From SI.com (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/lee_jenkins/11/26/mannings/index.html?eref=T1)

"Although hype is building mostly for a potential Giants-Jets Super Bowl, a Manning-Manning Super Bowl cannot be ruled out either.

Not only have the Colts won four games in a row, but also they've captured the unofficial title of "team no one in their right mind wants to face in the playoffs." The Colts have little chance of overtaking Tennessee in the AFC South, but at 7-4 they control their own destiny for a wild-card berth, owning tiebreakers over New England and Baltimore. As a wild-card entry, the Colts would almost certainly have to win three road games to get to the Super Bowl, but in the past four weeks they have already won at Pittsburgh, at San Diego and beaten the Patriots at home. The Titans and Jets, nouveau riche in the AFC, have nowhere near the postseason pedigree the Colts do.

The Colts have a history of peaking too early. In 2005, they started 13-0. In '06, they started 9-0. In '07, they started 7-0. But only one of those seasons ended at the Super Bowl. The Colts, by virtue of their torrid starts, were able to relax at the end of the regular season. Once they relaxed, their momentum waned. But this season, without their traditional margin for error, the Colts have proven they can play on an edge. Their four straight victories have come by a combined 16 points, proof that they are not as potent as they used to be, but perhaps more gutty. Against San Diego on Sunday night, the Colts offense practically refused to leave the field, converting an impressive 10 of 17 third downs and two fourth downs."

Now, as much as I'd like to win another Super Bowl, the hype on an all-Manning Super Bowl would completely bury the Pats 19-0 quest last season. You'd be talking about the last two Super Bowl MVPs, who also happen to be brothers.

Jenkins does make a good point though. The Jets and Titans aren't known for their playoff successes. Moreover, the Jets still have to win their division, which isn't assured yet. The Titans have the AFC South locked up, but that doesn't mean that Kerry Collins or Albert Haynesworth couldn't get hurt and set them adrift.

I'll tell you what though; whoever gets that 5th AFC seed is going to be greatful for a trip to Denver instead of New York or Pittsburgh.

Now that the Colts are finally playing Colts football, we have to ask ourselves whether or not they can catch the Tennessee Titans and claim another AFC South Championship.

As of today, the Titans are 5-0, 2-0 in Divisional play. The Colts are 3-2, at 1-1 in Divisional play. Here are their schedules:

Titans
@KC
Indy
Packers
@ Chicago
@ Jax
Jets
@ Lions
@ Browns
@ Texans
Steelers
@ Indy

Colts
@ Packers
@ Titans
Patriots
@ Steelers
Texans
@ Chargers
@ Browns
Bengals
Lions
@ Jags
Titans

The Titans have 7 away games remaining, including trips to all three AFC South teams.

The Colts have 6 away games, with 2 trips to the rest of the AFC South.

Realistically, I don't believe that either team will beat the Steelers. I could be wrong, and I hope I am, but I don't see it happening. I could see the Titans losing to the Jets, and the Colts losing to the Chargers.

The key for the Colts is to beat the Titans twice and run the table on the rest of the division, something they should easily be able to do. I'm predicting 12-4 records for both teams, with the Titans finishing in second with a 5-1 Divisional record and an 8-4 AFC Record, and the Colts finishing with a 5-1 Divisional record and a 9-3 AFC Record.

This assumes no catastrophic injuries for either team (Haynesworth for the Titans, Manning for the Colts), and that the Titans don't put Vince Young back in. If the Titans put VY back in, then pencil them in for 10-6 and missing the playoffs.

Thoughts?

I was thinking about this earlier, and honestly no matter how the Pats' season plays out, it's good for us.

There are two possible outcomes: either the Pats stink up the joint, or they go all the way. By all the way, I mean playoffs or better.

IF THE PATS GO ALL THE WAY:
Then Brady is just an above average QB that benefits greatly from the system he's in, and Belichick is a genius.

IF THE PATS STINK UP THE JOINT:
Then all of Belichick's success is due to having one of the best QBs ever on his team, and Brady becomes the 1a to Manning's 1b.

