Somewhere, shake n bake is crying
With the 42nd pick in the SB Nation Mock Draft, TheSportsGuru, picking for his beloved Denver Broncos, took East Carolina's RB Chris Johnson. Needless to say, this was a major reach for Guru, whose Broncos need a helluva lot more help than a good #2 back and special teams player. Here's Guru's reasoning:
Denver's o-line is pedestrian, at best. Their defense is awful. WR Brandon Marshall, despite all his wonderful abilities, is garbage. If Denver fans think this jack-off is the future of their WR corps, they are in for a very rude awakening. We all knew Marshall was garbage when, during the regular season game against the Colts, he openly challenged the toughness of the then-defending World Champs ("They soft! We tough!").
Marshall caught 3 passes for 23 yards and 1 garbage TD in the game. The Colts won 38-20, scoring 6 times in the final 8 possessions.
In addition, Denver's TE and starting RB situations are also in disarray. Knowing all this, to take a part time, #2 RB that can contribute on special teams here is the very definition of REEEEEEEEEAAAAAAACH.
Now, is the pick a "Ryan Leaf-like" pick? Of course not. CJ will help the Broncos, especially on special teams. But, in terms of the way Denver runs its offense, CJ is not ideally suited to run full time in Denver's system. With players like TE Dustin Keller, WR Earl Bennett, DT Pat Sims, LB Xavier Adibi, or even RB Matt Forte (who would dominate the NFL in Denver's system) Guru takes a player who is not a full time RB in their system and is, mostly, a special teams player who can be controlled by not kicking the ball to him (because, in all seriousness, there's nothing to fear from Denver's offense or defense).
I understand that grabbing a "Devon Hester-like" player is something teams are looking to get, but kindly remind me what Chicago's record was last year. If you look at the Bears now, they are (at best) a 6 win team. Why?
No consistent defense.
No consistent running game.
NO receivers.
No big play TE.
No offensive line.
Kinda sounds like Denver as well, doesn't it. I say all this because CJ is the kind of player the Colts can afford to take in Round 2. The Colts do not have many roster holes (at present), and a change-of-pace back with special teams flare is exactly what Indy could use. Denver, meanwhile, cannot afford this. The Broncos are a team that absolutely, positively MUST. MAKE. THE. PLAYOFFS. IN. 2008. And not just make the playoffs, but go far in the playoffs for Mike Shanahan to retain his job (which he should have lost a loooooooong time ago). Broncos ownership has, essentially, told Shanny this in the wake of Shanny surprisingly firing Broncos GM Ted Sunquist recently. If you are a team in full rebuilding mode, I can understand drafting CJ here.
Denver isn't in that mode. They are in panic mode.
Knowing that, drafting a player like CJ is not a move that will help you get to the playoffs and win in the playoffs in 2008, especially with so many vital holes left unfilled by quality players, and other positions manned by washed up veterans (John Lynch) or over-rated idiots (Dre Bly). It's likely though that guru made this pick as a statement: The league is scared as all hell of Indy getting Chris Johnson:
There. I hope shake n bake feels better now that I have attacked and torpedoed the blogger who stole his beloved CJ from the SB Nation Mock Draft. I will now likely get chewed out by Guru, and the discussion will then fall into yet another debate over Brett Favre. I hope you are happy shake n bake.
0 recs |
26
comments
Comments
I disagree BBS
by Terry on Apr 16, 2008 11:13 AM EDT 0 recs
Um, huh?
CJ: 5'11, 195 pounds
by BigBlueShoe on
Apr 16, 2008 11:15 AM EDT
up
0 recs
Portis was only 205 lbs
by Terry on
Apr 16, 2008 3:12 PM EDT
up
0 recs
Where to start....
Now, as for Johnson, I'll simply use the same response I used over at MTD -
80% of the roster has turned over the past two years. The star QB is going into his 2nd full season as a starter, the star WR is going into his 3rd full season. The O-Line is 60% young guys, in their 2nd-to-4 years.
