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Week 11 Wildcard Positioning Guide

With the Colts 4 games back with 7 to play the door to the AFC South title is almost shut. Fortunately, the Colts are now well positioned for a wildcard spot. With both the Jets and Ravens a game up on them and neither on the remaining schedule the Colts need just a touch of outside help, here are the games where they can get it.

Jets@Patriots: both teams are one game up on the Colts and the loser will drop below the Colts on tiebreakers if the Colts win. The difference is the Pats would be behind the Colts on the head-to-head tiebreaker which they are guaranteed to keep, the Jets would be behind on conference record tiebreaker which could, but is unlikely to change (Jets would be 4-4, Colts 5-2 in the AFC). I'd lean Pats just because I think they are the most likely to hold on to the AFC East if the take control of it with the win.

Broncos@Falcons: Normally AFCvNFC is an easy call, but not this one. The Broncos are a game up on the Chargers with the Chiefs and Raiders dead in the water. The Colts play the Chargers but not the Broncos. Which outcome favors the Colts depends on whether the Colts beat the Chargers week 12. If the Colts lose then the Chargers winning the West would help the Colts by keeping a team with the tiebreaker over them out of wildcard competition. If the Colts beat the Chargers then they want the Chargers competing with them for a wildcard because the Colts would have the tiebreaker. I'm not confidant the Broncos can hold off the Chargers, but I have to bank on the scenario where the Colts win. Broncos.

Ravens@Giants: The Colts now have head to head wins over both AFC North contenders, so we can root for both of them to lose. Giants

Raiders@Dolphins: The Raiders are dead and the Dolphins are behind the Colts on tiebreakers. Easy call to root for the upset, Raiders

Titans@Jags: Give up on the AFC South and solidify the WC chances. Or cut down the gap by a game, while reviving a rival who is still on the remaining schedule. 3 games back with 6 to play is still on long shot, so I'm rooting for the Jags to be dead and buried by the time they meet the Colts again week 16. Titans

Chargers@Steelers: another one that depends on how the AFC West breaks, but I think the Steelers will beat out the Ravens so I'll lean Steelers

Browns@ BIlls: Bills are the other team trailing the Colts on tiebreakers, so it's an easy call to root for the currently less dangerous Browns to pick them off.