Let's remember that prior to Brady, Belichick had stunk up the joint in Cleveland.

No matter what, we win, because one of these guys will end up looking much worse than they do now after the season.

I was intrigued by the Favre fellating as of late, so I decided to figure out where Manning will stand at a hypothetical retirement.

I did basic stats interpretation: I used his career numbers thus far and averaged them out over the remainder of his career, which I assumed to be 8 years, as he's previously stated he'd like to retire after 18 years.

Wins: 201
This assumes the Colts win 12 games over the next 8 years. They could win more. It's the least scientific of the bunch.

TDs: 551
Assumes an average of 30.6 per year. 59 more than Favre has now. He'd need two or three more seasons to put it comfortably out of reach.

Yards: 74,656
It's about 14,000 more yards than Favre has now. He'd need another 3.5 years to put it out of reach.

INTs: 275
Favre will probably keep this one. he's thrown 288.

Games Started: 288
Manning would need 6 more years to beat Favre's games started total. Unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility, and well within his 8 years remaining.

At retirement, Manning would have the #1 spot on all 4 major QB records. It's remarkable; we're literally watching history being made.

From Peter King's MMQB on SI.com - 

"4. I think the worst-kept secret in the NFL is that Indianapolis will get the 2012 Super Bowl when owners meet in Atlanta this week. Indy deserves it. The city lost the 2011 game to Dallas, 17 votes to 15, and there's always been a strong feeling toward new stadiums in cities that have enough hotel rooms and are weatherproof. All domed stadiums in northern cities eventually get one Super Bowl. It happened at the Metrodome, the Silverdome and Ford Field, and the Colts are in line to get the first one ever played in Indiana."

From the always popular Paul "Fitzy" Fitzgerald:
http://townienews.com/

The "Seyton Manning" t-shirt!

Any chance someone with Photoshop can do something with this?

We really need a counterpart to this guy.

"How the f*&k did we lose to Peyton Manning's retarded younger brother?"

Someone should bring Archie out of retirement, just so he can beat the Patriots too.

From this morning's MMQB:

"If you give out the report cards the day after the draft, it's completely devoid of reason. How can you possibly give a student a grade the day he is admitted to college and enrolls in class? Draft report cards are the same thing. I used to get mad at those things, but now I say, 'Fine. Give us a C every year, and we'll just keep making the playoffs.' ''

--Indianapolis GM Bill Polian.

I loved that last line. "Ho hum, the Colts have another great draft, let's give them a C." I'm willing to bet that most of the teams in the league would kill for our drafting success.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080408/SPORTS0101/804080345/1126

Apparently Jon Kitna, Detroit's starting QB, had one of his backups convinced he had been traded to the Colts as an April Fool's joke.

Personally, I'm outraged. They got this poor guy's hopes up that he'd be hanging out with guys that have recently won a Super Bowl, that will probably win 12+ games next season, and won't be drafting a receiver in the first round. Instead, he has to hang out with the Lions. Yeesh.

So, now that free agency has officially begun, lets talk some football. I'm going to start a regular series called "Ten Thoughts On...". Enjoy!

MonkeyBiz's Ten Thoughts On.... The opening hours of free agency.

First thought: The Jets are making a run at the Pats. Trading Vilma, nabbing Faneca, picking up Kris Jenkins. With a good draft, they might do it too.

Second thought: I almost feel bad for the Patriots. First off, you've given a fanbase unreal expectations after a perfect regular season. No matter what, they'll take a step backwards. They're still recovering from probably the most devastating loss in pro sports history. They could lose both starting cornerbacks. They already lost one. Most of the defense is so old they remember playing with leather helmets. They released their youngest (and best) linebacker. Stallworth, who saved their asses during the Colts game, is gone. Randy Moss hasn't signed and is looking elsewhere. Who is Brady throwing to? Kelly Washington, Jabar Gaffney, and Wes Welker? That's a nice trio, as long as you're not expecting to play anyone with decent corners. Oh wait, they have the easiest schedule in the league. Nevermind. Oh yeah, and getting dissed by Zach Thomas. Apparently the NFL revoked the Patriots' "annual Super Bowl contender" free agent discount card. Try signing Randy Moss for $3 million a year now!