On defense, other than Champ Bailey, the story is the same. Shanny would never admit that the Broncos are "re-building" but the truth is they are. I have said they are in Year 3 of a 5-year plan and the one thing the Broncos lack is speed. Plain and simple. This picks addresses that. When it comes to these holes for the Broncos - DT, LB, OT - who on the board at this point is the better selection? Red Bryant is a 2-gap DT who will be good at taking up space. He doesn't fit with what the Broncos want to do defensively. Plus, the trade for Dwayne Robertson will alleviate some of that. WR, another proposed weak spot is being handled in FA, with Darrell Jackson being brought into the fold. Sure, you can classify those players as question marks, but are they bigger risks than reaching for Bryant or a guy like Earl Bennett?
Johnson provides the Broncos something from Day 1. Something they sorely lack. Something the Bears needed as well when they "reached" for Hestor in the 2nd round. So the question becomes, is Chris Johnson a better RB prospect than Devin Hester was a CB prospect. based on the fact the Bears moved him to WR, I'd say the answer is yes.
Terrence McGee, Josh Cribbs, Hester, all guys that were brought in as pure return guys FIRST, then groomed into larger roles. All have had a HUGE impact on their teams.
The Broncos are rebuilding, and they need speed and guys that can change the game, even if it is in the return game. Johnson provides that. The Broncos have "enjoyed" the worst starting filed position in the NFL the past 2 seasons. It's not a surprise that the offense has struggled as well. Johnson can change that, making it well worth the risk. Please give me another player, if this pick is so "horrible" that can do that for the Broncos.
Don't bring problems, bring solutions. If not Johnson, then whom?
Sure, the Broncos might be reaching a little. But you sound like alot of Broncos fans that are in denial about the situation, living in the glory years of the late 90's. The Broncos need to inject new life into the roster, and I'd rather reach for a player with the potential of a Johnson, then a DT or O-Lineman with similar upside but a far-less drop-off between Round 2 and Round 4.
by TheSportsGuru on Apr 16, 2008 11:53 AM EDT 0 recs
poor draft strategy
by colt44 on Apr 16, 2008 11:55 AM EDT 0 recs
It was a joke...
by TheSportsGuru on
Apr 16, 2008 11:58 AM EDT
up
0 recs
Good thing..
by colt44 on
Apr 16, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
up
0 recs
On more thing...
Davis - 5'11, 205
Johnson - 5'11, 195
Of course, I guess Johnson won't add any bulk at all in the next level.
Broncos leading rusher last season??
Selvin Young - 6'0, 210
Johnson fits the mold perfectly...
by TheSportsGuru on Apr 16, 2008 11:57 AM EDT 0 recs
One more thing....
The QB situation is a train wreck. Add that to the fact they traded the wrong RB last off-season and poof, you get the 2007 Chicago Bears...
by TheSportsGuru on Apr 16, 2008 12:00 PM EDT 0 recs
bears
Terrible safety.
by Blitzburgh on
Apr 16, 2008 4:27 PM EDT
up
0 recs
Agreed
- Tank Johnson was yet another disastrous draft pick for Jerry Angelo.
- Angelo traded his best RB (Thomas Jones) and gave all the carries to Cedric Benson, who stinks. Benson was the #4 overall pick in 2005. How does Angelo still have a job?
- Yes, the QB play sucked. But even a bad QB needs an o-line to protect him. The Bears o-line is horrid.
- Tommie Harris is always hurt. He's the building block of the defense (more so even than Urlacher) and he's ALWAYS hurt.
- Even with Bernard Berrian (who is a decent WR at best), the Bears WR Corps sucked. Without him now, it's almost scary bad.
by BigBlueShoe on
Apr 16, 2008 4:36 PM EDT
up
0 recs
As for Marshall...
Garbage?? I'm sorry, but if catching 102 passes for 1325 yards, 7 TDs is garbage everyone would be doing it.
by TheSportsGuru on Apr 16, 2008 12:05 PM EDT 0 recs
my feelings
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4ozVMxzNAA
by shake n bake on Apr 16, 2008 12:24 PM EDT 0 recs
I just wnat you to know
by styg50 on
Apr 16, 2008 12:38 PM EDT
up
0 recs
A few points
You state above that Chris Johnson does not fit Denver's offense, and truly, not many scatbacks would, but the essence of this isn't "big and physical" versus smaller, more athletic players. Any size or shape of RB can be successful in Denver's scheme as long as they are a one-cut runner. That is the only thing that matters. Tatum Bell was not a successful RB in Denver, for all his talent, because he was not a one cut runner. And Chris Johnson is an ideal one cut runner. His ability to slide his hips and cut up into the hole is excellent and his speed when cutting is killer in a cutback scheme. He also demonstrated great coachability in his last season at ECU when he improved leaps and bounds with his patience following his blocks. This is the second key characteristic, as a one-cut runner is most effective if he can wait patiently behind his blockers until the cutback lane opens up, which lead to the third characteristic that is a must have for Denver's scheme which is vision--specifically vision to find and choose the proper cutback lane, as any given play has around three possible options. And Johnson has vision in spades.
