, or 69.9%.  This ranks 7th out of 10 stats so far, which won't make the cut. I plan on keeping the top 6.
  
• The best game since 2001?  Week 5 in 2005, where the Redskins had 12 drives without a 3 & Out against. the Broncos.  That's pretty darn good.  Unfortunately for them, they lost to the Broncos 21-19. Best game for the Colts offense?  Week 11 in 2003 against the Jets, where they had 11 drives without a 3 & Out, tied for 2nd best game overall (8 games).  

• The worst game since 2001? Week 15 in 2006, where the Buccaneers had 13 3 & Outs against the Bears.  They did have 19 drives in that game though, and scored 31 points, losing in Overtime.  The Colts worst game not involving Sorgi?  Week 12, 2001, a 39-27 loss to Baltimore, where they had 8 3 & Outs.  The Colts have only had 5 games with more than 5 3 & Outs.

• The Colts have only lost 2 games when they have had less than 4 3 & Outs, and the defense has forced 4 or more 3 & Outs: Week 10 in 2003 against the Jaguars (28-23 loss), and Week 13 in 2003 against the Patriots (stupid Edge not getting in the End Zone at the end).  The Colts have won 21 straight games since then.  Come on defense, get your act together and get off the field!
  

So what did we learn today?  Well, 3 & Outs aren't the best way to predict football games, but it isn't the worst we've looked at so far.  We also learned the Colts are really good on offense, and really bad on defense.

I promised a table of all the stats we've looked at so far, and those we still have to look at.  Here goes:

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average.  Click on the headers to sort.  Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data.  There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Continue reading this post »

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a very common stat:  3rd/4th Down Conversions.  I decided to combine both 3rd and 4th down as it gave better results than just 3rd Down Conversions, and 4th down by itself wasn't helpful at all.  Here's how I calculated it:

I also threw around the idea of weighting short/middle/long distance conversions, but thought I'd keep it simple for now, and look to improve it later.  If anyone wants to take on this challenge, let me know and I'll gather some data and send it off.  The other challenge is perfecting my data-gathering technique for distance conversions.  There's always room for improvement.

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do.  That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years.  I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game.  I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

• The Overall Average Conversion Percentage over the past 8 years is 39.1%.  This is actually a little higher than I was expecting, which is a good sign.  Haven't said that often.
  
• The Colts have taken back the throne of being #1 in this stat, converting at 47.7%.  This is a full 3.6% better than #2 (Patriots).  Whenever the stat is led by the Colts and Patriots, I think it's going to lead to a lot of wins.
  
• Defensively, the Ravens have also taken back the #1 spot, holding opponents to 34.2%.  Nothing surprising with this list.  The Colts check in at #31, 42.9%.  Only the Lions are worse.  That's not good company to be in.
  
• So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense?  1230-734-2, which is 62.6%.  Anything over 60% here has been pretty good so far, so that's a good sign.  Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1305-807-2, which is 61.8%, which is a little worse than the offense. Looking good.
  
• When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 745-247, or 75.1%.  This ranks 5th out of 9 stats so far, smack dab in the middle.  For now, it's a keeper.
  
• The best game since 2001?  Week 16 in 2008, where the Saints converted at 91.7% (11/12) against the Lions.  I'm a little surprised there hasn't been a game with 100% conversion.  Something to shoot for I guess in 2009.  Best game for the Colts offense?  Week 13 in 2007 against the Jaguars, where they converted 10/13 (76.9%), good for 9th best game overall.  The Colts are responsible for 5 of the top 17 games, and no other team has more than 1 in the top 17.  Have I mentioned the Colts have been really, really good at this?
• The worst game since 2001? Well, there were two that went 0/13:  Week 16 in 2002, where the Cowboys were awful against the Eagles, and Week 8 in 2005, where the Saints failed miserably against the Dolphins.  The Colts worst game not involving Sorgi?  One I attended in 2003, a 31-17 loss to Denver.  The Colts were an atrocious 2/10.  Yikes.
  
• The Colts have played the most games when the defense is below average.  In other news, water is found to be wet, and Man has landed on the moon.  The Colts also have the best record when the defense is below average, so I guess it can't be all that bad, huh?  To contrast this, the Colts have played the most games where the offense was above average, with the 2nd best record. 
  
• In KingRichard's 10 Things the Colts Must Do to Become Champs, he lists as #3:

  The biggest problem with the defense last season wasn't that they were being run all over or getting burnt deep against the pass.  It was the failure to stop teams on third down, no matter what the distance.

  As we see from these stats, he's absolutely right, and improvement can lead directly to wins.  Even just 2 more games of holding the other team below 39% (Colts average only 6 / season) should lead to 2 more wins.  The Colts have only lost 4 times when both the offense and defense show up in the same game.  More of these games would be fantastic, and almost automatic wins.  This is where I hope the new defensive staff improves the most.

So what did we learn today?  3rd and 4th down conversions are, in fact, very important to winning.  The Colts are far and away the best team in the league offensively, and have lots of room for improvement defensively.  Here's to that improvement coming in 2009.

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average.  Click on the headers to sort.  Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data.  There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Continue reading this post »

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at something that is easy to calculate, but often overlooked:  Average Starting Position.  There are a myriad of factors that play into this, most importantly Turnovers and Special Teams.  Here's the (easy) formula:

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do.  That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years.  I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game.  I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

• The Overall Average Starting Position over the past 8 years is their Own 31.2 Yard Line.  This number makes sense, as I was expecting around the 30 yard line.
  
