PPYA Rankings went 10-4 for Week 5 games, an improvement over last week's 9-5 and the previous week's 8-6. 37-21 for weeks 2-4 (no week 1 as there was no stats to rank on before then). That's .638, or #12 on King Kaufman's Panel of Experts standings.
A few suprises this week, but nothing quite as much as KC last week. The Kansas City top 10 was somewhat validated by the fact that Football Outsiders had the same thing happen last week - a blowout skewed thehm into their top ten as well. Like them, I predict we'll see their ranking adjust over time to a more realistic rank. This week they are down to #11.
So on to the rankings!
StampedeBlue.com PPYA Power Ranking, Week 4
| PPYA Power Rank (last week) |
Team | OPAPY | OPSPY | PPYA |
| 1 (1) | Chicago | 0.02558 | 0.08418 | 0.0586 |
| 2 (2) | San Diego | 0.04156 | 0.0734 | 0.03184 |
| 3 (14) | Jacksonville | 0.04836 | 0.07445 | 0.02608 |
| 4 (8) | Philadelphia | 0.05075 | 0.06845 | 0.01771 |
| 5 (10) | New England | 0.04416 | 0.06176 | 0.0176 |
| 6 (6) | Cincinnati | 0.06163 | 0.0789 | 0.01728 |
| 7 (7) | Atlanta | 0.0278 | 0.04497 | 0.01718 |
| 8 (5) | Indianapolis | 0.05778 | 0.07223 | 0.01445 |
| 9 (3) | Baltimore | 0.04189 | 0.05605 | 0.01416 |
| 10 (15) | Denver | 0.0278 | 0.04086 | 0.01306 |
| 11 (9) | Kansas City | 0.05114 | 0.06171 | 0.01057 |
| 12 (4) | Dallas | 0.06357 | 0.07183 | 0.00826 |
| 13 (12) | St. Louis | 0.05861 | 0.06518 | 0.00657 |
| 14 (17) | New Orleans | 0.05621 | 0.06047 | 0.00426 |
| 15 (13) | Cleveland | 0.05791 | 0.06202 | 0.00411 |
| 16 (18) | Seattle | 0.06385 | 0.06678 | 0.00293 |
| 17 (19) | Carolina | 0.05576 | 0.05525 | -0.00051 |
| 18 (20) | Houston | 0.06494 | 0.06129 | -0.00365 |
| 19 (21) | Arizona | 0.06264 | 0.05636 | -0.00628 |
| 20 (26) | Detroit | 0.06796 | 0.05839 | -0.00956 |
| 21 (11) | Buffalo | 0.06307 | 0.05342 | -0.00965 |
| 22 (25) | Washington | 0.06647 | 0.05451 | -0.01195 |
| 23 (23) | Pittsburgh | 0.06274 | 0.0489 | -0.01385 |
| 24 (16) | New York (A) | 0.07233 | 0.05657 | -0.01576 |
| 25 (22) | Minnesota | 0.05955 | 0.04367 | -0.01588 |
| 26 (30) | San Francisco | 0.07653 | 0.06037 | -0.01616 |
| 27 (27) | Tampa Bay | 0.05999 | 0.04332 | -0.01667 |
| 28 (28) | New York (N) | 0.0745 | 0.05553 | -0.01897 |
| 29 (24) | Miami | 0.06449 | 0.04293 | -0.02156 |
| 30 (29) | Green Bay | 0.06984 | 0.04748 | -0.02236 |
| 31 (31) | Tennessee | 0.06884 | 0.04386 | -0.02498 |
| 32 (32) | Oakland | 0.08904 | 0.04552 | -0.04353 |
Biggest Downgrade: Buffalo, -10 spots. Getting spanked by the Bears will do that to a team.
Highest Ranked Loser (current ranking): #9 Baltimore lost to #10 Denver
Lowest Ranked Winner (current ranking): #28 New York Giants beat #22 Washington. An interesting fluke from that game - despite losing, Washington moved UP 3 spots from #25 the previous week. Would anyone who watched that game be able to shed some light on why that might be?
Negative Line: #16 Seattle (0.00293), #17 Carolina (-0.00051)
These results show that I definitely need to work in schedule strength for next season.
I'm going to start leaving out Offensive and Defensive rankings, as the more I think about it the more they are really interdependant the way I calculate them. A team with a great defense that leaves their offense with good field position will skew that offense better (and vice versa). But when you take the aggregate of offense and defense to get PPYA, that all balances out.
Week 6 Games:
#28 New York Giants @ #7 Atlanta
#18 Houston @ #12 Dallas
#21 Buffalo @ #20 Detroit
#16 Seattle @ #13 St. Louis
#4 Philadelphia @ #14 New Orleans
#6 Cincinnati @ #27 Tampa Bay
#31 Tennessee @ #22 Washington
#17 Carolina @ #9 Baltimore
#29 Miami @ #24 New York Jets
#11 Kansas City @ #23 Pittsburgh
#2 San Diego @ #26 San Francisco
#31 Oakland @ #10 Denver
#1 Chicago @ #19 Arizona
I'll post in the comments how the rankings are doing in the games. let's see if the 1 game improvment each week can hold up and it'll go to 11-3 next week.
Update:So much for 11-3. PPYA went 6-7 this week, but it was a week full of upsets for everyone and it did predict the Detroit victory over Buffalo.