He isn't just suited to Denver's scheme, he is perfectly suited to it.
Regarding his physical stature, Denver wouldn't dream of putting him in the "bruiser" role. Right now we utilize a one-two punch at RB: Henry is the body blow that softens the interior running game, Young/Hall are the uppercut that is meant to break the defense wide open. Johnson would be an instant upgrade over Andre hall as he is faster and tougher, and has a better one-cut pedigree. If Denver drafted Johnson he would see somewhere around 35-25% of his touches a game coming from the #3 RB position. You guys know as well as anyone that certain depth posiitons are critical to offensive efficacy, especially down the line in the season.
So CJ definitely fits what Denver is looking to do in the running game.
Regarding other available prospects, (since you, quite rightly, make the argument that CJ isn't a bad pick), forget LB, where Denver sank money (judiciously, thank heavens) into free agents. For better or worse, they won't be looking at LB until much later in the draft, if at all. DT Pat Sims is very tempting, since I would rate our interior defense as the weakest overall aspect of the team, but we need solid, run stopping 2 gappers. Sims brings an element of flash, when we need to get focused on the fundamentals. I'll pass and start looking again when Ahtyba Rubin comes up at much greater value/pick late in the third/early fourth. I would LOVE to have Earl Bennett. He is the fundamentally sound, reliable character guy that could be a reliable, open target for years to come. But it would be even more of a reach than CJ, and with a #2 pick, you need to grab some of the talent/athleticism/speed that can't be had later in the draft. Bennett is a Football Player and could help Cutler, but not more than a running game that is solid throughout its rotation, and a return game that gets us decent starting filed position. And TE? Seriously? Forte is a good back, but he would be better suited to what Indy does than what Denver does. He reminds me a little of a young Edge. That being said, he would be more in line to replace our mauler, Henry, who has major consistency concerns, but led the league in rushing last year before getting sidelined with an injury. He has quietly gone about an intensive offseason training routine with a trainer/guru. I expect big things from him.
Long post so I will wind it up here: CJ fits the scheme, is a rare combination of speed and athleticism, upgrades our woeful STs and on top of that is a solid, solid lockerroom presence and team guy, who gets what he means to his team. He is a solid piece of the puzzle for Denver, and a good use of the #42 pick.
by styg50 on Apr 16, 2008 12:36 PM EDT 0 recs
Not being a Broncos fan
So basically, how are Young/Hall viewed by the fans and the organization? Are they seen as the potential future or are they stopgaps until a CJ comes along?
by ctnyc on
Apr 16, 2008 2:39 PM EDT
up
0 recs
Great Questions...
As for Young, I like him, but he disappears in the Red Zone. He is not a "tough" runner. Don't confuse toughness with size. Young and Johnson are similar in size. Some guys look for contact, seek it, some don't. Young is a great change of pace back. He was also undrafted, and Shanny has admitted that he will not be a 25-30 carry a game back.
Johnson, on the other hand, doesn't have to do a thing as a RB in 2008. Return the ball, and come on the field as a weapon in certain situations. He can then grow into the position. I don;t look at Johnson as a "scat-back". He's a running back with incredible speed. he'll add bulk and his frame will support it without affecting that speed at all. As I keep saying, why draft a position simply because of need when you have a chance to get electric talent?
by TheSportsGuru on
Apr 16, 2008 3:00 PM EDT
up
0 recs
RE: Young/Hall
Injuries decimated our RBs last year, so we never really got to see what they could all do together. When Young/Hall were starting while Travis was hurt, they wore down REALLY fast. By the end of the game we really didn't have much of a running game, and we lost several leads because of it. Some call for Young to bulk up so that he is more durable, but he gets his pads up when he runs, so if he can address that????? Hall runs much better in terms of his pads, but he has a weaker lower body, and much less drive in his body, so if he could get better there??????
