This was a response from Phil B at the Indystar to a reader question/comment:

PHIL B: Colts coach Tony Dungy said the decision was made to start Charlie Johnson because they thought Johnson was sharper, and took more of the reps in practice than Ugoh, who played sparingly on special teams. We can't help but wonder if there's more to it. Dungy says it wasn't a demotion, but stay tuned. I mean, Ugoh never showed up on the injury report all last week, so we thought he would be ready to go.

Tony has not looked very sharp this year even when he has played.  There were lots of questions floating around about him in the offseason, and now it seems we are starting to see why.  The scouting report on Ugoh out of college was that he might not have totally been comitted to football.  Are we starting to see that?

OK, so I rewatched the whole game tonight, and played almost all of the defensive plays back in slow mo and most of the offensive breakdowns that way too.  Here are some conclusions.

The D-Line and more specifically the DT's were not the primary reasons for the massive yardage racked up by the Jags.  The primary and consitent failure came from the Colt LBers.  In fact I'm of the opinion that Clint Sessions is the second coming of Gilbert Gardner.  The LBers were consitently out of position, inpatient in maintaining their gaps, and time after time they missed tackles even when in position.  They were also the primary culprits in giving up passing yardage too.  Jennings is responsible the most of the other passing yardage given up and should be benched in favor of giving Hughes or someone else a chance.

Bob Sanders being healthy probably would have helped, as Bullitt was in position several times to save a play and failed to make the tackle, though his tackling wasn't even close to as poor as Sessions.  I can't stress enoug how bad Sessions was in this game.  I lost count on how many times he was out of position or just plain missed a tackle.

The Coaches, WRs, the O-Line, and Peyton can all equally share the blame for the offensive struggles.  Too many drops by the WRs though they were much better in the 2nd half.  The O-Line run blocked well (we were NEVER stopped on a running play).  We didn't have nearly enough Run balance (I still don't know who to blame the poor playing calling on Peyton or Coaches)  However the O-Line had WAY too many false starts and blocking mistakes, though they played better overall then they had the first 2 games.  Peyton was so very up and down.  Great plays one minute and horrible decisions and throws the next.  The first pick was not totally his fault, but the second was a horrible decision compounded by an even more horrible throw.  He had a lot of other throws that were somewhere between way off and slightly off target so definitely not a great day for Peyton but he did leave the comeback.  I'm still upset about the 2 passing play calls on 1st and 2nd and Goal on the final drive.  I think you have to calls runs/QB sneaks there to gain yardage and eat up clock/Jag timeouts.

I don't think you can really say the offense or defense was more at fault.  They both failed miserably.  The only two bright spots were the running game and the Special Teams (coverage more so then returns).

In commenting on Adrian Peterson in one of the fanposts:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb 
Looking at DVOA (though its early in the season so stats can get skewed) and Success rate you see that his Success Rate is not as high as his overall DVOA which tends to indicate that he gets more big runs but has a higher number o runs for ineffective yardage.  Which as stated can lead to more frequent 3rd and long situations.  Coupled wth a weak QB (Jackson) you get an inconsistent offense.

I realized that this brings up n interesting question.  As a matter of football strategy (NOT fantasy football): Would you rather have a Boom/Bust RB (one who can break long plays on a semi-regular basis but who also generates lots of low to no yardage running plays) or a "Boring/Consistent" RB who consistently generates 3-6 yard runs but rarely has low or negative running plays but also rarely if ever breaks long running plays.

I think this argument is greatly affected by consistency and strength of your QB (i.e. Jackson kills the Vikings because Peterson's Boom/Bust tendencies frequently means that somewhere in a drive they are likely to face 3rd and long which more dramatically increases Jackson's influence on success).

I think with a Peyton Manning a Boom/Bust RB is the best option because it puts the most pressure on the defense and you still have Manning to bail you out of 3rd and long when needed.