• The Colts didn't fare too well in this stat, as they finished 22nd, starting on average at the 30.9 Yard Line.  Just below average, which is also about where I expected it to be, with our killer return game and all. So who was #1 in the NFL? The Bears, starting on average at the 33.2 Yard Line.  I guess Devin Hester does play a big role on their team, even when not returning the ball.
  
• Defensively, the Patriots are #1, forcing their opponents to start at the 29.6 Yard Line.  How about the Colts?  14th, starting on average at the 31.0 Yard Line.  That's better than expected, which is a pleasant surprise.  Still room for improvement as well, which hopefully comes this year.
  
• Now the important stuff:  How often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense?  1214-652-3, which is 65.0%.  That's pretty good.  Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1387-823-1, which is 62.8%, which is a little worse than the offense. That's the biggest gap between offense and defense we've seen so far.  Still, a pretty good Win %.
  
• When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 898-334-1, or 72.9%.  This is middle of the pack for what we've looked at so far, so it is tough to tell whether it's that impressive.  It's also not a big jump from the one-side Win %.  I hope we get to a point where a stat that wins 75% of the time just isn't good enough.  The Colts were the best team in the league when this happens, winning 93.8% of the time (30-2).
  
• The best game since 2001?  Week 16 in 2001, where the Buccaneers, on average, started at their Opp. 48.8 Yard Line against the Ravens.  There have been only 5 games where the average starting position was in Opponents territory.  I thought there would be more.  Also, of the top 64 games (~45 Yard Line or better), there have only been 2 losses.  That's excellent.  Best game for the Colts offense?  Week 6 in 2005 against the Rams, where they started, on average, at the 49.4 Yard Line.
• The worst game since 2001? Week 9 in 2005, where the Falcons started, on average, at the  15.2 Yard Line against the Dolphins.  Interestingly enough, the Falcons won that game 17-10.  Everyone remember the beat down of the Ravens from last season by the Colts?  The Ravens started, on average, at the 17.6 Yard Line.  This was the best game by the Colt's defense over the past 8 years.
• When you look at the tables below, you'll notice that in all 6 Win% categories, the Colts and Patriots are either #1 or #2.  They are also the only 2 teams to be above .500 when being Below Average on both sides of the ball.  Surprise, surprise, I know.  It's just good to see it on paper.
• The difference between the best team in the leage and the worst is only 3-4 yards, which is much smaller than I was expecting.  Pretty much everyone tends to start in about the same position, on average.  Along with this information, we shouldn't expect big jumps from year to year in terms of better field position.  Just 1 or 2 yards is a very good improvement.

So what did we learn today?  Predicting game based on Average Starting Position is pretty safe, and gets much safer the better the Starting Position.  I'm certainly not going to dismiss it as a solid predictor.

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average.  Click on the headers to sort.  Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data.  There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Continue reading this post »

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a very conventional stat:  Yards per Carry.  Everyone uses this stat to show how well a running game is, so let's find out if all the "experts" are right.  Here's the (simple) formula:

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do.  That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years.  I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game.  I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

• The Overall Average over the past 8 years is 4.13 Yds/Carry.  I figured it to be over 4, so this seems about right.
  
• I've finally found a stat that the Colts were not #1 in, as they finished 26th at 3.89 Yds/Carry.  Yikes.  But guess what?  The Colts are still better than the Patriots (barely). So who was #1 in the NFL? The Vikings at 4.64 Yds/Carry.  That's pretty good, and makes sense that it would be the Vikings.
• Defensively, the Ravens are #1 (again) at 3.45 Yds/Carry.  The Cowboys finishing 4th surprises me a little.  Who knew they stopped the run so well?  How about the Colts?  30th at 4.49 Yds/Carry.  Only the Rams and Chiefs have been worse.  But we knew all this already.  The Colts really haven't stopped the run.
  
• Now the important stuff:  How often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense?  955-855-2, which is 52.8%.  This is the worst stat so far.  Who'd have thought that?  Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1184-1082-2, which is 52.2%, pretty much the same as the offense. Anyone else like this, because I sure don't.
  
• When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 548-448, or 55.0%.  This is not much better than just one side of the ball, and the worst we've seen so far (RB Success Rate was 59%)
• The best game since 2001?  Week 12 in 2008, where the Chiefs averaged huge 12.23 Yds/Carry against the Bills.  Guess what?  The Chiefs lost 54-31.  That game that was the lowest of the low in 2006?  6th best game at 8.93 Yds/Carry.  Unfortunately for the Colts, the defense was in 3 of the top 5 games, and 5 of the top 11.  Best game for the Colts offense?  Week 15 in 2001 against the Jets (29-28 loss), when they had 7.39 Yds/Carry.
• The worst game since 2001? Week 10 in 2007, where the Lions averaged -2.25 Yds/Carry against the Cardinals.  That is 8 carries, -18 yards.  The Lions had the 2nd worst game as well, at -0.30 Yds/Carry.  These were the only 2 games that had negative yards per carry.
• The only team that had less games where both sides were above average than the Colts was the Texans, and they had 1 less season.  Needless to say, the Colts didn't have this happen very often.  On the flip side, they had the most games where both sides were below average at almost 6 games per season.  But as we've seen, it really didn't matter in terms of wins.
• When the Colts defense was Above Average (held teams under 4.1 Yds/Carry), they had the best record in the league, winning 77.4% of the time.  This is slightly better than the offense when they are above average, as they won 73.9% of the time, good for 3rd best in the league.

So what did we learn today?  You shouldn't use Yards per Carry if you want to predict football games.  This further lends credence that a Above Average passing game is much more valuable than an Above Average running game.

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average.  Click on the headers to sort.  Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data.  There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Continue reading this post »