Third thought: The Giants locked up their most important free agents: Tom Coughlin and Steve Spagnuolo. Good job, G-men.

Fourth Thought: Is there anyone that wants to play in the NFC East? The Cowboys, who are a mortal lock for a first or second round playoff exit, are still a dangerous regular season team. The Giants are the defending world champs and haven't lost anyone; Eli should continue to get better. The Eagles are upgrading across the board, and are a Randy Moss signing away from talking about a division title. The Redskins are in cap hell, but their owner has stopped handing out ridiculous contracts, so that's at least progress.

Fifth thought: I fully expect the Titans to drop below the Texans next season. I haven't seen anything that makes me think a) Vince Young will improve significantly, or b) the Texans will take a big step backwards.

Sixth thought: Cleveland locking up Derek Anderson was a nice move. He would have garnered a lot of cash from a team like Minnesota, which is pretty much the poster child for easily identifiable and fixable problems cough Tavaris Jackson! cough.

Seventh thought: Who do the Dolphins pick? Let's be honest: no one wants to shell out $30 million + to a rookie that's never played a snap in the NFL, so trading is out of the question. They've got the option of a franchise DE/OLB, a franchise LT, or a franchise RB who could turn out to be the next Travis Henry. My guess: Chris Long. If you're going to be in the same division as Tom Brady, you've got to find a way to get in his face and have him make bad decisions. It's kind of hard for a left tackle or running back to do that.

Eighth thought: Jerry Porter to the Jags? This is one of those eyebrow raising deals that makes you think "Are the Jags just hoping that being out of Oakland will make Jerry Porter good, or do they know something we don't?" I suppose bringing him in is better than wasting another first round pick on a seven foot receiver that can't catch.

Ninth thought: The Bengals are talking about bringing in Shaun Rogers. Yes, because bringing in another lazy malcontent with off-the-field issues is really the way to build a franchise. No wonder Chad Johnson wants to be traded.

Tenth thought: The the umpteenth consecutive year, the Colts do nothing in free agency. They have no first round pick, having traded it for SFs second rounder last year, which became Tony Ugoh. How long before someone in the league goes to the competition committee and demands the Colts should only get one top-ten first round pick because giving Bill Polian six picks in rounds 2 through 7 is a competitive disadvantage? Moreover, how long before someone picks up on the fact that the Colts free agency is their own players? If someone came up to you and said "Team X signed Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders, and Dallas Clark to long term deals in consecutive years." you'd probably go, "Wow, you could win at least three or four Super Bowls with that group!" Honestly, how many teams have a pair of franchise WRs, a franchise QB, a franchise SS, a franchise TE, and a franchise DE locked up long term? There isn't another team in the league better at drafting and cap management than the Colts.

And that's what I think.

Having been spending the last several days hanging around with Rich Eisen, Mike Mayock, Charles Rogers, etc., I've been privy to a lot of talk about draft strategy.

The general consensus seems to be that the safest overall bets are offensive linemen and pass rushers. QBs are iffy at best. Sometimes you get a Peyton Manning, sometimes you get a Ryan Leaf. But for the most part, you get someone inbetween. Most NFL teams aren't looking for someone inbetween, which is why most QBs drafted in the first round end up failing.

On the flip side of the coin, wide receivers seem to be the most prone to failure. The expectations are near that of QBs, so if they don't deliver, they're considered busts. Running backs seem to have more room, as the overall expectation difference between your standard first round back like Addai or Maroney isn't significantly different from someone in a later round. You expect them to be better, but not a lot better. Of course, you have superstars like Bush, Peterson, and McFadden, who have a different set of standards. But by and large, they're not considered game breakers without complimentary skill players.

Linebackers appear to be where there's the most variation between teams. Some teams, like the Colts, value smaller, quicker linebackers that can drop into coverage and keep pace with WRs, RBs, and TEs. Some teams like the Chargers and Pats look for LBs that can rush the passer or drop into coverage.

Anyone have thoughts?