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How the Colts can win the AFC South

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It's still possible the the road is unlikely. Here are the scenarios.

  1. Colts win out, Titans lose 5+ of the remaining 7 games
  2. Colts win out, Titans lose to the Jags, Texans, Colts and one other team
  3. Colts win 6 of 7 (including Titans game), Titans lose 6+
  4. Colts win 5 of 7 (including Titans game), Titans lose out

That's it. The Colts can pull even to the Titans in the head to head and divison record tiebreakers, but the 3rd tiebreaker is record vs common opponents. Those common opponenets are the AFC and NFC Norths. The Colts dropped 3 of those games and the Titans have obviously yet to lose one. For that tiebreaker to matter the Titans must lose two in the division, for the Colts to even split that tiebreaker the Titans must lose 3 to the common opponents. That makes 5 losses and we go back to the above scenarios. The Colts can only win the tiebreakers if the Titans lose to the Jags and Texans in addition to losing to the Colts and one other team. Otherwise the Colts have to finish with a better record.

That was kind of depressing, but remember, if the Colts beat the Texans they will be in a wildcard spot (they'll pass the loser of Pats-Jets).