Basically we have a ton of questions about them, and since nothing on offense works if the running game doesn't work, Denver fans want competition to challenge them. If our running gmae sucks next year too, it won't be because we didn't try to inject some talent into it...
by styg50 on
Apr 16, 2008 7:22 PM EDT
up
0 recs
CJ
- Even Matt Miller agrees that CJ is not someone ideal for Denver's system. It's possible for him to develop into the role, but what Denver needs is a sure fire prospect (Forte), not a "maybe."
- Yes, Portis and Terrel Davis were 5'11 and roughly 200 pounds when they ran the rock for Denver. However, their running styles and body types are totally different from CJ's.
- The issue here is not whether CJ is worth such a high pick. The issue here is whether CJ is worth such a high pick for a weak team like the Broncos. cynyc asks the question perfectly: CJ might be great for the scheme and an upgrade over the others, but would he be enough of an upgrade to justify such a high slot on a team that needs help at multiple positions? The answer is no, he isn't. Guru's explanation is not enough to justify the pick.
- If CJ adds "bulk and frame" as Guru suggests, he will lose his speed, which is the entire point of drafting him. CJ is also not a 20-25 carry a game back, which currently Denver doesn't have.
- Regarding Marshall, maturity is as important a trait as speed, jumping, agility, vision, and catching. Maybe even the most important. Marshall's numbers last year were great. Knowing that, tell me what was Denver's record? What will Marshall bring to Denver this year, especially now that his arm is all cut up from doing YET ANOTHER stupid thing and then LYING about it? The guy supposedly has nerve damage in his arm. Are you kidding me? Marshall is garbage. I don't care if the kid can FLY. You either have a brain or you don't. Marshall is in the "don't" column.
- Denver rarely, if ever, throws the football to the RBs. This is by design, as it is very hard to throw the ball to a RB after a play fake, boot leg. Why draft an RB like CJ who is thought to have slot receiver-like ability catching the ball? Again, CJ just doesn't fit Denver's scheme, unless Denver changes the scheme to fit CJ (which is unlikely).
- And finally... special teams is the least of Denver's concerns. When you can't score points with your offense and your defense is one of the worst in the league, getting a kick returner in Round 2 makes absolutely no sense. For the same reason Cam Cameron was booed picking Ted Ginn Jr. high in the draft last year even though both his offense and defense was crap, Guru gets a big BOOOOO! here for drafting CJ. The Broncos have just too many holes to justify this pick
by BigBlueShoe on Apr 16, 2008 4:19 PM EDT 0 recs
One more try
- I'll preface this by saying I will defer to the pros anytime. But in this case, I think the point that Matt is making is that CJ isn't coming from a ZB scheme. That said, ECU definitely had ZB elements to their game, and regardless, it is a moot point. CJ has vision, one-cut agility and patience, and that is all Denver is looking for as far as the system is concerned. They have successfully been teaching the rest of the system to backs who had a lot less going for them than CJ does, and Shanahan can and has adjusted his offense to capitalize on what specific players bring to the table. Portis is a perfect example. Tatum Bell is another, less desirable, example, since with Tatum it didn't work out. The patience factor couldn't be overlooked and Shanahan learned that one the hard way. And while I would hesitate to call most any player in the draft "sure-fire", I would note that Denver has rarely taken anything like a "sure-fire" RB, yet it has worked out every time before.
- Regarding weight, size, build, style: it really doesn't matter. There are lots of ways to skin a cat, all that denver asks for is a one-cut runner. Certain builds and whatnot might help or hinder, but I think the playcalling evens things out. We all look at TD as the ideal ZB back, because of his tremendous success, but I firmly believe that replicating his build and style isn't the key to establishing another franchise running game in Denver. We need players with CJ's attitude who are willing to work their way to the top.
- To answer cynyc specifically: CJ isn't worth it because he is an upgrade over Andre Hall or even Selvin Young, nor because he has great traits for our scheme. Lots of backs have great traits for our scheme, and except for durability issues, most Broncos fans really want to see what Young/Hall can do in just their second year. CJ is worth it because he is an exponential upgrade of our return game, which wasn't just bad these last few years, it was the WORST. More on this point later.