If you loved their Star Wars NFL predictions from last year, there is a good chance you'll love the LOST NFL predictions this year from the DS and DZ at 18to88.  Like them I'm an Uber Geek so I rolled around my office reading them.  I hope they are right on Jax, but I suspect it's wishful thinking brought on by hate and loathing for all things Jacksonville.

http://18to88.blogspot.com/ 

Did I miss something last year?  (From PK MMQB)

n. Great nugget by NFL Networker Adam Schefter last night on the Colts-Bills game: Last year, Marvin Harrison had the same bursa-sac surgery that Peyton Manning is recovering from now -- and Manning never talked to him about it or asked him about his experience with it.

I don't recall that Marvin ever had surgery on his knee.  Didn't they tell us last year that surgery wasn't warranted?  I thought it was a cartilage issue not bursa-sac issue.  I missed this "revelation" by Schefter evidently.  Did he quote "unamed sources" as to how he knew that 18 never talked to 88 about it, if it was in fact the same surgery/issue?

I'm not a Fantasy guy but saw this love for AG being one of the most "Underrated" players in the league (at least from a Fantasy Football perspective).  I agree with the Wes Welker comparison for 08' though I wish the rest of "Sports Nation" would get the message that the Harrison "legal" issues never materialized and never will, and his health doesn't seem to be an issue.

Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez
Here’s the 2008 version of Wes Welker. Like Welker, Gonzalez plays in a lethal passing offense and can operate quietly but effectively in the shadow of another highly regarded receiver who attracts a great deal of defensive attention (in Welker’s case, Randy Moss; in Gonzalez’s case, Reggie Wayne). Expect Gonzalez to put up good numbers even if teammate Marvin Harrison is around all season. But if injuries or legal problems take Harrison out of action, Gonzalez’s numbers could go through the roof.

On a different but I guess "fantay related" note: It will be interesting this year to see if the Colts look at using Mike Hart in the redzone this year.  His heart and determination could really be helpful near the goal line and would save wear and tear on Joe.  The Colts generally have used their top 2 backs exclusively unless an injury was in play.  Could Hart's ability get them to reach further down the depth chart and make them a 1-2-3 back team.  Talk about having some fresh legs in teh backfield come playoff time...

Sounds like the Pats have some concerns on the O-Line as well...

Mike Reiss has identified the offensive line as the big issue coming out of camp, and it’s hard to argue with him. Stephen Neal is on the PUP after a knee injury, and Matt Light might as well be, at least so far. That leaves RG Billy Yates and RT Wesley Britt (Nick Kaczur has moved to LT) working with the first group, and I suppose we should be thankful for the time they’ve had in the Patriots system. Even with their relative inexperience, that foundation gives the team the best chance to move forward without noticeable disruption.

Full Link

Thought this link had some interesting assessments on the status of the Jags.

The pluses were probably what we already knew but I thought the "minuses" were worth noting.  It sounds like the Jags might have some issues on the O-line...

MINUSES

THE OFFENSIVE LINE There's an old adage that offensive linemen are only noticed when things go wrong, and they were noticed too much in the first week of camp. Center Brad Meester is out for 8-to-10 weeks after biceps surgery, so another injury to the unit could be devastating. Vince Manuwai didn't make it at right guard and was moved back to the left side. Richard Collier hasn't provided much of a challenge to left tackle Khalif Barnes, about whom there are questions. This group is the team's biggest worry.

THE WIDE RECEIVERS Jerry Porter will miss camp because of a hamstring injury, Reggie Williams had knee surgery, Mike Walker is only practicing once per day, and Troy Williamson must prove he can catch the ball during the regular season. However, the Jaguars proved last season that they could make the playoffs with a pedestrian receiving corps, and they should do it again.

THE HOLDOUT Derrick Harvey's holdout isn't expected to end any time soon because both sides are convinced their contract negotiating positions are right, so it's difficult to split the difference. It remains to be seen whether a long holdout will impede Harvey's rookie season, but don't look for the team to trade into the top 10 of the draft again any time soon.

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