- CJ can add about 10 lbs without affecting his speed, which he should do for durability reasons so that he can have a long, productive career (for a RB at any rate). If it was just for the scheme Guru would have taken Mendenhall (which he was this close to doing). Worst case scenario his godly speed is reduced to elite among men. No harm done.:)
- I get it, you don't like Marshall. Broncos fans have stars in our eyes, but we also know what we are looking at here: if he goes through next season as stupidly as he has gone through his offseason, Broncos fans will be right there with you. But frankly, we're too far into this to back out now. Regarding taking CJ, the only WRs worth considering do not possess anything that puts them head and shoulders above him. Bennett in my eyes is the closest, and a case could be made for Jordy, but again, both project more to possession/slot type guys, and both would be as much of a reach as CJ. I have advocated taking Bennett with #42 for a long time, and I think it can definitely help, but we have a chance to address one of the three most critical needs on this team with CJ, whereas Bennett is more of an insurance pick. When the dam is leaking this bad, you got to plug the holes before you can paint it.
- Denver would change the scheme to fit a player, though, as you say, not to the degree of fundamentally changing it, i.e. taking away the playaction. But we aren't worried about throwing to him out of the backfield. Young got a lot of reps lining up in 4 WR sets, Johnson would get even more, but all the same you sound like a Colts fan: throw the ball to the slot, throw the ball to WR, throw the ball to the TE, or the OL/FB, throw the ball to the RB. No, no, no. Hand the ball to the running back, hand the ball to the RB, hand the ball to the RB. :)
- This is the crux of it right here: ST is the least of our 3 most important concerns! In order of importance we need to: score in the redzone, stop the run, and fix the return game. CJ directly addresses one of these areas and indirectly addresses another, though I think it would take some time to get him involved on offense. And to be fair to our defense, they were playing waaaay outside of their comfort zone last year trying to adapt to Bates' run-contain defense. Just switching back to the zone-blitz should help tremendously. Other than that we had to address LB (done in FA with Boss and Niko) and DT. A draft day trade is in place for DT Dewayne Robertson (a second day pick, maybe two) and we need another solid 2 gapper, but at a fair price. We utilize a rotation so heavily that some of the guys who would be studs elsewhere would rarely see the field. Sims is an example. He is a big run clogger with pass rushing moves and tons of potential, but he is far from a sure thing. Addressing scoring in the redzone is a matter of henry being healthy (who knows until we know), trying to upgrade the line (very deep draft for that task), and improving our starting field position. We had a lot of 70 and 80 yard drives last year that sputtered when we got to the redzone, because our backs couldn't stay on their feet. Less touches will help and a better rotation will help. CJ helps on both counts.
by styg50 on
Apr 16, 2008 7:13 PM EDT
up
0 recs
Fine
I understand your POV though, but also understand that nothing you said changed my mind or justified the pick to the objective viewer. The Broncos have so many holes (WR, TE, O-line, DT, LB, Safety, Kicker, starting RB) that taking this guy now still makes no sense.
by BigBlueShoe on
Apr 16, 2008 9:54 PM EDT
up
0 recs
Then I will ask you...
If not CJ, who? Who will make the immediate impact CJ could at 42? Knowing what we know now. Knowing the Broncos signed 2 safeties and 2 wide receivers.
We are fine with you disagreeing. All good. But please don't speak in absolutes about a situation you know nothing about.
As for the Broncos trending, let's look at any other team in the 5-8 years after a Hall of Fame QB retired. Steelers in the 80's, 49'ers after Steve Young, Dolphins after Marino...How many games did they win? The Broncos have done pretty well, considering...
by TheSportsGuru on
Apr 17, 2008 1:07 PM EDT
up
0 recs
Styg answered most...
by TheSportsGuru on
Apr 17, 2008 1:09 PM EDT
up
0 recs
"It's not the real draft"
Chris Johnson (taken)
Trevor Laws (taken)
- Cliff Avril
- Matt Forte
- Xavier Adibi
- Lawrence Jackson (to play DT)
- Erin Henderson
- Fred Davis
- Geno Hayes
- John Carlson
by shake n bake on Apr 16, 2008 5:02 PM EDT 0 recs
As For Favre...
I told you, if he goes quietly into the night, I'll never mention his name. HE CAN'T DO IT....(you brought it up!)
by TheSportsGuru on Apr 17, 2008 1:18 PM EDT 0 recs








